Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
Jul 9, 2023 19:40:49 GMT
Pete Whitehead, jamie, and 4 more like this
Post by Robert Waller on Jul 9, 2023 19:40:49 GMT
It is not inevitable that the Borders should be among the least strong parts of Scotland for the Scottish National Party. After all, this area was disputed for hundreds of years with England, with feuding barons, reivers and riding clans as well as more official royal squabbles about these 'debatable lands'. Yet Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk is one of only a few seats that the SNP has ever only won once, and the next door constituency to the west, Dumfriessshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale, covers territory they have never won; the only other seats of which this can be said are Edinburgh South and Orkney & Shetland, which is right at the other end and edge of the country. In fact this eastern Borders constituency, and its predecessors, have a strong tradition of political loyalty to unionist political parties. There is also a tendency to produce interesting electoral results.
Before 1983 the southeasternmost Scottish county of all, along the modern boundary with England, Berwickshire was associated with East Lothian in a seat that had a reputation for swinging unexpectedly against the national tide. Berwick & East Lothian was gained by the Conservatives in February 1974 after a series of very close contests, then regained by Labour in October that year and much more surprisingly held in a byelection on the death of John Mackintosh in 1978 and also then in the Thatcher election of 1979. But Berwickshire, which does not of course contain the much disputed town of Berwick on Tweed, which ended up in England after 1482, only has an electorate of about 18,000 and was certainly not a dominant element in the Berwick & East Lothian combination.
Selkirkshire as at present constituted as a Borders ward is even smaller (with 8,000 voters in 2022), so the largest element in this constituency of three historic counties is Roxburgh. Its name first attracted wide attention in a March 1965 byelection, when Roxburgh, Selkirk & Peebles was gained from the Conservatives by a 26 year old Liberal by the name of David Steel. The new ‘Baby of the House’ went on to make a mark in passing the 1967 Abortion Act as a Private Members Bill (though with the permission of the Labour government), become the leader of his party from 1976 to 1988 including the years of the Alliance, and represent a Borders seat till 1997. After the boundary changes of 1983 split the Roxburgh etc. constituency he opted for the Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale successor seat, which included his Ettrick Bridge home. However the Liberals, then Liberal Democrats, also won Roxburgh and Berwickshire. Archy Kirkwood was in fact elected on five successive occasions, then handed on to Michael Moore when more boundary changes created the Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk division in 2005.
Moore retained his initial majority of over 5,000 in 2010, which looked comfortable enough, but then everything went wrong for the Liberal Democrats here in the Borders. The fate that so often befalls the junior partners in a coalition struck. Their total number of MPs fell from 62 to just 8. Just into England, the seat of the retiring 42 year veteran Alan Beith, Berwick upon Tweed in Northumberland, finally fell after many close scrapes. In Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk Michael Moore finished third, with about half the number of votes of each of his two main rivals.
The SNP could do hardly any wrong in 2015, and Calum Kerr won here. But the Conservative John Lamont was only 328 votes behind. In 2017, when the Nationalist lustre had faded somewhat, Lamont seized Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk with a handsome majority of over 11,000, the highest for the Tories in Scotland. Even in 2019, when the Tories lost about half their Westminster seats back to the SNP, Lamont held on here by a comfortable margin of over 5,000. By then the Lib Dems were down to a share of 8.1%, and it is clear that it is the Conservatives who carry the torch for those who don’t want the border to become any more real than it is at present.
The demographic characteristics of Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk as a whole may surprise some. This is the no.1 seat of the 650 in the UK for employment in agriculture, fisheries and forestry – although that only accounts for 9% of the workforce. However it also has a higher than average proportion of residents living in social rented housing, and its occupational structure is much more working class than might be expected. Despite that rural element, which includes tourism as well as agriculture, most of the population live in a series of small to medium-sized towns. The largest are Hawick and Galashiels though each has no more than around 13,000 souls. Smaller towns include Kelso on the confluence of the Tweed and the Teviot, Melrose and Jedburgh – all with the ruins of fine abbeys. Selkirk may have been the county town of its eponymous shire, but its population is only 6,000. To the north is Lauder. In Berwickshire are the small burghs of Duns, Coldstream right on the border, and Eyemouth on the coast.
The main industry in the larger towns has traditionally been textiles: woollens and cashmere, tweeds and knitwear. These are communities of rugby and fishing. But there are also poverty and unemployment and social housing estates, for example the Langlee estate in Galashiels and Stirches in Hawick. In the Galashiels & District ward of the Scottish Borders council, nearly 30% of housing was in the social rented sector in the last published Scottish census, while in Hawick & Denholm it was over a third of the whole stock. Across both Hawick wards, a third of the population aged 16+ held no academic qualifications. Well over half of those aged 16-64 in both Galashiels and Hawick were in the C2DE social grades. Nor are these kind of indicators confined to the larger towns. Routine and semi-routine workers outnumber professional and managerial in most of the other wards, such as Selkirkshire, Mid Berwickshire, and especially East Berwickshire. Do not be fooled by the scenery. This is not, overall, a wealthy part of the world.
