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Post by johnloony on Jul 5, 2023 14:18:36 GMT
My guesstimate for the notional result for the 2019 general election is:
Lab 23,974
Con 21,579
LD 3,117
Grn 968
maj. 2,395
This calculation is based on the raw figures for the 2022 local elections for the relevant wards. The total for the wards making up the new Croydon East are:
Con 11,314
Lab 8,592
LD 2,237
Grn 3,178
compared with the total for the old Croydon Central are:
Con 11,102
Lab 9,721
LD 2,534
Grn 3,986
with adjustments made for the (newly split) Woodside ward and the (oldly split) Selsdon wards.
The bits which are taken out of Croydon Central to make Croydon East (Fairfield, Park Hill & Whitgift, and a bit of Woodside) almost exactly cancel each other out in terms of the net advantage for the two main parties, so the net change for the new Croydon East is a few extra Conservative votes from the fact that Croydon Central is expanded to include the whole of the Selsdon wards.
I have ignored the negligible number of votes for minor parties outside the four main parties. The demographic variations within the two Selsdon wards (in my guesstimated opinion) approximately cancel each other out (specifically, the bit of SAV which Croydon East gains is slightly more Laboury (compared with the average of SAV), but the bit of SVF which Croydon East gains is slightly more Conservativey (compared with the average of SVF))
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,037
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Post by nyx on Jul 6, 2023 10:16:56 GMT
The new constituency of Croydon East is formed out of the following 2010-24 constituencies: 82.9% of Croydon Central, and 9.3% of Croydon South. |
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Post by johnloony on Jul 6, 2023 16:05:49 GMT
I’ve just realised that this section is the demographic / psephological / population information thingy. I was assuming it was for notional results for the new boundaries. Anyway.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 6, 2023 16:12:17 GMT
My guesstimate for the notional result for the 2019 general election is: Lab 23,974 Con 21,579 LD 3,117 Grn 968 maj. 2,395 FWIW my own notional results are not dissimilar 2019 Notional result - Croydon East | Lab | 24667 | 48.1% | | Con | 21233 | 41.4% | | LD | 3354 | 6.5% | | Grn | 1117 | 2.2% | | BxP | 955 | 1.9% |
| | | | | | | | Majority | 3434 | 6.7% |
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Post by Robert Waller on Jul 6, 2023 16:51:44 GMT
I’ve just realised that this section is the demographic / psephological / population information thingy. I was assuming it was for notional results for the new boundaries. Anyway. This is the main new constituency section. Ideally each thread will start with a full profile of the seat - you are most welcome to contribute these, John! - but I do think notionals such as Pete's can start them off too, as that is such valuable information that it can profitably appear while waiting for the full profiles to be written. |
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Post by johnloony on Oct 14, 2023 12:37:01 GMT
Jason Cummings has been selected as Conservative candidate
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Post by johnloony on Nov 23, 2023 12:54:57 GMT
Michael Crick has tweeted: “ CROYDON EAST (Lab rank 178) EXCLUSIVE. huge problems, inc suspected fraud & allegations of large-scale tampering with membership lists in this Labour selection. Several complaints already made to Labour national & London region HQs, especially over use of online votes.”
The shortlist is:
Joel Bodmer (campaigner)
Johnson Situ (former Southwark councillor)
Natasha Irons (Merton councillor)
Olga Fitzroy (Lambeth councillor)
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Post by batman on Jan 29, 2024 18:56:20 GMT
edited to take into account the 2024 general election result
CROYDON EAST
This is a reappearance of a short-lived former constituency which existed only between 1950 and 1955, at which point Croydon's constituencies were renamed & redrawn. This is the most socially polarised of the proposed new Croydon, or part-Croydon, borough constituencies and has characteristics which reflect its potentially marginal status, though this status was only faintly in evidence in the inaugural contest of 2024. Demographic change has not been as sweeping as it has been in more northerly parts of the borough, but nevertheless this is a seat which was fairly safe for the Conservatives in its earlier existence (albeit on different boundaries) but is unlikely to be safe for them in the future except in their highest watermarks, quite possibly not even then. Herbert Williams comfortably won the seat for the Tories in the general elections of 1950 and 1951, but failed to live to see the boundary & name changes, and died in 1954, a by-election taking place which saw another comfortable Conservative hold before the seat's abolition. This revived Croydon East is based on and is the clear linear successor to the outgoing Croydon Central, but excludes the town centre and instead includes quite strongly Tory-voting areas previously associated with Croydon South, chiefly Selsdon, a suburb which has long and strong associations with Conservative Party history as well as being a consistently reliable area for them.
