Post by Robert Waller on Jul 27, 2023 15:29:15 GMT
Does anyone remember the parliamentary constituency of Portsmouth Langstone? It existed only between 1950 and February 1974. Most of it was not situated in Portsmouth. There was no ward called Langstone, and the only community bearing that name is scarcely larger than a village, and it is not in Portsmouth. Yet the Langstone seat had an electorate of no less than 112,725 at the time of its final general election in 1970, and in the highly necessary boundary changes the majority of the voters were placed in a seat without a Portsmouth identity – Havant and Waterloo. Since 1983 it has been known solely and plainly as Havant.
This is a rather rare case of constituency nomenclature becoming progressively shorter, in an era – especially in the recent Final Report of the 2023 Boundary Commission - when it is thought suitable to dignify more and more places (and parts of places) by inclusion. The Langstone of the former seat did not really refer to the village of that name, but rather to Langstone harbour, which lies to the east of Portsea island and to the west of Hayling Island. Portsmouth Langstone did include four northern wards of the City of Portsmouth: those not situated on Portsea such as Cosham, Farlington and Paulsgrove, but also the former Meredith ward in the Hilsea area at the north end of Portsea island. However the bulk of its voters between 1950 and 1974 always came from the large (and growing) Urban District of Havant and Waterloo, so there is justification for the renaming in the 1970s, especially as the seat's Portsmouth city wards were switched to the new Portsmouth North division. Havant and Waterloo (1974-83) was coterminous with the newly designated local government Borough of Havant and Waterlooville, but the latter community was probably unlucky to lose its recognition in the present seat’s name in the 1983 review as its centre was still in the Havant seat; although not from 2010 as Waterloo ward as well as Cowplain and Hart Plain were placed in the new Meon Valley constituency.
Having said that, the current Havant seat does include communities that would certainly think of themselves as independent of the eponymous town. To the east, on the other side of the A27 and along the A259, is Emsworth, an independent and attractive former fishing village which is actually on Chichester Harbour rather than Langstone. Nevertheless, the inclusion of Hayling Island does reinforce the validity of the former Langstone name. Hayling Island – and, yes, it is a genuine island unlike say Axholme or Oxney – is reached across Langstone bridge and lies to the east of Langstone Harbour. It of substantial size, around four miles both from north to south and east to west. Hayling Island has a permanent population of over 17,000, but is known for its extensive caravan estates and holiday chalets; at one time it was known as ‘Little Reading’, because of its popularity as a summer destination for the Berkshire town just over 50 miles away, almost due north.
The Havant section of the constituency is far from homogeneous. It includes some major social housing estates, most notably in the area known as Leigh Park, which includes all or part of four council wards: Battins, Bondfields, Barncroft and Warren Park. Leigh Park was largely constructed on the 1950s, and focused on rehousing Portsmouth residents following the bombing of World War Two. In the 2021 census Leigh Park MSOA still recorded over 45% of housing in the social rented sector in the 2011 census, and nearby West Leigh was over 40% and Stockheath Common was only just under 40% as was Barncroft & Warren Park. The Leigh Park effect largely accounts for some of the distinctive demographics of the Havant seat as a whole. It lies in the top quartile in England and Wales for social housing, and its percentages for routine and semi-routine occupations and voters with no qualifications are also well above average.
Yet despite those socio-economic figures, Havant always has been a safe Conservative seat. In the 2019 general election, their majority was nearly 22,000 or 47.4%, enough to classify Havant as the 23rd safest Conservative seat. The closest they ever came to losing Havant or its predecessors were majorities of around 4,000 at the height of the appeal of Tony Blair and New Labour in 1997 and 2001.
Why has this far-from-elite seat been so consistently and thoroughly Conservative? One point is that as time has gone by, realignment in electoral preferences has rendered the class and educational make-up less of a hindrance, or indeed no obstacle at all, for example in the influence of the Brexit issue in a seat which voted around 63% for Leave. One example of this at the micro level is that Labour actually achieved their best result in the 2021 borough elections in St Faith’s ward south east of Havant town centre – actually the ward in the town with the highest level of educational qualifications (nearly 34% with degrees). It is also substantially more elderly in its age profile than average. Another factor disadvantaging the most modern configuration of Labour party appeal is that at the time of the most recent census statistics, this constituency was still over 95% white. Nevertheless, it might be observed that neither of the two Conservative MPs who have represented Havant since 1992 quite fit its demographic profile: for the first 23 years (and five elections) the winner was the intellectual David ‘Two Brains’ Willetts, and since 2015 the representative has been Alan Mak, the first MP of Chinese (or indeed East Asian) heritage. So far, whoever is the Conservative candidate has enjoyed a safe haven in Havant, around Langstone Harbour
In the May 2021 elections in Havant borough, in, the Tories swept every single ward, even the four in the Leigh Park area, by substantial margins – at least in percentage terms, as turnout levels were very low, for example 16% in Warren Park. However in May 2023 substantial cracks appeared in this apparently monolithic façade. The Liberal Democrats gained Bedhampton and Hayling West. The Greens gained Emsworth. Labour gained Hayling East and St Faith’s. Not all wards in Havant borough have municipal elections every year, or the Leigh Park wards may also have deserted the Conservatives in 2023.
