Post by Robert Waller on Jul 7, 2023 16:05:26 GMT
Scotland is rightly known for the extraordinary number and variety of its islands. Where they are placed in terms of Westminster parliamentary constituencies is also varied. There are two seats that are entirely removed from the mainland, both extensive in area but small in electorate: Orkney and Shetland, which contains both archipelagos (Orkney includes around 70 islands, Shetland at least 100), and Na h-Eileanan an Iar, formerly the Western Isles, which covers the Outer Hebrides. Further south, Skye (along with many others such as the splendidly named Rum, Muck, Eigg and Canna) is paired with a vast spread of mainland terrain in Ross, Skye & Lochaber. Another mixed mainland and island seat is Argyll & Bute also includes the large Inner Hebridean Mull, Islay and Jura as well as the one which achieves recognition in its title. Continuing southwards, we reach North Ayrshire and Arran. Arran is relatively large, at 167 square miles, and this forms around half of the area of this constituency; on a map of the seat, it looks like a substantial influence. But it has a population of less than 5,000, and as it also harbours a large number of second home owners, the island influence on the electoral politics of North Ayrshire & Arran is less than that of any of the above mentioned constituencies. This seat also includes the smaller Firth of Clyde islands of Great and Little Cumbrae, but they have little more than 1,300 permanent residents between them.
Therefore, despite superficial appearances, the outcome of elections is decided in North Ayrshire rather than Arran. The parliamentary seat has historically been competitive over a number of decades. Prior to 1983 its predecessor North Ayrshire and Bute had been safely Conservative (or Unionist) ever since 1918. Then in major boundary changes a Cunninghame North constituency was created, which was retained by John Corrie for the Tories in 1983 but subsequently gained and retained by Labour’s Brian Wilson from 1987 right up to 2005, when the present seat was first contested. Since then, a widespread Scottish pattern has been asserted. Labour won easily in 2005 and 2010, the SNP seized it in their landslide of 2015, then the Conservatives moved forwards, in this case into second place, with Labour slumping in 2019 to a fairly dismal 14% (they had 47.4% here only nine years previously). No further boundary changes have been recommended in the current review for any of the four Ayrshire seats.
Therefore at present it looks as if the main challenge to the SNP here is likely to come from the Conservative party. This may appear logical enough, as the Tories are strong in the islands and part of the coast. In the most recent North Ayrshire council elections in May 2022 under the STV system, for example, the Conservatives achieved a lead in first preference within the Arran ward (which elects only one councillor because of its small electorate and is therefore in effect using the AV system), with 32.4% to the SNP’s 25.7% and a mere 9.9% for Labour. These figures do not add up to 100% because of Independent candidatures. The Tories also finished a strong second to the SNP (both a fraction over 30%) in the North Coast ward, which includes affluent communities: the small town of Largs and villages of Fairlie and Skelmorlie, as well as the Cumbraes.
However in fact the North Ayrshire and Arran parliamentary results in 2017 and 2019 represent a massive under-performance for the Scottish Labour party. This is because this constituency is the only one, of all those mentioned on the first paragraph above, where major islands are actually coupled with a predominantly working class mainland population. The two remaining sections of this seat yet to be described are numerically dominant and historically strongly Labour. The first section consists of four towns located close together: Ardrossan and Saltcoats on the coast and Stevenston and Kilwinning just inland. The first three more or less form a single conurbation, and with each having a population of close to 10,000 have a substantial political impact. Kilwinning is a few miles further inland but is the largest of the towns, with around 15,000 residents. All have an industrial heritage. Stevenston focused on mining and ironworks, and then explosives, with a major Nobel plant, producing dynamite, gelignite and cordite. Saltcoats was an active port specialising in the salt that gave it its name, but also with active shipyards. Ardrossan grew through its role as a ferry and transport hub; Kilwinning was the original home of Pringle knitwear. All were strongly Labour through most of the 20th century, but have clearly switched their allegiance in general elections to the SNP from 2015 onwards.
Finally, beyond Kilwinning the Garnock Valley stretches eastwards inland. It includes the small towns of Dalry, Beith and Kilbirnie. These are also known for their industrial base: textiles and furniture manufacture in Beith, coal, ironworks and brickworks in Dalry, flax then steel in Kilbirnie. The population of the Garnock Valley is around 20,000. Yet here too Labour have slipped to third place, polling just 14% of first preferences in May 2022 to 25% for the Conservatives and 31% for the SNP. There was some solace for Labour in the North Ayrshire elections. They finished second in Ardrossan with 27%, though a long way behind the Nationalists (41%); but they were first in two wards, Saltcoats & Stevenston, with just over a 40% share, and in Kilwinning, where they achieved their best result in the whole of Ayrshire in 2022: 46% compared with 35% for the SNP and under16% for the Tories.
