Post by Robert Waller on Aug 3, 2023 16:49:52 GMT
If you drive on the M1 through Derbyshire, for close to twenty miles you’ll be passing through the length of the Bolsover parliamentary constituency. The scenery is not spectacularly pleasant – this is not the Peak District National Park; that lies in the western half of the county – but it is attractive enough. Just over half way up (if you are travelling north), look to the east and there will be Bolsover Castle, on its dominant lofty eminence. The two versions of Hardwick Hall, medieval ruin and Elizabethan crystal palace, are in the seat too. At no point is it obvious that this part of England used to be - for one year short of half a century - one of Labour’s most renowned strongholds, the lair of the so-called Beast of Bolsover, the MP most known for his vocal and virulent anti-Tory interventions in the House of Commons: Dennis Skinner. It was thus one of the most prominent bricks in the so-called Red Wall that fell decisively to the Conservatives in the December 2019 general election.
Why was Bolsover so strongly partisan Labour? And why is it no longer? Is this a profound and long lasting psephological change, or a short lived reversal of character?
The reason it was so solidly ‘red’ from its creation in 1950 (as was its predecessor Clay Cross since 1922) lies beneath those green fields next to the motorway: this was the heart of the once extensive east Derbyshire coalfield. Skinner came from a long-standing mining family and had worked underground himself, before becoming the president of the Derbyshire region of the NUM at the age of 32. At the time of the publication of the first edition of the Almanac of British Politics in 1983 Bolsover was still the constituency in Britain with the highest proportion employed in coal mining. That year was sandwiched between the great and effective coal strikes of the 1970s and the even greater but far less successful one on 1984-85. It is hardly surprising that it returned a Labour majority of 14,000 even in Thatcher’s greatest landslide nationally. In the Bolsover council elections of that year (May 1983) 35 Labour members were returned, two Independents and no-one else. In 10 wards Labour were returned completely unopposed. There was a total of seven Conservative candidates, all of whom but one finished bottom of the poll in their wards.
By 2019 all the mines in the Bolsover seat were long closed. This is still a predominantly working class area: in the most recent available census it was in the top 4% of the 650 constituencies as far as proportion of ‘routine’ workers are concerned. But instead of the highly unionised and class aware coal miners, the typical large scale employment is in the huge warehouses such as the Sports Direct complex at Shirebrook, with its migrant workers from eastern Europe and zero hours contracts. There are extensive industrial and retail estates, such as at the Designer Outlet East Midlands near South Normanton. There is also a lot of newish and often relatively low-cost private housing, for example at Barlborough in the north of the seat. Evidence of the former coalfield has gradually disappeared beneath the landscaping and the re-purposing – and the political tradition seems to have been re-thought as well.
The Bolsover seat saw one of the biggest swings in the December 2019 election, 11.5% from Labour (who lost 16%) to the Conservatives. This was despite any residual personal vote for 87 year old Dennis Skinner, the member here since 1970, who did stand again, although ill health prevented active campaigning and his presence at the count and declaration. Most explanations of this apparent political earthquake have centred on Labour’s apparent reluctance to support the implementation of Brexit in the three years since the referendum (despite Skinner’s own lifelong left-wing Euroscepticism). It is true that Bolsover is estimated to have voted to Leave by just over 70%. If that is the case, then, as in other similar Tory gains in 2019, a reversal might be expected as the European obsession fades.
However there is evidence that there is in fact a long-term transformation which goes well beyond the Brexit issue. Labour’s share had been falling before 2016 – the 15% drop between 2005 and 2010, for example, cannot be explained away by the relatively minor boundary changes between those elections. Yes, UKIP took substantial shares (21% in 2015 being the highest), but when this faded it was the Conservatives who benefited, not Skinner. What is more, the 2019 swing was repeated in the May 2021 Derbyshire county council elections.
