Post by Robert Waller on Jul 7, 2023 13:54:17 GMT
If Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock is the true marginal in Ayrshire, having changed hands three times between three different parties between 2010 and 2019, Kilmarnock & Loudoun looks very like one of the SNP’s safest seats in any region. In the most recent general election Alan Brown achieved an absolute majority with 50.8% of the votes cast, more than twice as many as the nearest challenger, which on this occasion was the Conservative candidate. Labour, who had held the constituency based on Kilmarnock continuously from 1945 (including National Labour, from 1929) did not get close after their surge in 2017 as they did in many SNP seats, and in 2019 finished third - for the first time since the by-election on 26 September 1911. There had been some high profile Labour MPs for Kilmarnock too, such as Willie Ross, the longest serving Scottish Secretary ever, in Harold Wilson’s governments in the 1960s and 1970s.
Labour’s precipitous decline is matched, some would argue, by that of the main town in this seat. If Kilmarnock had a wider reputation, even worldwide perhaps, it was predominantly as the birthplace and site of manufacture of Johnnie Walker whisky, popular as far away as Japan. Despite a vigorous campaign by such as Alex Salmond, production in ‘Killie’ ended in 2012. Other Kilmarnock industries included carpets, until the final closure of the Stoddard company in 2005. Locomotives were repaired as well as made here. Repairs finished in 1952 and the main works closed in 1959. Brand new combine harvesters came out of Kilmarnock, until the Massey Ferguson plant was shut down, perhaps to the chagrin of The Wurzels, in 1978. As well as the decline in manufacturing, the town centre entered a period of decay and Kilmarnock was named as Scotland’s ‘crappest town’ in 2013.
As ever, this picture needs to be more nuanced. It is true that there are still some grim council estates in Kilmarnock – for example Onthank in the north of the town and Shortless in its far south. However there are also very decent residential areas, such as along the A759 Dundonald road heading south west, and around Dean Castle country park, and also plentiful newish build estates such as Southcraig (actually on the town’s northern edge) and Annandale in the south west. There is some regeneration in the town centre too, some of it fairly successful. Brodie Engineering still builds diesel locomotives. Vodafone has a call centre. The football club has recently won the Scottish Championship and thus returned to join the also-rans to Glasgow’s Celtic and Rangers on the premiership. Overall, the town of Kilmarnock is not all doom and gloom.
It is also solidly behind the Scottish National Party. There are four East Ayrshire wards that are essentially dominated by Kilmarnock. In the most recent council elections in May 2022, in Kilmarnock North, the SNP candidates took 47.5% of the first preferences between them, compared with 28% for Labour and 14% for the Conservatives. In South the SNP did even better, with an absolute majority of 53.5%, their best performance in the whole of Ayrshire. Labour managed 31% , the Tories just 12%. Two wards link with urban areas in the orbit of Kilmarnock. West & Crosshouse had the highest Conservative share of the Kilmarnock wards, 22%, but this was still only good enough for third place behind Labour 24% and more distantly the SNP at 38%. However Labour did manage to finish first in Kilmarnock East & Hurlford, narrowly, with 38.5% against the SNP’s 37%; once gain the Tories trailed with 12%.
Even including Crosshouse and Hurlford, the Kilmarnock wards account for not much more than half of this constituency, as the name implies. Here’s the lowdown on Loudoun.
Essentially Loudoun is the territory of the upper valley of the River Irvine (which in its lower reaches passes through the eponymous New Town and right through the middle of the Central Ayrshire constituency). There is a Loudoun hill, castle and parish; take your pick which the seat is named after. This is the only division in Ayrshire that lies entirely inland. The main communities in Loudoun are the towns of Darvel, Newmilns and Galston, none of them larger than 5,000 inhabitants. These lie due east of Kilmarnock and Hurlston, along the A71 towards Strathaven then Stonehouse in Lanarkshire; the railways line covering a similar route was axed by Beeching in 1964. These towns were best known for textile manufacture, especially lace, but only Newmilns still has working mills. All three communities are included in the Irvine Valley ward of East Ayrshire; but two other wards are also included in the Westminster constituency. Ballochmyle is a largely rural ward to the south of Irvine Valley, including Mauchline and Auchinleck, the former having connections with Burns, and the latter with James Boswell. There used to be coal mining in Auchinleck – Barony (1979) was one of the last six pits to close in Scotland. Finally, north east of Kilmarnock is the Annick ward, which includes the town of Stewarton, Kilmaurs which is now in effect a suburb of Kilmarnock, and the village of Moscow – named not because of any connection with Communism but dating from Napoleon’s retreat in 1812. As with Kilmarnock itself, the overall demographics including both parts of the constituency add up to a picture of being overwhelmingly white, not highly educated, predominantly in working class and lower supervisory and technical occupations, and with a well above average proportion of social housing.
