Post by Robert Waller on Jul 19, 2023 17:26:25 GMT
In the initial, revised and final proposals of the Boundary Commission for England '2023 review' Southampton Test's boundaries were wholly unchanged.
For many decades after the division of the two-member Southampton constituency into individual seats in 1950, Test was less favourable to Labour than Itchen. For example, it was won by the Conservatives in the general elections of 1955, 1959, 1964, 1970, February 1974, 1979, 1983 and 1987, and fulfilled the conditions for a bellwether from 1966-2010, whereas Itchen was continuously won by Labour from 1950 to 1979 (saving only Horace King’s period as Speaker of the House of Commons) and 1992 to 2010. Yet in the last three elections the situation has reversed, as Alan Whitehead has retained Test three times while Royston Smith has won Itchen thrice for the Tories. What has caused this apparent reversal of preference? Three theories may be tested: boundary changes, the student or university vote, or possibly the reflection of the deep influence on modern British voting behaviour of ethnicity, education and specific issue voting.
Test has always been West as far as Southampton is concerned. It is named after one of the two Hampshire rivers that flow into the Southampton Water extension of the Solent here, and is situated entirely to the west of the Itchen. Test consists of the City of Southampton wards of Bevois, Coxford, Freemantle, Millbrook, Portswood, Redbridge, and Shirley. It is true that up to 1997 Test also included the most up-market residential ward in the whole of the city, Bassett on its northern fringes, which was then shifted into Romsey (now Romsey and Southampton North), as the city is a little too populous to be contained in two whole seats. The boundary with Itchen in the vicinity of the city centre has also been adjusted on occasion, but these changes are not enough to account for Test’s transformation from a slightly Tory-inclined marginal in the second half of the twentieth century to a safeish Labour seat in the twenty-first.
On the student vote, it is true that Southampton University’s main Highfield campus is situated within Test in a corner of the Portswood ward, and the constituency did rank 44th in the rank order of full time students at the time of the 2021 Census. However, Itchen , in 75th place, is not very much lower, with the impact of the new 1100 room Southampton University Mayflower halls of residence in Bargate ward; and the campus of Southampton Solent University is also in Itchen. So the divergence does not seem to be so strong on this variable. Nor are there strong differences in occupational class or housing tenure, even though traditionally Test has been regarded as the less working class of the seats. However Test is decidedly more ethnically mixed, with 77% white residents compared with Itchen’s 86%, and an even larger gap (12%, 63% to 75% on the more detailed ‘white British’ variable). Test has the younger age profile. Also 33% of Test adults have education to at least degree level, which may be related to the impact of Brexit. Itchen is estimated to have voted around 60-40 to leave, Test to be close to 50-50. Perhaps as that divisive issue fades, it might be asked whether the gap between the political outcomes in the two Southampton constituencies may close.
Labour’s stronger performance in Test was, however, still reflected in the May 2023 council election results, the most recent contests in the city, which were presumably less dominated by the European issue. Thanks to our Vote UK Forum local correspondent Sharon for her valuable results service that she has kindly shared
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oDTogRb99CrEiHAshnl-yp3zeLzgp6Qv9YXchAQIrZs/edit#gid=0In
In 2023 Labour won all but two of the wards of the seven wards entirely within the Test constituency outright (although will be no changes in the parliamentary lines, the council wards have now been redistributed, leading to some split wards as can be seen from Sharon’s sheet*), In the other two Labour did still return councillors, being bested only by the Green Katherine Barbour in Portswood and by two Conservatives in Millbrook (interestingly a ward with higher deprivation - 41% of its population in the most deprived fifth compared with a city-wide average of 28% - and lower educational levels than the city norm), while the Tories won seven seats in Itchen. Adding up all the votes in the purely Test wards Labour were over 11,000 ahead in Test but less than 2,000 in Itchen (scroll right on the spreadsheet).
