Local Council by-elections 24th August 2023

[andrewteale]

The BBC have some news from Bishopston:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-66599069

[carolus]

Bristol, Green hold

[Pete Whitehead]

Aug 24, 2023 11:19:54 GMT iang said:

We held it once, in fact at one point it was Lorely Burt's ward, before she went to Solihull. But that was a long time back, and we were on the decline even before the Coalition years. We are fighting a proper campaign and I didn't see any sign of Tory literature when I was over there, but that's no proof of inactivity. Be surprised if the result isn't as speculated, but would expect some increase in our vote

oh..

[michaelarden]

[Sibboleth]

Well, mentioning in a positive tone another town nearby in a low-turnout poll in Dudley proper was always asking for trouble.

[manchesterman]

Loving that the LD candidate was..err.. Johnny Cash!

[michaelarden]

Aug 25, 2023 0:04:36 GMT manchesterman said:

Loving that the LD candidate was..err.. Johnny Cash!

The man in orange presumably.

[Deleted]

A bit meh. Labour will be pleased - underwhelming GRN %.

[iang]

Aug 24, 2023 23:16:55 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Aug 24, 2023 11:19:54 GMT iang said:

We held it once, in fact at one point it was Lorely Burt's ward, before she went to Solihull. But that was a long time back, and we were on the decline even before the Coalition years. We are fighting a proper campaign and I didn't see any sign of Tory literature when I was over there, but that's no proof of inactivity. Be surprised if the result isn't as speculated, but would expect some increase in our vote

oh..

Indeed. Still, the exercise was good...

[andrewp]

Aug 24, 2023 22:39:01 GMT yellowperil said:

Aug 24, 2023 22:24:24 GMT iang said:

And Green 48 if I heard correctly

You may well have done ( wasn't the sound diabolical even by the standards of these things?) Delighted of course but really messed up on my prediction thing as the green got about as many votes as I had them down for a percentage!I had thought this was a big opportunity for either greens or lib dem, depending on who turned up. I went for greens as I thought they were better placed  and were campaigning, but I had toyed with the idea of going for the Lib Dems, who are on something of a roll this August.

Yes I thought one of them had a big opportunity but I found absolutely nothing on line from the Lib Dem’s and a bit more from the Greens. It was one of those where my initial number for each party added up to about 80% but someone had to get the votes!

[andrewp]

Changes in vote share

Bristol ( from 2021)

Green -3.2
Lab +10.6
LD -5.5
Con -3
TUSC. new

Dudley ( from 2023)

Lab -3.6
Con +0.6
Ind. new
Green. new
LD -3.7

IOW ( from 2021)

LD. new
Con -2.5
Vectis -27,4
Green -8.7
No Ind as before

[YL]

Aug 25, 2023 3:38:54 GMT @weld said:

A bit meh. Labour will be pleased - underwhelming GRN %.

It's quite a good result for Labour. The Green share is only slightly down (and even less so if you use a method other than top vote, as there was a gap between the two Greens in 2021) and is well up on 2016 so I suspect they will be happy enough to have comfortably held the seat, but if Labour are doing that well then the Greens are going to find it hard to make many gains next May. They need 11 gains compared with the current position to take control, which always looked like a long shot.

[jamesdoyle]

GWBWI

LDm +47
Lab +45
Grn +27
Con -34

[YL]

Aug 25, 2023 7:42:22 GMT jamesdoyle said:

GWBWI

LDm +47
Lab +45
Grn +27
Con -34

Vectis?

[The Bishop]

Aug 25, 2023 7:49:46 GMT YL said:

Vectis?

Given how the byelection came about, it is not massively surprising that their vote was well down.

