Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2023 22:13:17 GMT
Forest of Dean
The Forest of Dean lies in Wales western Gloucestersire, with the Severn as its eastern boundary and bordering on Tewkesbury and Gloucester to the north east. This is easily the most conservative part of Gloucestershire, and the district’s leave vote was enough to tip Gloucestershire from a remain to a leave county. The constituency is, as of the 2011 census, 98.5% white, has the second highest proportion in the county claiming unemployment related benefits, and the highest proportion of people with no qualifications. A story told to me by a union rep that he visited a factory in the area and received a barrage of complaints about the management employing “foreigners” from Wales – which was far closer than may other parts of the Forest, never mind the rest of the county – perhaps indicates something of the mindset that is still prevalent in parts of the area. This area is also the designated butt of many jokes from the rest of county, but like an older sibling we will fiercely defend them from any outsiders who make the same jokes. Even “outsiders” who have lived in the county since the age of 5.
The north of the constituency is outside the historically forested area and is a rather rich and incredibly rural area, anchored around the town of Newent, a medieval market town of just over 5,000 people. Hartpury College, formerly a well-renowned agricultural college and now mainly a sports university with a very high profile and a championship rugby club, is in this area of the seat. Moving southwards, we reach the formerly industrial belt across the middle of the constituency. During the industrial revolution, coal mining and iron working were massive in this area, although both industries are much older. there is some evidence that iron ore from the area supplied ironworkers in the Roman era and the coal mining goes back to at least the middle ages. Edward I is believed to have granted freemining rights to Foresters although his comment that the uniquely local tradition goes back to “tyme out of mynde” suggests that the custom is a lot older. Only people born in the hundred of St Briavel’s, which is basically the forested area of the forest, have ever been eligible to become freeminers. Sadly, the closure of the maternity unit at Cinderford means expecting mothers must now got to Gloucester or farther in order to give birth, which will drastically reduce the number of babies born in the area and probably kill off this ancient tradition for good. The industry still survives, albeit in a much-reduced way and with ever increasing reliance on diversification into other areas, such as tourism and ochre mining: as of 2017, there were a number of active freeminers and three apprentices. Freeminers have even been taken into battle, and amongst other achievements were instrumental in recapturing Berwick-Upon-Tweed on several occasions. The largest town in this area, and indeed the constituency, is Cinderford with slightly under 9,000 people, closely followed by nearby Coleford with just over 8,000. Moving to the south, we once again enter an area with a more overtly rural character although still far more urbanised than the north. The largest town here is Lydney, a town of slightly over 8,00 people on the west bank of the Severn. There was a sizeable manufacturing industry here at one time and the Severn bridge once connected the town across the river to the docks at Sharpness. Another point of local interest is the “Lydney Murder” in 1964, which is a significant case in the development of forensic entomology: maggots on the body were able to confirm a rough date of death and therefore the victim’s identity.
This constituency has existed from 1885 to 1950 and then again since 1997. It has seen an astonishing swing to the right over its existence: it took until 2005 to elect the seat’s first Tory MP, and even the Gloucestershire West seat which replaced it took until 1979 to elect a Conservative, (although a National Labour MP held it from 1931-5) and in 2019 Mark Harper held the seat for the Conservatives with a 30.7% majority over Labour and 59.3% of the vote. The industrial heritage of the seat made it safe for the Liberals from its creation until 1918 when it became safe for Labour until its abolition, with the exception of 1931-5. After its resurrection in 1997, Labour’s Diana Organ won the seat 48-36 over Tory Paul Marland and held it until Mark Harper gained the seat in 2005. UKIP were strong in this seat in their best years, especially in Lydney and some of the rural areas to the south. This vote is typical of the Labour-UKIP-Tory tendency amongst older, left-wing conservative voters in many areas and perhaps goes some way to explaining the stunning change in Tory fortunes: much of the seat does have an air of “the place that time and Westminster forgot" about it.
The northern area of the seat is fairly traditional Tory in a similar way to other rural areas of Western England. The rural and semi-rural areas across the central and south, and the town of Lydney, which once provided the majorities for Labour and the Liberals, are now also overwhelmingly Tory. Cindeford is still a Labour stronghold and there is still some strength on Coleford although no longer any Labour councillors. Ruspidge, on the edge of Cinderford and nearby Mitcheldean provide the only Labour district councillors outside Cinderford: these areas score high on various deprivation measures compared to others in the seat. The Greens have started to advance at local level in recent years, and are now in fact the largest party on the district council, performing especially well in the historically stronger Labour areas. This actually transferred to GE level and the Greens achieved 9.5% of the vote in 2019, beating their score in neighbouring Stroud which has long been one of their strongest areas in the South West. Some people in the western part actually attend school and uses services in Wales, including a small population who actually attend Welsh-language schools: it might be interesting to see how Plaid Cymru were to perform if they ever stood a candidate.
Although the Tories somehow contrived to lose control of the local council in 2019, they remain almost unbeatable nationally. Throughout the 2010s, this seat was in that slightly uncomfortable bracket for Labour where the Tories were too far ahead to be realistically beaten, but not far enough to justify writing it off to focus on better prospects. The decline of industry and demographic change mean this has now changed, and this seat was starting to look safe Conservative one for the foreseeable future. However, things have changed, and with changes in national polling, Labour may yet again be in contention here. However, I think it is difficult to see Labour winning this without a big win nationally.