The SNP led comfortably in all the three ‘Loudoun’ wards in May 2022, but the Conservatives took second place in Annick. Across all the wards within this constituency the SNP were still well ahead, though they did not reach 50% as they had in 2019, and Labour had the second most votes, relegating the Tories to third place. This matches the party order in the result in the Scottish Parliament seat of Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley, which has different boundaries: in 2021, SNP 53%, Labour 24%, Conservative 20%, plus Liberal Democrats 2%, and Libertarian 1%. It seems likely that that is likely to be the order in the next general election circa 2024 too. This seat is completely unchanged in the recent boundary review, like all the other Ayrshire constituencies.
Two fine writers, who applied their skills in different fields, grew up in Kilmarnock. They were brothers. Hugh McIlvanney became one of the most respected sports journalists in the United Kingdom, particularly football, with 56 years’ service between the Observer and the Sunday Times. His brother William, sometimes described as the founder of 'Scottish noir' crime writing may be best known for his archetypal detective Laidlaw – who definitely operated in Glasgow. But Wiliam McIlvanney’s other work included Docherty and a powerful collection of short stories set in ‘Graithnock’ – which is clearly a thinly disguised version of his home town Kilmarnock. The title is Walking Wounded – which, though meant to refer to several sectors of local society, right now accurately describes the current state of the formerly dominant party in Scotland. One feels, though, that even if the next Westminster election does indeed more widely reflect the SNP's difficulties in 2023, Kilmarnock & Loudoun is one of the most likely seats of all to remain loyal to Nationalism.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 17.1% 291/650
Owner-occupied 62.7% 437/650
Private rented 8.7% 617/650
Social rented 27.6% 76/650
Shared ownership (part owned and rented) 0.1% 650/650
White 98.7% 26/650
Black 0.1% 600/650
Asian 0.8% 563/650
Managerial & professional 25.0%
Routine & Semi-routine 31.9%
Lower supervisory and technical 9.2% 54/650
Degree level 19.2% 542/650
No qualifications 32.7% 48/650
Students 7.0% 302/650
General election 2019: Kilmarnock and Loudoun
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP Alan Brown 24,216 50.8 +8.5
Conservative Caroline Hollins-Martin 11,557 24.3 -2.4
Labour Kevin McGregor 9,009 18.9 -10.0
Liberal Democrats Edward Thornley 2,444 5.1 +3.0
Libertarian Stef Johnstone 405 0.9 New
SNP Majority 12,659 26.5 +13.1
2019 electorate 74,517
Turnout 47,631 63.9 +0.5
SNP hold Swing +9.2
Boundary Changes and 2019 Notional Results
N/A unchanged seat
Map
www.bcomm-scotland.independent.gov.uk/sites/default/files/north_ayrshire_and_arran_0.pdf
Labour’s precipitous decline is matched, some would argue, by that of the main town in this seat. If Kilmarnock had a wider reputation, even worldwide perhaps, it was predominantly as the birthplace and site of manufacture of Johnnie Walker whisky, popular as far away as Japan. Despite a vigorous campaign by such as Alex Salmond, production in ‘Killie’ ended in 2012. Other Kilmarnock industries included carpets, until the final closure of the Stoddard company in 2005. Locomotives were repaired as well as made here. Repairs finished in 1952 and the main works closed in 1959. Brand new combine harvesters came out of Kilmarnock, until the Massey Ferguson plant was shut down, perhaps to the chagrin of The Wurzels, in 1978. As well as the decline in manufacturing, the town centre entered a period of decay and Kilmarnock was named as Scotland’s ‘crappest town’ in 2013.
As ever, this picture needs to be more nuanced. It is true that there are still some grim council estates in Kilmarnock – for example Onthank in the north of the town and Shortless in its far south. However there are also very decent residential areas, such as along the A759 Dundonald road heading south west, and around Dean Castle country park, and also plentiful newish build estates such as Southcraig (actually on the town’s northern edge) and Annandale in the south west. There is some regeneration in the town centre too, some of it fairly successful. Brodie Engineering still builds diesel locomotives. Vodafone has a call centre. The football club has recently won the Scottish Championship and thus returned to join the also-rans to Glasgow’s Celtic and Rangers on the premiership. Overall, the town of Kilmarnock is not all doom and gloom.
It is also solidly behind the Scottish National Party. There are four East Ayrshire wards that are essentially dominated by Kilmarnock. In the most recent council elections in May 2022, in Kilmarnock North, the SNP candidates took 47.5% of the first preferences between them, compared with 28% for Labour and 14% for the Conservatives. In South the SNP did even better, with an absolute majority of 53.5%, their best performance in the whole of Ayrshire. Labour managed 31% , the Tories just 12%. Two wards link with urban areas in the orbit of Kilmarnock. West & Crosshouse had the highest Conservative share of the Kilmarnock wards, 22%, but this was still only good enough for third place behind Labour 24% and more distantly the SNP at 38%. However Labour did manage to finish first in Kilmarnock East & Hurlford, narrowly, with 38.5% against the SNP’s 37%; once gain the Tories trailed with 12%.
