Post by Robert Waller on Jul 18, 2023 10:01:55 GMT
A ‘bellwether’ is a sheep that leads the herd; so by extension a bellwether seat is one which is reliably won by whichever party wins the general election as a whole. It is true that High Peak changed hands in 1997, 2010, 2019 and most recently in 2024. However it is not a true bellwether, as the constituency has gradually shifted over recent decades from being a somewhat Tory-inclined marginal to one more inclined to Labour in an even year - for example, Labour rather surprisingly had gained the seat in 2017, and it was no surprise when they did so again in 2024. The reason for this is instructive, and based on the shift away from voting predominantly on class lines to issue-based preference, in particular recently that of Britain’s relationship with Europe. However these preferences are themselves linked to a changing alignment, less focused on occupational class and more on education and identity, for example - which means that the development of new and different political preferences will probably outlast the specific Brexit bifurcation.
Nevertheless the recent Labour vote in a seat is positively correlated with a ‘Remain’ choice in the 2016 referendum, and with associated demographic variables. A majority in High Peak did vote to leave, but only a narrow majority, estimated at 50.5%. Thus the seat was slightly more pro-European than average in Britain, and rather more than average in England – and this is reflected in High Peak’s 2019 result being stronger for Labour than average in England, even though the left wing MP Ruth George lost by 590 votes. The swing that elected Robert Largan was only 2.7% Labour to Tory, around half the national average. High Peak is currently in the top ten on the Labour target list, requiring a swing back of just over one half of one per cent. There are no alterations in the 2023 boundary review, as, with an electorate in 2019 of 74,343, it was close to the quota for England.
Another reason why there was little scope for significant boundary changes is that the constituency is in effect the wedge that is north-west Derbyshire. It contains most of the northern half of the Peak District, designated in 1951 as Britain’s first National Park – most of the southern half, also known as the ‘White Peak’ because of its limestone base compared with the north’s ‘Dark Peak’ millstone grit, is in the seat of Derbyshire Dales, though the National Park spills over into Staffordshire, Cheshire and Yorkshire as well. At over 1,000 feet, Buxton claims to be the highest town in England, and can be cut off by snow even in 21st century winters. Traditionally the reason why High Peak, which contains some very attractive scenery such as the Hope Valley and Edale, southern terminus of the Pennine Way, was not safely Tory is that over 80% of its population live in five small towns – though that pattern has been changing in recent years.
The historically mill-based communities of Glossop and New Mills look as if they belong in Lancashire or Yorkshire, and share the owner-occupied marginality of the more northern Pennines; indeed no part of the seat really feels as if it should be in the East Midlands region, looking to Manchester and to an extent Sheffield = but not Derby at the other end of the county. Chapel-en-le-Frith is dominated by Ferodo, long regarded as the single largest employer in the seat (in the unglamorous business of stopping heavy vehicles by manufacturing brake linings). Whaley Bridge has been increasingly popular with Manchester communities. The town of Buxton appears starkly divided. In the western half of the town are to be found the mansions to which the Victorians retired to take the waters, and the facilities that were developed – the Frank Matcham designed Opera House, a Crescent that would not look out of place in Bath (especially since its long-delayed restoration has been completed), the giant dome of the Devonshire Royal Hospital, now part of the University of Derby, which has had a campus in the town since 1998.
However, the centre of Britain’s limestone quarrying industry lies in the white-scarred landscape around Buxton, and Buxton’s east end, Fairfield, has usually harboured a high proportion, if low turnout, Labour vote, particularly in Stone Bench ward, and Buxton’s Central ward has also trended strongly long term towards Labour. The other Labour strongholds in the High Peak include Gamesley, a windy Manchester overspill estate on a hill outside Glossop, and Hadfield, a large village north of Glossop where the late multiple Booker winner Hilary Mantel grew up.
Some of the Conservatives’ better chances lie in the villages of the seat, such as the touristy Castleton in the Hope Valley (although in local council elections the Greens have had significant success here, returning both Hope Valley councillors in May 2019 and retaining in 2023 with a further 6% swing) and in the 'Limestone Peak' around Peak Dale and Peak Forest, which they did win with a 60% share in 2023. In those most recent High Peak borough elections, though (the council is coterminous with the constituency) the Conservatives lost six of their sixteen council seats, including some for the very first time to Labour, such as the rural St John ward, based on Charlesworth west of Glossop, the village of Hayfield, birthplace of the actor Arthur Lowe, under the slope of Kinder Scout, and base camp for the mass trespass of 1932, and Burbage at the west end of Buxton.
They still held the south Buxton ward of Cote Heath, where they had made a gain against the national tide in a byelection in April 2022 – this is a ward which has been trending in the opposite direction from central and west Buxton, having been Labour more often than not in the 1950s and 1960; this is partly because south is the one direction Buxton’s housing can expand for geographic reasons, and partly because it is less highly educated. Cote Heath includes the somewhat downmarket new and newish private estates of the Foxlow Park neighbourhood and the gritty and (even more) lofty former quarrying village of Harpur Hill, as well as the social housing estate just south of Cote Heath Park itself. Those unfamiliar with those modern realignments would never think it is now the most Conservative part of Buxton, while most of the residents of its elegant spa area, with tree lined boulevards and huge houses, have a Labour councillor.
