Post by Robert Waller on Jul 20, 2023 14:15:12 GMT
The New Forest is not at all new. It was in essence a creation of William the Conqueror after the Norman invasion of England, probably sometime in the 1070s. Nor should ‘forest’ be strictly interpreted as a large area of trees, and indeed the modern National Park has extensive heathland interspersed among the woods. In the Middle Ages, the word implied much more a preserve set aside for royal use, especially their favourite pastime of hunting, with restrictive and often much resented laws. Nearly a thousand years later, most of the New Forest is still owned by the Crown, though the rights of the so called Commoners who occupy the land are now much stronger and are specifically protected by the Court of Verderers. The forest is also now a well known tourist destination, and indeed can seem overrun with visitors on a sunny summer day. The New Forest West constituency includes the heart of the forest itself around Burley and the two largest towns closely associated with it, Ringwood and the port (Isle of Wight Ferry; Yacht Club) of Lymington.
However, like New Forest East, it does extend beyond the strict limits of the forest to include other territory. It extends north to Fordingbridge up one of the river Avons (the one that flows through Salisbury, not Stratford or Bristol). In effect, this constituency covers south west Hampshire, as at present defined, given the change of the boundary with Dorset in 1974. It also includes part of the coast east of Bournemouth, including New Milton, which is actually the largest community in the constituency, even if its inland parish of Bashley is not included in its population total. Unlike in New Forest East, these non-forest sections do not have Liberal Democrat tendencies, and they also contribute heavily to another different characteristic of the seat as a whole, which is its fairly extreme age profile. In the 2021 census, this seat ranked 3rd out of the 576 (on new boundaries, though New Forest West itself is completely unaltered) in England and Wales in its proportion of those aged 65 or over, at 33.3% - and this percentage would be even more marked if actual voters are considered, given that turnout generally rises with age. On the coast Barton MSOA recorded 50.5% over 65, and Milford and Lymington South 46% - these would clearly have a substantial majority of voters who are pensioners.
In the 2019 general election, the correlation of Conservative voting with rising age was stronger than ever before, mainly because of the level of support for the chief issue of Brexit; New Forest West is not estimated to be much more inclined to Brexit than average, but there are other indicators of its very strong inclination to Conservatism. It ranks 3rd out of 576 for housing ‘owned outright’, that is without need of a mortgage (49.6%) – which is probably connected with the age pattern, but also the low provision of social housing, at just 10% of all housing stock.
In the most recent local council contests, in May 2023, the Conservatives were unsuccessful in some fo the wards (which were on new boundaries for that election), but the opposition was very much split. The Greens won in Downlands & Forest North ward, and also took a seat in the lengthily named Bransgore, Burley, Sopley & Ringwood East. The other seat there was won by an Independent as was one of the two in Lymington town. The Liberal Democrats returned both councillors in Pennington, a suburb of Lymington, and also won in Fordingbridge. Finally Labour’s only representative on the council was elected in a split in Ringwood North, which includes one of the few small concentrations of social rented housing in the seat, in the Poulner neighbourhood. But the Tories remained rock solid on the coast, in Milford & Hordle, Milton, Barton and Becton. Even if in an appalling year overall for the Conservatives nationally, as 2024 may well be, they would need to lose over 13% of the share of vote even to drop below an absolute majority, and even then all three other main contenders (LD, Labour and Green) have a reasonable base here and may well split the resulting benefit. New Forest West still looks utterly safe.
Unlike the East section of the New Forest, this seat has never seen a hint of marginality or Conservative vulnerability. Its first contest, in 1997, was the closest, and even then Desmond Swayne (its only ever representative) won by 11,332 (22.8%). It has fairly consistently become safer at each election since. UKIP finished second in 2015 and Labour in 2017, but in 2019 the Liberal Democrats regained the (distant) second place they had held from 1997 to 2010. The Greens achieved a respectable 3,888 votes and saved their deposit, but Swayne won by over 24,000. In the 1990s Michael Dobbs drama House of Cards, New Forest was the constituency of the fictional Machiavellian Tory Francis Urquhart. It was presumably picked as an archetypal safe seat rather than for any more sinister reasons. After the division of the united seat in 1997, most of it went into New Forest West – which has satisfied the requirement for ultra-safety, but definitely not for drama.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 29.4% 4/650
Owner-occupied 74.8% 74/650
Private rented 12.8% 403/650
Social rented 10.2% 575/650
White 97.8% 152/650
Black 0.2% 544/650
Asian 1.0% 527/650
Managerial & professional 35.5%
Routine & Semi-routine 23.0%
Degree level 28.8% 216/650
No qualifications 22.1% 361/650
Students 5.1% 627/650
2021 Census
Age 65+ 33.3% 3/575
Owner occupied 74.9% 57/575
Owner occupied outright 49.6% 3/575
Private rented 15.2% 432/575
Social rented 9.9% 523/575
White 96.9% 75/575
Black 0.3% 535/575
Asian 1.3% 480/575
Managerial & professional 37.1% 173/575
Routine & Semi-routine 21.0% 390/575
Degree level 32.8% 269/575
No qualifications 16.3% 363/575
Students 3.9% 559/575
General Election 2019: New Forest West
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Desmond Swayne 32,113 63.8 -3.0
Liberal Democrats Jack Davies 7,710 15.3 +5.7
Labour Jo Graham 6,595 13.1 -6.5
Green Nicholas Bubb 3,888 7.7 +4.8
C Majority 24,403 48.5 +1.3
Turnout 50,556 71.3 -1.8
Conservative hold
Swing 4.4 C to LD
Boundary changes and 2019 notional results
N/A
In the initial, revised and final proposals of the Boundary Commission for England '2023 review' the boundaries of New Forest West were wholly unchanged.
