Gateshead Central and Whickham

[jamie]

A newly named constituency, this is the clear successor to the old Gateshead constituency. It sheds its 2 eastern wards while gaining the 3 Whickham wards from Blaydon constituency. Gateshead was first won by Labour in 1922 and has always been won by the party under various boundaries since 1945. At the last election Labour suffered an 11% swing but this still left them with a 19% majority, indicating how much of a safe seat it is. The new boundaries will make it more marginal, probably around a 10% majority.

The bulk of the electorate lives in the town of Gateshead, of which about 2/3 are in this constituency. A very industrial town to the immediate south of Newcastle, Labour are dominant in most of the wards within this constituency. They are strongest in areas like the town centre, Beacon Lough and Teams. These areas are strongly working class and have significant social housing estates. The only part the Conservatives will have come close to winning is Low Fell, the most middle class part of Gateshead. The Conservatives also used to be competitive in neighbouring Chowdene and Saltwell until the 1980s, but I doubt they were close even in 2019. There is also a fairly large ultra Orthodox Jewish population in the Bensham area, but it hasn’t had much of an electoral impact like it has in other metropolitan areas. 

The Whickham area is somewhat more politically competitive. Whickham has some coal mining history, but is largely a dormitory village for the Tyneside area. The older Swalwell area, which includes the MetroCentre, is the most Labour part of the town. The eastern part and the nearby village of Sunniside will usually be Labour leaning but will have been marginal in 2019. The southern part of the village is solidly middle class and has a large elderly population, and is therefore much more Conservative inclined. I imagine they will have won there in 2017 and definitely 2019. The Conservatives used to be competitive if not dominant here in local elections but their vote went into terminal decline in the 1980s. They were supplanted by the Lib Dems who may have carried a ward or 2 in the 2000s (though obviously not in the last 3 general elections). Overall, the Conservatives may well have carried the village in 2019, not that it was much use in actually electing anyone.

Looking ahead, this is a safe Labour seat at the next general election and I struggle to see it ever voting Conservative even if ‘trends’ continue. 

[batman]

might be worth mentioning the (to an outsider) surprising ultra-Orthodox Jewish enclave in Gateshead, one of very few in the country.

[bjornhattan]

The lack of electoral impact is certainly interesting - while the community is smaller than in (for example) the solidly Tory Stamford Hill wards, the non Jewish population is perhaps a little better for the Conservatives than it is there. I suppose some of the issue is the core Jewish area is split between three wards; mostly in Saltwell but parts are in Lobley Hill and Bensham and parts are in Bridges (the town centre ward).

Regarding Chowdene and Saltwell, these may have been Conservative in the 1980s but they have had very different demographic trajectories since then and will have voted very differently in 2019. Chowdene is similar to Low Fell in many ways with an older, heavily owner occupied population; some deprivation exists in Allerdene and Harlow Green but overall the ward will have been quite Conservative inclined and may have backed them at a general election. Saltwell is very different, being a lot younger with a fairly ethnically diverse population and extraordinarily high rates of private renting (top 5% of wards in the UK). There has been a little gentrification and the area has a much worse reputation than it perhaps deserves (I should know, it's where I grew up), but it will have been fairly solidly Labour.

[batman]

One of the local Labour councillors, a veteran who was many years ago on Hackney Council, is an acquaintance of mine. She is Jewish but in a secular fashion.

[jamie]

Jul 7, 2023 20:37:42 GMT bjornhattan said:

The lack of electoral impact is certainly interesting - while the community is smaller than in (for example) the solidly Tory Stamford Hill wards, the non Jewish population is perhaps a little better for the Conservatives than it is there. I suppose some of the issue is the core Jewish area is split between three wards; mostly in Saltwell but parts are in Lobley Hill and Bensham and parts are in Bridges (the town centre ward).

Regarding Chowdene and Saltwell, these may have been Conservative in the 1980s but they have had very different demographic trajectories since then and will have voted very differently in 2019. Chowdene is similar to Low Fell in many ways with an older, heavily owner occupied population; some deprivation exists in Allerdene and Harlow Green but overall the ward will have been quite Conservative inclined and may have backed them at a general election. Saltwell is very different, being a lot younger with a fairly ethnically diverse population and extraordinarily high rates of private renting (top 5% of wards in the UK). There has been a little gentrification and the area has a much worse reputation than it perhaps deserves (I should know, it's where I grew up), but it will have been fairly solidly Labour.

