Post by Robert Waller on Aug 2, 2023 16:52:24 GMT
In the past, the boundaries of the Newark constituency in Nottinghamshire have, by stages, been modified with the effect of favouring the Conservative party. The seat of this name was held by Labour from 1950 until 1979, but that was largely because in then included most of the late-developed Dukeries coalfield, opened up in the 1920s , with the large planned ‘pit villages’ such as New Ollerton, Edwinstowe and Blidworth. These were removed on the creation of Sherwood as an extra Nottinghamshire constituency in 1983. However the Newark seat did include the marginal town of (East) Retford from 1983 to 2010, and they were able to regain it in the 1997 Blair / New Labour landslide, before suffering an aberrantly poor result in 2001 after the single-term MP Fiona Jones had run into personal troubles. In 2010 Retford was returned to Bassetlaw, leaving none of the elements of the seat outside the town of Newark favourable to Labour. The latest changes do not continue this historical pro-Conservative trend, but they far from significantly reverse it.
In the Boundary Commission's proposals in its '2023 review', there is relatively little drama affecting the Nottinghamshire section of the East Midlands regional report, as the county is quite close to the requirements to retain its current 11 seats, its entitlement being 11.22 quotas. As a result, the changes to Newark are fairly minor: the existing constituency (2019 electorate within quota at 75,855) is expanded northwards to include two additional District of Bassetlaw wards: Clayworth and Sturton, with about 3,400 voters between them. In 2023 Conservatives regained Clayworth (which also includes the small villages of Wiseton, Hayton, Clarborough and Welham) from an Independent wile Labour did not stand, bit in another straight fight Labour beat the Tory by 78% to 22% in Sturton, which is centred in Sturton-le-Steeple but also covers Bole, North Wheatley and North Leverton with Habblesthorpe. This may well have been a personal triumph for the Labour incumbent councillor James Naish, as he had gained it from the Tories only in 2019 with a share increase of over 40% and this result represented a further swing of over 15%
(ward boundary maps included here: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Bassetlaw_District_Council_election
Meanwhile, at the other (south west) end of the Newark constituency, a similar number of electors are moved into the renamed Sherwood Forest seat, principally in the large and affluent Nottingham commuter village of Lowdham but also because of ward boundary redrawing in Dover Beck ward around the smaller community of Thurgarton, which like Lowdham has a station on the Lincoln-Newark-Nottingham railway. Both these wards retained Conservative councillors in May 2023 on Newark & Sherwood district council, though Labour advanced from 23% in 2019 to 29% in Dover Beck and from 12% to 38% in Lowdham (albeit with Greens and Liberal Democrats standing down this time).
democracy.newark-sherwooddc.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=16&V=0&RPID=4562753
Overall, though, while slightly favourable to Labour the changes will however have a negligible effect on Robert Jenrick's very safe Tory seat of Newark , where his majority was nearly 22,000 requiring a negative swing of almost 20% on 2019. Jenrick was in the Cabinet as Secretary of State for Housing, Communities and Local Government between 2019 and 2021, and has subsequently returned to government at the lower level of Minister of State in the Truss and Sunak administrations. However, at present even a somewhat shrunken decapitation seems unlikely in 2024.
The town of Newark-on-Trent itself, once known as the Key to the North standing as it does on a navigable major river and at the intersection of the Great North Road (now A1) and Roman Fosse way (A46), as well as on the main East Coast rail line, earned a reputation for cropping up in English history, as the site of the death of King John for example, and notably as a Royalist base in the Civil War. But despite its castle, old market square, fine town houses and streets named ‘gates’ as in York, Newark’s residential areas are more typified by large council estates at the north and south ends of the town in Bridge ward and Devon ward respectively, neither of them reliably Labour in May council contests; in May 2023 Independents retained both Bridge council seats and topped the poll in Devon, though Labour did gain one of the other two from the Conservative Bob Crowe (no, not that one). Its private housing is in the main not outstanding either, yet the town of Newark has probably consistently given the Conservatives a majority in general elections, though in 2023 Independents swept them away in their traditional strong wards of Beacon (climbing what by Newark standards is a notable hill) and Castle (central and south west Newark).
More Conservative still are up-market villages like Collingham, Winthorpe and Muskham to the north of Newark, and Bingham, well to the south and in the borough of Rushcliffe. A substantial population centre is Balderton, in effect a contiguous Newark suburb just to its south. These almost all remained loyal even in May 2023 (Bingham South went Independent). The small but attractive town of Southwell (some would call it a city, as its beautiful Minster has cathedral status) has considerable Liberal Democrat strength at least in council elections, though a lone Tory - Penny Rainbow, no doubt a colourful character - won one council seat out of three in both 2019 and 2023 on a personal vote. Overall the LDs did not achieve 10% in the 2019 general election, though, and are likely to remain in third place.