Because of the strength of independent candidates it is not easy to identify the relative appeal of the contending parties in the different parts of Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk. For example the Independent Stuart Marshall took a massive 69.2% of the first preferences in the Hawick & Denholm ward and the SNP didn’t put up any candidates. Independents also finished top of the poll in the other Hawick ward, in Selkirkshire, and in Leaderdale & Melrose. However where there was more of a party contest in May 2022, the Conservatives generally fared best. They took an impressive 50.3% of first preferences in Jedburgh & District, 47% in Kelso & District, 46% in Mid Berwickshire, 41% in East Berwickshire. The SNP finished first only in Galashiels & District and Tweeddale East, only a small part of which is in this constituency, around Peel and Clovenfolds. The Liberal Democrats’ only strong showing was in Kelso, where an incumbent councillor was reelected. Personal votes in local elections (rightly) cloud the evidence that can be drawn for wider party standings.
This is less true of Scottish Parliament elections, tough the most recent, in May 2021, took place longer ago and before the recent chaos at the top of the Conservative party. They did hold the most similar seat to this one, Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire, with a 51.5% share to 32.5% for the SNP. The Tories may well still be favourites to hold Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk at the next general election especially as the Nationalists' difficulties led to declining strength in opinion polls and council byelections during 2023. They do seem clearly to have established themselves as the main champions of unionism, as the constitutional issue is still kept very much alive by the Nationalists; and in the Scottish Borders in the 2014 referendum ‘No’ to independence won by almost exactly two to one, 66.6% to 33.4%. There are no boundary changes. The home of Sir Walter Scott, Abbotsford, is in this seat, in the Leaderdale & Melrose ward. Scott was a proud Scot, but also a strong Tory. So, still, are a lot of other Borderers.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 21.2% 83/650
Owner-occupied 60.0% 476/650
Private rented 14.2% 325/650
Social rented 22.8% 149 /650
White 98.7% 29/650
Black 0.3% 478/650
Asian 0.7% 599/650
Managerial & professional 27.6%
Routine & Semi-routine 31.4%
Employed in agriculture, forestry, fishing 9.0% 1/650
Degree level 25.0% 342/650
No qualifications 29.2% 119/650
Students 5.6% 557/650
2022 Census
Details not yet available
2019 General Election: Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative John Lamont 25,747 48.4 -5.5
SNP Calum Kerr 20,599 38.8 +6.0
Liberal Democrats Jenny Marr 4,287 8.1 +3.4
Labour Ian Davidson 2,513 4.7 -3.9
C Majority 5,148 9.7 -11.5
2019 electorate 74,518
Turnout 53,146 71.3 -0.2
Conservative hold
Swing 5.7 C to SNP
Boundary Changes and 2019 Notional Result
N/A, unchanged seat
Map
www.bcomm-scotland.independent.gov.uk/sites/default/files/revised_constituency_maps/berwickshire_roxburgh_selkirk.pdf
Before 1983 the southeasternmost Scottish county of all, along the modern boundary with England, Berwickshire was associated with East Lothian in a seat that had a reputation for swinging unexpectedly against the national tide. Berwick & East Lothian was gained by the Conservatives in February 1974 after a series of very close contests, then regained by Labour in October that year and much more surprisingly held in a byelection on the death of John Mackintosh in 1978 and also then in the Thatcher election of 1979. But Berwickshire, which does not of course contain the much disputed town of Berwick on Tweed, which ended up in England after 1482, only has an electorate of about 18,000 and was certainly not a dominant element in the Berwick & East Lothian combination.
Selkirkshire as at present constituted as a Borders ward is even smaller (with 8,000 voters in 2022), so the largest element in this constituency of three historic counties is Roxburgh. Its name first attracted wide attention in a March 1965 byelection, when Roxburgh, Selkirk & Peebles was gained from the Conservatives by a 26 year old Liberal by the name of David Steel. The new ‘Baby of the House’ went on to make a mark in passing the 1967 Abortion Act as a Private Members Bill (though with the permission of the Labour government), become the leader of his party from 1976 to 1988 including the years of the Alliance, and represent a Borders seat till 1997. After the boundary changes of 1983 split the Roxburgh etc. constituency he opted for the Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale successor seat, which included his Ettrick Bridge home. However the Liberals, then Liberal Democrats, also won Roxburgh and Berwickshire. Archy Kirkwood was in fact elected on five successive occasions, then handed on to Michael Moore when more boundary changes created the Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk division in 2005.
Moore retained his initial majority of over 5,000 in 2010, which looked comfortable enough, but then everything went wrong for the Liberal Democrats here in the Borders. The fate that so often befalls the junior partners in a coalition struck. Their total number of MPs fell from 62 to just 8. Just into England, the seat of the retiring 42 year veteran Alan Beith, Berwick upon Tweed in Northumberland, finally fell after many close scrapes. In Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk Michael Moore finished third, with about half the number of votes of each of his two main rivals.