The Bolsover constituency consists of the whole of Bolsover local authority plus 15,000 voters in four wards of North East Derbyshire District. This amounts to a number of small towns or large villages, many formerly based on collieries, along both sides of the M1 corridor. Starting from the south, we find Pinxton, South Normanton (South Normo to its inhabitants), Blackwell, Tibshelf, Pilsley, Holmewood, Shirebrook, Bolsover itself, Clowne, Creswell (with its Crags containing late Pleistocene cave-art), Barlborough and Whitwell. All of these communities have populations between 3,000 and 13,000. This is emphatically not metropolitan Britain or city Britain. It is also not multi-ethnic. In 2021 Bolsover constituency was over 97% white, and though those born in the ‘new EU’ have increased in recent years the ;white British’ proportion was still 93.8%. In 2021 the Conservatives gained the following county divisions from Labour: Barlborough & Clowne (with a swing of 18.45% since 2017), South Normanton & Pinxton (10.0%), Sutton (14.15%), and Tibshelf (11.3%). Labour just held three county seats entirely within the current constituency boundaries, essentially those in Bolsover itself (narrowly) and Shirebrook. The Conservatives would have again led across the constituency.
In the latest local elections, in May 2023, however, Labour made 13 gains in the Bolsover council area, mainly from Independents but taking two from the Conservatives in Barlborough and one from the Liberal Democrats in Clowne East. However the Conservatives, who have never been much of a force in this district council, unlike the county, did actually increase their number by gaining from Independents in Bolsover South and Clowne West. They also retained their three in the Shirland ward in the North East Derbyshire council section, while Labour again made an advance at the expense of an Independent in Pilsley & Morton.
This suggests that the result in the next general election will be competitive. Although Labour are clearly advancing nationally and locally from their 2019 nadir and even from 2021, Mark Fletcher will have built up some incumbency votes and will not be facing the Skinner name, and already has a majority of over 5,000. The boundary changes proposed by the Commission and confirmed in their final report in June 2023 are minor and merely tidy up afterward boundaries have fallen out of line with that of the constituency. There has been talk that the fall in ‘shares in Boris’ might affect the so-called red wall seats most, but that seems doubtful. In fact, it is quite possible that Labour could become the largest party and form the next government without Bolsover or its ilk. There seems to be a long term shift from class voting cleavages to considerations of ethnicity, age, urban versus more rural, city vis-a-vis town, education and culture in general. Parallels with the USA must be to some extent fanciful, but when looking at the ex-coalfields in England, West Virginia somehow comes to mind – once one of the most Democratic states in the nation, absolutely not now. Could the beast of Bolsover in fact be likened to a dinosaur, or a resident of Creswell Crags? Maybe not, but (changing) time(s) will tell.
The Labour regain in July 2024 on a swing of 11.5% suggests that reports of extinction would be premature, and that Bolsover may now best be seen as a marginal - still a change from its historic nature.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 20.7% 221/575
Owner occupied 66.4% 278/575
Private rented 16.1% 380/575
Social rented 17.5% 210/575
White 97.4% 43/575
Black 0.5% 450/575
Asian 0.9% 539/575
Managerial & professional 25.2% 483/575
Routine & Semi-routine 33.5% 21/575
Degree level 22.2% 546/575
No qualifications 24.0% 67/575
Students 4.2% 544/575
General Election 2024: Bolsover
Labour Natalie Fleet 17,197 40.5 +4.3
Conservative Mark Fletcher 10,874 25.5 –22.1
Reform UK Robert Reaney 9,131 21.5 +12.9
Green David Kesteven 3,754 8.8 +7.2
Liberal Democrats David Hancock 1,478 3.5 –0.3
Lab Majority 6,323 14.9 N/A
Turnout 42,434 54.9 −6.2
Registered electors 77,334
Labour gain from Conservative
Swing 13.2 C to Lab
General Election 2019: Bolsover
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Mark Fletcher 21,791 47.4 +6.9
Labour Dennis Skinner 16,492 35.9 -16.0
Brexit Party Kevin Harper 4,151 9.0
Liberal Democrats David Hancock 1,759 3.8 +0.9
Green David Kesteven 758 1.7
Independent Ross Walker 517 1.1
Independent Natalie Hoy 470 1.0
C Majority 5,299 11.5
Turnout 45,938 61.1 -2.2
Conservative gain from Labour
Swing 11.5 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
The Bolsover seat consists of
99.7% of Bolsover
0.5% of North East Derbyshire
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/east-midlands/East%20Midlands_004_Bolsover_Portrait.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
Why was Bolsover so strongly partisan Labour? And why is it no longer? Is this a profound and long lasting psephological change, or a short lived reversal of character?