The Forest of Dean lies in Wales western Gloucestersire, with the Severn as its eastern boundary and bordering on Tewkesbury and Gloucester to the north east. This is easily the most conservative part of Gloucestershire, and the district’s leave vote was enough to tip Gloucestershire from a remain to a leave county. The constituency is, as of the 2011 census, 98.5% white, has the second highest proportion in the county claiming unemployment related benefits, and the highest proportion of people with no qualifications. A story told to me by a union rep that he visited a factory in the area and received a barrage of complaints about the management employing “foreigners” from Wales – which was far closer than may other parts of the Forest, never mind the rest of the county – perhaps indicates something of the mindset that is still prevalent in parts of the area. This area is also the designated butt of many jokes from the rest of county, but like an older sibling we will fiercely defend them from any outsiders who make the same jokes. Even “outsiders” who have lived in the county since the age of 5.
The north of the constituency is outside the historically forested area and is a rather rich and incredibly rural area, anchored around the town of Newent, a medieval market town of just over 5,000 people. Hartpury College, formerly a well-renowned agricultural college and now mainly a sports university with a very high profile and a championship rugby club, is in this area of the seat. Moving southwards, we reach the formerly industrial belt across the middle of the constituency. During the industrial revolution, coal mining and iron working were massive in this area, although both industries are much older. there is some evidence that iron ore from the area supplied ironworkers in the Roman era and the coal mining goes back to at least the middle ages. Edward I is believed to have granted freemining rights to Foresters although his comment that the uniquely local tradition goes back to “tyme out of mynde” suggests that the custom is a lot older. Only people born in the hundred of St Briavel’s, which is basically the forested area of the forest, have ever been eligible to become freeminers. Sadly, the closure of the maternity unit at Cinderford means expecting mothers must now got to Gloucester or farther in order to give birth, which will drastically reduce the number of babies born in the area and probably kill off this ancient tradition for good. The industry still survives, albeit in a much-reduced way and with ever increasing reliance on diversification into other areas, such as tourism and ochre mining: as of 2017, there were a number of active freeminers and three apprentices. Freeminers have even been taken into battle, and amongst other achievements were instrumental in recapturing Berwick-Upon-Tweed on several occasions. The largest town in this area, and indeed the constituency, is Cinderford with slightly under 9,000 people, closely followed by nearby Coleford with just over 8,000. Moving to the south, we once again enter an area with a more overtly rural character although still far more urbanised than the north. The largest town here is Lydney, a town of slightly over 8,00 people on the west bank of the Severn. There was a sizeable manufacturing industry here at one time and the Severn bridge once connected the town across the river to the docks at Sharpness. Another point of local interest is the “Lydney Murder” in 1964, which is a significant case in the development of forensic entomology: maggots on the body were able to confirm a rough date of death and therefore the victim’s identity.
This constituency has existed from 1885 to 1950 and then again since 1997. It has seen an astonishing swing to the right over its existence: it took until 2005 to elect the seat’s first Tory MP, and even the Gloucestershire West seat which replaced it took until 1979 to elect a Conservative, (although a National Labour MP held it from 1931-5) and in 2019 Mark Harper held the seat for the Conservatives with a 30.7% majority over Labour and 59.3% of the vote. The industrial heritage of the seat made it safe for the Liberals from its creation until 1918 when it became safe for Labour until its abolition, with the exception of 1931-5. After its resurrection in 1997, Labour’s Diana Organ won the seat 48-36 over Tory Paul Marland and held it until Mark Harper gained the seat in 2005. UKIP were strong in this seat in their best years, especially in Lydney and some of the rural areas to the south. This vote is typical of the Labour-UKIP-Tory tendency amongst older, left-wing conservative voters in many areas and perhaps goes some way to explaining the stunning change in Tory fortunes: much of the seat does have an air of “the place that time and Westminster forgot" about it.
The northern area of the seat is fairly traditional Tory in a similar way to other rural areas of Western England. The rural and semi-rural areas across the central and south, and the town of Lydney, which once provided the majorities for Labour and the Liberals, are now also overwhelmingly Tory. Cindeford is still a Labour stronghold and there is still some strength on Coleford although no longer any Labour councillors. Ruspidge, on the edge of Cinderford and nearby Mitcheldean provide the only Labour district councillors outside Cinderford: these areas score high on various deprivation measures compared to others in the seat. The Greens have started to advance at local level in recent years, and are now in fact the largest party on the district council, performing especially well in the historically stronger Labour areas. This actually transferred to GE level and the Greens achieved 9.5% of the vote in 2019, beating their score in neighbouring Stroud which has long been one of their strongest areas in the South West. Some people in the western part actually attend school and uses services in Wales, including a small population who actually attend Welsh-language schools: it might be interesting to see how Plaid Cymru were to perform if they ever stood a candidate.
Although the Tories somehow contrived to lose control of the local council in 2019, they remain almost unbeatable nationally. Throughout the 2010s, this seat was in that slightly uncomfortable bracket for Labour where the Tories were too far ahead to be realistically beaten, but not far enough to justify writing it off to focus on better prospects. The decline of industry and demographic change mean this has now changed, and this seat was starting to look safe Conservative one for the foreseeable future. However, things have changed, and with changes in national polling, Labour may yet again be in contention here. However, I think it is difficult to see Labour winning this without a big win nationally.
