Post by Robert Waller on Jul 25, 2023 17:11:49 GMT
In electoral terms, Sunderland is well known for its extremely speedy declarations of results on general election nights, vying with its great rival, the other major city in the North East - Newcastle upon Tyne. One thing that has helped to ensure that its results have been among the first is that it is a long time since Sunderland has been regarded as a marginal political area susceptible to changes of hand or at least close contests between the parties. However the level of interest has been raised a couple of notches in recent years by some abysmal performances by the ruling Labour party in Sunderland city council elections, which affect the core of the city more than the periphery. Therefore this Central constituency more than those parts diluted by attachment to extraneous terrain, such as Houghton & Sunderland South, may be regarded as potentially competitive.
Some observers even thought that Sunderland Central might be vulnerable to the Tory surge in December 2019, given that the election had become largely focused on the Brexit issue, and that the city of Sunderland had voted to Leave by 61.3% to 39.7% Remain in a typically swiftly announced outcome that sent shock waves through the Europhile Establishment on 23 June 2016. However despite a negative swing of 7.7% Labour’s Julie Elliott did hold on with a majority of just under 3,000 to be one of the first MPs returned to the green benches; she has been the representative here since the Central seat was created in 2010.
There are mixed residential areas both north and south of Sunderland’s centre. North we find, along the coast north of the town centre, Fulwell, which includes Seaburn, and St Peter’s, which includes Roker. This is the resort area of Sunderland, with a new multi-million pound leisure complex at Seaburn and some serviceable beaches. Also, there was a time (1953–64) when its South division was held by the Conservatives, although always narrowly. It is true that there are still substantial middle-class residential neighbourhoods here, south-west of the town centre in St Michael’s ward, for example. This factor meant that when the seat was first created before the 2010 election some observers thought it might be marginal, a least in a good Tory year. Traditionally, though, these more middle class areas have been outvoted though by ‘inner city’ wards such as Millfield, Pallion and Southwick, though the massive peripheral council estates are mainly in the other seats with Sunderland in their names. But oddly Central does extend as far south as Ryhope, an old colliery community often considered to be separate from Sunderland itself.
However, in local elections even the wards thought to be solidly Labour have proved disloyal (or free-spirited) in very recent times. In both May 2019 and May 2021 Labour suffered severe losses to both Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. In 2021 for example within the boundaries of the Central constituency the Tories made gains in the terraces of Barnes ward, St Peter’s, and in Ryhope, whose mining tradition is long in the past – as well as holding St Michael’s. The Liberal Democrats won in Fulwell, Hendon on the inner south coast, and inner city Millfield and Pallion. Labour won precisely one ward, Southwick. Labour’s record on local government byelections in Sunderland in the early 2020s was not good either. At last there was some recovery in May 2022. Labour won the Hendon and Ryhope wards as well as Southwick; but the LDs still held Fulwell, Millfield and Pallion, and the Tories took Barnes, St Michael’s and St Peter’s. All this added up to a symmetrical three for each party. That this was seen as a relatively good performance by Labour indicates that they still had problems at local level in Sunderland. Then in May 2023 the one change from 2022 was that Labour gained Barnes from the Conservatives, confirming their mini-revival at municipal level and re-establishing themselves as the party winning the most council wards within the Sunderland Central constituency.
Sunderland’s economy was heavily based on the now-defunct Durham coalfield, for which it was the major port, and on shipbuilding – in the nineteenth century Sunderland claimed to be the world’s largest shipbuilding town. All this is gone now. What is more, so are a number of other industries and job opportunities on Wearside. Yes, Nissan are still there, since 1981, with a factory actually situated in the Washington & Sunderland West seat;, Rolls-Royce moved their factory from Pallion in the heart of Sunderland also out to Washington New Town, Corning glass works and Pyrex ended production in 2007, Dewhirst’s two clothing factories in Pennywell closed in 2003 but that at Hendon survives, the Vaux brewery was closed in 1999, and Grove-Coles cranes stopped production in 1998.
However it should be pointed out that the economics of Sunderland are characterised by transformation and regeneration rather than simple decline. There are several examples in this constituency. The technical college gained university status in 1992 and now has around several campuses and 20,000 students; in the Central constituency full time students account for around double of the average occupational share. In 1997 the passionately supported Sunderland FC left Roker Park for the grandly named Stadium of Light, which hangs dramatically over the north bank of the Wear opposite the city centre. The football team has under-achieved in recent seasons but the stadium is the heart of a wider multi-use development known as the Village. As well as providing the location for university accommodation the former shipbuilding yards and docks on the Wear have been reborn as the National Glass Centre, the Northern Gallery for Contemporary Art, the Boars Head boutique hotel, The Beam corporate office building (on stilts) and so on. Overall Sunderland is a far from untypical example of the transformation of the British economy from heavy industry, and indeed manufacturing in general, to newer sectors.