In the north-west of this new seat, as was the case in Croydon Central, are the areas of Addiscombe and Woodside. These are the furthest areas in towards London, and are the only ones which possess any inner-city characteristics in terms of architecture and atmosphere. Woodside has been a Labour stronghold for a long time but has considerably intensified in that respect; we have to go back to the meltdown election of 1982 to see the last time that Labour lost here, which in fact they did by a whopping majority, but for example when they gained it in 1986 it was only by a narrow margin. There has been a tendency for the ethnic minority population to grow noticeably in many parts of this constituency, but it is probably in this area where it has done so the most. This is Labour's most reliable part of the constituency. However, a small sliver of the council ward has been left out of this new constituency and is now part of Croydon West, although the majority is here in this seat. The wards in the Addiscombe area have, like those in Shirley to the east of here, been renamed and redrawn in the last ward boundary changes. Both its wards, East and West, are socially mixed, and have been for a long time, but Addiscombe West has a less suburban character and is quite strongly Labour, although not as much so as Woodside. The predecessor ward to Addiscombe East still had quite a large Tory majority a decade or so ago but the area has seen quite a strong Labour improvement. The Tories, however, remain competitive there in bad Labour years, and the last local elections in 2022 were, in Croydon at least, definitely not a good Labour year, and they were able to share the ward with Labour in their successful quest to bring an end to Labour's outright majority on the council. This ward is very socially mixed, parts of it having somewhat inner-city characteristics, but other parts being largely interwar owner-occupied suburbia not dissimilar to neighbouring Shirley. Taken as a whole, Woodside and Addiscombe have undoubtedly strengthened from a Labour point of view long-term, and proved to be a reliable source of Labour votes in the 2024 general election, more so than anywhere else in the constituency, although this was not in the end the only part of the constituency to vote Labour.
To the east of those areas lies Shirley, which is less socially-mixed and is a fairly sizeable community dominated mostly by owner-occupied interwar homes. The Black population has increased here as it has almost throughout the borough, except its very southernmost wards perhaps, and this has led to its two wards (now called Shirley North and Shirley South, whereas previously they were Shirley and Heathfield wards) becoming rather less heavily Conservative than they once were. However, Labour hopes of a breakthrough in either ward have not been realised, nor been all that close to being realised; the party has a respectable, but not really competitive, vote in these two wards. Labour entertained hopes that in a general election fought on national issues they might have been be able to improve on their 2022 results, and that the Tories would, at best, end up with only modest majorities in these wards, as they most likely did in 2017 when Labour's Sarah Jones gained Croydon Central from the prominent Tory Gavin (now Lord) Barwell. Although these wards cannot be characterised as marginal in most circumstances, the Tories, bearing in mind the overall result in 2024, appear to have failed to keep well ahead of Labour here, if indeed at all. This was one of the factors which enabled Labour to win this seat by, perhaps, a wider margin than some expected given the 2022 local election results. Shirley is not by general inclination a Labour area, at least not yet, but it is possible that in the end it may have given Labour a small plurality of votes in the 2024 general election, in all likelihood for the first time, as Labour's previous wins in Croydon Central when Shirley was included in that seat were achieved by significantly narrower margins than in Croydon East in 2024.
Another important area in this new seat and the outgoing Croydon Central is New Addington. This is very contrasting in character to the rest of the constituency, being essentially a largely council-estate-dominated part of the world right on the edge of the built-up area of London. New Addington has a very strong Labour heritage. It used to have two wards named Fieldway and New Addington, but in common with the ward name changes in other parts of this constituency they are these days more prosaically named as New Addington North and New Addington South. In their disastrous 1982 council election results, Labour was still able to win the then Fieldway overwhelmingly, and won comfortably in New Addington too. These were, remarkably, the only Labour victories in the entire borough that year, with even normally ultra-reliable Broad Green ward in West Croydon being gained by the Tories. While so many wards in various parts of the borough have seen substantial improvements in Labour's electoral position over the last few decades (after all, Labour never took control of Croydon until 1994), here the opposite is the case. This is not a unique phenomenon in outer-ring largely White council estates in greater London and has also been seen, for example, in Hainault in Redbridge and in Mottingham in Bromley. Labour had shown signs of recovering to a more comfortable position, possibly partly because these estates have become rather more multiethnic than once they were, but in the last local elections they were forced to share New Addington North with the Tories, and even more strikingly lost outright in New Addington South, which was not even all that close despite having a pretty comfortable notional Labour lead after the ward boundary changes. Labour hoped that this was largely a local phenomenon linked to voters blaming them for the effective bankruptcy of Croydon council under their control, and that in the context of a general election they would be able to outpoll the Tories with reasonable comfort, and these hopes appear to have been realised. The fact remains, however, that New Addington is a much less reliable area for them than it once was, and this served to limit the party's majority in Croydon Central in the 2017 & 2019 elections. They however made up for this in other parts of the constituency.
