Post by Robert Waller on Jul 22, 2023 18:55:04 GMT
Macclesfield has only been represented by three Tory MPs since 1945. Outlasting the 26 years of Sir Arthur Vere Harvey, the longest serving of these (39 years) was the colourful right winger Sir Nicholas Winterton, who initially only just retained the seat for the Conservatives in a by-election held during the mid-term unpopularity of the Heath government in 1971 – his majority was just 1,079 over Labour. However, following that narrow squeak he was re-elected nine times, on each occasion with a very comfortable majority. His successor, since 2010, has been the quieter David Rutley, but he too has enjoyed a stable pattern of success in the Macclesfield constituency – his percentage share has scarcely varied in the most recent three general elections: 52.5% in 2015, 52.7% in 2017, and back to 52.5% in December 2019. Labour remain clearly in second place. Their share did advance by 14% when Jeremy Corbyn led a surprisingly strong campaign in 2017, but fell back by 4% when his appeal tarnished in the Brexit-dominated general election of 2019. Rutley’s current majority is 10,711 and it would take a swing of almost exactly 10% to remove him. This therefore is in effect on the outer edge of Labour hopes for the forthcoming Westminster contest, the sort of seat that websites which apply national uniform swing to midterm national opinion polls have been ‘predicting’ as Labour gains.
Before 2009 the seat’s boundaries encompassed most of the borough of Macclesfield, but then that was abolished and subsumed within Cheshire East unitary authority. Indeed the town of Macclesfield is situated right on the eastern edge of the county on the border with Derbyshire. It comprises about half the constituency: there are around 34,000 electors in the wards name after the town, but 41,000 if the contiguous Broken Cross & Upton is included. This former silk manufacturing centre has expanded greatly since the war, with the growth of new private estates like Tytherington pleasantly set on the edge of the Cheshire plain just beneath the Peak District foothills. There is still terraced and even working-class housing in central and south Macclesfield, and there are council estates at Weston in the west, Moss Rose in the south (near the football ground, where a phoenix club is currently rising from the ashes under the distinctive stewardship of Robbie Savage), and Hurdsfield in the north-east, with its large industrial estate and tower blocks.
www.macclesfield-live.co.uk/news/local-news/tower-blocks-macclesfield-not-tested-13256252
But more typical are the thousands of post-war private houses in Ivymead and Ivy Farm in the west of the town, Tytherington and Bollinsbrook in the north and north-west, and the longer established middle class residential areas such as around the cemetery and hospital on the Prestbury and Victoria Roads..
Usually local council representation has been fairly even divided, though in May 2023 the Conservatives lost in all the Cheshire East wards within Macclesfield itself, including in Tytherington and East to Independents. Macclesfield East was once known as the strongest area within the town (and constituency) for Liberal Democrats (and their predecessors) - solidly from its creation in 1979 to 2011, but in the face of a popular incumbent independent their candidate garnered precisely 28 votes (2%) in 2023. Clearly Labour would have been ahead in Macclesfield town itself in May 2023, but that would not have been the case in the other terrain within the constituency.
Labour did do very well to win Bollington ward in 2023 a former cotton town on the River Dean north of Macclesfield, which has become popular for commuters to Manchester in recent years; previously it had been held by a localist group, Bollington First, and before that Liberal Democrats and Conservatives. However, the rest of the seat is really very poor ground for Labour. This is the affluent Cheshire commuter belt for Manchester, including attractive villages like Gawsworth, with its eponymous Hall, on the flatter ground, and rising up to Macclesfield Forest, Pott Shrigley and Rainow in the hills, together with the larger communities of Disley and Poynton, which lie towards Hazel Grove and ultimately Stockport and Manchester, and Prestbury. In the last named, which locally has the reputation of being the ‘richest village in England’, Rolls-Royces abound and the detached homes with external (mock) gas lamps and trim lawns are reminiscent of a wealthy American neighbourhood. This definitely part of ‘Footballers’ Wives’ country, with Wayne and Coleen Rooney among the notable recent Prestbury residents, along with TV’s Paddy McGuinness and Noddy Holder of Slade.
www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/whats-on/whats-on-news/super-rich-village-home-footballers-26141226
The last time Labour stood in a local election in Prestbury (2019), it was a straight fight with the Conservative, who achieved 89% of the vote.
