Post by Robert Waller on Jul 30, 2023 19:52:55 GMT
In some ways Southampton is a revealing microcosm of England; its socio-economic class and housing patterns are close to the norm for urban areas and unlike most larger cities and conurbations it has been competitive between the two ‘major parties’ since the Second World War, both of its parliamentary seats classifiable as marginals for lengthy periods. It can be regarded in many ways as a successful community. The population has continued to grow even compared with the electoral quota so that it has ‘burst the bounds’ of two constituencies and lost wards to contiguous seats in the last three completed and applied boundary reviews; latest estimates suggest that over 250,000 now live in the city, along with a substantial suburban sprawl, for example within the Eastleigh District. There are many new developments such as Ocean Village. Also within Itchen, Woolston was the old working class area around the Vosper Thorneycroft boatbuilding plant. The Vosper plant has gone, and been replaced by many flats and some riverside shopping. A second university, now just called Solent, was recognized in 2005. Southampton FC even managed to stay in the Premier League from 2012 to 2023 and overall for all but seven of that world renowned competition’s seasons. Despite their recent relegation, Southampton would still like to think of itself as a ‘premier division’, major and advancing, city.
Itchen is, in effect, Southampton East. It includes all within the city boundaries to the east of the river that provides its name, plus the Bargate ward which covers most of the city centre. Itchen used to be clearly the more working class of the two Southampton constituencies, and for a long time from its creation in 1950 that kept it in the Labour column, along with the popularity of the MP Dr Horace King, formerly a local grammar school English teacher, who sat for Test from 1950, then switched to Itchen (1955-71) becoming respected enough in the Commons too to be elected Speaker in October 1965. It was retained in the 1971 byelection then held by Labour up to 2015, including in their defeats in 1979, 1992 and 2010. Labour missed out only when Christopher Chope won in the Tory landslides of 1983 and 1987 - and in both of these the 1971-83 Labour MP Bob Mitchell stood for the SDP and polled a very substantial percentage. Itchen must therefore be regarded as a Labour-inclined seat right up to 2015.
It includes the very mixed population of City Centre and St Mary’s MSOAs (36% non white compared with a city average of 18%) and some highly deprived areas such as the Thornhill social housing estate (where 70% live in neighbourhoods ranked nationally in the most deprived quintile). In general it is more white, and has fewer educated to degree level than the Test seat. Though the professional and managerial percentage had caught up with Test by the 2021 census, there are fewer workers in the public sector – for example both the city’s main hospitals, the General and the Royal South Hants, are in Test (in Shirley and Bevois wards, respectively). These factors have probably been the chief reason why Itchen has trended to the Conservatives in the most recent elections. In May 2019 the Tories won most of the wards within Itchen in the city council elections, including gaining Bitterne from Labour.
Itchen has had some very close contests in the last decade. In 2010 the 18 year incumbent John Denham held on by just 192 votes from Royston Smith, the Conservative council leader, but in 2015 Denham retired and Smith won by 2,136. Then in 2017 it was Smith’s turn to squeak in, by 31 votes (actually only the 6th closest in an election of cliffhangers). In December 2019, though, Smith benefited from a swing of 4.8% from Labour and won by his largest margin yet, 4,498. This would have been influenced by Itchen’s 60% ‘Brexit’ share, itself a product of its demographic characteristics. One last thought, though maybe provocative given the long rivalry (in football terms at least, though there’s also Merchant v. Royal Navy) between the two main centres of population in Hampshire. The changeround in Southampton could be argued to be similar to Portsmouth. Portsmouth North was the non-city centre corresponding to pre-1983 Itchen, the more left wing up to 1979, the more right wing now, with an older white working class element, while Portsmouth South like Southampton Test now looks fairly safe for Labour; Portsmouth North, like Itchen, voted to leave the EU with a significant majority, while Test and Portsmouth South were rather evenly divided. The fault lines, if not quite the tectonic plates, in English politics have shifted.
Nevertheless, Itchen may well return to Labour allegiance in the 2024 general election. In the most recent council elections in May 2023 Labour won key wards such as Woolston, Bitterne Park, and two of the three in Peartree, as well as Bargate and Banister/Polygon in the central city area. The Conservative success remained solid only in Harefield and Sholing. In June 2023 Royston Smith, who as a three term incumbent was seen as a strong local candidate, announced he would not contest the next general election. Most likely Itchen will be won by whichever party forms the next government. In that sense too, Southampton will remain a very typical kind of place,
2011 Census
Age 65+ 14.2% 501/650
Owner-occupied 52.9% 563/650
Private rented 21.0% 109/650
Social rented 23.9% 128/650
White 90.8% 418/650
Black 1.7% 188/650
Asian 4.2% 261/650
Managerial & professional 24.9%
Routine & Semi-routine 28.4%
Degree level 20.7% 482/650
No qualifications 22.3% 357/650
Students 13.6% 75/650
2021 Census
Age 65+ 14.2 451/575
Owner occupied 52.1% 486/575
Private rented 25.5% 104/575
Social rented 22.4% 103/575
White 86.0% 346/575
Black 2.6% 197/575
Asian 6.3% 237/575
Managerial & professional 27.4% 441/575
Routine & Semi-routine 27.0% 168/575
Degree level 29.2% 369/575
No qualifications 17.5% 305/575
Students 11.2% 75/575
General election 2019: Southampton Itchen
Conservative Royston Smith 23,952 50.5 +4.0
Labour Simon Letts 19,454 41.0 -5.5
Liberal Democrats Liz Jarvis 2,503 5.3 +2.2
Green Osman Sen-Chadun 1,040 2.2 +0.6
UKIP Kim Rose 472 1.0 -1.4
C Majority 4,498 9.5 +9.4
Turnout 47,421 65.6 +0.4
Conservative hold
Swing +4.8 Lab to C
Boundary changes - none
In the initial, revised, and final proposals of the Boundary Commission for England '2023 review' Southampton Itchen's boundaries were wholly unchanged.
