Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2023 17:42:17 GMT
YL also did a profile of this one, I have copy-pasted mine as the boundaries are identical
Na h-Eileanan an Iar
Na h-Eileanan an Iar, pronounced [nəˈhelanən əˈɲiəɾ] or (very, very roughly) nuh HEY-lah-nuhn uh-NYI-ur, is a unique constituency in many ways. For one thing, it is the only UK constituency with a Scottish Gaelic name, although until 2005 its official name was the English name for the area, the Western Isles. With around 21,000 voters, it has the smallest electorate of any UK constituency, around 12,000 fewer than Orkney & Shetland and slightly under 20,000 behind Arfon in North Wales. It is one of two constituencies protected by law, the other being Orkney and Shetland, which means its boundaries can never be changed, despite the numerical imbalance. It has a higher percentage of Gaelic speakers* than any other UK constituency, at 52% as of the 2011 census: only one civil parish outside the area has a percentage even as high as 40%, and no civil parish in mainland Scotland is more that 20% Gaelic speaking. 42.5% of the population said they spoke a language other than English at home in the 2011 census.
The Na h-Eileanan Siar council area, and therefore this constituency, contains both North Rona, the most remote British island ever to have been permanently inhabited, and the far more famous St Kilda Archipelago. St Kilda, or Hiort (pronounced ([hirˠʃt̪]) in Scottish Gaelic, had been continuously inhabited by the same population since the Neolithic era before it was abandoned by all 36 inhabitants on the 29th August 1930. The islands had been increasingly opened to the tourist trade at the end of the nineteenth century and many tourists came to view the islanders as curiosities. More seriously, young people increasingly left the island for better lives elsewhere, while more intense farming practices led to a succession of crop failures. The final straw came in January 1930 when a young woman fell ill with appendicitis but had to wait two weeks while a trawler was summoned to take her to a mainland hospital. She died in hospital, and the last of the islanders were convinced of the need for evacuation from the isolated island. A nurse employed by the Department of Health drew up a petition for government help with the evacuation and they left the island later that year.
Although not isolated to the extremes of St Kilda or North Rona, isolation is an important aspect of life in the Outer Hebrides, especially outside Stornoway. This is the main reason why these islands have their own, legally protected constituencies and why attempts to include some of the inner Hebridean islands have been overturned after protests from the local population, who cited the difficulty of representing the area. It is also partly what makes the Western Isles one of the most socially conservative parts of Scotland. It also has the lowest percentage of the population claiming no religious affiliation of any constituency in Scotland, at just 18.1% of the population, less than half the Scottish average. In general, the northern half of the area is more heavily Presbyterian, while the southern half is more catholic.
The constituency was created in 1918 from parts of Inverness-shire and Ross & Cromarty. At its first election, it elected Liberal Donald Murray, although he lost his seat to National Liberal William Cotts after just one term. He stood as a Unionist in 1923, losing by 233 votes or 2.7% to Liberal Alexander Livingstone. Livingstone handed the seat onto fellow Liberal Thomas Ramsay in 1929, and he then held on as a National Liberal in 1931. In 1935, Malcolm MacMillan gained it for the Labour Party, and held on until 1970, mostly on reasonably narrow majorities, although they increased as the anti-Labour vote became increasingly divided between Liberal and Conservative candidates. In 1970, the SNP reappeared and gained the seat with 43.1% of the vote. Although the Liberal vote had been declining for years, this was the final death blow to the Liberal challenge and the start of the seat’s period as an SNP-Labour contest. Labour regained it on a 23.3% swing in 1987 and held it until 2005, again mostly on narrow margins. It stayed marginal until 2015, although even then the 6.5% Lab-SNP swing was lower than in much of Scotland. In 2017 the SNP dropped by 13.7% to the benefit of everyone except the LibDems, and Labour came within 6.8% of winning it. It snapped back towards the SNP in 2019, with Angus MacNeil winning a 2,438 or 16.8% majority. It is still closer for Labour than many other Scottish seats, although that possibly says more about the position of Labour in Scotland than it does about this seat. Another feature of this seat is strong performances for the Scottish Christian Party, who won 7.6% of the vote in 2005, 6.6% in 2015 and 7.5% in 2017, although this is not a surprise for the most religious constituency in Scotland. The Conservatives had been relatively weak for a long time, having not hit 20% since 1966 before last year and losing their deposit in both 2005 and 2010. However, a couple of sharp increases in recent years took them to 22.2% in 2019, almost catching Labour for second place.