The reason it was so solidly ‘red’ from its creation in 1950 (as was its predecessor Clay Cross since 1922) lies beneath those green fields next to the motorway: this was the heart of the once extensive east Derbyshire coalfield. Skinner came from a long-standing mining family and had worked underground himself, before becoming the president of the Derbyshire region of the NUM at the age of 32. At the time of the publication of the first edition of the Almanac of British Politics in 1983 Bolsover was still the constituency in Britain with the highest proportion employed in coal mining. That year was sandwiched between the great and effective coal strikes of the 1970s and the even greater but far less successful one on 1984-85. It is hardly surprising that it returned a Labour majority of 14,000 even in Thatcher’s greatest landslide nationally. In the Bolsover council elections of that year (May 1983) 35 Labour members were returned, two Independents and no-one else. In 10 wards Labour were returned completely unopposed. There was a total of seven Conservative candidates, all of whom but one finished bottom of the poll in their wards.
By 2019 all the mines in the Bolsover seat were long closed. This is still a predominantly working class area: in the most recent available census it was in the top 4% of the 650 constituencies as far as proportion of ‘routine’ workers are concerned. But instead of the highly unionised and class aware coal miners, the typical large scale employment is in the huge warehouses such as the Sports Direct complex at Shirebrook, with its migrant workers from eastern Europe and zero hours contracts. There are extensive industrial and retail estates, such as at the Designer Outlet East Midlands near South Normanton. There is also a lot of newish and often relatively low-cost private housing, for example at Barlborough in the north of the seat. Evidence of the former coalfield has gradually disappeared beneath the landscaping and the re-purposing – and the political tradition seems to have been re-thought as well.
The Bolsover seat saw one of the biggest swings in the December 2019 election, 11.5% from Labour (who lost 16%) to the Conservatives. This was despite any residual personal vote for 87 year old Dennis Skinner, the member here since 1970, who did stand again, although ill health prevented active campaigning and his presence at the count and declaration. Most explanations of this apparent political earthquake have centred on Labour’s apparent reluctance to support the implementation of Brexit in the three years since the referendum (despite Skinner’s own lifelong left-wing Euroscepticism). It is true that Bolsover is estimated to have voted to Leave by just over 70%. If that is the case, then, as in other similar Tory gains in 2019, a reversal might be expected as the European obsession fades.
However there is evidence that there is in fact a long-term transformation which goes well beyond the Brexit issue. Labour’s share had been falling before 2016 – the 15% drop between 2005 and 2010, for example, cannot be explained away by the relatively minor boundary changes between those elections. Yes, UKIP took substantial shares (21% in 2015 being the highest), but when this faded it was the Conservatives who benefited, not Skinner. What is more, the 2019 swing was repeated in the May 2021 Derbyshire county council elections.
The Bolsover constituency consists of the whole of Bolsover local authority plus 15,000 voters in four wards of North East Derbyshire District. This amounts to a number of small towns or large villages, many formerly based on collieries, along both sides of the M1 corridor. Starting from the south, we find Pinxton, South Normanton (South Normo to its inhabitants), Blackwell, Tibshelf, Pilsley, Holmewood, Shirebrook, Bolsover itself, Clowne, Creswell (with its Crags containing late Pleistocene cave-art), Barlborough and Whitwell. All of these communities have populations between 3,000 and 13,000. This is emphatically not metropolitan Britain or city Britain. It is also not multi-ethnic. In 2021 Bolsover constituency was over 97% white, and though those born in the ‘new EU’ have increased in recent years the ;white British’ proportion was still 93.8%. In 2021 the Conservatives gained the following county divisions from Labour: Barlborough & Clowne (with a swing of 18.45% since 2017), South Normanton & Pinxton (10.0%), Sutton (14.15%), and Tibshelf (11.3%). Labour just held three county seats entirely within the current constituency boundaries, essentially those in Bolsover itself (narrowly) and Shirebrook. The Conservatives would have again led across the constituency.
