Post by Robert Waller on Jul 21, 2023 13:51:19 GMT
Just under half of the electorate of this constituency is actually in the town of St Helens itself. The majority is to be found in a swathe of small towns to its north and east: in a clockwise direction, Rainford, Billinge, Haydock and Newton-le-Willows. The last named is the largest, especially if one includes the contiguous Earlestown, with two wards totalling nearly 19,000 voters. Indeed there was a parliamentary seat named Newton from 1559 to 1832 and again from 1885 to 1983. This is an indication that there is a much older community here than St Helens itself, which is largely a product of the Industrial Revolution. It does have to be admitted that the borough of Newton was somewhat ‘rotten’ before the Great Reform Act, with a population of little over 2,000 and far fewer entitled to the franchise; in its later history the name has varied between Newton-in-Makerfield (Urban District 1895 to 1939) and subsequently Newton-le-Willows. Given this history of representation, it seems a little tough on Newton that it does not figure in the name of this division at all, especially given that St Helens South has to share its title with Whiston, a much smaller place with no heritage as a parliamentary seat.
The non St Helens element of the North constituency is somewhat varied in character. Counter-intuitively, the place closest to Liverpool (and most likely to display ‘Scouse’ accents) is also the only one that is reliably Conservative. Rainford has sent Tory councillors to St Helens metropolitan borough council since its inaugural contests in 1973 in all years but 1994 and 1995 - in the very first flush of New Labour (along with one out of three in that very first all-out election). Rainford, with its plethora of private housing estates, is a desirable residential area for commuters to both Liverpool and St Helens; its ward was 86% owner occupied at the time of the latest available census housing statistics, and had over 39% in the professional and managerial occupation categories, compared with 26% for the seat as a whole. The parents of siblings Keith Chegwin and Janice Long moved from Bootle to Rainford after the success of the former (aged 12) in the London West End musical Mame (with Ginger Rogers) in 1969. In May 2022 the Conservatives defeated Labour by 57% to 43% in a straight fight (Labour put only one candidate for two council places).
If Rainford feels like part of Merseyside (and its cricket club does take part in the Liverpool Competition league), Billing and Seneley Green ward is, literally, Lancashire-accented, and looks, if anywhere in particular, towards Wigan. It was also Independently minded in local elections in 2022, electing two such candidates to Labour’s one; however it was solidly Labour between 1990 and 2021 and before then elected Tories only in their peak years such as 1975-79. Haydock, on the other hand, population 11,000 and known for its racecourse, has migrated from Labour, through a dalliance with the Liberal Democrats between 2004 and 2007, to elect none but Green Party candidates since 2019. It is one of only two wards to do so in St Helens borough – and the only one in this seat. The Greens convincingly took all three Haydock seats in the all out elections on new ward boundaries in May 2022. In Newton-le-Willows East, Labour returned all three candidates, but in Newton-le-Willows West (which is essentially, Earlestown), Independents took two and Labour one. Generally, though, Earlestown, which had 25.5% social rented housing between its two census MOAs in 2021, has been the more loyal to Labour in local elections, and probably still is in national contests, while East (Newton town) elected Liberal Democrats continuously between 1996 and 2011.
Unlike the variation in the ‘outer’ wards, those in St Helens have all been solidly Labour, at least in the past ten years or so. Windle in the north west of the town, named after the brook that flows through it, is traditionally one of its most attractive residential areas, solidly (70%) owner occupied and mainly semi-detached, with over 30% professional and managerial workers. However, though mainly Tory until 2008, Labour has won ever since. This is not so much due to Windle declining – pleasant housing such as that down Dartmouth Drive has still been built recently – as the dealignment between class and relative affluence and party voting. In a very different kind of area, though also with new-build housing, Labour also looks set to do well in the new ward of Peasley Cross & Fingerpost, a redevelopment area much nearer the centre of St Helens
docs.planning.org.uk/20220808/149/RFQKFYPEI3Z00/haiuwo7m172zp0za.pdf
In its inaugural contest in 2022 Labour took 60% here, with 20% each for the Greens and the Conservatives; though as yet there is both a small electorate and a low turnout, and only a little over 500 votes were cast for a single councillor.
In more established working class wards, Labour’s record of success is long standing. Blackbrook (on the way north east to Haydock) has elected no other candidates in its fifty years of contests since the creation of the metropolitan borough. Moss Bank, the large neighbourhood that is one of the more often visited parts of St Helens due to its position straddling the A580 ‘East Lancs Road’, has stopped choosing the Liberal Democrats as it did up to 2008. Finally, the real stronghold in the seat is Parr, switched from St Helens South in 2010. Very much the east end of the town, Parr still had 60% social rented housing in its local area (OA) data in 2021, over 40% in routine and semi-routine occupations, and as many as 47% without educational qualifications. Labour haven’t lost in Parr ward since 1992 and in 2022 (there were no municipal elections in 2023) two of their candidates were in effect elected unopposed as only one Conservative took a nominal, and minimal stance against them.
