Central Ayrshire

[Robert Waller]

This is the most compact of the four Ayrshire constituencies (which are all recommended to remain unaltered in the initial, revised and final report stages of the Scottish Boundary Commission’s latest review), but also probably the most socially varied and electorally volatile. There was a gap in the history of Central Ayrshire as a parliamentary seat between 1983 and 2005, when this territory was largely included in Cunninghame South, but since its re-establishment it has seen some enormous swings. In 2005 and 2010 Labour won with very comfortable majorities of over 10,000, but in 2015 there was a swing of no less than 27.7% to the SNP’s Philippa Whiteford, who beat the incumbent Brian Donohoe by nearly 14,000. Then in 2017 she nearly lost – but not to Labour. The Conservatives increased their share by a mighty 17% and cut the SNP lead to a mere 1,267. Then in 2019 Whiteford recovered to win by over 5,000, with the Tories still second; but Labour’s share collapsed from 26% to 14% over the two year period. In nine years their numerical vote had plummeted from 21,000 to 6,500.

The vast majority of the population of the Central Ayrshire division lives on or near the coast, but the communities included are strikingly different. The largest is Irvine, which is a rather odd bird. Irvine was dignified as a Royal Burgh as long ago as 1372, but also as a New Town in 1966, the fifth and last to be established in Scotland and the only one near the coast. However unlike Cumbernauld, East Kilbride, Livingston and Glenrothes it has not grown to its original target and indeed was the subject of a winding up order in 1993 which ended its New Town designation in 1996. In 30 years, Irvine's population grew by only 21,000 people, a quarter of the number contained in the original proposal.
www.heraldscotland.com/news/12479944.irvine-the-town-where-a-vision-failed-to-happen/
Its population is now around 33,000, which is the highest in the North Ayrshire district but substantially less than that of Kilmarnock or Ayr, as well as of the other four New Towns in Scotland. Irvine’s population is largely working class with a high proportion having few educational qualifications and a larger than average proportion of social housing. The other two main towns in Central Ayrshire, although both also near the coast of the Firth of Clyde, contrast with Irvine in many ways.

Troon may be best known for golf (it is a prominent Open venue and the home town of Colin Montgomerie, perhaps the best known golfer never to win a Major), and Prestwick for its airport. Both were placed in the Ayr constituency rather than Cunninghame South during Central Ayrshire’s fallow period of 1983-2005, and both are examples of the SNP versus Conservative battle rather than Labour/SNP like Irvine. The population demographics are skewed towards senior citizens in these two towns, but to young families in Irvine. Troon and Prestwick are largely composed of owner occupied housing, with the exception of pockets like Marr Drive/Logan Drive and Muirhead in the inland parts of Troon and the Sanquhar Drive neighbourhood in eastern Prestwick.

There is one other area included in the Central Ayrshire seat – the only one entirely inland. This is the largely rural Kyle ward, which stretches most of the way towards Kilmarnock and Mauchline, and includes no communities larger than villages such as Dundonald, Symington, Mossblown, Annbank and Tarbolton. This is also a part of the seat where the Conservatives do well. In the most recent elections in the various Ayrshire local authorities, in May 2022, Kyle, which is in South Ayrshire district, saw the Tories top the poll on first preferences with 36.7% compared with 33.9% for the SNP and 23.0% for Labour. The only other ward where the Conservatives led was Troon, where they did best of all within this constituency, attaining the heights of 37.7%. This was still only just ahead of the SNP (36%) because Troon is one of Labour’s weakest areas, with only 19% on this occasion. They actually did even worse in Prestwick ward – 15.3% - but the SNP led comfortably with nearly 35% to the Tory figure of 25%.

The pattern is different in the three Irvine wards (which are the only ones in the seat in the North Ayrshire authority). In each of these the results in May 2022 were very similar. The SNP are very strong, Labour were clearly second and the Conservatives a fairly distant third. The SNP share varied between 40.6% (Irvine West) and 44.5% (both East and South). Labour’s highest was 32.4% in South and lowest 27.2% in East. The Tories lagged with between 19% and 20% in all three. STV three and four member wards are quite large, with the May 2022 electorates in Irvine ranging from 8,997 (South) to 12,000 exactly (East), so it is difficult to establish differences within them. However going back to the pre-2007 local elections, using the series of compendia by John and Hugh Bochel and David Denver (available through this site www.electionscentre.co.uk/?page_id=3424 )
it is clear that within Irvine, Labour’s historically best areas were the former Vineburgh and North wards, and the only area of significant Tory presence was Townhead. Within Troon, the Conservatives were very strong in South ward, which isn’t surprising as that is the direction in which the golf course is located, while Labour could take West ward. In Prestwick the best Conservative former ward were St Ninian’s followed by Kingcase, and Labour’s strongest Toll ward and St Nicholas. The Conservatives were ahead in the villages within the present Kyle, with the exception of Mossblown and Annbank, which has a mining heritage. However the massive growth in SNP strength has rendered these pre-STV patterns only mildly informative.

Irvine is clearly the SNP stronghold in Central Ayrshire now, and this is reinforced by its pro-independence majority in the 2014 referendum by 13,654 Yes to 13,208 No votes. Troon by stark contrast voted No by 65% to 35%. Troon has a yacht marina; Irvine’s harbour fell into long term decline and disrepair, though there has been some redevelopment to breathe life into it including a minuscule Harbour Arts Centre. Irvine’s politics are likely to remain more dominant within Central Ayrshire than Troon’s. In the 2021 Scottish Parliament elections different constituencies were in force but the SNP gained Ayr (which includes Prestwick and Troon) from the Conservatives - its first ever Holyrood victory here - and in Cunninghame South, including Irvine and the bulk of the Central Ayrshire electorate, the SNP won by a country mile with an absolute majority of 50.5%. Labour had 24% and the Tories 22%.

