Post by andrewp on Jul 29, 2023 10:00:10 GMT
Bridgwater is a very atypical town to find in Somerset. It has been a working class down at heel place, with an out of place political tradition too- a loyalty to the Labour Party. Bridgwater Borough Council was always Labour controlled before being swallowed up into Sedgemoor District council and outvoted by the villages. Since the re-introduction of a Town Council in 2007, that body has continuously had a Labour majority.
Bridgwater has traditionally been typified by inter war council estates like Hamp in the South of the town and Sydenham in the East , with their big social problems. Sydenham has the rather interesting feature of electricity pylons running straight down the middle of its mile long straight trunk road. Traditionally the West end of the town - in Durleigh and Wembdon- has been very different from the rest - both socially and politically- trees grow, the houses are detached and the Conservatives win. Bridgwater was traditionally seen as bit of an insular place, with half the town seemingly working at the Cellophane factory in Bath Road. Things have changed over the last 20 years, with Bridgwater seeing a lot of new houses, attracting the Cattle Market from Taunton, and swathes of office parks. The town centre however has deteriorated even more over the time. As the town has changed, so has the political balance, it has swung to the right a bit.
In the local elections held in May 2022, Labour kept a strong grip on Bridgwater Town Council by winning 13 seats to the Conservatives 3, but that does mask that Labour only won the vote in the town by 45% to 41%. Bridgwater split its representation on the new Unitary Somerset council, whose inaugural elections were held on the same day, 4-4 with Labour winning in North and South wards, and the Conservatives winning in East and West.
So far, so good for Labour. The rest of the constituency however includes affluent commuter villages to Bridgwater and Taunton like Wembdon, Cannington and Puriton , the types of places which are comfortably Conservative. These remained some of the Conservatives best areas in the county as the Lib Dems won control of the new unitary Somerset council in 2022.
The boundary changes to be brought in at the next election in this corner of Somerset are quite significant. Bridgwater and West Somerset, like most of Somerset’s constituencies, is oversized with a little over 85000 electors in 2019. A new Tiverton and Minehead cross county constituency is created taking a third of the voters – 28000, and a huge part of the acreage from the western end of this constituency. The area removed is essentially the old West Somerset district. This area has been in the Bridgwater constituency for more than a century, so this is quite a radical change. It is a mix of wealthy retired people, and very real social problems for some younger people due to lack of employment and industry. The main town in this area is the titular Minehead, a seaside town dominated, both geographically and economically by a big Butlins holiday camp. A big chunk of Exmoor is also in the area removed.
To compensate for voters and territory lost , Bridgwater now looks North. In come the 19,000 electors from the twin towns of Burnham on Sea and Highbridge from Wells constituency. Burnham on Sea is a seaside town on the Bristol Channel. The tidal nature of the channel means that the town does not have the appeal of towns further down the coast in North Devon. It has a slightly down to heel town centre but is also a commuter base to Bristol and has a lot of new housing and pleasant estates of Bungalows. Burnham and Highbridge are politically competitive between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats with the Conservatives normally having the edge. Burnham and Highbridge were in the Bridgwater constituency until 1983, but since then they have spent 40 years in the Conservative/Lib Dem marginal seat of Wells.
Finally some 4000 strongly Conservative voters in the villages along the Polden Hills are lost to the newly named Wells and Mendip Hills constituency.
The new changes leave this seat with a slightly odd thin northern antennae on a map.
Bridgwater has been in Conservative hands since 1950 and has only had 3 MPs since then. The closest shaves for that party were in 1966 when Labour got within 3000 and in 1997 when Tom King’s majority was cut to 1800 by the Liberal Democrat’s. In 1997, King had intended to retire, but was persuaded by the local Conservatives to stand again as they were not confident they could hold the seat without his then 27 year incumbency vote. He was undoubtedly saved by the Lib Dem’s not being able to crack the sturdy Labour vote in Bridgwater town. In fact it’s feasible that King came second in both parts of the constituency that year- to Labour in the town and to the Lib Dem’s outside of the town. Since the close shave in 1997, the Conservative majority has increased steadily to 24,500. Ian Liddell Grainger, who succeeded King in 2001, increased his share by 7% to 62% in December 2019 with, uniquely for Somerset, Labour in second. There have been rumours that ILG has been facing a selection battle before every election, with many senior local Conservatives having fallen out with him, but he survives. He has now been selected for the new Tiverton and Minehead constituency, which contains his home, leaving what looks like a promising berth here for a new Conservative candidate.
