Post by yellowfox on Jul 31, 2023 19:54:43 GMT
East Kilbride and Strathaven takes in the bulk of the previous East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow seat, with this reduced area despite Scotland losing two constituencies highlighting the continued population growth in the area over the past 20 years. Removing Lesmahagow from the constituency will give elections more of an urban flavour and, at least notionally, be beneficial for the SNP.
In terms of the new boundaries, this seat will in broad terms be a recreation of the old East Kilbride constituency (which survived from creation in 1974 to 2005 with only minor alterations) that existed before a small portion of the Clydesdale constituency around Lesmahagow was added in 2005. Despite naming suggesting otherwise, Strathaven was always included within the East Kilbride constituency, with the longer name presumably to differentiate with the Holyrood constituency (which was contracted in 2011 to include solely the New Town, Strathaven being transferred to Clydesdale).
A brief electoral history seems at first glance rather beige as for Westminster, until 2015 the East Kilbride constituencies always returned a Labour MP - the Labour majority falling below 10% into marginal territory only twice, to 5.2% under an SNP challenge in October 1974 and to 9.2% with the SDP challenge of 1983. However, the Labour hegemony was never quite as secure as in many other areas of the Central Belt, however, with their share of the vote exceeding 50% only in 1979 and at New Labour's peak in 1997 and 2001.
The SNP did achieve an absolute majority of votes themselves when Lisa Cameron took the seat as part of their 2015 landslide and have held the seat since, their 2017 slide being largely cancelled out with a stronger performance in 2019. In saying that, the Nationalists did not achieve a rebound quite to the extent they may have expected, perhaps due to the relatively controversial nature of Dr Cameron’s candidacy. It is apparent that she is on the socially conservative side of her party, being one of just two SNP MPs to vote against the extension of abortion rights to Northern Ireland, this has lead to friction within the local party, Dr Cameron being the last of the SNP’s then 35 MPs to be confirmed as a PPC in 2019. The tensions within the local branch of her party over what may be described as social conservativism have only grown during her third term as an MP, particularly in response to her opposition to the Scottish Government's Gender Recognition Act.
It was however a statement of the SNP’s dominance in the seat that prior to the SNP's national woes in 2023 that her greatest (and in all probability only) challenge in 2024 would have been from within her own party. Labour will be looking to capitalise on the national environment, having consistently retained the silver medal here, although the slender 1.5% lead over the Tories in 2019 shows that other than the Cumbernauld-based constituency that this seat will have to be at the upper end of Labour's Lanarkshire expectations in 2024. For the Tories part, if they were to make any advance in Central Scotland it would likely be here as it is the least deprived constituency by far in the region (although SIMD figures must be caveated) however unlikely this seems in the short term.
It is worth noting that at least the 1970s, Scotland's new towns have provided higher than average SNP support generally this is said to be due to a lack of a monolithic labour voting history. Indeed, as Scotland’s answer to Milton Keynes, perhaps the dips in Labour support would have seen the constituency voting Conservative were it in England, certainly a move to a New Town 50 years ago was an aspirational move.
Breaking the new seat down at local politics, it covers the entirety of 6 electoral wards and nothing else: the 5 including East Kilbride alongside Avondale and Stonehouse.
In 2022, which must now be regarded as a good year for the SNP, they led in all wards although relatively narrowly in the rural Avondale and Stonehouse ward and East Kilbride West (which includes many recently built private housing estates) and more comfortably in the other 4 (South, Central South, Central North, and East). Local elections in Scotland, of course, use the preferential STV electoral system and this delivered the SNP only 8 councillors, short of a majority of the 18 covering the ward. Labour won 6 with 2 independents (former SNP and Labour councillors respectively) and the towns first Green councillor rounding out those elected. Conspicuous by their absence were the Conservatives, whose vote was down, and who were likely harmed by strong independent performances in EK West and Avondale and Stonehouse, nevertheless, this is the first time since at least the local government reorganisation of the 1970s that the Conservatives have lacked representation in the old East Kilbride district.