For the first time for decades, it seems conceivable that Havant may have at least marginal status at the forthcoming general election. However it might be noted that even in May 2023, if one adds up the figures in the council seats that were contested then, the Tories were still well ahead because of the even spread of the opposition vote overall: they only achieved 39% but Labour were still ell behind at 24.5% and the Liberal Democrats polled just over 20%. Therefore tactical voting might be needed for Havant’s haven finally to be breached.
.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 20.9% 104/650
Owner-occupied 66.7% 336/650
Private rented 10.3% 559/650
Social rented 21.4% 182/650
White 97.1% 222/650
Black 0.3% 443/650
Asian 1.1% 479/650
Managerial & professional 29.0%
Routine & Semi-routine 29.3%
Degree level 22.2% 430/650
No qualifications 26.1% 212/650
Students 6.1% 468/650
2021 Census
Age 65+ 23.7% 112/575
Owner occupied 66.9% 263/575
Private rented 12.8% 541/575
Social rented 20.4% 139/575
White 95.8% 147/575
Black 0.6% 408/575
Asian 1.7% 427/575
Managerial & professional 31.3% 318/575
Routine & Semi-routine 26.0% 209/575
Degree level 26.7% 444/575
No qualifications 20.4% 176/575
Students 4.5% 493/575
General Election 2019: Havant
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Alan Mak 30,051 65.4 +5.6
Labour Rosamund Knight 8,259 18.0 -7.3
Liberal Democrats Paul Gray 5,708 12.4 +6.4
Green John Colman 1,597 3.5 +1.1
SDP Alan Black 344 0.7 New
C Majority 21,792 47.4 +12.9
Turnout 45,959 63.7 -0.2
Conservative hold
Swing +6.4 Lab to C
Boundary changes - none
The final proposals of the Boundary Commission’s 2023 review, like the initial and revised editions, leave the seat entirely unchanged
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_328_Havant_Portrait.pdf
This is a rather rare case of constituency nomenclature becoming progressively shorter, in an era – especially in the recent Final Report of the 2023 Boundary Commission - when it is thought suitable to dignify more and more places (and parts of places) by inclusion. The Langstone of the former seat did not really refer to the village of that name, but rather to Langstone harbour, which lies to the east of Portsea island and to the west of Hayling Island. Portsmouth Langstone did include four northern wards of the City of Portsmouth: those not situated on Portsea such as Cosham, Farlington and Paulsgrove, but also the former Meredith ward in the Hilsea area at the north end of Portsea island. However the bulk of its voters between 1950 and 1974 always came from the large (and growing) Urban District of Havant and Waterloo, so there is justification for the renaming in the 1970s, especially as the seat's Portsmouth city wards were switched to the new Portsmouth North division. Havant and Waterloo (1974-83) was coterminous with the newly designated local government Borough of Havant and Waterlooville, but the latter community was probably unlucky to lose its recognition in the present seat’s name in the 1983 review as its centre was still in the Havant seat; although not from 2010 as Waterloo ward as well as Cowplain and Hart Plain were placed in the new Meon Valley constituency.
Having said that, the current Havant seat does include communities that would certainly think of themselves as independent of the eponymous town. To the east, on the other side of the A27 and along the A259, is Emsworth, an independent and attractive former fishing village which is actually on Chichester Harbour rather than Langstone. Nevertheless, the inclusion of Hayling Island does reinforce the validity of the former Langstone name. Hayling Island – and, yes, it is a genuine island unlike say Axholme or Oxney – is reached across Langstone bridge and lies to the east of Langstone Harbour. It of substantial size, around four miles both from north to south and east to west. Hayling Island has a permanent population of over 17,000, but is known for its extensive caravan estates and holiday chalets; at one time it was known as ‘Little Reading’, because of its popularity as a summer destination for the Berkshire town just over 50 miles away, almost due north.
