Post by bsjmcr on Jul 5, 2023 20:54:13 GMT
Anyone living in the North West or indeed anyone who knows of Worsley would automatically think that this seat is a Tory bastion, for the eponymous town, along with Boothstown and Ellenbrook, are the pinnacle of affluence in the City of Salford. This is very much true for those wards in themselves, locally they have almost always been represented by Conservatives. They were of the select handful of Salford wards that voted Remain, along with Eccles itself (the others are wards in the Salford Quays area in the neighbouring constituency). The Bridgewater Canal flows through Worsley, the water being a famous orange colour due to iron in the rocks, and many old Tudor style mansions such as Worsley Old Hall can be seen around the village centre, a conservation area. Ironically, Worsley New Hall does not exist any more, but its 156-acre site and gardens have undergone a major restoration project in the form of RHS Garden Bridgewater, to become a major attraction bringing in visitors from near and far, which aims to be Salford’s answer to Tatton or Harlow Carr (in Harrogate). In its first year of opening it attracted 500,000 visitors. Salford City residents can visit for free on Tuesdays, and a new shuttle bus transports visitors from Manchester's railway stations to the attraction.
Housing in Worsley and Boothstown/Ellenbrook is mostly leafy and detached, mock Tudor being the order of the day - some fit for footballers as David Beckham and Ryan Giggs once lived in Worsley, and the latter owns a local restaurant. The area was probably formerly home to the factory and landowners during the Industrial Revolution when the area boomed, not only from cotton but also coal which was mined locally.
Based on the seat’s principal namesake then, one would be surprised to see that the constituency is a Labour stronghold. This is because much of it is made up of swathes of more down to earth Salford suburbs, and in the latest changes, the addition of one ward (Astley Mosley Common) from the Wigan borough. The changes are quite wholesale in that an entire town, Walkden, and the contiguous Little Hulton estate, have been removed and added to Bolton South East (becoming Bolton South and Walkden, putting Walkden on the national map for the first time), while to compensate, Eccles is now united (the unwieldy 'Worsley and Eccles South' name consigned to history for now). However as a consequence, the town of Swinton is split, as the 'Swinton and Wardley' ward joins this constituency.
Despite these changes, there will likely be very little partisan impact overall. Though the Astley ward of Wigan may bring in a swathe of Conservative votes, being part of the 'red wall', heavily leave-voting Leigh constituency - a famous 2019 Tory gain, being Andy Burnham's former seat, Eccles and Swinton will keep things in order for Labour here. So although Walkden will be missed, having been in a 'Worsley' constituency since 1983, the Labour Party won't lose any sleep over it.
Eccles itself, famous for a cake above all else, seems to be a fairly 'neutral' town in Greater Manchester, invoking neither impressions of extreme deprivation or affluence (unlike say Worsley). It appears to be trending middle class, particularly the Monton area, which has even gained the nickname 'Monton Carlo'. Rebecca Long-Bailey lives there, meaning as a result of these changes, she will no longer live in her own constituency (in highly likely event she is re-selected for the new Salford). The southern half of Eccles, though, the Barton and Winton area, although sitting along the Ship Canal, are far less salubrious, and the same goes for Westwood Park, which is somewhat incongrously tagged on to Worsley in the council ward. There are considerable pockets of social housing in these areas. And despite the success of Monton, the Eccles town centre itself is the land that time forgot, and in a dire need for a lick of paint - probably neglected due to proximity to more attractive shopping destinations such as the nearby Trafford Centre and other parts of Salford. Swinton, and in particular the Swinton and Wardley area that joins this constituency, is also a fairly working-class, if skilled working-class, area. Wardley has a large industrial estate and the part of Swinton that will be part of this seat includes Salford Civic Centre, the town hall and HQ of the council.