The notional result is still that of a very safe Conservative seat, but not quite as safe as before. I think that on these boundaries this seat would have been knife edge between the Tories and Lib Dems in 1997. As it is, the opposition to the Tories would be even more divided in the new seat than the current one. The Labour vote in Bridgwater town has never been cracked by the Lib Dems, and for Labour there was probably more Labour potential in West Somerset than there is on Burnham on Sea and Highbridge. Unless something very different happens, I imagine the Tories would be able to hold this seat even if their vote dropped below 40%
Bridgwater has traditionally been typified by inter war council estates like Hamp in the South of the town and Sydenham in the East , with their big social problems. Sydenham has the rather interesting feature of electricity pylons running straight down the middle of its mile long straight trunk road. Traditionally the West end of the town - in Durleigh and Wembdon- has been very different from the rest - both socially and politically- trees grow, the houses are detached and the Conservatives win. Bridgwater was traditionally seen as bit of an insular place, with half the town seemingly working at the Cellophane factory in Bath Road. Things have changed over the last 20 years, with Bridgwater seeing a lot of new houses, attracting the Cattle Market from Taunton, and swathes of office parks. The town centre however has deteriorated even more over the time. As the town has changed, so has the political balance, it has swung to the right a bit.
In the local elections held in May 2022, Labour kept a strong grip on Bridgwater Town Council by winning 13 seats to the Conservatives 3, but that does mask that Labour only won the vote in the town by 45% to 41%. Bridgwater split its representation on the new Unitary Somerset council, whose inaugural elections were held on the same day, 4-4 with Labour winning in North and South wards, and the Conservatives winning in East and West.
So far, so good for Labour. The rest of the constituency however includes affluent commuter villages to Bridgwater and Taunton like Wembdon, Cannington and Puriton , the types of places which are comfortably Conservative. These remained some of the Conservatives best areas in the county as the Lib Dems won control of the new unitary Somerset council in 2022.
The boundary changes to be brought in at the next election in this corner of Somerset are quite significant. Bridgwater and West Somerset, like most of Somerset’s constituencies, is oversized with a little over 85000 electors in 2019. A new Tiverton and Minehead cross county constituency is created taking a third of the voters – 28000, and a huge part of the acreage from the western end of this constituency. The area removed is essentially the old West Somerset district. This area has been in the Bridgwater constituency for more than a century, so this is quite a radical change. It is a mix of wealthy retired people, and very real social problems for some younger people due to lack of employment and industry. The main town in this area is the titular Minehead, a seaside town dominated, both geographically and economically by a big Butlins holiday camp. A big chunk of Exmoor is also in the area removed.
To compensate for voters and territory lost , Bridgwater now looks North. In come the 19,000 electors from the twin towns of Burnham on Sea and Highbridge from Wells constituency. Burnham on Sea is a seaside town on the Bristol Channel. The tidal nature of the channel means that the town does not have the appeal of towns further down the coast in North Devon. It has a slightly down to heel town centre but is also a commuter base to Bristol and has a lot of new housing and pleasant estates of Bungalows. Burnham and Highbridge are politically competitive between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats with the Conservatives normally having the edge. Burnham and Highbridge were in the Bridgwater constituency until 1983, but since then they have spent 40 years in the Conservative/Lib Dem marginal seat of Wells.
Finally some 4000 strongly Conservative voters in the villages along the Polden Hills are lost to the newly named Wells and Mendip Hills constituency.
The new changes leave this seat with a slightly odd thin northern antennae on a map.
Bridgwater has been in Conservative hands since 1950 and has only had 3 MPs since then. The closest shaves for that party were in 1966 when Labour got within 3000 and in 1997 when Tom King’s majority was cut to 1800 by the Liberal Democrat’s. In 1997, King had intended to retire, but was persuaded by the local Conservatives to stand again as they were not confident they could hold the seat without his then 27 year incumbency vote. He was undoubtedly saved by the Lib Dem’s not being able to crack the sturdy Labour vote in Bridgwater town. In fact it’s feasible that King came second in both parts of the constituency that year- to Labour in the town and to the Lib Dem’s outside of the town. Since the close shave in 1997, the Conservative majority has increased steadily to 24,500. Ian Liddell Grainger, who succeeded King in 2001, increased his share by 7% to 62% in December 2019 with, uniquely for Somerset, Labour in second. There have been rumours that ILG has been facing a selection battle before every election, with many senior local Conservatives having fallen out with him, but he survives. He has now been selected for the new Tiverton and Minehead constituency, which contains his home, leaving what looks like a promising berth here for a new Conservative candidate.
The notional result is still that of a very safe Conservative seat, but not quite as safe as before. I think that on these boundaries this seat would have been knife edge between the Tories and Lib Dems in 1997. As it is, the opposition to the Tories would be even more divided in the new seat than the current one. The Labour vote in Bridgwater town has never been cracked by the Lib Dems, and for Labour there was probably more Labour potential in West Somerset than there is on Burnham on Sea and Highbridge. Unless something very different happens, I imagine the Tories would be able to hold this seat even if their vote dropped below 40%