In Whaley Bridge, severely affected by flooding when large numbers were evacuated in August 2019 over fears that Toddbrook Reservoir’s dam might collapse, the former Labour MP Ruth George was very convincingly returned to Derbyshire County Council in a byelection in February 2020. Ms George wasn't the candidate in the next general election - Jon Pearce was selected in December 2022 - but Labour was in a strong position to return in a seat which has shown a favourable long-term movement. This is not because the seat has in any sense moved down the social and economic scale, as would once have been relevant, but almost the reverse: generally rising levels of education (including the university) and affluence (property values have risen above average over the last thirty years), a greater role as a commuter base, and a distinct sense of gentrification are all, arguably, now better portents for Labour than the Conservatives. Given all this, the swing in July 2024, at 8.6% was actually below the national average and smaller than many predicted. The incumbent Robert Largan's energetic and personal campaign (playing down his party connection) may have played a part in this, along with Labour's better than average performance in the preceding general elections.
2024 General Election
2019 General Election
Robert Largan C 24844 45.9 +0.5
Ruth George Lab 24254 44.8 -4.9
LD 2750 5.1 +0.1
Brexit 1177 2.2
Green 1148 2.1
C maj 590 1.1
Electorate 74,343
Turnout 72.9%
Swing 2.7 Lab to C
2011 Census
/650 UK, current boundaries
Age 65+ 17.2% 283/650
Owner-occupied 72.0% 160/650
Private rented 13.4% 372/650
Social rented 12.7% 455/650
White 97.9% 141/650
Black 0.2% 530/650
Asian 0.8% 571/650
Managerial & professional 33.1%
Routine & Semi-routine 25.7%
Degree level 29.4% 203/650
No qualifications 20.9% 423/650
Students 6.8% 321/650
2021 Census
/575 England and Wales, new boundaries
Age 65+ 21.8% 171/575
Owner occupied 71.6% 137/575
Private rented 16.2% 376/575
Social rented 12.2% 422/575
White 97.5% 38/575
Black 0.2% 529/575
Asian 0.8% 553/575
Managerial & professional 35.7% 206/575
Routine & Semi-routine 24.4% 262/575
Degree level 35.6% 189/575
No qualifications 14.9% 423/575
Students 4.7% 464/575
Boundary Changes and Notional Results
N/A no changes
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/east-midlands/East%20Midlands_018_High%20Peak_Portrait.pdf
Nevertheless the recent Labour vote in a seat is positively correlated with a ‘Remain’ choice in the 2016 referendum, and with associated demographic variables. A majority in High Peak did vote to leave, but only a narrow majority, estimated at 50.5%. Thus the seat was slightly more pro-European than average in Britain, and rather more than average in England – and this is reflected in High Peak’s 2019 result being stronger for Labour than average in England, even though the left wing MP Ruth George lost by 590 votes. The swing that elected Robert Largan was only 2.7% Labour to Tory, around half the national average. High Peak is currently in the top ten on the Labour target list, requiring a swing back of just over one half of one per cent. There are no alterations in the 2023 boundary review, as, with an electorate in 2019 of 74,343, it was close to the quota for England.
Another reason why there was little scope for significant boundary changes is that the constituency is in effect the wedge that is north-west Derbyshire. It contains most of the northern half of the Peak District, designated in 1951 as Britain’s first National Park – most of the southern half, also known as the ‘White Peak’ because of its limestone base compared with the north’s ‘Dark Peak’ millstone grit, is in the seat of Derbyshire Dales, though the National Park spills over into Staffordshire, Cheshire and Yorkshire as well. At over 1,000 feet, Buxton claims to be the highest town in England, and can be cut off by snow even in 21st century winters. Traditionally the reason why High Peak, which contains some very attractive scenery such as the Hope Valley and Edale, southern terminus of the Pennine Way, was not safely Tory is that over 80% of its population live in five small towns – though that pattern has been changing in recent years.
The historically mill-based communities of Glossop and New Mills look as if they belong in Lancashire or Yorkshire, and share the owner-occupied marginality of the more northern Pennines; indeed no part of the seat really feels as if it should be in the East Midlands region, looking to Manchester and to an extent Sheffield = but not Derby at the other end of the county. Chapel-en-le-Frith is dominated by Ferodo, long regarded as the single largest employer in the seat (in the unglamorous business of stopping heavy vehicles by manufacturing brake linings). Whaley Bridge has been increasingly popular with Manchester communities. The town of Buxton appears starkly divided. In the western half of the town are to be found the mansions to which the Victorians retired to take the waters, and the facilities that were developed – the Frank Matcham designed Opera House, a Crescent that would not look out of place in Bath (especially since its long-delayed restoration has been completed), the giant dome of the Devonshire Royal Hospital, now part of the University of Derby, which has had a campus in the town since 1998.
