Post by jamie on Jul 5, 2023 17:06:42 GMT
A new seat situated in the north west of Durham, this constituency will take in the western half of the Blaydon constituency along with the northern half of the North West Durham constituency. Politically, it will have a modest notional Labour majority. The Blaydon section is the more Labour part of the Blaydon constituency, while the Consett section is probably the more Labour part of the North West Durham constituency (it probably narrowly voted Labour rather than narrowly Conservative).
Labour do well in most parts of the Blaydon section. Owing to early industrialisation (importantly but not solely coal mining) and its proximity to Newcastle for post-war housing developments, this area has long been a stronghold of the Labour Party. It will have voted Labour in every election since 1922, and potentially even earlier. The Lib Dems began to challenge in the 2000s, but never came too close and have since faded away. Labour are strongest in Chopwell, famous for street names like 'Lenin Terrace'. Traditionally they will have been relatively weaker in villages like Rowlands Gill and Ryton, but theres little evidence of that these days. The Conservatives strongest ward currently is Winlaton and High Spen, which has swung strongly to them in the past decade owing to its more elderly and pro-Brexit population. It says something that the Labour majority was nonetheless over 30% this year.
The Consett section is much more politically marginal. Similar to Blaydon, it voted Labour in all but 1 election since 1922. For most of that time it looked like a safe industrial Labour seat. The swing to the Conservatives in North West Durham 2017 still left a majority near 20%, but the 10% swing in 2019 saw a narrow Conservative gain emblematic of the collapse in Labour support among many of its traditional supporters. The majority of the population in this half of the constituency live in urban Consett. Consett was one of the UK's major steel towns, and consequently voted Labour (though the Conservatives had a better vote historically than the town's reputation may suggest). The 2019 election will have seen the major parties fairly level across the town, with Shotley Bridge the most Conservative part. It’s a similar picture in the largely former mining villages to the north of Consett. Labour will have usually comfortably won most of these settlements but their majorities will have been severely cut in 2019. Dipton is probably their best village, while gentrified Burnopfield is probably (at least pre-2019) the most Conservative one.
Looking ahead, this ‘should’ be a safe Labour seat, certainly in the likely circumstances of the forthcoming 2024 general election. If Labour are winning the popular vote nationally then pretty much every community in this constituency should be voting for them, though like many other seats in the region it will be interesting to see how big the swing back will be.
Labour do well in most parts of the Blaydon section. Owing to early industrialisation (importantly but not solely coal mining) and its proximity to Newcastle for post-war housing developments, this area has long been a stronghold of the Labour Party. It will have voted Labour in every election since 1922, and potentially even earlier. The Lib Dems began to challenge in the 2000s, but never came too close and have since faded away. Labour are strongest in Chopwell, famous for street names like 'Lenin Terrace'. Traditionally they will have been relatively weaker in villages like Rowlands Gill and Ryton, but theres little evidence of that these days. The Conservatives strongest ward currently is Winlaton and High Spen, which has swung strongly to them in the past decade owing to its more elderly and pro-Brexit population. It says something that the Labour majority was nonetheless over 30% this year.
The Consett section is much more politically marginal. Similar to Blaydon, it voted Labour in all but 1 election since 1922. For most of that time it looked like a safe industrial Labour seat. The swing to the Conservatives in North West Durham 2017 still left a majority near 20%, but the 10% swing in 2019 saw a narrow Conservative gain emblematic of the collapse in Labour support among many of its traditional supporters. The majority of the population in this half of the constituency live in urban Consett. Consett was one of the UK's major steel towns, and consequently voted Labour (though the Conservatives had a better vote historically than the town's reputation may suggest). The 2019 election will have seen the major parties fairly level across the town, with Shotley Bridge the most Conservative part. It’s a similar picture in the largely former mining villages to the north of Consett. Labour will have usually comfortably won most of these settlements but their majorities will have been severely cut in 2019. Dipton is probably their best village, while gentrified Burnopfield is probably (at least pre-2019) the most Conservative one.
Looking ahead, this ‘should’ be a safe Labour seat, certainly in the likely circumstances of the forthcoming 2024 general election. If Labour are winning the popular vote nationally then pretty much every community in this constituency should be voting for them, though like many other seats in the region it will be interesting to see how big the swing back will be.