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_343_New%20Forest%20West_Portrait.pdf
However, like New Forest East, it does extend beyond the strict limits of the forest to include other territory. It extends north to Fordingbridge up one of the river Avons (the one that flows through Salisbury, not Stratford or Bristol). In effect, this constituency covers south west Hampshire, as at present defined, given the change of the boundary with Dorset in 1974. It also includes part of the coast east of Bournemouth, including New Milton, which is actually the largest community in the constituency, even if its inland parish of Bashley is not included in its population total. Unlike in New Forest East, these non-forest sections do not have Liberal Democrat tendencies, and they also contribute heavily to another different characteristic of the seat as a whole, which is its fairly extreme age profile. In the 2021 census, this seat ranked 3rd out of the 576 (on new boundaries, though New Forest West itself is completely unaltered) in England and Wales in its proportion of those aged 65 or over, at 33.3% - and this percentage would be even more marked if actual voters are considered, given that turnout generally rises with age. On the coast Barton MSOA recorded 50.5% over 65, and Milford and Lymington South 46% - these would clearly have a substantial majority of voters who are pensioners.
In the 2019 general election, the correlation of Conservative voting with rising age was stronger than ever before, mainly because of the level of support for the chief issue of Brexit; New Forest West is not estimated to be much more inclined to Brexit than average, but there are other indicators of its very strong inclination to Conservatism. It ranks 3rd out of 576 for housing ‘owned outright’, that is without need of a mortgage (49.6%) – which is probably connected with the age pattern, but also the low provision of social housing, at just 10% of all housing stock.
In the most recent local council contests, in May 2023, the Conservatives were unsuccessful in some fo the wards (which were on new boundaries for that election), but the opposition was very much split. The Greens won in Downlands & Forest North ward, and also took a seat in the lengthily named Bransgore, Burley, Sopley & Ringwood East. The other seat there was won by an Independent as was one of the two in Lymington town. The Liberal Democrats returned both councillors in Pennington, a suburb of Lymington, and also won in Fordingbridge. Finally Labour’s only representative on the council was elected in a split in Ringwood North, which includes one of the few small concentrations of social rented housing in the seat, in the Poulner neighbourhood. But the Tories remained rock solid on the coast, in Milford & Hordle, Milton, Barton and Becton. Even if in an appalling year overall for the Conservatives nationally, as 2024 may well be, they would need to lose over 13% of the share of vote even to drop below an absolute majority, and even then all three other main contenders (LD, Labour and Green) have a reasonable base here and may well split the resulting benefit. New Forest West still looks utterly safe.
Unlike the East section of the New Forest, this seat has never seen a hint of marginality or Conservative vulnerability. Its first contest, in 1997, was the closest, and even then Desmond Swayne (its only ever representative) won by 11,332 (22.8%). It has fairly consistently become safer at each election since. UKIP finished second in 2015 and Labour in 2017, but in 2019 the Liberal Democrats regained the (distant) second place they had held from 1997 to 2010. The Greens achieved a respectable 3,888 votes and saved their deposit, but Swayne won by over 24,000. In the 1990s Michael Dobbs drama House of Cards, New Forest was the constituency of the fictional Machiavellian Tory Francis Urquhart. It was presumably picked as an archetypal safe seat rather than for any more sinister reasons. After the division of the united seat in 1997, most of it went into New Forest West – which has satisfied the requirement for ultra-safety, but definitely not for drama.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 29.4% 4/650
Owner-occupied 74.8% 74/650
Private rented 12.8% 403/650
Social rented 10.2% 575/650
White 97.8% 152/650
Black 0.2% 544/650
Asian 1.0% 527/650
Managerial & professional 35.5%
Routine & Semi-routine 23.0%
Degree level 28.8% 216/650
No qualifications 22.1% 361/650
Students 5.1% 627/650
2021 Census
Age 65+ 33.3% 3/575
Owner occupied 74.9% 57/575
Owner occupied outright 49.6% 3/575
Private rented 15.2% 432/575
Social rented 9.9% 523/575
White 96.9% 75/575
Black 0.3% 535/575
Asian 1.3% 480/575
Managerial & professional 37.1% 173/575
Routine & Semi-routine 21.0% 390/575
Degree level 32.8% 269/575
No qualifications 16.3% 363/575
Students 3.9% 559/575
General Election 2019: New Forest West
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Desmond Swayne 32,113 63.8 -3.0
Liberal Democrats Jack Davies 7,710 15.3 +5.7
Labour Jo Graham 6,595 13.1 -6.5
Green Nicholas Bubb 3,888 7.7 +4.8
C Majority 24,403 48.5 +1.3
Turnout 50,556 71.3 -1.8
Conservative hold
Swing 4.4 C to LD
Boundary changes and 2019 notional results
N/A
In the initial, revised and final proposals of the Boundary Commission for England '2023 review' the boundaries of New Forest West were wholly unchanged.
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_343_New%20Forest%20West_Portrait.pdf