However, the centre of Britain’s limestone quarrying industry lies in the white-scarred landscape around Buxton, and Buxton’s east end, Fairfield, has usually harboured a high proportion, if low turnout, Labour vote, particularly in Stone Bench ward, and Buxton’s Central ward has also trended strongly long term towards Labour. The other Labour strongholds in the High Peak include Gamesley, a windy Manchester overspill estate on a hill outside Glossop, and Hadfield, a large village north of Glossop where the late multiple Booker winner Hilary Mantel grew up.
Some of the Conservatives’ better chances lie in the villages of the seat, such as the touristy Castleton in the Hope Valley (although in local council elections the Greens have had significant success here, returning both Hope Valley councillors in May 2019 and retaining in 2023 with a further 6% swing) and in the 'Limestone Peak' around Peak Dale and Peak Forest, which they did win with a 60% share in 2023. In those most recent High Peak borough elections, though (the council is coterminous with the constituency) the Conservatives lost six of their sixteen council seats, including some for the very first time to Labour, such as the rural St John ward, based on Charlesworth west of Glossop, the village of Hayfield, birthplace of the actor Arthur Lowe, under the slope of Kinder Scout, and base camp for the mass trespass of 1932, and Burbage at the west end of Buxton.
They still held the south Buxton ward of Cote Heath, where they had made a gain against the national tide in a byelection in April 2022 – this is a ward which has been trending in the opposite direction from central and west Buxton, having been Labour more often than not in the 1950s and 1960; this is partly because south is the one direction Buxton’s housing can expand for geographic reasons, and partly because it is less highly educated. Cote Heath includes the somewhat downmarket new and newish private estates of the Foxlow Park neighbourhood and the gritty and (even more) lofty former quarrying village of Harpur Hill, as well as the social housing estate just south of Cote Heath Park itself. Those unfamiliar with those modern realignments would never think it is now the most Conservative part of Buxton, while most of the residents of its elegant spa area, with tree lined boulevards and huge houses, have a Labour councillor.
In Whaley Bridge, severely affected by flooding when large numbers were evacuated in August 2019 over fears that Toddbrook Reservoir’s dam might collapse, the former Labour MP Ruth George was very convincingly returned to Derbyshire County Council in a byelection in February 2020. Ms George wasn't the candidate in the next general election - Jon Pearce was selected in December 2022 - but Labour was in a strong position to return in a seat which has shown a favourable long-term movement. This is not because the seat has in any sense moved down the social and economic scale, as would once have been relevant, but almost the reverse: generally rising levels of education (including the university) and affluence (property values have risen above average over the last thirty years), a greater role as a commuter base, and a distinct sense of gentrification are all, arguably, now better portents for Labour than the Conservatives. Given all this, the swing in July 2024, at 8.6% was actually below the national average and smaller than many predicted. The incumbent Robert Largan's energetic and personal campaign (playing down his party connection) may have played a part in this, along with Labour's better than average performance in the preceding general elections.
2024 General Election
| Lab | 22533 | 45.8% |
| Con | 14625 | 29.7% |
| Reform | 6959 | 14.1% |
| Green | 3382 | 6.9% |
| LD | 1707 | 3.5% |
| | ||
| | ||
| Lab Majority | 7908 | 16.1% |
2019 General Election
Robert Largan C 24844 45.9 +0.5
Ruth George Lab 24254 44.8 -4.9
LD 2750 5.1 +0.1
Brexit 1177 2.2
Green 1148 2.1
C maj 590 1.1
Electorate 74,343
Turnout 72.9%
Swing 2.7 Lab to C
2011 Census
/650 UK, current boundaries
Age 65+ 17.2% 283/650
Owner-occupied 72.0% 160/650
Private rented 13.4% 372/650
Social rented 12.7% 455/650
White 97.9% 141/650
Black 0.2% 530/650
Asian 0.8% 571/650
Managerial & professional 33.1%
Routine & Semi-routine 25.7%
Degree level 29.4% 203/650
No qualifications 20.9% 423/650
Students 6.8% 321/650
2021 Census
/575 England and Wales, new boundaries
Age 65+ 21.8% 171/575
Owner occupied 71.6% 137/575
Private rented 16.2% 376/575
Social rented 12.2% 422/575
White 97.5% 38/575
Black 0.2% 529/575
Asian 0.8% 553/575
Managerial & professional 35.7% 206/575
Routine & Semi-routine 24.4% 262/575
Degree level 35.6% 189/575
No qualifications 14.9% 423/575
Students 4.7% 464/575
Boundary Changes and Notional Results
N/A no changes
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/east-midlands/East%20Midlands_018_High%20Peak_Portrait.pdf