In the latest local elections, in May 2023, however, Labour made 13 gains in the Bolsover council area, mainly from Independents but taking two from the Conservatives in Barlborough and one from the Liberal Democrats in Clowne East. However the Conservatives, who have never been much of a force in this district council, unlike the county, did actually increase their number by gaining from Independents in Bolsover South and Clowne West. They also retained their three in the Shirland ward in the North East Derbyshire council section, while Labour again made an advance at the expense of an Independent in Pilsley & Morton.
This suggests that the result in the next general election will be competitive. Although Labour are clearly advancing nationally and locally from their 2019 nadir and even from 2021, Mark Fletcher will have built up some incumbency votes and will not be facing the Skinner name, and already has a majority of over 5,000. The boundary changes proposed by the Commission and confirmed in their final report in June 2023 are minor and merely tidy up afterward boundaries have fallen out of line with that of the constituency. There has been talk that the fall in ‘shares in Boris’ might affect the so-called red wall seats most, but that seems doubtful. In fact, it is quite possible that Labour could become the largest party and form the next government without Bolsover or its ilk. There seems to be a long term shift from class voting cleavages to considerations of ethnicity, age, urban versus more rural, city vis-a-vis town, education and culture in general. Parallels with the USA must be to some extent fanciful, but when looking at the ex-coalfields in England, West Virginia somehow comes to mind – once one of the most Democratic states in the nation, absolutely not now. Could the beast of Bolsover in fact be likened to a dinosaur, or a resident of Creswell Crags? Maybe not, but (changing) time(s) will tell.
The Labour regain in July 2024 on a swing of 11.5% suggests that reports of extinction would be premature, and that Bolsover may now best be seen as a marginal - still a change from its historic nature.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 20.7% 221/575
Owner occupied 66.4% 278/575
Private rented 16.1% 380/575
Social rented 17.5% 210/575
White 97.4% 43/575
Black 0.5% 450/575
Asian 0.9% 539/575
Managerial & professional 25.2% 483/575
Routine & Semi-routine 33.5% 21/575
Degree level 22.2% 546/575
No qualifications 24.0% 67/575
Students 4.2% 544/575
General Election 2024: Bolsover
Labour Natalie Fleet 17,197 40.5 +4.3
Conservative Mark Fletcher 10,874 25.5 –22.1
Reform UK Robert Reaney 9,131 21.5 +12.9
Green David Kesteven 3,754 8.8 +7.2
Liberal Democrats David Hancock 1,478 3.5 –0.3
Lab Majority 6,323 14.9 N/A
Turnout 42,434 54.9 −6.2
Registered electors 77,334
Labour gain from Conservative
Swing 13.2 C to Lab
General Election 2019: Bolsover
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Mark Fletcher 21,791 47.4 +6.9
Labour Dennis Skinner 16,492 35.9 -16.0
Brexit Party Kevin Harper 4,151 9.0
Liberal Democrats David Hancock 1,759 3.8 +0.9
Green David Kesteven 758 1.7
Independent Ross Walker 517 1.1
Independent Natalie Hoy 470 1.0
C Majority 5,299 11.5
Turnout 45,938 61.1 -2.2
Conservative gain from Labour
Swing 11.5 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
The Bolsover seat consists of
99.7% of Bolsover
0.5% of North East Derbyshire
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/east-midlands/East%20Midlands_004_Bolsover_Portrait.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
| Con | 21792 | 47.7% |
| Lab | 16519 | 36.2% |
| Brexit | 3920 | 8.6% |
| LD | 1741 | 3.8% |
| Green | 717 | 1.6% |
| Ind | 517 | 1.1% |
| Ind | 470 | 1.0% |
| Con Majority | 5273 | 11.5% |