I checked for the profile and the 2021 census found Saltwell was 17% Jewish, Bridges 9%, and Lobley Hill + Bensham only 3%. A bit surprised at the latter.

The near complete lack of Conservative organisation in Gateshead also won’t help, they would really need to campaign properly in a very good year to get even a non-general election win in Saltwell (and the Lib Dems have now ruled that non-existent possibility out). 

Im not so sure on Chowdene. There was a big swing back from Conservative to Labour in 2021 vs the general election, but even then Chowdene voting over 2-1 Labour does not suggest it voted Conservative in 2019. Chowdene itself perhaps, but not the ward as a whole which as you say includes some more working class areas in the south. 

[Sibboleth]

It's never a good idea to make assumptions about Hasidic voting patterns. All things are possible, depending on circumstances.

[bsjmcr]

I wonder what the least populated 'settlement' to be named in a UK constituency will be now... Surely Whickham must be one of the smaller ones (16,000). I believe Atcham (finally) has been binned, but lo and behold a ton of Little Dribbling names have cropped up to compensate, even where boundaries haven't been changed (hello Chadderton, but at least that is double the size of this one) or just superfluous if they were already in the principal namesake district, as guess what, Whickham is in the district of (checks notes) Gateshead!

[batman]

North Hykeham in recent times has been one of the more fortunate places to have been mentioned in a constituency title. Arundel is also small but at least it's a proper town.

[Robert Waller]

2021 Census

Age 65+ 18.7% 310/575
Owner occupied 55.9% 452/575
Private rented 19.9% 209/575
Social rented 24.2% 72/575
White 91.2% 276/575
Black 1.6% 261/575
Asian 3.5% 322/575
Jewish 2.9% 15/575
Managerial & professional 29.5% 371/575
Routine & Semi-routine 26.9% 173/575
Degree level 29.9% 344/575
No qualifications 21.2% 144/575
Students 7.2% 187/575


General Election 2019: Gateshead

Party Candidate Votes % ±%

Labour Ian Mearns 20,450 53.6 -11.5
Conservative Jane MacBean 13,250 34.7 +10.8
Liberal Democrats Peter Maughan 2,792 7.3 +3.3
Green Rachael Cabral 1,653 4.3 +2.9

Lab Majority 7,200 18.9 -22.3

Turnout 38,145 59.2 -5.4

Labour hold

Swing 11.2 Lab to C



Boundary Changes
Gateshead Central and Whickham consists of
80.0% of Gateshead
29.0% of Blaydon

Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-east/North%20East_191_Gateshead%20Central%20and%20Whickham_Landscape.pdf

2019 Notional results on new boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)

Lab	19787	47.1%
Con	13876	33.0%
LD	5138	12.2%
Brexit	1629	3.9%
Green	1184	3.8%
Majority	5911	14.1%

[Max]

Jul 7, 2023 22:13:25 GMT batman said:

North Hykeham in recent times has been one of the more fortunate places to have been mentioned in a constituency title. Arundel is also small but at least it's a proper town.

Atcham must be right up there?

[John Chanin]

Jul 7, 2023 21:37:07 GMT bsjmcr said:

I wonder what the least populated 'settlement' to be named in a UK constituency will be now... Surely Whickham must be one of the smaller ones (16,000). I believe Atcham (finally) has been binned, but lo and behold a ton of Little Dribbling names have cropped up to compensate, even where boundaries haven't been changed (hello Chadderton, but at least that is double the size of this one) or just superfluous if they were already in the principal namesake district, as guess what, Whickham is in the district of (checks notes) Gateshead!

Woodstock must be a candidate. It has a population of c3000.

[The Bishop]

Feb 8, 2024 12:28:23 GMT Max said:

Jul 7, 2023 22:13:25 GMT batman said:

North Hykeham in recent times has been one of the more fortunate places to have been mentioned in a constituency title. Arundel is also small but at least it's a proper town.

Atcham must be right up there?

Though as has been said before, it is a reference to the pre-1973 rural district of that name rather than the small village within it.