Overall, though, the best Labour look likely to do is to narrow the gap to the Conservatives in second place in parliamentary contests. In Scottish Parliament elections, older boundaries are used. In 2021 Labour did finish second in the Cunninghame South division, which includes Kilwinning and Stevenston, but the bulk of Ayrshire North & Arran is in Cunninghame North, where the figures in May 2021 were SNP 49%, Conservative 28%, Labour 21%, and Liberal Democrat 2.6%. Not much has changed since, so far.
Despite the presence of the islands and the North Coast, the demographics reveal that overall North Ayrshire and Arran is a predominantly working class constituency. As with many Scottish seats, there is still a high percentage of social rented housing, placing it just within the top 100 seats in the United Kingdom on this measure, in estates like Hayocks in Stevenston and Springvale in Saltcoats. It is in a similar position in the list regarding this with no educational qualifications. More workers are in routine and semi-routine occupations than professional or managerial. It is also the 6th ‘whitest’ constituency in the UK, and has a relatively ageing population.
This did not have such an impact in the 2016 referendum results as it would in England, with over 57% voting ‘Remain’, although this was well below the 62% across Scotland as a whole. In the 2014 independence referendum, though, the North Ayrshire district as a whole voted 48.9% for ‘yes’. This registered as well above the average, given that only four districts had a majority for breaking away – Dundee, West Dunbartonshire, Glasgow and North Lanarkshire. After Inverclyde (which was almost exactly 50-50) this means that North Ayrshire was the 6th strongest for independence in Scotland.
Given that Arran alone is sometimes described as a microcosm of Scotland and that the landward parts of this constituency range from affluent to deprived, seashore to rural, uplands to lowlands, and given that it has within living memory had Conservative, Labour and SNP MPs, it is also a potential political bellwether.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 19.8% 143/650
Owner-occupied 64.1% 406/650
Private rented 9.3% 601/650
Social rented 25.6% 98/650
White 99.0% 6/650
Black 0.1% 629/650
Asian 0.5% 625/650
Managerial & professional 25.7%
Routine & Semi-routine 30.3%
Employed in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 1.9% 8/650
Degree level 21.4% 460/650
No qualifications 30.1% 92/650
Students 7.0% 288/650
General election 2019: North Ayrshire and Arran
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP Patricia Gibson 23,376 48.5 +9.6
Conservative David Rocks 14,855 30.8 -0.4
Labour Cameron Gilmore 6,702 13.9 -13.6
Liberal Democrats Louise Young 2,107 4.4 +2.0
Green David Nairn 1,114 2.3 New
SNP Majority 8,521 17.7 +10.0
2019 electorate 73,534
Turnout 48,154 65.5 +0.7
SNP hold
Swings
5.0 C to SNP
11.6 Lab to SNP
Boundary Changes and 2019 Notional Results
N/A unchanged seat
Map
www.bcomm-scotland.independent.gov.uk/sites/default/files/north_ayrshire_and_arran_0.pdf
Therefore, despite superficial appearances, the outcome of elections is decided in North Ayrshire rather than Arran. The parliamentary seat has historically been competitive over a number of decades. Prior to 1983 its predecessor North Ayrshire and Bute had been safely Conservative (or Unionist) ever since 1918. Then in major boundary changes a Cunninghame North constituency was created, which was retained by John Corrie for the Tories in 1983 but subsequently gained and retained by Labour’s Brian Wilson from 1987 right up to 2005, when the present seat was first contested. Since then, a widespread Scottish pattern has been asserted. Labour won easily in 2005 and 2010, the SNP seized it in their landslide of 2015, then the Conservatives moved forwards, in this case into second place, with Labour slumping in 2019 to a fairly dismal 14% (they had 47.4% here only nine years previously). No further boundary changes have been recommended in the current review for any of the four Ayrshire seats.
Therefore at present it looks as if the main challenge to the SNP here is likely to come from the Conservative party. This may appear logical enough, as the Tories are strong in the islands and part of the coast. In the most recent North Ayrshire council elections in May 2022 under the STV system, for example, the Conservatives achieved a lead in first preference within the Arran ward (which elects only one councillor because of its small electorate and is therefore in effect using the AV system), with 32.4% to the SNP’s 25.7% and a mere 9.9% for Labour. These figures do not add up to 100% because of Independent candidatures. The Tories also finished a strong second to the SNP (both a fraction over 30%) in the North Coast ward, which includes affluent communities: the small town of Largs and villages of Fairlie and Skelmorlie, as well as the Cumbraes.