Historically, council elections have generally been a Labour-SNP battleground in recent years, despite the 2007 introduction of preferential voting. The Lib Dems gained their first ever councillor in the town through a defection in EK South in 2019 (that they came reasonably, but not incredibly, close to holding in 2022) and the Greens perform strongest in EK East, where they gained an SNP seat. The Lib Dem vote will be concentrated in Lindsayfield, another affluent housing estate built around the turn of the century, the rest of EK South being deprived in relative terms.
The local government reforms of 1974 introduced East Kilbride District Council which was controlled from that point through to 1980 by the SNP and from 1980 through to amalgamation into South Lanarkshire in 1995 by Labour. In both cases, first past the post ensured almost total domination of the council, except in 1974 when the SNP fell one seat short of a majority. Throughout this time both Avondale wards around the town of Strathaven consistently returned Tory candidates, however.
After these wards were subsumed into the unitary authority, SNP strength began to re-emerge in Hairmyres and Greenhills: now part of EK West and EK South respectively, and into this century their advance continued in areas now generally included within the EK East ward. With Hairmyres and Greenhills being generally the most affluent and most deprived areas of the town, this is presumably down to strong local candidates of David Watson, the successful ex-SNP independent in 2022, and Archie Buchanan, the latter regularly polling over 40% alongside a running mate during the STV era in EK South.
With these above average performances, the recorded no vote at the Independence Referendum, at 54% may have been somewhat a disappointment for the SNP. It is impossible to know for sure, but EK South, and in all probability EK Central South, would have voted yes on these numbers, assuming national demographic trends on deprivation held and that any future successful independence campaign will need to win both this constituency, and South Lanarkshire more generally. Results for the EU referendum, on the other hand, were remarkably uninteresting, following the South Lanarkshire (and Scottish) average of 62% remain almost exactly, although EK West likely produced a result similar to that in neighbouring East Renfrewshire.
The 2023 EK West by-election showed a strong recovery from Labour, although of course they should be cautioned from over-interpretating too much from a single local by-election in what has been, historically, the weakest part of the town for the SNP. Nevertheless, national and local SNP strife may give Labour hope of reclaiming a seat that even 12 months ago they may have thought beyond their reach at the, presumed, 2024 Westminster election at least.
In terms of the new boundaries, this seat will in broad terms be a recreation of the old East Kilbride constituency (which survived from creation in 1974 to 2005 with only minor alterations) that existed before a small portion of the Clydesdale constituency around Lesmahagow was added in 2005. Despite naming suggesting otherwise, Strathaven was always included within the East Kilbride constituency, with the longer name presumably to differentiate with the Holyrood constituency (which was contracted in 2011 to include solely the New Town, Strathaven being transferred to Clydesdale).
A brief electoral history seems at first glance rather beige as for Westminster, until 2015 the East Kilbride constituencies always returned a Labour MP - the Labour majority falling below 10% into marginal territory only twice, to 5.2% under an SNP challenge in October 1974 and to 9.2% with the SDP challenge of 1983. However, the Labour hegemony was never quite as secure as in many other areas of the Central Belt, however, with their share of the vote exceeding 50% only in 1979 and at New Labour's peak in 1997 and 2001.
The SNP did achieve an absolute majority of votes themselves when Lisa Cameron took the seat as part of their 2015 landslide and have held the seat since, their 2017 slide being largely cancelled out with a stronger performance in 2019. In saying that, the Nationalists did not achieve a rebound quite to the extent they may have expected, perhaps due to the relatively controversial nature of Dr Cameron’s candidacy. It is apparent that she is on the socially conservative side of her party, being one of just two SNP MPs to vote against the extension of abortion rights to Northern Ireland, this has lead to friction within the local party, Dr Cameron being the last of the SNP’s then 35 MPs to be confirmed as a PPC in 2019. The tensions within the local branch of her party over what may be described as social conservativism have only grown during her third term as an MP, particularly in response to her opposition to the Scottish Government's Gender Recognition Act.