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_360_Southampton%20Itchen_Landscape.pdf
Itchen is, in effect, Southampton East. It includes all within the city boundaries to the east of the river that provides its name, plus the Bargate ward which covers most of the city centre. Itchen used to be clearly the more working class of the two Southampton constituencies, and for a long time from its creation in 1950 that kept it in the Labour column, along with the popularity of the MP Dr Horace King, formerly a local grammar school English teacher, who sat for Test from 1950, then switched to Itchen (1955-71) becoming respected enough in the Commons too to be elected Speaker in October 1965. It was retained in the 1971 byelection then held by Labour up to 2015, including in their defeats in 1979, 1992 and 2010. Labour missed out only when Christopher Chope won in the Tory landslides of 1983 and 1987 - and in both of these the 1971-83 Labour MP Bob Mitchell stood for the SDP and polled a very substantial percentage. Itchen must therefore be regarded as a Labour-inclined seat right up to 2015.
It includes the very mixed population of City Centre and St Mary’s MSOAs (36% non white compared with a city average of 18%) and some highly deprived areas such as the Thornhill social housing estate (where 70% live in neighbourhoods ranked nationally in the most deprived quintile). In general it is more white, and has fewer educated to degree level than the Test seat. Though the professional and managerial percentage had caught up with Test by the 2021 census, there are fewer workers in the public sector – for example both the city’s main hospitals, the General and the Royal South Hants, are in Test (in Shirley and Bevois wards, respectively). These factors have probably been the chief reason why Itchen has trended to the Conservatives in the most recent elections. In May 2019 the Tories won most of the wards within Itchen in the city council elections, including gaining Bitterne from Labour.
Itchen has had some very close contests in the last decade. In 2010 the 18 year incumbent John Denham held on by just 192 votes from Royston Smith, the Conservative council leader, but in 2015 Denham retired and Smith won by 2,136. Then in 2017 it was Smith’s turn to squeak in, by 31 votes (actually only the 6th closest in an election of cliffhangers). In December 2019, though, Smith benefited from a swing of 4.8% from Labour and won by his largest margin yet, 4,498. This would have been influenced by Itchen’s 60% ‘Brexit’ share, itself a product of its demographic characteristics. One last thought, though maybe provocative given the long rivalry (in football terms at least, though there’s also Merchant v. Royal Navy) between the two main centres of population in Hampshire. The changeround in Southampton could be argued to be similar to Portsmouth. Portsmouth North was the non-city centre corresponding to pre-1983 Itchen, the more left wing up to 1979, the more right wing now, with an older white working class element, while Portsmouth South like Southampton Test now looks fairly safe for Labour; Portsmouth North, like Itchen, voted to leave the EU with a significant majority, while Test and Portsmouth South were rather evenly divided. The fault lines, if not quite the tectonic plates, in English politics have shifted.
Nevertheless, Itchen may well return to Labour allegiance in the 2024 general election. In the most recent council elections in May 2023 Labour won key wards such as Woolston, Bitterne Park, and two of the three in Peartree, as well as Bargate and Banister/Polygon in the central city area. The Conservative success remained solid only in Harefield and Sholing. In June 2023 Royston Smith, who as a three term incumbent was seen as a strong local candidate, announced he would not contest the next general election. Most likely Itchen will be won by whichever party forms the next government. In that sense too, Southampton will remain a very typical kind of place,
2011 Census
Age 65+ 14.2% 501/650
Owner-occupied 52.9% 563/650
Private rented 21.0% 109/650
Social rented 23.9% 128/650
White 90.8% 418/650
Black 1.7% 188/650
Asian 4.2% 261/650
Managerial & professional 24.9%
Routine & Semi-routine 28.4%
Degree level 20.7% 482/650
No qualifications 22.3% 357/650
Students 13.6% 75/650
2021 Census
Age 65+ 14.2 451/575
Owner occupied 52.1% 486/575
Private rented 25.5% 104/575
Social rented 22.4% 103/575
White 86.0% 346/575
Black 2.6% 197/575
Asian 6.3% 237/575
Managerial & professional 27.4% 441/575
Routine & Semi-routine 27.0% 168/575
Degree level 29.2% 369/575
No qualifications 17.5% 305/575
Students 11.2% 75/575
General election 2019: Southampton Itchen
Conservative Royston Smith 23,952 50.5 +4.0
Labour Simon Letts 19,454 41.0 -5.5
Liberal Democrats Liz Jarvis 2,503 5.3 +2.2
Green Osman Sen-Chadun 1,040 2.2 +0.6
UKIP Kim Rose 472 1.0 -1.4
C Majority 4,498 9.5 +9.4
Turnout 47,421 65.6 +0.4
Conservative hold
Swing +4.8 Lab to C
Boundary changes - none
In the initial, revised, and final proposals of the Boundary Commission for England '2023 review' Southampton Itchen's boundaries were wholly unchanged.
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_360_Southampton%20Itchen_Landscape.pdf