The stable population in this part of North West England means that no boundary changes at all have been recommended by the 2023 commission. St Helens is not one of the better known or more visited parts of the nation. Compared with a near neighbour Warrington, for example, it is less at the heart of the motorway network and has seen far less commercial development and population growth. It is hardly cosmopolitan: with 96%, it ranks 7th out if all seats for the proportion born in England. It is similarly high up the ranks of self-ascribed Christians – this too makes it seem somewhat old-fashioned given the trends away from religion noted in the most recent census. St Helens and the other communities in this seat still seem repositories of traditional and largely working class culture, such as rugby league and, indeed, darts. In the 2023 world championships of the latter there were representatives in the last 16 of far flung places such as Portugal, Belgium and Germany (shades of a recent world cup in a much more fashionable game) – but three of the top English players were all from St Helens; and if listening on TV to one of the more distinctive commentators, Stuart Pyke, well, he’s from St Helens too. Labour have not been beaten in a St Helens seat (or Newton) since 1931, and suffered only a five per cent swing in December 2019. Therefore even this, slightly the less safe of the two divisions, now has a much larger majority than, say, Wigan. English players may not win either football or darts world championships, but Labour will yet again hit the bullseye in St Helens next time.
2011 Census, ranks / UK
Age 65+ 17.5% 365/650
Owner-occupied 67.3% 314/650
Private rented 9.3% 603/650
Social rented 21.4% 181/650
White 98.4% 72/650
Black 0.1% 610/650
Asian 0.8% 576 /650
Christian 78.7% 7/573
Born in England 96.0% 7/650
Managerial & professional 26.2%
Routine & Semi-routine 32.6%
Degree level 20.7% 483/650
No qualifications 27.7% 152/650
Students 6.4% 396/650
2021 Census, ranks / England and Wales, new boundaries
Age 65+ 20.8% 213/575
Owner occupied 66.0% 288/575
Private rented 13.5% 508/575
Social rented 20.5% 135/575
White 96.9% 71/575
Black 0.4% 479/575
Asian 1.2% 499/575
Christian 62.3% 14/575
Managerial & professional 28.4% 405/575
Routine & Semi-routine 29.7% 89/575
Degree level 27.0% 434/575
No qualifications 21.3% 140/575
Students 4.8% 441/575
General Election 2019: St Helens North
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Conor McGinn 24,870 52.3 −11.4
Conservative Joel Charles 12,661 26.6 −0.5
Brexit Party Malcolm Webster 5,396 11.3 New
Liberal Democrats Pat Moloney 2,668 5.6 +3.0
Green David Van Der Burg 1,966 4.1 +1.7
Lab Majority 12,209 25.7 −10.9
2019 electorate 75,593
Turnout 47,561 62.9 −3.1
Labour hold
Swing 5.4 Lab to C
Boundary Changes and 2019 notional results
N/A, unchanged seat
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-west/North%20West_267_St%20Helens%20North_Landscape.pdf
The non St Helens element of the North constituency is somewhat varied in character. Counter-intuitively, the place closest to Liverpool (and most likely to display ‘Scouse’ accents) is also the only one that is reliably Conservative. Rainford has sent Tory councillors to St Helens metropolitan borough council since its inaugural contests in 1973 in all years but 1994 and 1995 - in the very first flush of New Labour (along with one out of three in that very first all-out election). Rainford, with its plethora of private housing estates, is a desirable residential area for commuters to both Liverpool and St Helens; its ward was 86% owner occupied at the time of the latest available census housing statistics, and had over 39% in the professional and managerial occupation categories, compared with 26% for the seat as a whole. The parents of siblings Keith Chegwin and Janice Long moved from Bootle to Rainford after the success of the former (aged 12) in the London West End musical Mame (with Ginger Rogers) in 1969. In May 2022 the Conservatives defeated Labour by 57% to 43% in a straight fight (Labour put only one candidate for two council places).
If Rainford feels like part of Merseyside (and its cricket club does take part in the Liverpool Competition league), Billing and Seneley Green ward is, literally, Lancashire-accented, and looks, if anywhere in particular, towards Wigan. It was also Independently minded in local elections in 2022, electing two such candidates to Labour’s one; however it was solidly Labour between 1990 and 2021 and before then elected Tories only in their peak years such as 1975-79. Haydock, on the other hand, population 11,000 and known for its racecourse, has migrated from Labour, through a dalliance with the Liberal Democrats between 2004 and 2007, to elect none but Green Party candidates since 2019. It is one of only two wards to do so in St Helens borough – and the only one in this seat. The Greens convincingly took all three Haydock seats in the all out elections on new ward boundaries in May 2022. In Newton-le-Willows East, Labour returned all three candidates, but in Newton-le-Willows West (which is essentially, Earlestown), Independents took two and Labour one. Generally, though, Earlestown, which had 25.5% social rented housing between its two census MOAs in 2021, has been the more loyal to Labour in local elections, and probably still is in national contests, while East (Newton town) elected Liberal Democrats continuously between 1996 and 2011.