Like most of Scotland, this seat voted against both Brexit and Scottish independence, although it was more supportive of both than Scotland as a whole. Only two wards, Barraigh, Bhartasaigh, Eirisgeigh agus Uibhist a Deas (Barra, Vatersay, Eriskay and South Uist) and Beinn na Folgha agus Uibhist a Tuath (Benbecula and North Uist) voted more heavily remain than the Scottish average; An Taobh Siar agus Nis (West Side and Ness) on the north west of Lewis voted leave, albeit by only 20 votes or 1.45%.
Owner occupation is significantly above both the national and Scottish averages at 72.9% of households while social and private renting are both below at 17.6% and 12.4% respectively. However, this is not the indicator of affluence that it might be elsewhere, as incomes are comparatively low when compared to both Scotland and the UK, and the job market is skewed towards more working-class job categories. Much of its economy is based on traditional industries, such as farming, fishing, and the manufacture of Harris tweed. Highlands and Islands Enterprise defines the islands, including Stornoway, as an “economically” fragile area. There is some development, especially in the tourist industry, but by and large the area is still reliant on these fragile industries, which also helps to explain why incomes are quite so low in the area. According to the 2011 census, public administration and defence and human health and social work are the most over-represented industries by employee number, which also suggests a reliance on the public sector.
Identifying areas of strength for any party is difficult to say the least. Local elections, dominated as they are by independents, provide very few clues. Census statistics for National identity might provide some clues, on the basis that support for independence and therefore the SNP would be expected to be higher amongst people who identify as Scottish only rather than British only or Scottish and British. However, every ward is above the Scottish average for the percentage identifying as Scottish only, with the constituency average being 69.22% compared to 62.43% across Scotland. Gaelic speaking is not necessarily an indicator of SNP support in the same way that Welsh speaking might be indicative of Plaid support in Wales; if anything the age profile of Gaelic speakers, which is heavily skewed towards older people, is more likely to coincide with support for the Scottish Christian Party or even the Conservatives, especially as the language survives best in isolated and conservative areas and communities, which means this is also of limited use as a clue to voting patterns. There is some evidence to suggest that Catholics were more likely to vote in favour of independence and Protestants against, which might suggest that the Protestant north favours Labour while the Catholic south supports the SNP.
Of course, this is, in effect, a small community seat, comprising several such communities. Local politics is particularly important and will undoubtedly have an impact on general election voting patterns. The present incumbent is from the southern, heavily catholic island of Barra, so it is likely that his main base of support is here and the surrounding islands, as well as catholic voters in other areas. The 2019 Labour candidate was from the heavily Presbyterian North Uist, which might suggest a more northern and Presbyterian support base. Even this analysis has its issues, because a strict religious divide would deliver a win for the party of the Presbyterian majority, or in other words, Labour, which has not happened since 2005. Perhaps slightly counter-intuitively, the proportion of the population born in England is higher than the Scottish average, at 11.2% compared to 8.7% These are not spread evenly throughout the islands, with both Stornoway wards being below the Scottish average ad well below the constituency average at under 7% each, while Sgir’uige agus Ceann a Tuath nan Loch (Uig & North Locks) covering a large rural section of Mid Lewis is well above average at 16.65%. It is also possible, given the scepticism of voters born outside Scotland towards independence, that this also correlates with support for Labour and/or the Conservatives, although it could easily be an anti-SNP rather than a pro-Labour vote.
The real answer to the conundrum of voter patterns is likely to be a combination of all these factors, with an added factor of local personalities, issues and reputations that are not only difficult to pin down and write up, but that also change from election-to-elections.
Overall, this is a constituency know for breaking many of the normal rules of British and Scottish politics, and for bucking trends as easily as it follows them. It is an economically self-sufficient, but struggling and relatively deprived constituency, as well as a religious and conservative one, that divides itself between two major left-of-centre parties along an unusual mixture of demographic and ideological lines as well as the independence issue that is coming to define Scottish politics.
*A note on language terminology: there is a tendency to treat the names “Irish” and “Gaelic” as though they are interchangeable. They are not. Both belong to the Celtic branch of Indo-European languages, and both developed from Old Irish in the early Middle Ages. However, they diverged into two distinct languages, both members of the Goidelic or Gaelic branch of Celtic. The language spoken in Ireland is known as Irish and never Gaelic, while the language of Scotland can be known as Gaelic, or as Scottish Gaelic to differentiate it from the Gaelic language family, which also includes Irish and Manx.