Once you leave the aforementioned settlements and head westwards down major roads including the A580, M62 and A57, you will go past swathes of farmland and greenbelt land. Salford City Council’s website boasts that the city as whole has a lot of green space, which at 60%, is a fact which may have helped lead it to recently be listed the Greenest city in the country. Who would have thought? The majority of that green space is in this constituency, between the A580 and M62. This is mostly made up of Chat Moss, ancient fertile peat bog land which in itself forms 30% of the area of the entire city. Peat extraction once occurred here, but it is now protected wetlands and farming is now minimal. A former constituent named Worsley Man, dating from the Iron Age, was found preserved in the peat bogs and can now be seen at the Manchester Museum. Cadishead and Little Woolden Moss is one of the pioneering examples of peatland restoration in the North West, achieved through Lottery funding and run by the Lancashire Wildlife Trust. The boundary changes now bring in even more prime peatland in the form of Astley and Bedford Moss, thereby uniting some of the region's most important peat bogs into this constituency.
Keep heading down the A57 and you will arrive at the most isolated settlements of Salford you could think of, Irlam and Cadishead, awkwardly hanging off the south-western edge of the city along the ship canal and bordering Warrington to the west. Although Irlam has a railway station, the two settlements, now pretty much contiguous with each other, still feel somewhat disconnected from Salford and indeed Manchester by all that green space and the Ship Canal to the south. Irlam has an industrial park and the towns are otherwise residential and mostly made up of skilled working class residents, with little extreme deprivation or affluence save for the odd farm house. Both voted leave and are generally Labour, but in their bad years Cadishead has elected Conservatives in the past, and Irlam has elected Independents, including last year - perhaps indicating dissent with the powers that be all the way over at Swinton Civic Centre.
What about the new addition, the quaintly-named Astley Mosley Common, you ask? It may seem unthinkable to slough off a ward from proudly independent-minded Wigan borough / Leigh constituency into a 'Salford' seat, but it is not precedented and was the case from 1983-2010 in the old 'Worsley'. As well as containing more peatland, some people do live there, and it is fairly well-connected to Worsley down the A580 (or down the Bridgwater canal if you prefer). Though nothing like Worsley, it probably leans more skilled working class, being a former mining area (the Lancashire Mining Museum is located here, near the canal), and is one of the (relatively) less deprived areas of the current Leigh constituency, with average housing for nuclear families. It is quite possible the ward, likely strongly leave-voting, would have gone Conservative in 2019.
The constituency as a whole therefore is likely to be near if not slightly below average in terms of earnings, occupations and qualifications. The preceding 'Worsley and Eccles South' was created in 2010 from the old 'Worsley' (which had Worsley, Boothstown and Walkden as well as Astley), and half of ‘Eccles’ - a long snake stretching from Cadishead all the way to the border with Prestwich. Both were safely Labour, and Barbara Keeley held on for the new seat in 2010 with a majority of over 4,000 - she was first elected in 2005 for the old Worsley with a majority of 9,000. Originally from Leeds, her local links stem from her University of Salford education and election as Councillor in nearby Trafford. She built up the majority to just under 6,000 in 2015, but a hefty UKIP vote (well over 7,000 votes) meant it was at risk in 2017; of course Tory hopes at that election were almost universally dashed, and she achieved 57% of the vote and an 8,000 majority. The 2019 exit poll had this down as a Tory gain, and why not, seeing as neighbouring Leigh (Lab majority almost 10,000) switched, in the event, Ms Keeley held on by a comfortable (by Labour standards on that night) 3,219 votes. 3,224 votes went to the Brexit Party, and interestingly for a leave area the Conservative vote decreased slightly for Arnie Saunders, a Councillor from Kersal on the other side of the city, who was standing for the first time - the Tory candidate for the previous three elections was Iain Lindley of Walkden South, who resigned earlier that year from the party. The Lib Dems held their deposit (most likely made up of disaffected Tory remain voters from Worsley).
Although this seat is now a marginal, and now includes a fertile ward (not only agriculturally) for the modern Conservative party from their prized possession of Leigh, it would have to take yet another pro-Tory swing like 2019 to occur in 2024 to take this one over the line, which surely can’t happen after 14 years of Government. The Labour vote has proved to be too stubborn as with neighbouring Salford and Eccles which is also leave-leaning yet also saw a decreased Conservative vote in 2019. Disaffected voters will simply stay at home or split off into other parties in this area.
