Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 15, 2023 9:17:51 GMT
There was a Hitchin seat for nearly a century, between 1885 and 1983 and since 1997 the town was linked with Harpenden and surrounding areas. Now Hitchin gains its own seat again, but it differs greatly from the previous versions of a seat so named. Arguably the biggest difference is that this will be a cross county seat – a new development consequent upon the tight quotas laid down by the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act of 2011 – so over 30,000 new voters are brought in from Bedfordshire, the majority from the North East Bedfordshire seat, the remainder from Mid Bedfordshire.
The area coming in – the wards of Stotfold & Langford, Arlesley and Shefford – are thickly populated semi-rural wards with several small towns and enlarged villages, but Hitchin itself will be the only town of any size in this constituency now.
Previous incarnations of the Hitchin constituency included other towns, some larger and more influential than Hitchin itself. For much of the post-war period this involved the new town of Stevenage which far outgrew the eponymous town and put the seat in the Labour column for the last decade of its life in this form (1964-74). Stevenage was removed in 1974 and this tipped the seat to the Conservatives, though plenty of Labour votes remained, in Hitchin itself and especially in Letchworth but also in the smaller towns of Baldock and Royston.
Hitchin was renamed North Hertfordshire in 1983 but the form of the seat remained recognisably the same.
Then in 1997 Hitchin was separated from the other towns and the East of the North Herts district and its orientation shifted southwards, to be linked with the Northern wards of St Albans around the town of Harpenden. Labour has derisory support in this area with the Lib Dems being the main opposition to the Conservatives, and this put them out of contention in the new seat. Combined with a growing strength in parts of Hitchin itself, this put the Lib Dems into a strong second place in this strongly Remain seat in the 2019 Brexit election.
Now all the St Albans wards are removed and their replacement with the Bedfordshire wards changes the dynamic yet again.
The 40,000 plus voters in Hitchin and its surroundings represent the majority of this new seat and of the old Hitchin & Harpenden so this is the main successor seat (though a majority of voters in the new Harpenden & Berkhamsted also come from Hitchin & Harpenden).
Over 25,000 voters are in the town of Hitchin itself which has been trending away from the Conservatives for the last couple of decades. Oughton in the North West is dominated by the Westmill council estate and has always been a safe Labour ward, even withstanding the heavy losses during the late Blair-Brown governments. Bearton to the North of the town centre is every bit as safe for Labour these days and Walsworth to the East is heading that way having been marginal previously. These last two ward make up the Hitchin North County division which has become one of the safest Labour divisions in Hertfordshire. There is quite a lot of ethnic diversity here and a left-leaning middle class element with a good deal of commuting to Cambridge and London.
South Hitchin has always tended to be the better part of the town for the Conservatives but Highbury ward (which also includes the town centre) had been a Lib Dem leaning marginal for many years and now appears to be safe for them. There is only one Conservative councillor in Hitchin currently, in the Priory ward covering the very affluent South West corner of the town.
The Lib Dems gained the Hitchin South county division in 2021 for the first time and held it emphatically in a by-election in in March 2022 when they must also have carried Priory easily. They duly gained that ward a couple of months later. North Hertfordshire council will re-elect all its councillors on new ward boundaries in 2024 and it seems likely that the Conservatives will be wiped out in the town then.
There is now clearly a very large left of centre majority on the town of Hitchin – the Green party are also capable of attracting decent numbers of votes in the town.
It’s quite possible that in the 2019 general election the Lib Dems carried the town through a combination of their great strength in the South of the town and tactical voting by Labour supporters in the North. Absent that tactical voting (and indeed should it operate in reverse), Labour can expect to outpoll the Conservatives heavily in the town of Hitchin at the next election.
The Conservatives will rely on the rural areas to carry the seat, but they do not have it all their own way here. Cadwell, which covers the village of Ickleford, directly North of Hitchin has been won by the Lib Dems at the last couple of elections and Chesfield has been a longstanding marginal between Conservatives and Lib Dems where the latter party now hold both seats. Chesfield includes the rural parishes of Graveley and Wymondley but is dominated by the new parish of Great Ashby – a very modern housing estate which to all intents and purposes (but not administratively) is part of Stevenage.