Even including Crosshouse and Hurlford, the Kilmarnock wards account for not much more than half of this constituency, as the name implies. Here’s the lowdown on Loudoun.
Essentially Loudoun is the territory of the upper valley of the River Irvine (which in its lower reaches passes through the eponymous New Town and right through the middle of the Central Ayrshire constituency). There is a Loudoun hill, castle and parish; take your pick which the seat is named after. This is the only division in Ayrshire that lies entirely inland. The main communities in Loudoun are the towns of Darvel, Newmilns and Galston, none of them larger than 5,000 inhabitants. These lie due east of Kilmarnock and Hurlston, along the A71 towards Strathaven then Stonehouse in Lanarkshire; the railways line covering a similar route was axed by Beeching in 1964. These towns were best known for textile manufacture, especially lace, but only Newmilns still has working mills. All three communities are included in the Irvine Valley ward of East Ayrshire; but two other wards are also included in the Westminster constituency. Ballochmyle is a largely rural ward to the south of Irvine Valley, including Mauchline and Auchinleck, the former having connections with Burns, and the latter with James Boswell. There used to be coal mining in Auchinleck – Barony (1979) was one of the last six pits to close in Scotland. Finally, north east of Kilmarnock is the Annick ward, which includes the town of Stewarton, Kilmaurs which is now in effect a suburb of Kilmarnock, and the village of Moscow – named not because of any connection with Communism but dating from Napoleon’s retreat in 1812. As with Kilmarnock itself, the overall demographics including both parts of the constituency add up to a picture of being overwhelmingly white, not highly educated, predominantly in working class and lower supervisory and technical occupations, and with a well above average proportion of social housing.
The SNP led comfortably in all the three ‘Loudoun’ wards in May 2022, but the Conservatives took second place in Annick. Across all the wards within this constituency the SNP were still well ahead, though they did not reach 50% as they had in 2019, and Labour had the second most votes, relegating the Tories to third place. This matches the party order in the result in the Scottish Parliament seat of Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley, which has different boundaries: in 2021, SNP 53%, Labour 24%, Conservative 20%, plus Liberal Democrats 2%, and Libertarian 1%. It seems likely that that is likely to be the order in the next general election circa 2024 too. This seat is completely unchanged in the recent boundary review, like all the other Ayrshire constituencies.
Two fine writers, who applied their skills in different fields, grew up in Kilmarnock. They were brothers. Hugh McIlvanney became one of the most respected sports journalists in the United Kingdom, particularly football, with 56 years’ service between the Observer and the Sunday Times. His brother William, sometimes described as the founder of 'Scottish noir' crime writing may be best known for his archetypal detective Laidlaw – who definitely operated in Glasgow. But Wiliam McIlvanney’s other work included Docherty and a powerful collection of short stories set in ‘Graithnock’ – which is clearly a thinly disguised version of his home town Kilmarnock. The title is Walking Wounded – which, though meant to refer to several sectors of local society, right now accurately describes the current state of the formerly dominant party in Scotland. One feels, though, that even if the next Westminster election does indeed more widely reflect the SNP's difficulties in 2023, Kilmarnock & Loudoun is one of the most likely seats of all to remain loyal to Nationalism.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 17.1% 291/650
Owner-occupied 62.7% 437/650
Private rented 8.7% 617/650
Social rented 27.6% 76/650
Shared ownership (part owned and rented) 0.1% 650/650
White 98.7% 26/650
Black 0.1% 600/650
Asian 0.8% 563/650
Managerial & professional 25.0%
Routine & Semi-routine 31.9%
Lower supervisory and technical 9.2% 54/650
Degree level 19.2% 542/650
No qualifications 32.7% 48/650
Students 7.0% 302/650
General election 2019: Kilmarnock and Loudoun
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP Alan Brown 24,216 50.8 +8.5
Conservative Caroline Hollins-Martin 11,557 24.3 -2.4
Labour Kevin McGregor 9,009 18.9 -10.0
Liberal Democrats Edward Thornley 2,444 5.1 +3.0
Libertarian Stef Johnstone 405 0.9 New
SNP Majority 12,659 26.5 +13.1
2019 electorate 74,517
Turnout 47,631 63.9 +0.5
SNP hold Swing +9.2
Boundary Changes and 2019 Notional Results
N/A unchanged seat
Map
www.bcomm-scotland.independent.gov.uk/sites/default/files/north_ayrshire_and_arran_0.pdf