However in fact the North Ayrshire and Arran parliamentary results in 2017 and 2019 represent a massive under-performance for the Scottish Labour party. This is because this constituency is the only one, of all those mentioned on the first paragraph above, where major islands are actually coupled with a predominantly working class mainland population. The two remaining sections of this seat yet to be described are numerically dominant and historically strongly Labour. The first section consists of four towns located close together: Ardrossan and Saltcoats on the coast and Stevenston and Kilwinning just inland. The first three more or less form a single conurbation, and with each having a population of close to 10,000 have a substantial political impact. Kilwinning is a few miles further inland but is the largest of the towns, with around 15,000 residents. All have an industrial heritage. Stevenston focused on mining and ironworks, and then explosives, with a major Nobel plant, producing dynamite, gelignite and cordite. Saltcoats was an active port specialising in the salt that gave it its name, but also with active shipyards. Ardrossan grew through its role as a ferry and transport hub; Kilwinning was the original home of Pringle knitwear. All were strongly Labour through most of the 20th century, but have clearly switched their allegiance in general elections to the SNP from 2015 onwards.
Finally, beyond Kilwinning the Garnock Valley stretches eastwards inland. It includes the small towns of Dalry, Beith and Kilbirnie. These are also known for their industrial base: textiles and furniture manufacture in Beith, coal, ironworks and brickworks in Dalry, flax then steel in Kilbirnie. The population of the Garnock Valley is around 20,000. Yet here too Labour have slipped to third place, polling just 14% of first preferences in May 2022 to 25% for the Conservatives and 31% for the SNP. There was some solace for Labour in the North Ayrshire elections. They finished second in Ardrossan with 27%, though a long way behind the Nationalists (41%); but they were first in two wards, Saltcoats & Stevenston, with just over a 40% share, and in Kilwinning, where they achieved their best result in the whole of Ayrshire in 2022: 46% compared with 35% for the SNP and under16% for the Tories.
Overall, though, the best Labour look likely to do is to narrow the gap to the Conservatives in second place in parliamentary contests. In Scottish Parliament elections, older boundaries are used. In 2021 Labour did finish second in the Cunninghame South division, which includes Kilwinning and Stevenston, but the bulk of Ayrshire North & Arran is in Cunninghame North, where the figures in May 2021 were SNP 49%, Conservative 28%, Labour 21%, and Liberal Democrat 2.6%. Not much has changed since, so far.
Despite the presence of the islands and the North Coast, the demographics reveal that overall North Ayrshire and Arran is a predominantly working class constituency. As with many Scottish seats, there is still a high percentage of social rented housing, placing it just within the top 100 seats in the United Kingdom on this measure, in estates like Hayocks in Stevenston and Springvale in Saltcoats. It is in a similar position in the list regarding this with no educational qualifications. More workers are in routine and semi-routine occupations than professional or managerial. It is also the 6th ‘whitest’ constituency in the UK, and has a relatively ageing population.
This did not have such an impact in the 2016 referendum results as it would in England, with over 57% voting ‘Remain’, although this was well below the 62% across Scotland as a whole. In the 2014 independence referendum, though, the North Ayrshire district as a whole voted 48.9% for ‘yes’. This registered as well above the average, given that only four districts had a majority for breaking away – Dundee, West Dunbartonshire, Glasgow and North Lanarkshire. After Inverclyde (which was almost exactly 50-50) this means that North Ayrshire was the 6th strongest for independence in Scotland.
Given that Arran alone is sometimes described as a microcosm of Scotland and that the landward parts of this constituency range from affluent to deprived, seashore to rural, uplands to lowlands, and given that it has within living memory had Conservative, Labour and SNP MPs, it is also a potential political bellwether.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 19.8% 143/650
Owner-occupied 64.1% 406/650
Private rented 9.3% 601/650
Social rented 25.6% 98/650
White 99.0% 6/650
Black 0.1% 629/650
Asian 0.5% 625/650
Managerial & professional 25.7%
Routine & Semi-routine 30.3%
Employed in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 1.9% 8/650
Degree level 21.4% 460/650
No qualifications 30.1% 92/650
Students 7.0% 288/650
General election 2019: North Ayrshire and Arran
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP Patricia Gibson 23,376 48.5 +9.6
Conservative David Rocks 14,855 30.8 -0.4
Labour Cameron Gilmore 6,702 13.9 -13.6
Liberal Democrats Louise Young 2,107 4.4 +2.0
Green David Nairn 1,114 2.3 New
SNP Majority 8,521 17.7 +10.0
2019 electorate 73,534
Turnout 48,154 65.5 +0.7
SNP hold
Swings
5.0 C to SNP
11.6 Lab to SNP
Boundary Changes and 2019 Notional Results
N/A unchanged seat
Map
www.bcomm-scotland.independent.gov.uk/sites/default/files/north_ayrshire_and_arran_0.pdf