The Havant section of the constituency is far from homogeneous. It includes some major social housing estates, most notably in the area known as Leigh Park, which includes all or part of four council wards: Battins, Bondfields, Barncroft and Warren Park. Leigh Park was largely constructed on the 1950s, and focused on rehousing Portsmouth residents following the bombing of World War Two. In the 2021 census Leigh Park MSOA still recorded over 45% of housing in the social rented sector in the 2011 census, and nearby West Leigh was over 40% and Stockheath Common was only just under 40% as was Barncroft & Warren Park. The Leigh Park effect largely accounts for some of the distinctive demographics of the Havant seat as a whole. It lies in the top quartile in England and Wales for social housing, and its percentages for routine and semi-routine occupations and voters with no qualifications are also well above average.
Yet despite those socio-economic figures, Havant always has been a safe Conservative seat. In the 2019 general election, their majority was nearly 22,000 or 47.4%, enough to classify Havant as the 23rd safest Conservative seat. The closest they ever came to losing Havant or its predecessors were majorities of around 4,000 at the height of the appeal of Tony Blair and New Labour in 1997 and 2001.
Why has this far-from-elite seat been so consistently and thoroughly Conservative? One point is that as time has gone by, realignment in electoral preferences has rendered the class and educational make-up less of a hindrance, or indeed no obstacle at all, for example in the influence of the Brexit issue in a seat which voted around 63% for Leave. One example of this at the micro level is that Labour actually achieved their best result in the 2021 borough elections in St Faith’s ward south east of Havant town centre – actually the ward in the town with the highest level of educational qualifications (nearly 34% with degrees). It is also substantially more elderly in its age profile than average. Another factor disadvantaging the most modern configuration of Labour party appeal is that at the time of the most recent census statistics, this constituency was still over 95% white. Nevertheless, it might be observed that neither of the two Conservative MPs who have represented Havant since 1992 quite fit its demographic profile: for the first 23 years (and five elections) the winner was the intellectual David ‘Two Brains’ Willetts, and since 2015 the representative has been Alan Mak, the first MP of Chinese (or indeed East Asian) heritage. So far, whoever is the Conservative candidate has enjoyed a safe haven in Havant, around Langstone Harbour
In the May 2021 elections in Havant borough, in, the Tories swept every single ward, even the four in the Leigh Park area, by substantial margins – at least in percentage terms, as turnout levels were very low, for example 16% in Warren Park. However in May 2023 substantial cracks appeared in this apparently monolithic façade. The Liberal Democrats gained Bedhampton and Hayling West. The Greens gained Emsworth. Labour gained Hayling East and St Faith’s. Not all wards in Havant borough have municipal elections every year, or the Leigh Park wards may also have deserted the Conservatives in 2023.
For the first time for decades, it seems conceivable that Havant may have at least marginal status at the forthcoming general election. However it might be noted that even in May 2023, if one adds up the figures in the council seats that were contested then, the Tories were still well ahead because of the even spread of the opposition vote overall: they only achieved 39% but Labour were still ell behind at 24.5% and the Liberal Democrats polled just over 20%. Therefore tactical voting might be needed for Havant’s haven finally to be breached.
.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 20.9% 104/650
Owner-occupied 66.7% 336/650
Private rented 10.3% 559/650
Social rented 21.4% 182/650
White 97.1% 222/650
Black 0.3% 443/650
Asian 1.1% 479/650
Managerial & professional 29.0%
Routine & Semi-routine 29.3%
Degree level 22.2% 430/650
No qualifications 26.1% 212/650
Students 6.1% 468/650
2021 Census
Age 65+ 23.7% 112/575
Owner occupied 66.9% 263/575
Private rented 12.8% 541/575
Social rented 20.4% 139/575
White 95.8% 147/575
Black 0.6% 408/575
Asian 1.7% 427/575
Managerial & professional 31.3% 318/575
Routine & Semi-routine 26.0% 209/575
Degree level 26.7% 444/575
No qualifications 20.4% 176/575
Students 4.5% 493/575
General Election 2019: Havant
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Alan Mak 30,051 65.4 +5.6
Labour Rosamund Knight 8,259 18.0 -7.3
Liberal Democrats Paul Gray 5,708 12.4 +6.4
Green John Colman 1,597 3.5 +1.1
SDP Alan Black 344 0.7 New
C Majority 21,792 47.4 +12.9
Turnout 45,959 63.7 -0.2
Conservative hold
Swing +6.4 Lab to C
Boundary changes - none
The final proposals of the Boundary Commission’s 2023 review, like the initial and revised editions, leave the seat entirely unchanged
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_328_Havant_Portrait.pdf