Na h-Eileanan an Iar
Na h-Eileanan an Iar, pronounced [nəˈhelanən əˈɲiəɾ] or (very, very roughly) nuh HEY-lah-nuhn uh-NYI-ur, is a unique constituency in many ways. For one thing, it is the only UK constituency with a Scottish Gaelic name, although until 2005 its official name was the English name for the area, the Western Isles. With around 21,000 voters, it has the smallest electorate of any UK constituency, around 12,000 fewer than Orkney & Shetland and slightly under 20,000 behind Arfon in North Wales. It is one of two constituencies protected by law, the other being Orkney and Shetland, which means its boundaries can never be changed, despite the numerical imbalance. It has a higher percentage of Gaelic speakers* than any other UK constituency, at 52% as of the 2011 census: only one civil parish outside the area has a percentage even as high as 40%, and no civil parish in mainland Scotland is more that 20% Gaelic speaking. 42.5% of the population said they spoke a language other than English at home in the 2011 census.
The Na h-Eileanan Siar council area, and therefore this constituency, contains both North Rona, the most remote British island ever to have been permanently inhabited, and the far more famous St Kilda Archipelago. St Kilda, or Hiort (pronounced ([hirˠʃt̪]) in Scottish Gaelic, had been continuously inhabited by the same population since the Neolithic era before it was abandoned by all 36 inhabitants on the 29th August 1930. The islands had been increasingly opened to the tourist trade at the end of the nineteenth century and many tourists came to view the islanders as curiosities. More seriously, young people increasingly left the island for better lives elsewhere, while more intense farming practices led to a succession of crop failures. The final straw came in January 1930 when a young woman fell ill with appendicitis but had to wait two weeks while a trawler was summoned to take her to a mainland hospital. She died in hospital, and the last of the islanders were convinced of the need for evacuation from the isolated island. A nurse employed by the Department of Health drew up a petition for government help with the evacuation and they left the island later that year.
Although not isolated to the extremes of St Kilda or North Rona, isolation is an important aspect of life in the Outer Hebrides, especially outside Stornoway. This is the main reason why these islands have their own, legally protected constituencies and why attempts to include some of the inner Hebridean islands have been overturned after protests from the local population, who cited the difficulty of representing the area. It is also partly what makes the Western Isles one of the most socially conservative parts of Scotland. It also has the lowest percentage of the population claiming no religious affiliation of any constituency in Scotland, at just 18.1% of the population, less than half the Scottish average. In general, the northern half of the area is more heavily Presbyterian, while the southern half is more catholic.
The constituency was created in 1918 from parts of Inverness-shire and Ross & Cromarty. At its first election, it elected Liberal Donald Murray, although he lost his seat to National Liberal William Cotts after just one term. He stood as a Unionist in 1923, losing by 233 votes or 2.7% to Liberal Alexander Livingstone. Livingstone handed the seat onto fellow Liberal Thomas Ramsay in 1929, and he then held on as a National Liberal in 1931. In 1935, Malcolm MacMillan gained it for the Labour Party, and held on until 1970, mostly on reasonably narrow majorities, although they increased as the anti-Labour vote became increasingly divided between Liberal and Conservative candidates. In 1970, the SNP reappeared and gained the seat with 43.1% of the vote. Although the Liberal vote had been declining for years, this was the final death blow to the Liberal challenge and the start of the seat’s period as an SNP-Labour contest. Labour regained it on a 23.3% swing in 1987 and held it until 2005, again mostly on narrow margins. It stayed marginal until 2015, although even then the 6.5% Lab-SNP swing was lower than in much of Scotland. In 2017 the SNP dropped by 13.7% to the benefit of everyone except the LibDems, and Labour came within 6.8% of winning it. It snapped back towards the SNP in 2019, with Angus MacNeil winning a 2,438 or 16.8% majority. It is still closer for Labour than many other Scottish seats, although that possibly says more about the position of Labour in Scotland than it does about this seat. Another feature of this seat is strong performances for the Scottish Christian Party, who won 7.6% of the vote in 2005, 6.6% in 2015 and 7.5% in 2017, although this is not a surprise for the most religious constituency in Scotland. The Conservatives had been relatively weak for a long time, having not hit 20% since 1966 before last year and losing their deposit in both 2005 and 2010. However, a couple of sharp increases in recent years took them to 22.2% in 2019, almost catching Labour for second place.