Unlike the variation in the ‘outer’ wards, those in St Helens have all been solidly Labour, at least in the past ten years or so. Windle in the north west of the town, named after the brook that flows through it, is traditionally one of its most attractive residential areas, solidly (70%) owner occupied and mainly semi-detached, with over 30% professional and managerial workers. However, though mainly Tory until 2008, Labour has won ever since. This is not so much due to Windle declining – pleasant housing such as that down Dartmouth Drive has still been built recently – as the dealignment between class and relative affluence and party voting. In a very different kind of area, though also with new-build housing, Labour also looks set to do well in the new ward of Peasley Cross & Fingerpost, a redevelopment area much nearer the centre of St Helens
docs.planning.org.uk/20220808/149/RFQKFYPEI3Z00/haiuwo7m172zp0za.pdf
In its inaugural contest in 2022 Labour took 60% here, with 20% each for the Greens and the Conservatives; though as yet there is both a small electorate and a low turnout, and only a little over 500 votes were cast for a single councillor.
In more established working class wards, Labour’s record of success is long standing. Blackbrook (on the way north east to Haydock) has elected no other candidates in its fifty years of contests since the creation of the metropolitan borough. Moss Bank, the large neighbourhood that is one of the more often visited parts of St Helens due to its position straddling the A580 ‘East Lancs Road’, has stopped choosing the Liberal Democrats as it did up to 2008. Finally, the real stronghold in the seat is Parr, switched from St Helens South in 2010. Very much the east end of the town, Parr still had 60% social rented housing in its local area (OA) data in 2021, over 40% in routine and semi-routine occupations, and as many as 47% without educational qualifications. Labour haven’t lost in Parr ward since 1992 and in 2022 (there were no municipal elections in 2023) two of their candidates were in effect elected unopposed as only one Conservative took a nominal, and minimal stance against them.
The stable population in this part of North West England means that no boundary changes at all have been recommended by the 2023 commission. St Helens is not one of the better known or more visited parts of the nation. Compared with a near neighbour Warrington, for example, it is less at the heart of the motorway network and has seen far less commercial development and population growth. It is hardly cosmopolitan: with 96%, it ranks 7th out if all seats for the proportion born in England. It is similarly high up the ranks of self-ascribed Christians – this too makes it seem somewhat old-fashioned given the trends away from religion noted in the most recent census. St Helens and the other communities in this seat still seem repositories of traditional and largely working class culture, such as rugby league and, indeed, darts. In the 2023 world championships of the latter there were representatives in the last 16 of far flung places such as Portugal, Belgium and Germany (shades of a recent world cup in a much more fashionable game) – but three of the top English players were all from St Helens; and if listening on TV to one of the more distinctive commentators, Stuart Pyke, well, he’s from St Helens too. Labour have not been beaten in a St Helens seat (or Newton) since 1931, and suffered only a five per cent swing in December 2019. Therefore even this, slightly the less safe of the two divisions, now has a much larger majority than, say, Wigan. English players may not win either football or darts world championships, but Labour will yet again hit the bullseye in St Helens next time.
2011 Census, ranks / UK
Age 65+ 17.5% 365/650
Owner-occupied 67.3% 314/650
Private rented 9.3% 603/650
Social rented 21.4% 181/650
White 98.4% 72/650
Black 0.1% 610/650
Asian 0.8% 576 /650
Christian 78.7% 7/573
Born in England 96.0% 7/650
Managerial & professional 26.2%
Routine & Semi-routine 32.6%
Degree level 20.7% 483/650
No qualifications 27.7% 152/650
Students 6.4% 396/650
2021 Census, ranks / England and Wales, new boundaries
Age 65+ 20.8% 213/575
Owner occupied 66.0% 288/575
Private rented 13.5% 508/575
Social rented 20.5% 135/575
White 96.9% 71/575
Black 0.4% 479/575
Asian 1.2% 499/575
Christian 62.3% 14/575
Managerial & professional 28.4% 405/575
Routine & Semi-routine 29.7% 89/575
Degree level 27.0% 434/575
No qualifications 21.3% 140/575
Students 4.8% 441/575
General Election 2019: St Helens North
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Conor McGinn 24,870 52.3 −11.4
Conservative Joel Charles 12,661 26.6 −0.5
Brexit Party Malcolm Webster 5,396 11.3 New
Liberal Democrats Pat Moloney 2,668 5.6 +3.0
Green David Van Der Burg 1,966 4.1 +1.7
Lab Majority 12,209 25.7 −10.9
2019 electorate 75,593
Turnout 47,561 62.9 −3.1
Labour hold
Swing 5.4 Lab to C
Boundary Changes and 2019 notional results
N/A, unchanged seat
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-west/North%20West_267_St%20Helens%20North_Landscape.pdf