The Conservative position is much stronger in the other wards - Hitchwood, Offa and Hoo is a vast division covering a large number of villages like Great Offley, Pirton, the Waldens, St Ippolyts and Lilley. Kimpton in the far south of this constituency is extremely affluent. Both these wards are safely Conservative and overall, the rural section of North Herts within this seat would usually be enough to counterbalance Hitchin.
The Bedfordshire section should be enough to seal the deal, but is not without some Labour support.
This area has been subject to frequent ward boundary changes. The previous constituencies of Mid and North East Bedfordshire were created using wards from the now long abolished Mid Bedfordshire district council. The wards used to create this constituency (Arlesey, Shefford and Stotfold & Langford) have themselves now been replaced by a new arrangement of wards which elected councillors in May 2023.
So this seat will now contain four whole wards of Central Bedfordshire and part of a fifth.
Stotfold and Arlesey & Fairfield come entirely from North East Beds. Both these wards elected Labour councillors in May 2023 although in both cases Independents topped the poll. Arlesey in particular – a former brickmaking town – has quite a strong Labour tradition. The Arlesey & Langford division was consistently Labour held on Bedfordshire county council up until the abolition of that body.
Also from North East Bedfordshire come Langford and Henlow, now combined in a new ward with Clifton, Lower Stondon and Henlow Camp from Mid Bedfordshire. This Clifton, Henlow and Langford ward was won by the Conservatives easily in May but there was still a significant Labour minority vote. And Labour were also competitive in Shefford, also added from Mid Bedfordshire.
This constituency will also take Meppershall from that source, now included in a ward (Meppershall & Shillington) which will be divided between constituencies. This ward was very safely Conservative May.
The Conservative will always come out on top in the Bedfordshire section but there will be a substantial Labour minority in the towns of Stotfold, Shefford and especially Arlesey.
Together with the rural section of North Herts this should, in all normal circumstances, be enough to outvote any Labour lead in Hitchin itself. This is the sort of seat where Labour could get close in a landslide election though – they would certainly have been close in 1997 and on current polling a landslide may be on the cards (while the Conservatives are now inherently much weaker in Hitchin town than they were then).
This will be a fascinating seat to watch at the next election, as its namesake so often was 50 and more years ago.
The area coming in – the wards of Stotfold & Langford, Arlesley and Shefford – are thickly populated semi-rural wards with several small towns and enlarged villages, but Hitchin itself will be the only town of any size in this constituency now.
Previous incarnations of the Hitchin constituency included other towns, some larger and more influential than Hitchin itself. For much of the post-war period this involved the new town of Stevenage which far outgrew the eponymous town and put the seat in the Labour column for the last decade of its life in this form (1964-74). Stevenage was removed in 1974 and this tipped the seat to the Conservatives, though plenty of Labour votes remained, in Hitchin itself and especially in Letchworth but also in the smaller towns of Baldock and Royston.
Hitchin was renamed North Hertfordshire in 1983 but the form of the seat remained recognisably the same.
Then in 1997 Hitchin was separated from the other towns and the East of the North Herts district and its orientation shifted southwards, to be linked with the Northern wards of St Albans around the town of Harpenden. Labour has derisory support in this area with the Lib Dems being the main opposition to the Conservatives, and this put them out of contention in the new seat. Combined with a growing strength in parts of Hitchin itself, this put the Lib Dems into a strong second place in this strongly Remain seat in the 2019 Brexit election.
Now all the St Albans wards are removed and their replacement with the Bedfordshire wards changes the dynamic yet again.
The 40,000 plus voters in Hitchin and its surroundings represent the majority of this new seat and of the old Hitchin & Harpenden so this is the main successor seat (though a majority of voters in the new Harpenden & Berkhamsted also come from Hitchin & Harpenden).