Given the current UK-wide economic problems, the Westminster Conservative government’s continued refusal to countenance another independence referendum, and the general atmosphere of weariness after more than a decade of successive and frequently replaced Tory Prime Ministers, there is a fair chance that there will be similarly divided opposition in Central Ayrshire in a putative 2024 general election. There seems little reason for Irvine to change its mind about the Union at present. Not for nothing perhaps, was the former SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon born in Ayrshire Central Hospital, in Irvine. Her family lived in Dreghorn, where she attended primary and secondary school. Dreghorn is located in Irvine South ward, jointly the SNP strongest within this SNP seat. Furthermore, the SNP strength in this constituency (despite its history of large swings) may last even beyond Ms Sturgeon’s lengthy tenure as leader of her part.


2011 Census

Age 65+ 19.1 % 175/650
Owner-occupied 66.3% 351/650
Private rented 9.1% 609/650
Social rented 23.6% 134/650
White 98.7% 27/650
Black 0.1% 612/650
Asian 0.9% 547/650
Managerial & professional 27.3%
Routine & Semi-routine 30.2%
Degree level 21.5% 455/650
No qualifications 29.6 % 107/650
Students 7.1% 280/650


General election 2019: Central Ayrshire

Party Candidate Votes % ±%

SNP Philippa Whitford 21,486 46.2 +9.0
Conservative Derek Stillie 16,182 34.8 +0.4
Labour Louise McPhater 6,583 14.1 -12.0
Liberal Democrats Emma Farthing 2,283 4.9 +2.6

SNP Majority 5,304 11.4 +8.6

2019 electorate 69,742

Turnout 46,534 66.7 +1.4

SNP hold

Swing 4.3 C to SNP


Boundary Changes and 2019 Notional Results
N/A unchanged seat

Map
www.bcomm-scotland.independent.gov.uk/sites/default/files/central_ayrshire_3.pdf

[Deleted]

A small correction. The SNP didn’t regain the Ayr seat at the Holyrood level in 2021 - it voted Labour in 1999 and went Conservative in the 2000 by-election and the 2003, 2007, 2011 and 2016 Scottish parliament elections.

Central Ayrshire was one of a handful of seats where the Tories gained votes in 2019, along with the then constituencies of Banff & Buchan, Gordon, Western Isles, Orkney & Shetland, Dumfries & Galloway and Argyll & Bute.

The Tories appear maxed out here and in the Ayr Holyrood seat for now so they’d need Labour to recover to have any chance of taking this.

[ntyuk1707]

Central Ayrshire is made up of two very contrasting parts.

The South Ayrshire section of the constituency is very much a Conservative-SNP battleground in every sense of the word, very much divided between the more numerous affluent neighbourhoods of Prestwick and Troon, and better-off villages of Loans, Symington and Craigie, in contrast to more working class areas including Troon's Muirhead and Harbour areas and Prestwick's Toll, Marchburn and Glenburn areas. In the former mining villages of Tarbolton, Mossblown and Annbank to the south-east of the constituency, the Conservatives, SNP and Labour all won a roughly equal share of votes in 2022. Dundonald and Monkton are more socially mixed villages, leaning more towards the SNP with the Conservatives in second in 2022.

Prestwick and Troon are popular seaside destinations in Scotland adjoining nearby Ayr, while Kyle ward includes commuter villages into Ayr, Prestwick, Troon and Kilmarnock and their surrounding rural communities.

The South Ayrshire part of the constituency broke roughly 60-40 against Scottish independence and 61-39 to remain within the EU in 2016.

In contrast, Irvine in North Ayrshire is a broadly working-class new town and strong area for the SNP. It voted 51-49 in favour of Scottish independence with an estimated 55-45 remain vote in the 2016 Brexit referendum.

These two communities have notably distinct political traditions, with Irvine having voted Labour and subsequently SNP since it was constructed in the 1960s and Prestwick, Troon and Kyle in South Ayrshire having belonged to the formerly Conservative seat of Ayr and contributing to the Conservatives holding the seat for most of its marginal history up until Labour's victory in 1997. This seat was represented by Conservative John Scott MSP in the Scottish Parliament from 2000 until his election defeat in 2021, which he lost by just 170 votes.

Unfortunately for the Conservatives, cutting it close to the SNP in Prestwick, Troon and Kyle is not enough to carry the seat as a whole, as Irvine is more inclined towards the SNP and Labour, with the Conservatives in a rather distant third place like many other towns in the Central Belt of Scotland.

Labour's sporadic following in South Ayrshire equally makes this seat a challenge for them, and a division of opposition parties puts Central Ayrshire as one of the SNP's safest seats in Scotland, and would perhaps rank as one of their top 10 safest seats in the country under the present polling circumstances where Labour appear to be more resurgent and the Conservatives are floating around 20% of the vote, in spite of this seat having voted approximately 54% against independence in 2014, a win here for Labour would likely require them to surge into first place across Scotland, and for the Conservatives it would require them to regain significant levels of support up to their peak from 2017 or even beyond that point.

The cross-cutting of these two communities ultimately benefits the SNP, as following the North Ayrshire-South Ayrshire boundary would have resulted in the creation of a winnable seat for Labour based around Irvine, Kilwinning and the Three Towns, and winnable seat for the Conservatives around Kyle, Prestwick, Troon and Ayr.