Unemployment is, however, above average at around 6.2% in 2022 compared with a national rate of 3.8%, and median wages were lower: female £27,900 compared with a national average of £29,700 and male £28,800 compared with £35,300.
www.plumplot.co.uk/Sunderland-salary-and-unemployment.html#:~:text=The%20unemployment%20rate%20is%20ranging,rate%20was%203.8%25%20in%202022
Together with the latest census figures suggesting that in Sunderland Central there were higher than average numbers employed in routine and semi-routine occupations and with no educational qualifications, and lower than average owner-occupation, this all adds up to a seat decidedly on the poorer and more working class side of the norm.
The electoral consequence is that as the European issue fades (or opinions on it change when exposed to its effects) Labour may well strengthen their position compared with December 2019, as long as the problems relating to the council elections are not translated to the parliamentary sphere. This seems likely, as the municipally successful Liberal Democrats only achieved 7% of the vote in the most recent general election. Sunderland Central is a rare seat unchanged in the provisional and revised recommendations of the Boundary Commission and indeed its final report in 2023, though it only one other seat will have ‘Sunderland’ in its name (Houghton & Sunderland South), despite some ‘core’ Sunderland wards being located in “Washington and Gateshead South”. We probably shall not have to wait very long next General Election night to find out what happens, as yet again the Mackems do battle with the Geordies to bring in the first results - a contest at which Sunderland will have a more equal chance to shine than the respective soccer teams, judging by the 2022-23 season at least.
2011 Census ranks UK
Age 65+ 17.2% 287 /650
Owner-occupied 59.1% 490/650
Private rented 18.5% 155/650
Social rented 21.3% 184 /650
White 92.0% 395/650
Black 0.9% 281/650
Asian 5.7% 197/650
Managerial & professional 23.0%
Routine & Semi-routine 30.4 %
Degree level 21.4% 461/650
No qualifications 27.5% 158/650
Students 12.0% 131/650
2021 Census ranks England and Wales
Age 65+ 19.9% 250 /575
Owner occupied 58.1% 422/575
Private rented 19.9% 208/575
Social rented 22.0% 112/575
White 89.5% 301/575
Black 2.0% 234/575
Asian 6.5% 230/575
Managerial & professional 25.4% 481/575
Routine & Semi-routine 27.1% 166/575
Degree level 28.2% 393/575
No qualifications 22.1% 109/575
Students 8.7% 131/575
General Election 2019: Sunderland Central
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Julie Elliott 18,336 42.2 –13.3
Conservative Tom D'Silva 15,372 35.4 +2.1
Brexit Party Viral Parikh 5,047 11.6 New
Liberal Democrats Niall Hodson 3,025 7.0 +3.1
Green Rachel Featherstone 1,212 2.8 +1.3
Independent Dale McKenzie 484 1.1 New
Lab Majority 2,964 6.8 –15.4
2019 electorate 72,677
Turnout 43,476 59.8 –2.2
Labour hold
Swings
7.7 Lab to C
12.4 Lab to Brexit
2023 Boundary Changes and 2019 notional results
None, unchanged constituency
Some observers even thought that Sunderland Central might be vulnerable to the Tory surge in December 2019, given that the election had become largely focused on the Brexit issue, and that the city of Sunderland had voted to Leave by 61.3% to 39.7% Remain in a typically swiftly announced outcome that sent shock waves through the Europhile Establishment on 23 June 2016. However despite a negative swing of 7.7% Labour’s Julie Elliott did hold on with a majority of just under 3,000 to be one of the first MPs returned to the green benches; she has been the representative here since the Central seat was created in 2010.
There are mixed residential areas both north and south of Sunderland’s centre. North we find, along the coast north of the town centre, Fulwell, which includes Seaburn, and St Peter’s, which includes Roker. This is the resort area of Sunderland, with a new multi-million pound leisure complex at Seaburn and some serviceable beaches. Also, there was a time (1953–64) when its South division was held by the Conservatives, although always narrowly. It is true that there are still substantial middle-class residential neighbourhoods here, south-west of the town centre in St Michael’s ward, for example. This factor meant that when the seat was first created before the 2010 election some observers thought it might be marginal, a least in a good Tory year. Traditionally, though, these more middle class areas have been outvoted though by ‘inner city’ wards such as Millfield, Pallion and Southwick, though the massive peripheral council estates are mainly in the other seats with Sunderland in their names. But oddly Central does extend as far south as Ryhope, an old colliery community often considered to be separate from Sunderland itself.
However, in local elections even the wards thought to be solidly Labour have proved disloyal (or free-spirited) in very recent times. In both May 2019 and May 2021 Labour suffered severe losses to both Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. In 2021 for example within the boundaries of the Central constituency the Tories made gains in the terraces of Barnes ward, St Peter’s, and in Ryhope, whose mining tradition is long in the past – as well as holding St Michael’s. The Liberal Democrats won in Fulwell, Hendon on the inner south coast, and inner city Millfield and Pallion. Labour won precisely one ward, Southwick. Labour’s record on local government byelections in Sunderland in the early 2020s was not good either. At last there was some recovery in May 2022. Labour won the Hendon and Ryhope wards as well as Southwick; but the LDs still held Fulwell, Millfield and Pallion, and the Tories took Barnes, St Michael’s and St Peter’s. All this added up to a symmetrical three for each party. That this was seen as a relatively good performance by Labour indicates that they still had problems at local level in Sunderland. Then in May 2023 the one change from 2022 was that Labour gained Barnes from the Conservatives, confirming their mini-revival at municipal level and re-establishing themselves as the party winning the most council wards within the Sunderland Central constituency.