Like most of Scotland, this seat voted against both Brexit and Scottish independence, although it was more supportive of both than Scotland as a whole. Only two wards, Barraigh, Bhartasaigh, Eirisgeigh agus Uibhist a Deas (Barra, Vatersay, Eriskay and South Uist) and Beinn na Folgha agus Uibhist a Tuath (Benbecula and North Uist) voted more heavily remain than the Scottish average; An Taobh Siar agus Nis (West Side and Ness) on the north west of Lewis voted leave, albeit by only 20 votes or 1.45%.
Owner occupation is significantly above both the national and Scottish averages at 72.9% of households while social and private renting are both below at 17.6% and 12.4% respectively. However, this is not the indicator of affluence that it might be elsewhere, as incomes are comparatively low when compared to both Scotland and the UK, and the job market is skewed towards more working-class job categories. Much of its economy is based on traditional industries, such as farming, fishing, and the manufacture of Harris tweed. Highlands and Islands Enterprise defines the islands, including Stornoway, as an “economically” fragile area. There is some development, especially in the tourist industry, but by and large the area is still reliant on these fragile industries, which also helps to explain why incomes are quite so low in the area. According to the 2011 census, public administration and defence and human health and social work are the most over-represented industries by employee number, which also suggests a reliance on the public sector.
Identifying areas of strength for any party is difficult to say the least. Local elections, dominated as they are by independents, provide very few clues. Census statistics for National identity might provide some clues, on the basis that support for independence and therefore the SNP would be expected to be higher amongst people who identify as Scottish only rather than British only or Scottish and British. However, every ward is above the Scottish average for the percentage identifying as Scottish only, with the constituency average being 69.22% compared to 62.43% across Scotland. Gaelic speaking is not necessarily an indicator of SNP support in the same way that Welsh speaking might be indicative of Plaid support in Wales; if anything the age profile of Gaelic speakers, which is heavily skewed towards older people, is more likely to coincide with support for the Scottish Christian Party or even the Conservatives, especially as the language survives best in isolated and conservative areas and communities, which means this is also of limited use as a clue to voting patterns. There is some evidence to suggest that Catholics were more likely to vote in favour of independence and Protestants against, which might suggest that the Protestant north favours Labour while the Catholic south supports the SNP.
Of course, this is, in effect, a small community seat, comprising several such communities. Local politics is particularly important and will undoubtedly have an impact on general election voting patterns. The present incumbent is from the southern, heavily catholic island of Barra, so it is likely that his main base of support is here and the surrounding islands, as well as catholic voters in other areas. The 2019 Labour candidate was from the heavily Presbyterian North Uist, which might suggest a more northern and Presbyterian support base. Even this analysis has its issues, because a strict religious divide would deliver a win for the party of the Presbyterian majority, or in other words, Labour, which has not happened since 2005. Perhaps slightly counter-intuitively, the proportion of the population born in England is higher than the Scottish average, at 11.2% compared to 8.7% These are not spread evenly throughout the islands, with both Stornoway wards being below the Scottish average ad well below the constituency average at under 7% each, while Sgir’uige agus Ceann a Tuath nan Loch (Uig & North Locks) covering a large rural section of Mid Lewis is well above average at 16.65%. It is also possible, given the scepticism of voters born outside Scotland towards independence, that this also correlates with support for Labour and/or the Conservatives, although it could easily be an anti-SNP rather than a pro-Labour vote.
The real answer to the conundrum of voter patterns is likely to be a combination of all these factors, with an added factor of local personalities, issues and reputations that are not only difficult to pin down and write up, but that also change from election-to-elections.
Overall, this is a constituency know for breaking many of the normal rules of British and Scottish politics, and for bucking trends as easily as it follows them. It is an economically self-sufficient, but struggling and relatively deprived constituency, as well as a religious and conservative one, that divides itself between two major left-of-centre parties along an unusual mixture of demographic and ideological lines as well as the independence issue that is coming to define Scottish politics.
*A note on language terminology: there is a tendency to treat the names “Irish” and “Gaelic” as though they are interchangeable. They are not. Both belong to the Celtic branch of Indo-European languages, and both developed from Old Irish in the early Middle Ages. However, they diverged into two distinct languages, both members of the Goidelic or Gaelic branch of Celtic. The language spoken in Ireland is known as Irish and never Gaelic, while the language of Scotland can be known as Gaelic, or as Scottish Gaelic to differentiate it from the Gaelic language family, which also includes Irish and Manx.