[london(ex)tory]

Aug 18, 2023 21:50:23 GMT andrewteale said:

Jul 31, 2023 20:35:00 GMT Tony Otim said:

DUDLEY MBC; St James’s (Con resigned)
Candidates:
KIEVER, Christian Devi (Green)
QADUS, Abdul (Liberal Democrat)
RANA, Rab (Conservative)
REID, Caroline Ann (Labour)
TASKER, Richard John (Independent)

2023: Lab 1209; Con 912; LD 124
2022: Con 1218; Lab 1211; LD 196
2021: Con 1471; Lab 1084; LD 179
2019: Lab 1904; Con 529; UKIP 388; Black Country 205; Grn 91; LD 86
2018: Lab 1265; Con 990; UKIP 244; LD 90
2016: Con 1370; UKIP 1125; Lab 963
Feb 16 by: Lab 847; UKIP 554; Con 427
2015: Lab 2641; UKIP 1642; Con 1398; Grn 186
2014: Lab 1217; UKIP 1183; Con 673; Grn 124
2012: Lab 1321; UKIP 1132; Con 396; Grn 109
2011: Lab 1755; Con 794; UKIP 554; LD 204
2010: Lab 2030; Con 1725; UKIP 1285; LD 853
2008: UKIP 994; Lab 776; LD 631; Con 625; BNP 311; Ind 142
2007: Lab 1078; UKIP 814; LD 594; BNP 548; Con 533
2006: Lab 895; LD 844; BNP 743; Con 586; UKIP 426
2004: LD 1246, 1234, 1225; Lab 1051, 956, 838; Con 849, 796, 749; Ind 323

Vacancy is for 2021-24 term. Rab Rana was the Conservative candidate in May, when Addul Qadus stood for the Lib Dems in Halesowen North and Richard Tasker stood in Coseley East for the Conservatives. Christian Kiever stood here for the Greens back in 2014.

Current Council: Con 43; Lab 26; Ind 1; 2 vacancies

I'm flattered that you got those results out of LEAP, but unfortunately that means that you copied a glitch in the database which was reported to me this week. The May 2016 result shown here is in fact the result for Sedgley ward; the correct May 2016 result for St James's ward should be Lab 1053 UKIP 734 C 546 Grn 81 Ind 51.

LEAP is an amazing resource and every single one of us on here should be very grateful to you for maintaining it.

[andrewp]

Excluding countermanded elections, up to 24th August, there have now been 41 ordinary by elections since May 4th.

The Conservatives have defended 11 - Held 3 and lost 8: 3 to the Greens, 3 to the Lib Dem’s and 2 to Labour( retention rate 27%) and have gained 2
Labour have defended 16- Held 9 and lost 7: 2 to the Conservatives, 3 to Independents, 1 to the Lib Dem’s and 1 to the Greens( retention rate 56%) and have gained 4
Lib Dem’s have defended 6: Held 5 and lost 1 to the Greens ( retention rate 83%) and have gained 5
Greens have defended 3: Held 2 and lost 1 to an Independent( retention rate 66%) and have gained 5
Independents have defended 1. Held 1. And have gained 4.
Residents have defended 1, held 1
SNP have defended 2. Lost 2- both to Labour ( retention rate 0%)
Vectis have defended 1, lost 1

Overall net changes

Con -6
Lab -3
LD +4
Green +4
Ind +4
SNP -2
Vectis -1

[Toylyyev]

Aug 25, 2023 4:08:07 GMT andrewp said:

Aug 24, 2023 22:39:01 GMT yellowperil said:

You may well have done ( wasn't the sound diabolical even by the standards of these things?) Delighted of course but really messed up on my prediction thing as the green got about as many votes as I had them down for a percentage!I had thought this was a big opportunity for either greens or lib dem, depending on who turned up. I went for greens as I thought they were better placed  and were campaigning, but I had toyed with the idea of going for the Lib Dems, who are on something of a roll this August.

Yes I thought one of them had a big opportunity but I found absolutely nothing on line from the Lib Dem’s_(my underscore) and a bit more from the Greens. It was one of those where my initial number for each party added up to about 80% but someone had to get the votes!

The Isle of Wight Liberal Democrats facebook page has their leaflet

www.facebook.com/p/Isle-of-Wight-Liberal-Democrats-100086185972316/

If memories serves these shall not be posted here. 

[pepperminttea]

Aug 24, 2023 23:33:02 GMT michaelarden said:

Lol at the Tory vote. This ward going into Bristol North West basically ends any hope the Tories had of regaining the seat, at least in the medium term as boundaries will obviously shift again. Lockleaze, whilst a poor area for them is nowhere near this terrible.