The A1 trunk road, passes through the heart of the constituency for some 20 miles, to some extent binding it together. However, only one party is on the road to success here. Newark has been trending rightwards, not least because here in east Nottinghamshire we are on the borders of strongly pro-Brexit Lincolnshire; UKIP’s Roger Helmer had finished second in the 2014 byelection, for example. Clearly ‘Leave’, 96% white, an older electorate than average, slightly below average in educational qualifications, over 71% owner occupied … all the ingredients are there to cook up into a nourishing broth for the Conservatives. On the other hand, this will not do them much good politically next time, as Newark is in no way the Key to the outcome of the election or to the door of no. 10 Downing Street.
What the strength of its Conservatism was, however, was a key to at least the opportunity for its MP to contend for the leadership of his party after the tsunami that swept away so many in July 2024. Robert Jenrick managed to negotiate a tricky way through the successive stages of the election amongst his parliamentary colleagues to reach the final two presented to the somewhat wider electorate of the party membership.
2021 Census, New Boundaries
Age 65+ 23.6% 117/575
Owner occupied 71.5% 141/575
Private rented 16.5% 362/575
Social rented 12.0% 428/575
White 96.1% 119/575
Black 0.6% 427/575
Asian 1.3% 482/575
Managerial & professional 35.5% 209/575
Routine & Semi-routine 23.9% 280/575
Degree level 32.7% 273/575
No qualifications 17.1% 327/575
Students 5.4% 317/575
General Election 2024: Newark
Conservative Robert Jenrick 20,968 39.2 −23.9
Labour Saj Ahmad 17,396 32.5 +8.6
Reform UK Robert Palmer 8,280 15.5 +15.2
Liberal Democrats David Watts 3,026 5.7 −3.9
Green Michael Ackroyd 2,345 4.4 +1.3
Ind. Network Adrian Amer 809 1.5 N/A
Independent Lyn Galbraith 329 0.6 N/A
English Democrat Matthew Darrington 156 0.3 N/A
Workers Party Collan Siddique 150 0.3 N/A
C Majority 3,572 6.7 -33.1
Turnout 53,459 67.0 -5.2
Registered electors 80,028
Conservative hold
Swing 16.6 C to Lab
General Election 2019: Newark
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Robert Jenrick 34,660 63.3 +0.6
Labour James Baggaley 12,844 23.5 -6.2
Liberal Democrats David Watts 5,308 9.7 +4.6
Green Jay Henderson 1,950 3.6 New
C Majority 21,816 39.8 +6.8
2019 electorate 75,855
Turnout 54,762 72.2 -0.7
Conservative hold
Swing 3.4 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
The redrawn seat consists of
93.8% of Newark
4.3% of Bassetlaw
1.5% of Rushcliffe
1.2% of Sherwood
Boundary Commission map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/east-midlands/East%20Midlands_031_Newark_Portrait.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
In the Boundary Commission's proposals in its '2023 review', there is relatively little drama affecting the Nottinghamshire section of the East Midlands regional report, as the county is quite close to the requirements to retain its current 11 seats, its entitlement being 11.22 quotas. As a result, the changes to Newark are fairly minor: the existing constituency (2019 electorate within quota at 75,855) is expanded northwards to include two additional District of Bassetlaw wards: Clayworth and Sturton, with about 3,400 voters between them. In 2023 Conservatives regained Clayworth (which also includes the small villages of Wiseton, Hayton, Clarborough and Welham) from an Independent wile Labour did not stand, bit in another straight fight Labour beat the Tory by 78% to 22% in Sturton, which is centred in Sturton-le-Steeple but also covers Bole, North Wheatley and North Leverton with Habblesthorpe. This may well have been a personal triumph for the Labour incumbent councillor James Naish, as he had gained it from the Tories only in 2019 with a share increase of over 40% and this result represented a further swing of over 15%
(ward boundary maps included here: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Bassetlaw_District_Council_election
Meanwhile, at the other (south west) end of the Newark constituency, a similar number of electors are moved into the renamed Sherwood Forest seat, principally in the large and affluent Nottingham commuter village of Lowdham but also because of ward boundary redrawing in Dover Beck ward around the smaller community of Thurgarton, which like Lowdham has a station on the Lincoln-Newark-Nottingham railway. Both these wards retained Conservative councillors in May 2023 on Newark & Sherwood district council, though Labour advanced from 23% in 2019 to 29% in Dover Beck and from 12% to 38% in Lowdham (albeit with Greens and Liberal Democrats standing down this time).
democracy.newark-sherwooddc.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=16&V=0&RPID=4562753
Overall, though, while slightly favourable to Labour the changes will however have a negligible effect on Robert Jenrick's very safe Tory seat of Newark , where his majority was nearly 22,000 requiring a negative swing of almost 20% on 2019. Jenrick was in the Cabinet as Secretary of State for Housing, Communities and Local Government between 2019 and 2021, and has subsequently returned to government at the lower level of Minister of State in the Truss and Sunak administrations. However, at present even a somewhat shrunken decapitation seems unlikely in 2024.