The SNP could do hardly any wrong in 2015, and Calum Kerr won here. But the Conservative John Lamont was only 328 votes behind. In 2017, when the Nationalist lustre had faded somewhat, Lamont seized Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk with a handsome majority of over 11,000, the highest for the Tories in Scotland. Even in 2019, when the Tories lost about half their Westminster seats back to the SNP, Lamont held on here by a comfortable margin of over 5,000. By then the Lib Dems were down to a share of 8.1%, and it is clear that it is the Conservatives who carry the torch for those who don’t want the border to become any more real than it is at present.
The demographic characteristics of Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk as a whole may surprise some. This is the no.1 seat of the 650 in the UK for employment in agriculture, fisheries and forestry – although that only accounts for 9% of the workforce. However it also has a higher than average proportion of residents living in social rented housing, and its occupational structure is much more working class than might be expected. Despite that rural element, which includes tourism as well as agriculture, most of the population live in a series of small to medium-sized towns. The largest are Hawick and Galashiels though each has no more than around 13,000 souls. Smaller towns include Kelso on the confluence of the Tweed and the Teviot, Melrose and Jedburgh – all with the ruins of fine abbeys. Selkirk may have been the county town of its eponymous shire, but its population is only 6,000. To the north is Lauder. In Berwickshire are the small burghs of Duns, Coldstream right on the border, and Eyemouth on the coast.
The main industry in the larger towns has traditionally been textiles: woollens and cashmere, tweeds and knitwear. These are communities of rugby and fishing. But there are also poverty and unemployment and social housing estates, for example the Langlee estate in Galashiels and Stirches in Hawick. In the Galashiels & District ward of the Scottish Borders council, nearly 30% of housing was in the social rented sector in the last published Scottish census, while in Hawick & Denholm it was over a third of the whole stock. Across both Hawick wards, a third of the population aged 16+ held no academic qualifications. Well over half of those aged 16-64 in both Galashiels and Hawick were in the C2DE social grades. Nor are these kind of indicators confined to the larger towns. Routine and semi-routine workers outnumber professional and managerial in most of the other wards, such as Selkirkshire, Mid Berwickshire, and especially East Berwickshire. Do not be fooled by the scenery. This is not, overall, a wealthy part of the world.
Because of the strength of independent candidates it is not easy to identify the relative appeal of the contending parties in the different parts of Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk. For example the Independent Stuart Marshall took a massive 69.2% of the first preferences in the Hawick & Denholm ward and the SNP didn’t put up any candidates. Independents also finished top of the poll in the other Hawick ward, in Selkirkshire, and in Leaderdale & Melrose. However where there was more of a party contest in May 2022, the Conservatives generally fared best. They took an impressive 50.3% of first preferences in Jedburgh & District, 47% in Kelso & District, 46% in Mid Berwickshire, 41% in East Berwickshire. The SNP finished first only in Galashiels & District and Tweeddale East, only a small part of which is in this constituency, around Peel and Clovenfolds. The Liberal Democrats’ only strong showing was in Kelso, where an incumbent councillor was reelected. Personal votes in local elections (rightly) cloud the evidence that can be drawn for wider party standings.
This is less true of Scottish Parliament elections, tough the most recent, in May 2021, took place longer ago and before the recent chaos at the top of the Conservative party. They did hold the most similar seat to this one, Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire, with a 51.5% share to 32.5% for the SNP. The Tories may well still be favourites to hold Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk at the next general election especially as the Nationalists' difficulties led to declining strength in opinion polls and council byelections during 2023. They do seem clearly to have established themselves as the main champions of unionism, as the constitutional issue is still kept very much alive by the Nationalists; and in the Scottish Borders in the 2014 referendum ‘No’ to independence won by almost exactly two to one, 66.6% to 33.4%. There are no boundary changes. The home of Sir Walter Scott, Abbotsford, is in this seat, in the Leaderdale & Melrose ward. Scott was a proud Scot, but also a strong Tory. So, still, are a lot of other Borderers.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 21.2% 83/650
Owner-occupied 60.0% 476/650
Private rented 14.2% 325/650
Social rented 22.8% 149 /650
White 98.7% 29/650
Black 0.3% 478/650
Asian 0.7% 599/650
Managerial & professional 27.6%
Routine & Semi-routine 31.4%
Employed in agriculture, forestry, fishing 9.0% 1/650
Degree level 25.0% 342/650
No qualifications 29.2% 119/650
Students 5.6% 557/650
2022 Census
Details not yet available
2019 General Election: Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative John Lamont 25,747 48.4 -5.5
SNP Calum Kerr 20,599 38.8 +6.0
Liberal Democrats Jenny Marr 4,287 8.1 +3.4
Labour Ian Davidson 2,513 4.7 -3.9
C Majority 5,148 9.7 -11.5
2019 electorate 74,518
Turnout 53,146 71.3 -0.2
Conservative hold
Swing 5.7 C to SNP
Boundary Changes and 2019 Notional Result
N/A, unchanged seat
Map
www.bcomm-scotland.independent.gov.uk/sites/default/files/revised_constituency_maps/berwickshire_roxburgh_selkirk.pdf
