Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 13, 2023 9:43:30 GMT
The Stevenage constituency was created in 1983 though the town had cast a heavy influence on previous constituencies, being responsible for Hitchin being Labour held from 1964-1974 and then being the dominant element of the short-lived Hertford & Stevenage constituency. Together these constituencies provided a parliamentary berth for Shirley Williams for 15 years.
The creation of a dedicated Stevenage constituency might have been expected to provide for a safe Labour seat and the new constituency was notionally Labour in 1979.
Besides Stevenage itself though, the new constituency included the villages of Knebworth and Codicote from North Hertfordshire and a swathe of very Conservative rural wards from East Hertfordshire. The latter section has been whittled down at subsequent reviews so that now only the ward of Datchworth & Aston remains from East Herts and Stevenage itself accounts for nearly 90% of the electorate of the seat. There are no boundary changes affecting this seat on this occasion.
Back in 1983 though, the rural parts of the constituency accounted for about 20% of the electorate and this will have proved crucial in that year, as while Labour suffered a national and local disaster and fell to a poor third place here, this saw one of the best results for the SDP who were within 2,000 votes of winning. Undoubtedly the new party would have carried the town of Stevenage itself while the Conservatives won thanks to a heavy margin in the villages. This also gave rise to one of the favourite ‘what ifs’ of psephologists – what if Shirley Williams had been available to fight Stevenage in 1983? Given how close the SDP came with a vastly lesser known candidate, it seems probable she would have won, but in the event, she went down to defeat in Crosby and the rest is history.
The Conservatives consolidated their position in 1987 and 1992 and in the latter year Labour staged a strong recovery putting them back as clear challengers. Favourable boundary changes and a transformed national situation made Stevenage a nailed-on gain for Labour in 1997 and they duly won the seat with a 5-figure majority. Their support already began to degrade in 2001 and following another large swing back in 2005 Stevenage again became a clear Conservative target which they picked up quite easily in 2010 despite a further reduction in the rural element. Labour’s vote share dropped by over 20% between 1997 and 2010 (from 55.4% to 33.4%) as the volatility of this electorate continued to display itself. Aside from a surge in 2017 which brought them back over 40%, Labour’s share has settled around the mid-30s and the Conservatives pulled well ahead in 2019 when they must have clearly ahead in Stevenage itself.
Stevenage was the first of the post-war New Towns, designated in 1946, and in contrast to Hemel Hempstead the old town was insignificant so nearly all the development here is post-war and with the majority of housing being council (or corporation) built. Right to buy has massively increased owner-occupation levels in the last few decades, but this still has a much higher than average proportion of social renting. There is an increasing London commuter element, but still more people work in local industries such as pharmaceuticals.
Despite Labour’s often mediocre performance in general elections, Stevenage has remained remarkably loyal to the party at the local level and is one of very few non-Metropolitan councils to remain under continuous Labour control since the reorganisation of 1973. Indeed, they have never even come close to losing it.
On the current ward boundaries, the Conservatives have consistently won Woodfield in the North of the town, consisting largely of newer private estates around the Lister Hospital and the Lib Dems have consistently won Manor – likewise mostly consisting of newer private estates (and which surely votes Conservative in general elections).
Labour have usually won all the other wards and have some real strongholds, especially in some of the older New Town neighbourhoods such as Bedwell and Shephall but also Pin Green and St Nicholas in the North and Symonds Green in the West. In good years, the Conservatives can compete in Old Town which is what it says on the tin but also includes some New Town housing, while Longmeadow has been drifting their way in recent years and they now hold all the seats there. Bandley Hill may be trending in a similar direction while Chells has seen Lib Dem victories in recent years. Still Labour’s majority on the local council is large and secure (though they currently only hold one of the six county council divisions in the town.
Of course, the Conservative hold on the rural areas is solid, notwithstanding another Lib Dem win out of the blue in Knebworth in 2018. That ward together with Codicote and (especially) Datchworth & Aston are rock-solid for the Conservatives in general elections, but they are not enough now to carry the seat without the party at least being very competitive in Stevenage itself – in 2017 for example, the Conservatives and Labour were probably running about neck and neck in the town.
All in all, this constituency in its fairly brief history can be considered a bellwether having now returned MPs from the winning party nationally in all 10 elections. Since 1997 the result has tended to amplify the lead of the winning party – Labour won by a larger percentage than they did nationally in 1997, 2001 and 2005 while the Conservatives have done in all elections since. This does suggest some long-term trend to the Conservatives which has no doubt occurred, in common with all New Towns. But it also illustrates the great elasticity of the vote here and this seat is well capable of swinging hard back to Labour in the right circumstances. It is still very much a seat they are going to need to win back if they have any hope of winning a majority again.