Keeley retired soon after the 2024 election was called, and now sits in the Lords as Baroness Keeley of Worsley. Michael Wheeler, a former Eccles councillor, easily held the new seat with a majority of over 11,000. Reform came second, while the Tories were mercilessly trounced into third with under 7,000 votes - remarkable for an area that contains ‘Worsley’, and where they had always come second in any incarnation of the seat.
Housing in Worsley and Boothstown/Ellenbrook is mostly leafy and detached, mock Tudor being the order of the day - some fit for footballers as David Beckham and Ryan Giggs once lived in Worsley, and the latter owns a local restaurant. The area was probably formerly home to the factory and landowners during the Industrial Revolution when the area boomed, not only from cotton but also coal which was mined locally.
Based on the seat’s principal namesake then, one would be surprised to see that the constituency is a Labour stronghold. This is because much of it is made up of swathes of more down to earth Salford suburbs, and in the latest changes, the addition of one ward (Astley Mosley Common) from the Wigan borough. The changes are quite wholesale in that an entire town, Walkden, and the contiguous Little Hulton estate, have been removed and added to Bolton South East (becoming Bolton South and Walkden, putting Walkden on the national map for the first time), while to compensate, Eccles is now united (the unwieldy 'Worsley and Eccles South' name consigned to history for now). However as a consequence, the town of Swinton is split, as the 'Swinton and Wardley' ward joins this constituency.
Despite these changes, there will likely be very little partisan impact overall. Though the Astley ward of Wigan may bring in a swathe of Conservative votes, being part of the 'red wall', heavily leave-voting Leigh constituency - a famous 2019 Tory gain, being Andy Burnham's former seat, Eccles and Swinton will keep things in order for Labour here. So although Walkden will be missed, having been in a 'Worsley' constituency since 1983, the Labour Party won't lose any sleep over it.
Eccles itself, famous for a cake above all else, seems to be a fairly 'neutral' town in Greater Manchester, invoking neither impressions of extreme deprivation or affluence (unlike say Worsley). It appears to be trending middle class, particularly the Monton area, which has even gained the nickname 'Monton Carlo'. Rebecca Long-Bailey lives there, meaning as a result of these changes, she will no longer live in her own constituency (in highly likely event she is re-selected for the new Salford). The southern half of Eccles, though, the Barton and Winton area, although sitting along the Ship Canal, are far less salubrious, and the same goes for Westwood Park, which is somewhat incongrously tagged on to Worsley in the council ward. There are considerable pockets of social housing in these areas. And despite the success of Monton, the Eccles town centre itself is the land that time forgot, and in a dire need for a lick of paint - probably neglected due to proximity to more attractive shopping destinations such as the nearby Trafford Centre and other parts of Salford. Swinton, and in particular the Swinton and Wardley area that joins this constituency, is also a fairly working-class, if skilled working-class, area. Wardley has a large industrial estate and the part of Swinton that will be part of this seat includes Salford Civic Centre, the town hall and HQ of the council.
Once you leave the aforementioned settlements and head westwards down major roads including the A580, M62 and A57, you will go past swathes of farmland and greenbelt land. Salford City Council’s website boasts that the city as whole has a lot of green space, which at 60%, is a fact which may have helped lead it to recently be listed the Greenest city in the country. Who would have thought? The majority of that green space is in this constituency, between the A580 and M62. This is mostly made up of Chat Moss, ancient fertile peat bog land which in itself forms 30% of the area of the entire city. Peat extraction once occurred here, but it is now protected wetlands and farming is now minimal. A former constituent named Worsley Man, dating from the Iron Age, was found preserved in the peat bogs and can now be seen at the Manchester Museum. Cadishead and Little Woolden Moss is one of the pioneering examples of peatland restoration in the North West, achieved through Lottery funding and run by the Lancashire Wildlife Trust. The boundary changes now bring in even more prime peatland in the form of Astley and Bedford Moss, thereby uniting some of the region's most important peat bogs into this constituency.