The exchange of political characteristics between the two Southampton seats seems to be well set, and perhaps illustrative of the major and fascinating change in British politics, as the traditional class cleavage that for so long underpinned the nature and shape of the two party system has fundamentally evolved and weakened. Southampton has long been a rather typical English city, and this is no exception. Even though Labour must be strong favourites to regain Itchen at the next general election, their majority in Test is likely to be substantially larger. Both Southampton MPs have announced their retirement, but as Alan Whitehead’s replacement as Labour candidate here Satvir Kaur is almost certain to become the city’s first female and ethnic minority representative at Westminster – as befits what has increasingly become in the 21st century its more politically progressive and socially cosmopolitan half.
*New ward map here
www.southampton.gov.uk/council-democracy/councillors/wards-map
General election 2019: Southampton Test
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Alan Whitehead 22,256 49.5 -9.2
Conservative Steven Galton 16,043 35.7 +1.6
Liberal Democrats Joe Richards 3,449 7.7 +3.7
Brexit Party Philip Crook 1,591 3.5 N/A
Green Katherine Barbour 1,433 3.2 N/A
Independent Kev Barry 222 0.5 N/A
Lab Majority 6,213 13.8 -10.8
Turnout 44,994 64.2 -2.6
Labour hold Swing 5.4 Lab to C
2011 Census (ranks UK)
Age 65+ 11.7 576/650
Owner-occupied 46.3 599/650
Private rented 28.7 43/650
Social rented 23.1 143/650
White 83.1 512/650
Black 2.5 153/650
Asian 10.7 108/650
Managerial & professional 26.1
Routine & Semi-routine 26.9
Degree level 26.9 280/650
No qualifications 21.0 409/650
Students 17.2 49/650
2021 Census (ranks England and Wales)
Age 65+ 12.9% 497/575
Owner occupied 45.0% 530/575
Private rented 33.4% 44/575
Social rented 21.6% 118/575
White 77.3% 431/575
Black 3.4% 122/575
Asian 13.3% 168/575
Managerial & professional 27.5% 437/575
Routine & Semi-routine 26.0% 210/575
Degree level 33.4% 246/575
No qualifications 17.9% 268/575
Students 13.9% 44/575
Boundary Changes and Notional Results
N/A seat unchanged in review
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_361_Southampton%20Test_Landscape.pdf
For many decades after the division of the two-member Southampton constituency into individual seats in 1950, Test was less favourable to Labour than Itchen. For example, it was won by the Conservatives in the general elections of 1955, 1959, 1964, 1970, February 1974, 1979, 1983 and 1987, and fulfilled the conditions for a bellwether from 1966-2010, whereas Itchen was continuously won by Labour from 1950 to 1979 (saving only Horace King’s period as Speaker of the House of Commons) and 1992 to 2010. Yet in the last three elections the situation has reversed, as Alan Whitehead has retained Test three times while Royston Smith has won Itchen thrice for the Tories. What has caused this apparent reversal of preference? Three theories may be tested: boundary changes, the student or university vote, or possibly the reflection of the deep influence on modern British voting behaviour of ethnicity, education and specific issue voting.
Test has always been West as far as Southampton is concerned. It is named after one of the two Hampshire rivers that flow into the Southampton Water extension of the Solent here, and is situated entirely to the west of the Itchen. Test consists of the City of Southampton wards of Bevois, Coxford, Freemantle, Millbrook, Portswood, Redbridge, and Shirley. It is true that up to 1997 Test also included the most up-market residential ward in the whole of the city, Bassett on its northern fringes, which was then shifted into Romsey (now Romsey and Southampton North), as the city is a little too populous to be contained in two whole seats. The boundary with Itchen in the vicinity of the city centre has also been adjusted on occasion, but these changes are not enough to account for Test’s transformation from a slightly Tory-inclined marginal in the second half of the twentieth century to a safeish Labour seat in the twenty-first.