The creation of a dedicated Stevenage constituency might have been expected to provide for a safe Labour seat and the new constituency was notionally Labour in 1979.
Besides Stevenage itself though, the new constituency included the villages of Knebworth and Codicote from North Hertfordshire and a swathe of very Conservative rural wards from East Hertfordshire. The latter section has been whittled down at subsequent reviews so that now only the ward of Datchworth & Aston remains from East Herts and Stevenage itself accounts for nearly 90% of the electorate of the seat. There are no boundary changes affecting this seat on this occasion.
Back in 1983 though, the rural parts of the constituency accounted for about 20% of the electorate and this will have proved crucial in that year, as while Labour suffered a national and local disaster and fell to a poor third place here, this saw one of the best results for the SDP who were within 2,000 votes of winning. Undoubtedly the new party would have carried the town of Stevenage itself while the Conservatives won thanks to a heavy margin in the villages. This also gave rise to one of the favourite ‘what ifs’ of psephologists – what if Shirley Williams had been available to fight Stevenage in 1983? Given how close the SDP came with a vastly lesser known candidate, it seems probable she would have won, but in the event, she went down to defeat in Crosby and the rest is history.
The Conservatives consolidated their position in 1987 and 1992 and in the latter year Labour staged a strong recovery putting them back as clear challengers. Favourable boundary changes and a transformed national situation made Stevenage a nailed-on gain for Labour in 1997 and they duly won the seat with a 5-figure majority. Their support already began to degrade in 2001 and following another large swing back in 2005 Stevenage again became a clear Conservative target which they picked up quite easily in 2010 despite a further reduction in the rural element. Labour’s vote share dropped by over 20% between 1997 and 2010 (from 55.4% to 33.4%) as the volatility of this electorate continued to display itself. Aside from a surge in 2017 which brought them back over 40%, Labour’s share has settled around the mid-30s and the Conservatives pulled well ahead in 2019 when they must have clearly ahead in Stevenage itself.
Stevenage was the first of the post-war New Towns, designated in 1946, and in contrast to Hemel Hempstead the old town was insignificant so nearly all the development here is post-war and with the majority of housing being council (or corporation) built. Right to buy has massively increased owner-occupation levels in the last few decades, but this still has a much higher than average proportion of social renting. There is an increasing London commuter element, but still more people work in local industries such as pharmaceuticals.
Despite Labour’s often mediocre performance in general elections, Stevenage has remained remarkably loyal to the party at the local level and is one of very few non-Metropolitan councils to remain under continuous Labour control since the reorganisation of 1973. Indeed, they have never even come close to losing it.
On the current ward boundaries, the Conservatives have consistently won Woodfield in the North of the town, consisting largely of newer private estates around the Lister Hospital and the Lib Dems have consistently won Manor – likewise mostly consisting of newer private estates (and which surely votes Conservative in general elections).
Labour have usually won all the other wards and have some real strongholds, especially in some of the older New Town neighbourhoods such as Bedwell and Shephall but also Pin Green and St Nicholas in the North and Symonds Green in the West. In good years, the Conservatives can compete in Old Town which is what it says on the tin but also includes some New Town housing, while Longmeadow has been drifting their way in recent years and they now hold all the seats there. Bandley Hill may be trending in a similar direction while Chells has seen Lib Dem victories in recent years. Still Labour’s majority on the local council is large and secure (though they currently only hold one of the six county council divisions in the town.
Of course, the Conservative hold on the rural areas is solid, notwithstanding another Lib Dem win out of the blue in Knebworth in 2018. That ward together with Codicote and (especially) Datchworth & Aston are rock-solid for the Conservatives in general elections, but they are not enough now to carry the seat without the party at least being very competitive in Stevenage itself – in 2017 for example, the Conservatives and Labour were probably running about neck and neck in the town.
All in all, this constituency in its fairly brief history can be considered a bellwether having now returned MPs from the winning party nationally in all 10 elections. Since 1997 the result has tended to amplify the lead of the winning party – Labour won by a larger percentage than they did nationally in 1997, 2001 and 2005 while the Conservatives have done in all elections since. This does suggest some long-term trend to the Conservatives which has no doubt occurred, in common with all New Towns. But it also illustrates the great elasticity of the vote here and this seat is well capable of swinging hard back to Labour in the right circumstances. It is still very much a seat they are going to need to win back if they have any hope of winning a majority again.
