Post by jamie on Jul 15, 2023 22:27:14 GMT
The South Shields constituency has existed since 1832 and covers the eponymous town and nearby villages. Boundary changes see the constituency gain ‘Cleadon and East Boldon’ ward from Jarrow. South Shields was once Liberal heartland but has been won by Labour at every election since 1935. At the last election Labour held the constituency with a 25% majority over the Conservatives, historically low for the area but relatively strong given the results seen in similar areas nearby. The weak 5% swing will have in large part been down to 17% going to the Brexit Party and 10% going to a high profile independent. The boundary changes will push the majority down towards 20%.
South Shields makes up a large majority of the constituency and has a long industrial history. The population exploded in the 19th century with the expansion of the port, and industries like shipbuilding and coal mining defined the area for many decades. As might be expected, Labour is by far the strongest party here at national elections. They are strongest in the town centre along with the western council estates like Biddick and Whiteleas. Westoe, despite baring the name of a colliery until 1993, is actually the most middle class part of the town and has a significant minority Conservative vote. Harton and Cleadon Park to the south, despite on paper having demographics not too far removed from very safe Labour wards elsewhere in the borough, are actually relatively favourable to the Conservatives, with the former only 4% off electing a Conservative councillor at their 2021 highpoint.
The constituency also includes a few villages between South Shields and Sunderland. Marsden and Whitburn had a colliery until 1968 and are comfortably Labour leaning. Cleadon and East Boldon, which have been transferred from Jarrow constituency, are quite markedly different. They are by far the wealthiest areas of South Tyneside, with almost all properties owner occupied and the largest elderly population in the borough. Consequently, they constitute the only ward that has voted Conservative this century, although even here Labour are capable of winning. The Greens have recently won council seats here, and also have a strong localist support in other parts of the constituency (little of it transfers to national elections though).
Looking ahead, this is obviously a safe Labour constituency. It will be interesting to see where the combined 27% support for the Brexit Party/independent goes, as in 2019 it looked rather Conservative inclined but in the present climate looks unlikely to switch to them in droves. If there are credible candidates then quite a lot of it might stick with their successors.
South Shields makes up a large majority of the constituency and has a long industrial history. The population exploded in the 19th century with the expansion of the port, and industries like shipbuilding and coal mining defined the area for many decades. As might be expected, Labour is by far the strongest party here at national elections. They are strongest in the town centre along with the western council estates like Biddick and Whiteleas. Westoe, despite baring the name of a colliery until 1993, is actually the most middle class part of the town and has a significant minority Conservative vote. Harton and Cleadon Park to the south, despite on paper having demographics not too far removed from very safe Labour wards elsewhere in the borough, are actually relatively favourable to the Conservatives, with the former only 4% off electing a Conservative councillor at their 2021 highpoint.
The constituency also includes a few villages between South Shields and Sunderland. Marsden and Whitburn had a colliery until 1968 and are comfortably Labour leaning. Cleadon and East Boldon, which have been transferred from Jarrow constituency, are quite markedly different. They are by far the wealthiest areas of South Tyneside, with almost all properties owner occupied and the largest elderly population in the borough. Consequently, they constitute the only ward that has voted Conservative this century, although even here Labour are capable of winning. The Greens have recently won council seats here, and also have a strong localist support in other parts of the constituency (little of it transfers to national elections though).
Looking ahead, this is obviously a safe Labour constituency. It will be interesting to see where the combined 27% support for the Brexit Party/independent goes, as in 2019 it looked rather Conservative inclined but in the present climate looks unlikely to switch to them in droves. If there are credible candidates then quite a lot of it might stick with their successors.