Macclesfield’s electorate of 76,000 in 2019 was close to the national quota once it was decided that 650 seats be retained for the House of Commons, together with its geographical position on the edge of the county, it meant that it was not surprising that In the Boundary Commission for England's initial, revised, and final proposals for the North West, Macclesfield constituency is wholly unchanged from its present lines.
While Macclesfield is far from a monolithic Conservative seat, as the council reverses demonstrate, the fact that Labour were unable to take it even in that 1971 parliamentary byelection means that those internet predictions should be taken with a pinch of Cheshire salt, and it is far from unlikely that David Rutley should continue the tradition of long serving MPs for Macclesfield. The good news for Labour is that they do not need to win it to form the next government, as they should probably be able to secure even an overall majority with a little less than the 10% swing needed – and certainly they do not need Macclesfield to become the largest party. Even the fact that it may seriously be considered as a potential gain, for the first time ever suggests that Keir Starmer is in a very strong position already to move into Downing Street.
2011 Census, ranks old boundaries UK
Age 65+ 19.8% 142/650
Owner-occupied 74.5% 80/650
Private rented 12.2% 445/650
Social rented 11.6% 514/650
White 96.8% 243/650
Black 0.3% 461/650
Asian 1.8% 378/650
Managerial & professional 40.6%
Routine & Semi-routine 20.0%
Degree level 35.0% 91/650
No qualifications 18.2% 528/650
Students 6.0% 473/650
2021 Census, ranks new boundaries, England and Wales
Age 65+ 23.8% 111/575
Owner occupied 73.3% 95/575
Private rented 15.1% 436/575
Social rented 11.7% 444/575
White 95.2% 177/575
Black 0.6% 410/575
Asian 2.0% 390/575
Managerial & professional 42.4% 78/575
Routine & Semi-routine 18.8% 444/575
Degree level 40.7% 106/575
No qualifications 13.7% 482/575
Students 4.5% 491/575
General Election 2019: Macclesfield
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative David Rutley 28,292 52.5% -0.2
Labour Neil Puttick 17,581 32.6% -4.2
Liberal Democrats Neil Christian 5,684 10.6% +4.4
Green James Booth 2,310 4.3% +2.1
C Majority 10,711 19.9 +4.0
Turnout 53,867 71.7 -1.5
Conservative hold
Swings
+2.1 Lab to C, +2.3 C to LD
Boundary changes and 2019 notional results
N/A, unchanged seat
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-west/North%20West_247_Macclesfield_Portrait.pdf
Before 2009 the seat’s boundaries encompassed most of the borough of Macclesfield, but then that was abolished and subsumed within Cheshire East unitary authority. Indeed the town of Macclesfield is situated right on the eastern edge of the county on the border with Derbyshire. It comprises about half the constituency: there are around 34,000 electors in the wards name after the town, but 41,000 if the contiguous Broken Cross & Upton is included. This former silk manufacturing centre has expanded greatly since the war, with the growth of new private estates like Tytherington pleasantly set on the edge of the Cheshire plain just beneath the Peak District foothills. There is still terraced and even working-class housing in central and south Macclesfield, and there are council estates at Weston in the west, Moss Rose in the south (near the football ground, where a phoenix club is currently rising from the ashes under the distinctive stewardship of Robbie Savage), and Hurdsfield in the north-east, with its large industrial estate and tower blocks.
www.macclesfield-live.co.uk/news/local-news/tower-blocks-macclesfield-not-tested-13256252
But more typical are the thousands of post-war private houses in Ivymead and Ivy Farm in the west of the town, Tytherington and Bollinsbrook in the north and north-west, and the longer established middle class residential areas such as around the cemetery and hospital on the Prestbury and Victoria Roads..