Keep heading down the A57 and you will arrive at the most isolated settlements of Salford you could think of, Irlam and Cadishead, awkwardly hanging off the south-western edge of the city along the ship canal and bordering Warrington to the west. Although Irlam has a railway station, the two settlements, now pretty much contiguous with each other, still feel somewhat disconnected from Salford and indeed Manchester by all that green space and the Ship Canal to the south. Irlam has an industrial park and the towns are otherwise residential and mostly made up of skilled working class residents, with little extreme deprivation or affluence save for the odd farm house. Both voted leave and are generally Labour, but in their bad years Cadishead has elected Conservatives in the past, and Irlam has elected Independents, including last year - perhaps indicating dissent with the powers that be all the way over at Swinton Civic Centre.
What about the new addition, the quaintly-named Astley Mosley Common, you ask? It may seem unthinkable to slough off a ward from proudly independent-minded Wigan borough / Leigh constituency into a 'Salford' seat, but it is not precedented and was the case from 1983-2010 in the old 'Worsley'. As well as containing more peatland, some people do live there, and it is fairly well-connected to Worsley down the A580 (or down the Bridgwater canal if you prefer). Though nothing like Worsley, it probably leans more skilled working class, being a former mining area (the Lancashire Mining Museum is located here, near the canal), and is one of the (relatively) less deprived areas of the current Leigh constituency, with average housing for nuclear families. It is quite possible the ward, likely strongly leave-voting, would have gone Conservative in 2019.
The constituency as a whole therefore is likely to be near if not slightly below average in terms of earnings, occupations and qualifications. The preceding 'Worsley and Eccles South' was created in 2010 from the old 'Worsley' (which had Worsley, Boothstown and Walkden as well as Astley), and half of ‘Eccles’ - a long snake stretching from Cadishead all the way to the border with Prestwich. Both were safely Labour, and Barbara Keeley held on for the new seat in 2010 with a majority of over 4,000 - she was first elected in 2005 for the old Worsley with a majority of 9,000. Originally from Leeds, her local links stem from her University of Salford education and election as Councillor in nearby Trafford. She built up the majority to just under 6,000 in 2015, but a hefty UKIP vote (well over 7,000 votes) meant it was at risk in 2017; of course Tory hopes at that election were almost universally dashed, and she achieved 57% of the vote and an 8,000 majority. The 2019 exit poll had this down as a Tory gain, and why not, seeing as neighbouring Leigh (Lab majority almost 10,000) switched, in the event, Ms Keeley held on by a comfortable (by Labour standards on that night) 3,219 votes. 3,224 votes went to the Brexit Party, and interestingly for a leave area the Conservative vote decreased slightly for Arnie Saunders, a Councillor from Kersal on the other side of the city, who was standing for the first time - the Tory candidate for the previous three elections was Iain Lindley of Walkden South, who resigned earlier that year from the party. The Lib Dems held their deposit (most likely made up of disaffected Tory remain voters from Worsley).
Although this seat is now a marginal, and now includes a fertile ward (not only agriculturally) for the modern Conservative party from their prized possession of Leigh, it would have to take yet another pro-Tory swing like 2019 to occur in 2024 to take this one over the line, which surely can’t happen after 14 years of Government. The Labour vote has proved to be too stubborn as with neighbouring Salford and Eccles which is also leave-leaning yet also saw a decreased Conservative vote in 2019. Disaffected voters will simply stay at home or split off into other parties in this area.
Keeley retired soon after the 2024 election was called, and now sits in the Lords as Baroness Keeley of Worsley. Michael Wheeler, a former Eccles councillor, easily held the new seat with a majority of over 11,000. Reform came second, while the Tories were mercilessly trounced into third with under 7,000 votes - remarkable for an area that contains ‘Worsley’, and where they had always come second in any incarnation of the seat.