On the student vote, it is true that Southampton University’s main Highfield campus is situated within Test in a corner of the Portswood ward, and the constituency did rank 44th in the rank order of full time students at the time of the 2021 Census. However, Itchen , in 75th place, is not very much lower, with the impact of the new 1100 room Southampton University Mayflower halls of residence in Bargate ward; and the campus of Southampton Solent University is also in Itchen. So the divergence does not seem to be so strong on this variable. Nor are there strong differences in occupational class or housing tenure, even though traditionally Test has been regarded as the less working class of the seats. However Test is decidedly more ethnically mixed, with 77% white residents compared with Itchen’s 86%, and an even larger gap (12%, 63% to 75% on the more detailed ‘white British’ variable). Test has the younger age profile. Also 33% of Test adults have education to at least degree level, which may be related to the impact of Brexit. Itchen is estimated to have voted around 60-40 to leave, Test to be close to 50-50. Perhaps as that divisive issue fades, it might be asked whether the gap between the political outcomes in the two Southampton constituencies may close.
Labour’s stronger performance in Test was, however, still reflected in the May 2023 council election results, the most recent contests in the city, which were presumably less dominated by the European issue. Thanks to our Vote UK Forum local correspondent Sharon for her valuable results service that she has kindly shared
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oDTogRb99CrEiHAshnl-yp3zeLzgp6Qv9YXchAQIrZs/edit#gid=0In
In 2023 Labour won all but two of the wards of the seven wards entirely within the Test constituency outright (although will be no changes in the parliamentary lines, the council wards have now been redistributed, leading to some split wards as can be seen from Sharon’s sheet*), In the other two Labour did still return councillors, being bested only by the Green Katherine Barbour in Portswood and by two Conservatives in Millbrook (interestingly a ward with higher deprivation - 41% of its population in the most deprived fifth compared with a city-wide average of 28% - and lower educational levels than the city norm), while the Tories won seven seats in Itchen. Adding up all the votes in the purely Test wards Labour were over 11,000 ahead in Test but less than 2,000 in Itchen (scroll right on the spreadsheet).
The exchange of political characteristics between the two Southampton seats seems to be well set, and perhaps illustrative of the major and fascinating change in British politics, as the traditional class cleavage that for so long underpinned the nature and shape of the two party system has fundamentally evolved and weakened. Southampton has long been a rather typical English city, and this is no exception. Even though Labour must be strong favourites to regain Itchen at the next general election, their majority in Test is likely to be substantially larger. Both Southampton MPs have announced their retirement, but as Alan Whitehead’s replacement as Labour candidate here Satvir Kaur is almost certain to become the city’s first female and ethnic minority representative at Westminster – as befits what has increasingly become in the 21st century its more politically progressive and socially cosmopolitan half.
*New ward map here
www.southampton.gov.uk/council-democracy/councillors/wards-map
General election 2019: Southampton Test
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Alan Whitehead 22,256 49.5 -9.2
Conservative Steven Galton 16,043 35.7 +1.6
Liberal Democrats Joe Richards 3,449 7.7 +3.7
Brexit Party Philip Crook 1,591 3.5 N/A
Green Katherine Barbour 1,433 3.2 N/A
Independent Kev Barry 222 0.5 N/A
Lab Majority 6,213 13.8 -10.8
Turnout 44,994 64.2 -2.6
Labour hold Swing 5.4 Lab to C
2011 Census (ranks UK)
Age 65+ 11.7 576/650
Owner-occupied 46.3 599/650
Private rented 28.7 43/650
Social rented 23.1 143/650
White 83.1 512/650
Black 2.5 153/650
Asian 10.7 108/650
Managerial & professional 26.1
Routine & Semi-routine 26.9
Degree level 26.9 280/650
No qualifications 21.0 409/650
Students 17.2 49/650
2021 Census (ranks England and Wales)
Age 65+ 12.9% 497/575
Owner occupied 45.0% 530/575
Private rented 33.4% 44/575
Social rented 21.6% 118/575
White 77.3% 431/575
Black 3.4% 122/575
Asian 13.3% 168/575
Managerial & professional 27.5% 437/575
Routine & Semi-routine 26.0% 210/575
Degree level 33.4% 246/575
No qualifications 17.9% 268/575
Students 13.9% 44/575
Boundary Changes and Notional Results
N/A seat unchanged in review
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_361_Southampton%20Test_Landscape.pdf