It was however a statement of the SNP’s dominance in the seat that prior to the SNP's national woes in 2023 that her greatest (and in all probability only) challenge in 2024 would have been from within her own party. Labour will be looking to capitalise on the national environment, having consistently retained the silver medal here, although the slender 1.5% lead over the Tories in 2019 shows that other than the Cumbernauld-based constituency that this seat will have to be at the upper end of Labour's Lanarkshire expectations in 2024. For the Tories part, if they were to make any advance in Central Scotland it would likely be here as it is the least deprived constituency by far in the region (although SIMD figures must be caveated) however unlikely this seems in the short term.
It is worth noting that at least the 1970s, Scotland's new towns have provided higher than average SNP support generally this is said to be due to a lack of a monolithic labour voting history. Indeed, as Scotland’s answer to Milton Keynes, perhaps the dips in Labour support would have seen the constituency voting Conservative were it in England, certainly a move to a New Town 50 years ago was an aspirational move.
Breaking the new seat down at local politics, it covers the entirety of 6 electoral wards and nothing else: the 5 including East Kilbride alongside Avondale and Stonehouse.
In 2022, which must now be regarded as a good year for the SNP, they led in all wards although relatively narrowly in the rural Avondale and Stonehouse ward and East Kilbride West (which includes many recently built private housing estates) and more comfortably in the other 4 (South, Central South, Central North, and East). Local elections in Scotland, of course, use the preferential STV electoral system and this delivered the SNP only 8 councillors, short of a majority of the 18 covering the ward. Labour won 6 with 2 independents (former SNP and Labour councillors respectively) and the towns first Green councillor rounding out those elected. Conspicuous by their absence were the Conservatives, whose vote was down, and who were likely harmed by strong independent performances in EK West and Avondale and Stonehouse, nevertheless, this is the first time since at least the local government reorganisation of the 1970s that the Conservatives have lacked representation in the old East Kilbride district.
Historically, council elections have generally been a Labour-SNP battleground in recent years, despite the 2007 introduction of preferential voting. The Lib Dems gained their first ever councillor in the town through a defection in EK South in 2019 (that they came reasonably, but not incredibly, close to holding in 2022) and the Greens perform strongest in EK East, where they gained an SNP seat. The Lib Dem vote will be concentrated in Lindsayfield, another affluent housing estate built around the turn of the century, the rest of EK South being deprived in relative terms.
The local government reforms of 1974 introduced East Kilbride District Council which was controlled from that point through to 1980 by the SNP and from 1980 through to amalgamation into South Lanarkshire in 1995 by Labour. In both cases, first past the post ensured almost total domination of the council, except in 1974 when the SNP fell one seat short of a majority. Throughout this time both Avondale wards around the town of Strathaven consistently returned Tory candidates, however.
After these wards were subsumed into the unitary authority, SNP strength began to re-emerge in Hairmyres and Greenhills: now part of EK West and EK South respectively, and into this century their advance continued in areas now generally included within the EK East ward. With Hairmyres and Greenhills being generally the most affluent and most deprived areas of the town, this is presumably down to strong local candidates of David Watson, the successful ex-SNP independent in 2022, and Archie Buchanan, the latter regularly polling over 40% alongside a running mate during the STV era in EK South.
With these above average performances, the recorded no vote at the Independence Referendum, at 54% may have been somewhat a disappointment for the SNP. It is impossible to know for sure, but EK South, and in all probability EK Central South, would have voted yes on these numbers, assuming national demographic trends on deprivation held and that any future successful independence campaign will need to win both this constituency, and South Lanarkshire more generally. Results for the EU referendum, on the other hand, were remarkably uninteresting, following the South Lanarkshire (and Scottish) average of 62% remain almost exactly, although EK West likely produced a result similar to that in neighbouring East Renfrewshire.
The 2023 EK West by-election showed a strong recovery from Labour, although of course they should be cautioned from over-interpretating too much from a single local by-election in what has been, historically, the weakest part of the town for the SNP. Nevertheless, national and local SNP strife may give Labour hope of reclaiming a seat that even 12 months ago they may have thought beyond their reach at the, presumed, 2024 Westminster election at least.