Over 25,000 voters are in the town of Hitchin itself which has been trending away from the Conservatives for the last couple of decades. Oughton in the North West is dominated by the Westmill council estate and has always been a safe Labour ward, even withstanding the heavy losses during the late Blair-Brown governments. Bearton to the North of the town centre is every bit as safe for Labour these days and Walsworth to the East is heading that way having been marginal previously. These last two ward make up the Hitchin North County division which has become one of the safest Labour divisions in Hertfordshire. There is quite a lot of ethnic diversity here and a left-leaning middle class element with a good deal of commuting to Cambridge and London.
South Hitchin has always tended to be the better part of the town for the Conservatives but Highbury ward (which also includes the town centre) had been a Lib Dem leaning marginal for many years and now appears to be safe for them. There is only one Conservative councillor in Hitchin currently, in the Priory ward covering the very affluent South West corner of the town.
The Lib Dems gained the Hitchin South county division in 2021 for the first time and held it emphatically in a by-election in in March 2022 when they must also have carried Priory easily. They duly gained that ward a couple of months later. North Hertfordshire council will re-elect all its councillors on new ward boundaries in 2024 and it seems likely that the Conservatives will be wiped out in the town then.
There is now clearly a very large left of centre majority on the town of Hitchin – the Green party are also capable of attracting decent numbers of votes in the town.
It’s quite possible that in the 2019 general election the Lib Dems carried the town through a combination of their great strength in the South of the town and tactical voting by Labour supporters in the North. Absent that tactical voting (and indeed should it operate in reverse), Labour can expect to outpoll the Conservatives heavily in the town of Hitchin at the next election.
The Conservatives will rely on the rural areas to carry the seat, but they do not have it all their own way here. Cadwell, which covers the village of Ickleford, directly North of Hitchin has been won by the Lib Dems at the last couple of elections and Chesfield has been a longstanding marginal between Conservatives and Lib Dems where the latter party now hold both seats. Chesfield includes the rural parishes of Graveley and Wymondley but is dominated by the new parish of Great Ashby – a very modern housing estate which to all intents and purposes (but not administratively) is part of Stevenage.
The Conservative position is much stronger in the other wards - Hitchwood, Offa and Hoo is a vast division covering a large number of villages like Great Offley, Pirton, the Waldens, St Ippolyts and Lilley. Kimpton in the far south of this constituency is extremely affluent. Both these wards are safely Conservative and overall, the rural section of North Herts within this seat would usually be enough to counterbalance Hitchin.
The Bedfordshire section should be enough to seal the deal, but is not without some Labour support.
This area has been subject to frequent ward boundary changes. The previous constituencies of Mid and North East Bedfordshire were created using wards from the now long abolished Mid Bedfordshire district council. The wards used to create this constituency (Arlesey, Shefford and Stotfold & Langford) have themselves now been replaced by a new arrangement of wards which elected councillors in May 2023.
So this seat will now contain four whole wards of Central Bedfordshire and part of a fifth.
Stotfold and Arlesey & Fairfield come entirely from North East Beds. Both these wards elected Labour councillors in May 2023 although in both cases Independents topped the poll. Arlesey in particular – a former brickmaking town – has quite a strong Labour tradition. The Arlesey & Langford division was consistently Labour held on Bedfordshire county council up until the abolition of that body.
Also from North East Bedfordshire come Langford and Henlow, now combined in a new ward with Clifton, Lower Stondon and Henlow Camp from Mid Bedfordshire. This Clifton, Henlow and Langford ward was won by the Conservatives easily in May but there was still a significant Labour minority vote. And Labour were also competitive in Shefford, also added from Mid Bedfordshire.
This constituency will also take Meppershall from that source, now included in a ward (Meppershall & Shillington) which will be divided between constituencies. This ward was very safely Conservative May.
The Conservative will always come out on top in the Bedfordshire section but there will be a substantial Labour minority in the towns of Stotfold, Shefford and especially Arlesey.
Together with the rural section of North Herts this should, in all normal circumstances, be enough to outvote any Labour lead in Hitchin itself. This is the sort of seat where Labour could get close in a landslide election though – they would certainly have been close in 1997 and on current polling a landslide may be on the cards (while the Conservatives are now inherently much weaker in Hitchin town than they were then).
This will be a fascinating seat to watch at the next election, as its namesake so often was 50 and more years ago.