Usually local council representation has been fairly even divided, though in May 2023 the Conservatives lost in all the Cheshire East wards within Macclesfield itself, including in Tytherington and East to Independents. Macclesfield East was once known as the strongest area within the town (and constituency) for Liberal Democrats (and their predecessors) - solidly from its creation in 1979 to 2011, but in the face of a popular incumbent independent their candidate garnered precisely 28 votes (2%) in 2023. Clearly Labour would have been ahead in Macclesfield town itself in May 2023, but that would not have been the case in the other terrain within the constituency.
Labour did do very well to win Bollington ward in 2023 a former cotton town on the River Dean north of Macclesfield, which has become popular for commuters to Manchester in recent years; previously it had been held by a localist group, Bollington First, and before that Liberal Democrats and Conservatives. However, the rest of the seat is really very poor ground for Labour. This is the affluent Cheshire commuter belt for Manchester, including attractive villages like Gawsworth, with its eponymous Hall, on the flatter ground, and rising up to Macclesfield Forest, Pott Shrigley and Rainow in the hills, together with the larger communities of Disley and Poynton, which lie towards Hazel Grove and ultimately Stockport and Manchester, and Prestbury. In the last named, which locally has the reputation of being the ‘richest village in England’, Rolls-Royces abound and the detached homes with external (mock) gas lamps and trim lawns are reminiscent of a wealthy American neighbourhood. This definitely part of ‘Footballers’ Wives’ country, with Wayne and Coleen Rooney among the notable recent Prestbury residents, along with TV’s Paddy McGuinness and Noddy Holder of Slade.
www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/whats-on/whats-on-news/super-rich-village-home-footballers-26141226
The last time Labour stood in a local election in Prestbury (2019), it was a straight fight with the Conservative, who achieved 89% of the vote.
Macclesfield’s electorate of 76,000 in 2019 was close to the national quota once it was decided that 650 seats be retained for the House of Commons, together with its geographical position on the edge of the county, it meant that it was not surprising that In the Boundary Commission for England's initial, revised, and final proposals for the North West, Macclesfield constituency is wholly unchanged from its present lines.
While Macclesfield is far from a monolithic Conservative seat, as the council reverses demonstrate, the fact that Labour were unable to take it even in that 1971 parliamentary byelection means that those internet predictions should be taken with a pinch of Cheshire salt, and it is far from unlikely that David Rutley should continue the tradition of long serving MPs for Macclesfield. The good news for Labour is that they do not need to win it to form the next government, as they should probably be able to secure even an overall majority with a little less than the 10% swing needed – and certainly they do not need Macclesfield to become the largest party. Even the fact that it may seriously be considered as a potential gain, for the first time ever suggests that Keir Starmer is in a very strong position already to move into Downing Street.
2011 Census, ranks old boundaries UK
Age 65+ 19.8% 142/650
Owner-occupied 74.5% 80/650
Private rented 12.2% 445/650
Social rented 11.6% 514/650
White 96.8% 243/650
Black 0.3% 461/650
Asian 1.8% 378/650
Managerial & professional 40.6%
Routine & Semi-routine 20.0%
Degree level 35.0% 91/650
No qualifications 18.2% 528/650
Students 6.0% 473/650
2021 Census, ranks new boundaries, England and Wales
Age 65+ 23.8% 111/575
Owner occupied 73.3% 95/575
Private rented 15.1% 436/575
Social rented 11.7% 444/575
White 95.2% 177/575
Black 0.6% 410/575
Asian 2.0% 390/575
Managerial & professional 42.4% 78/575
Routine & Semi-routine 18.8% 444/575
Degree level 40.7% 106/575
No qualifications 13.7% 482/575
Students 4.5% 491/575
General Election 2019: Macclesfield
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative David Rutley 28,292 52.5% -0.2
Labour Neil Puttick 17,581 32.6% -4.2
Liberal Democrats Neil Christian 5,684 10.6% +4.4
Green James Booth 2,310 4.3% +2.1
C Majority 10,711 19.9 +4.0
Turnout 53,867 71.7 -1.5
Conservative hold
Swings
+2.1 Lab to C, +2.3 C to LD
Boundary changes and 2019 notional results
N/A, unchanged seat
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-west/North%20West_247_Macclesfield_Portrait.pdf