The town of Newark-on-Trent itself, once known as the Key to the North standing as it does on a navigable major river and at the intersection of the Great North Road (now A1) and Roman Fosse way (A46), as well as on the main East Coast rail line, earned a reputation for cropping up in English history, as the site of the death of King John for example, and notably as a Royalist base in the Civil War. But despite its castle, old market square, fine town houses and streets named ‘gates’ as in York, Newark’s residential areas are more typified by large council estates at the north and south ends of the town in Bridge ward and Devon ward respectively, neither of them reliably Labour in May council contests; in May 2023 Independents retained both Bridge council seats and topped the poll in Devon, though Labour did gain one of the other two from the Conservative Bob Crowe (no, not that one). Its private housing is in the main not outstanding either, yet the town of Newark has probably consistently given the Conservatives a majority in general elections, though in 2023 Independents swept them away in their traditional strong wards of Beacon (climbing what by Newark standards is a notable hill) and Castle (central and south west Newark).
More Conservative still are up-market villages like Collingham, Winthorpe and Muskham to the north of Newark, and Bingham, well to the south and in the borough of Rushcliffe. A substantial population centre is Balderton, in effect a contiguous Newark suburb just to its south. These almost all remained loyal even in May 2023 (Bingham South went Independent). The small but attractive town of Southwell (some would call it a city, as its beautiful Minster has cathedral status) has considerable Liberal Democrat strength at least in council elections, though a lone Tory - Penny Rainbow, no doubt a colourful character - won one council seat out of three in both 2019 and 2023 on a personal vote. Overall the LDs did not achieve 10% in the 2019 general election, though, and are likely to remain in third place.
The A1 trunk road, passes through the heart of the constituency for some 20 miles, to some extent binding it together. However, only one party is on the road to success here. Newark has been trending rightwards, not least because here in east Nottinghamshire we are on the borders of strongly pro-Brexit Lincolnshire; UKIP’s Roger Helmer had finished second in the 2014 byelection, for example. Clearly ‘Leave’, 96% white, an older electorate than average, slightly below average in educational qualifications, over 71% owner occupied … all the ingredients are there to cook up into a nourishing broth for the Conservatives. On the other hand, this will not do them much good politically next time, as Newark is in no way the Key to the outcome of the election or to the door of no. 10 Downing Street.
What the strength of its Conservatism was, however, was a key to at least the opportunity for its MP to contend for the leadership of his party after the tsunami that swept away so many in July 2024. Robert Jenrick managed to negotiate a tricky way through the successive stages of the election amongst his parliamentary colleagues to reach the final two presented to the somewhat wider electorate of the party membership.
2021 Census, New Boundaries
Age 65+ 23.6% 117/575
Owner occupied 71.5% 141/575
Private rented 16.5% 362/575
Social rented 12.0% 428/575
White 96.1% 119/575
Black 0.6% 427/575
Asian 1.3% 482/575
Managerial & professional 35.5% 209/575
Routine & Semi-routine 23.9% 280/575
Degree level 32.7% 273/575
No qualifications 17.1% 327/575
Students 5.4% 317/575
General Election 2024: Newark
Conservative Robert Jenrick 20,968 39.2 −23.9
Labour Saj Ahmad 17,396 32.5 +8.6
Reform UK Robert Palmer 8,280 15.5 +15.2
Liberal Democrats David Watts 3,026 5.7 −3.9
Green Michael Ackroyd 2,345 4.4 +1.3
Ind. Network Adrian Amer 809 1.5 N/A
Independent Lyn Galbraith 329 0.6 N/A
English Democrat Matthew Darrington 156 0.3 N/A
Workers Party Collan Siddique 150 0.3 N/A
C Majority 3,572 6.7 -33.1
Turnout 53,459 67.0 -5.2
Registered electors 80,028
Conservative hold
Swing 16.6 C to Lab
General Election 2019: Newark
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Robert Jenrick 34,660 63.3 +0.6
Labour James Baggaley 12,844 23.5 -6.2
Liberal Democrats David Watts 5,308 9.7 +4.6
Green Jay Henderson 1,950 3.6 New
C Majority 21,816 39.8 +6.8
2019 electorate 75,855
Turnout 54,762 72.2 -0.7
Conservative hold
Swing 3.4 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
The redrawn seat consists of
93.8% of Newark
4.3% of Bassetlaw
1.5% of Rushcliffe
1.2% of Sherwood
Boundary Commission map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/east-midlands/East%20Midlands_031_Newark_Portrait.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
| Con | 34935 | 63.1% |
| Lab | 13238 | 23.9% |
| LD | 5298 | 9.6% |
| Green | 1723 | 3.1% |
| Brexit | 193 | 0.4% |
| | ||
| Con Majority | 21697 | 39.2% |