The constituency is completed by two further wards, Selsdon Vale & Forestdale, and Selsdon & Addington Village. These wards are by some distance the strongest areas for the Conservatives in the constituency and are for the most part of an unambiguously middle-class and rather prosperous character. They also have the largest majority of White residents in the constituency. Addington village is different in character from the New Addington council estates but is slightly less prosperous than Selsdon. In the 2022 local elections, the Tories won Selsdon & Addington Village with a commanding lead of well over 2 to 1 over Labour, but are stronger still in Selsdon Vale & Forestdale where their lead is more like 3 to 1. Again, Labour will have had some reasonable cause to hope that the Tory lead in these wards might be a little less overwhelming in the context of a general election, but these wards must have still given the Tories a very comfortable lead in the 2024 election.
This mixture comprises a new seat which may well be very interesting to watch in the future, though in the context of Labour's landslide of 2024 it was won with considerable ease, the majority for Natasha Irons (a former councillor in neighbouring Merton) being a perhaps surprisingly comfortable one of 6,825 over the Conservatives. The 2022 local election results provided encouragement for the Tories, but things were always likely to be different in an election dominated by national rather than local issues. The Tories would have hoped to rely on some sort of lead in the 4 wards covering Shirley and Selsdon, especially the latter, but they may well have failed to stay ahead of Labour in the former. Labour must have racked up a very big lead in Addiscombe West and even more so in Woodside, and were in the end able to supplement that with a smaller lead in Addiscombe East and the two New Addington wards. This equation may well be enough for a Tory win when the political wind is blowing more in their direction in the future, if demographic change does not further help Labour in the years to come, but in an overwhelmingly winning year for Labour it proved to be well beyond the Tories, despite the latter's continuing strength in substantial suburban swathes especially in the south-west of the seat. It is an interesting mixed seat with a variety of scenery and may yet be worth watching in forthcoming general elections.
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Post by batman on Jan 29, 2024 21:09:04 GMT
One of the Labour councillors who won in Woodside in 1986 was known to me at the time. He was, and maybe still is, a violinist who was active in Arts for Labour.
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Post by johnloony on Jan 29, 2024 22:08:31 GMT
One of the Labour councillors who won in Woodside in 1986 was known to me at the time. He was, and maybe still is, a violinist who was active in Arts for Labour. R. Trory, I presume? I just looked him up but I don’t remember or recognise the name or photograph. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Jan 29, 2024 22:48:14 GMT
2021 Census, new boundariesAge 65+ 15.0% 443/575 Owner occupied 58.9% 414/575 Private rented 19.7% 221/575 Social rented 21.3% 124/575 White 55.2% 521/575 Black 21.6% 17/575 Asian 12.5% 124/575 Managerial & professional 34.0% 256/575 Routine & Semi-routine 20.0% 417/575 Degree level 36.5% 175/575 No qualifications 17.6% 296/575 Students 7.9% 157/575 General Election 2019: Croydon CentralParty Candidate Votes % ±% Labour Sarah Jones 27,124 50.2 -2.1Conservative Mario Creatura 21,175 39.2 -3.2 Liberal Democrats Simon Sprague 3,532 6.5 +4.6 Green Esther Sutton 1,215 2.2 +1.1 Brexit Party Peter Sonnex 999 1.8 New Lab Majority 5,949 11.0 +1.1Turnout 54,045 66.4 -4.9 Registered electors 81,410 Labour hold Swing 0.6 C to Lab
Boundary ChangesCroydon East consists of 82.9% of Croydon Central 9.3% of Croydon South Mapboundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/london/London_125_Croydon%20East_Portrait.pdf
2019 Notional results on new boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)| Lab | 24340 | 48.1% | | Con | 20927 | 41.3% | | LD | 3341 | 6.6% | | Green | 1177 | 2.3% | | Brexit | 837 | 1.7% |
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Post by batman on Jan 30, 2024 7:29:25 GMT
One of the Labour councillors who won in Woodside in 1986 was known to me at the time. He was, and maybe still is, a violinist who was active in Arts for Labour. R. Trory, I presume? I just looked him up but I don’t remember or recognise the name or photograph. yes, Robert Trory . An orchestral violinist. |
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