Post by andrewp on Jul 17, 2023 18:58:04 GMT
The boundary commission have given this constituency an expanded name but a reduced area in its final recommendations. The current Taunton Deane constituency has an electorate of 89000 so some voters needed to be lost and this is achieved by removing 13000 electors in the western rural part of the constituency around Wiveliscombe and Milverton into the new cross county Tiverton and Minehead constituency. The draft recommendations had also proposed removing more territory by moving Norton Fitzwarren and Stapegrove as well, which would have removed part of the urban Taunton area, but that was reversed following the consultation phase. The name change was deemed necessary following the abolition of Taunton Deane district council in 2019 and the name of the town of Wellington now appears in a constituency title for the first time since 1918.
The removal of those rural areas is good news for the Liberal Democrats and probably knocks 2-3000 off the current Conservative majority of 12000. The Liberal Democrats would almost certainly have won on these boundaries in 1992 and 2001, to add to their actual victories in 1997, 2005 and 2010,
Taunton Town accounts for about 2/3rds of the constituency, Taunton is the county town of Somerset and has good transport links via the M5 and A358/A303. It is the home to several relatively large Public Sector organisations including Somerset Council, the Uk hydrographic office and Musgrove Park Hospital, . It is also home to ( still, in this authors opinion) the best cricket ground in the UK.
The rest of the constituency contains the small town of Wellington, ( electorate 10,000) home to the public school whose former pupils include Lord Archer and John Cleese, and which is politically very competitive with a solid affluent South ward and a working class North ward and then villages in the Quantock Hills to the North, the Blackdown Hills to the South, and out into the Somerset levels to the East.
Between 1992 and 2015, Taunton and then Taunton Deane was a tight marginal between the Lib Dems and the Conservatives. Jackie Ballard gained the seat for the Lib Dems in 1997, only to be defeated in 2001 by the Conservative Adrian Flook, on the back of pro fox hunting voters on Exmoor. It was regained for the Lib Dems in 2005 by Jeremy Browne, who was very much from the Orange Book wing of his party and a member of the coalition government. He surprised many by standing down in 2015 and former local TV newsreader Rebecca Pow gained the seat for the Conservatives by fully 15000 votes.
Taunton town itself is pretty good for the Liberal Democrats in local elections- they are very strong in both middle class areas like Comeytrowe ( home to many County Council and NHS workers) in the South West of the Town as well as working class Halcon, and Victoria in the east of the Town. The Conservatives strongest areas of the town are in the south around Killams, Mountfields and Wilton, although they have lost these areas in their poor local election showings of 2022 and 2023. In the 2022 inaugural elections to the new Somerset Unitary council, the Lib Dems did well here. They won all the divisions in the town with the exception of sharing Bishops Hull and Taunton West with a popular Independent. Wellington was a Conservative/ Labour split and 2 Conservatives were elected in the eastern rural division of Monkton and North Curry. In the inaugural elections to the new Taunton Town council in 2023, 19 Lib Dems were elected and 1 solitary Conservative.
In 2019 there was a 3.4% swing from Conservative to Lib Dem, reducing Rebecca Pow’s majority from 15887 in 2017 ( the biggest ever Conservative majority in Taunton) down to 11700. The Lib Dems increased their vote by 7.6%, mostly by squeezing Labour back down, but the Conservative vote went up 0.7% aswell. It feels like the constituency will get closer again.
The Liberal Democrats have re selected Gideon Amos for the next General election. He has finished runner up to Conservative Rebecca Pow twice. He has a chance of making it third time lucky.