Sunderland’s economy was heavily based on the now-defunct Durham coalfield, for which it was the major port, and on shipbuilding – in the nineteenth century Sunderland claimed to be the world’s largest shipbuilding town. All this is gone now. What is more, so are a number of other industries and job opportunities on Wearside. Yes, Nissan are still there, since 1981, with a factory actually situated in the Washington & Sunderland West seat;, Rolls-Royce moved their factory from Pallion in the heart of Sunderland also out to Washington New Town, Corning glass works and Pyrex ended production in 2007, Dewhirst’s two clothing factories in Pennywell closed in 2003 but that at Hendon survives, the Vaux brewery was closed in 1999, and Grove-Coles cranes stopped production in 1998.
However it should be pointed out that the economics of Sunderland are characterised by transformation and regeneration rather than simple decline. There are several examples in this constituency. The technical college gained university status in 1992 and now has around several campuses and 20,000 students; in the Central constituency full time students account for around double of the average occupational share. In 1997 the passionately supported Sunderland FC left Roker Park for the grandly named Stadium of Light, which hangs dramatically over the north bank of the Wear opposite the city centre. The football team has under-achieved in recent seasons but the stadium is the heart of a wider multi-use development known as the Village. As well as providing the location for university accommodation the former shipbuilding yards and docks on the Wear have been reborn as the National Glass Centre, the Northern Gallery for Contemporary Art, the Boars Head boutique hotel, The Beam corporate office building (on stilts) and so on. Overall Sunderland is a far from untypical example of the transformation of the British economy from heavy industry, and indeed manufacturing in general, to newer sectors.
Unemployment is, however, above average at around 6.2% in 2022 compared with a national rate of 3.8%, and median wages were lower: female £27,900 compared with a national average of £29,700 and male £28,800 compared with £35,300.
www.plumplot.co.uk/Sunderland-salary-and-unemployment.html#:~:text=The%20unemployment%20rate%20is%20ranging,rate%20was%203.8%25%20in%202022
Together with the latest census figures suggesting that in Sunderland Central there were higher than average numbers employed in routine and semi-routine occupations and with no educational qualifications, and lower than average owner-occupation, this all adds up to a seat decidedly on the poorer and more working class side of the norm.
The electoral consequence is that as the European issue fades (or opinions on it change when exposed to its effects) Labour may well strengthen their position compared with December 2019, as long as the problems relating to the council elections are not translated to the parliamentary sphere. This seems likely, as the municipally successful Liberal Democrats only achieved 7% of the vote in the most recent general election. Sunderland Central is a rare seat unchanged in the provisional and revised recommendations of the Boundary Commission and indeed its final report in 2023, though it only one other seat will have ‘Sunderland’ in its name (Houghton & Sunderland South), despite some ‘core’ Sunderland wards being located in “Washington and Gateshead South”. We probably shall not have to wait very long next General Election night to find out what happens, as yet again the Mackems do battle with the Geordies to bring in the first results - a contest at which Sunderland will have a more equal chance to shine than the respective soccer teams, judging by the 2022-23 season at least.
2011 Census ranks UK
Age 65+ 17.2% 287 /650
Owner-occupied 59.1% 490/650
Private rented 18.5% 155/650
Social rented 21.3% 184 /650
White 92.0% 395/650
Black 0.9% 281/650
Asian 5.7% 197/650
Managerial & professional 23.0%
Routine & Semi-routine 30.4 %
Degree level 21.4% 461/650
No qualifications 27.5% 158/650
Students 12.0% 131/650
2021 Census ranks England and Wales
Age 65+ 19.9% 250 /575
Owner occupied 58.1% 422/575
Private rented 19.9% 208/575
Social rented 22.0% 112/575
White 89.5% 301/575
Black 2.0% 234/575
Asian 6.5% 230/575
Managerial & professional 25.4% 481/575
Routine & Semi-routine 27.1% 166/575
Degree level 28.2% 393/575
No qualifications 22.1% 109/575
Students 8.7% 131/575
General Election 2019: Sunderland Central
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Julie Elliott 18,336 42.2 –13.3
Conservative Tom D'Silva 15,372 35.4 +2.1
Brexit Party Viral Parikh 5,047 11.6 New
Liberal Democrats Niall Hodson 3,025 7.0 +3.1
Green Rachel Featherstone 1,212 2.8 +1.3
Independent Dale McKenzie 484 1.1 New
Lab Majority 2,964 6.8 –15.4
2019 electorate 72,677
Turnout 43,476 59.8 –2.2
Labour hold
Swings
7.7 Lab to C
12.4 Lab to Brexit
2023 Boundary Changes and 2019 notional results
None, unchanged constituency
