Selby and Ainsty - 20th July 2023

[peterl]

Revised prediction

Lab 40.8
Con 34.5
LibDem 11.9
Reform 6.2
Green 3.3
Jordan 1.2
Palmer 0.7
Heritage 0.3
SDP 0.3
Wilson-Kerr 0.3
Gray 0.2
OMRLP 0.2
Climate 0.1

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Jul 17, 2023 14:34:53 GMT peterl said:

Revised prediction

Lab 40.8
Con 34.5
LibDem 11.9
Reform 6.2
Green 3.3
Jordan 1.2
Palmer 0.7
Heritage 0.3
SDP 0.3
Wilson-Kerr 0.3
Gray 0.2
OMRLP 0.2
Climate 0.1

Revised prediction accepted into competition, confirming it adds up to 100%

[manchesterman]

Lab 42.8%
Con 33.3%
Reform 6.5%
Lib Dem 5.5%
Green 5%
Yorkshire (Jordan) 4.1%
SDP 0.7%
Climate 0.6%
Heritage 0.5%
OMRLP 0.4%
Palmer 0.3%
Wilson-Kerr 0.2%
Gray 0.1%

[Roger Harmer]

Lab 41.5
Con 34.7
Reform 6
LibDem 5.2
Green 5.1
Yorks 4
SDP 1
Ind Wilson 0.7
Heritage 0.7
Ind Palmer 0.6
OMRLP 0.5
Climate 0.4
Gray 0.1

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Andrew Philip Gray (no description) 0.2
Claire Holmes (Con) 37.6
Mike Jordan (no description) - Yorkshire Party logo. 1.7
Dave Kent (Reform UK) 1.5
Keir Alexander Mather (Lab) 42.8
Nick Palmer (Independent) 0.2
Guy Phoenix (Heritage) 0.2
Sir Archibald Stanton (OMRLP) 0.4
Matt Walker (Lib Dem) 8.3
Arnold Francis Ignatius Warneken (Green) 3.2
John William Waterston (SDP) 2.8
Luke John Wellock (Climate Party) 0.3
"Yorkshire Tyke" Cllr Tyler Callum Wilson-Kerr (Independent) 0.8

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Jul 19, 2023 9:04:15 GMT Roger Harmer said:

Lab 41.5
Con 34.7
Reform 6
LibDem 5.2
Green 5.1
Yorks 4
SDP 1
Ind Wilson 0.7
Heritage 0.7
Ind Palmer 0.6
OMRLP 0.5
Climate 0.4
Gray 0.1

Roger Harmer

This has been accepted but I believe it adds up to 100.5, so you may wish to review your entry.

[LDCaerdydd]

Andrew Philip Gray (no description) 0.2
Claire Holmes (Con) 38.7
Mike Jordan (no description) - Yorkshire Party logo. 2.5
Dave Kent (Reform UK) 3
Keir Alexander Mather (Lab) 38.5
Nick Palmer (Independent) 0.5
Guy Phoenix (Heritage) 0.1
Sir Archibald Stanton (OMRLP) 0.1
Matt Walker (Lib Dem) 9
Arnold Francis Ignatius Warneken (Green) 3.9
John William Waterston (SDP) 2
Luke John Wellock (Climate Party) 0.5
"Yorkshire Tyke" Cllr Tyler Callum Wilson-Kerr (Independent) 1
100

[Sg1]

Lab: 42.8%
Con: 38.0%
LibDem: 5.4%
Reform: 4.2%
Jordan: 3.8%
Green: 2.6%
SDP: 0.9%
Heritage: 0.7%
Palmer: 0.4%
Wilson-Kerr: 0.4%
Gray: 0.3%
OMRLP: 0.4%
Climate: 0.1%

[kvasir]

Candidate	Party	Percentage
Claire Holmes	Conservative and Unionist Party	41.3
Keir Alexander Mather	Labour Party	38.9
Matt Walker	Liberal Democrats	4.8
Mike Jordan	Yorkshire Party	4.3
Arnold Francis Ignatius Warneken	Green Party of England and Wales	3.6
Dave Kent	Reform UK	2.6
John William Waterston	Social Democratic and Labour Party	2.4
Sir Archibald Stanton	Official Monster Raving Looney Party	0.8
Luke John Wellcock	Climate Party	0.3
Guy Phoenix	Heritage Party	0.3
"Yorkshire Tyke" Cllr Tyler Callum Wilson-Kerr	Independent	0.3
Andrew Philip Gray	No Description	0.2
Nick Palmer	Independent	0.2
Total		100

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

All 19 entries posted so far have been accepted into this competition.

Competition open for entries until close of poll, 10pm tonight.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

All 19 entries posted so far have been accepted into this competition.

Competition now closed

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Prediction Ranges

Andrew Philip Gray (no description) 0.10% by 6 predictors to 1.00% by mattb & borisminor a range of 0.90%
Claire Holmes (Con) 33.30% by manchesterman to 44.40% by nn2019 a range of 11.10%
Mike Jordan (no description) - Yorkshire Party logo. 0.10% by weld to 6.00% by kevinf a range of 5.90%
Dave Kent (Reform UK) 1.00% by weld & mattb to 6.50% by manchesterman a range of 5.50%
Keir Alexander Mather (Lab) 26.50% by nn2019 to 45.00% by borisminor a range of 18.50%
Nick Palmer (Independent) 0.10% by weld to 1.20% by doktorb a range of 1.10%
Guy Phoenix (Heritage) 0.10% by 3 predictors to 1.00% by mattb a range of 0.90%
Sir Archibald Stanton (OMRLP) 0.00% by mattb to 1.30% by nn2019 a range of 1.30%
Matt Walker (Lib Dem) 2.00% by borisminor to 12.30% by nn2019 a range of 10.30%
Arnold Francis Ignatius Warneken (Green) 1.20% by borisminor to 6.20% by YL a range of 5.00%
John William Waterston (SDP) 0.10% by borisminor to 3.00% by kevinf a range of 2.90%
Luke John Wellock (Climate Party) 0.10% by 3 predictors to 1.30% by jm a range of 1.20%
"Yorkshire Tyke" Cllr Tyler Callum Wilson-Kerr (Independent) 0.10% by 3 predictors to 1.60% by nn2019 a range of 1.50%

Winning margin prediction range

16 out of 19 predict a Labour win over Conservatives ranging from 1.00% by kevinf & weld & mattb to 9.50% by manchesterman a range of 8.50%
3 out of 19 predict a Conservative win over Labour by 0.2 by LDCaerdydd to 17.90% by nn2019 a range of 17.70%

(Errors possible in above)

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

I plan to post result between 8am and 10am tomorrow, this is likely not certain.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Congratulations to YL who wins the Selby and Ainsty Prediction Competition.

Completing the podium are manchesterman and Roger Harmer

EDIT: The percentages used for the results, as per by-election thread and wiki, added up to 100.1% due to rounding.

Final Scores including Penalties

YL 9.3
manchesterman 11.1
Roger Hamer 11.2
Sg1 13.1
sirbenjamin 14.9
greenhert 15.5
borisminor 16.7
batman 17.9
JM 20.1
DHAA 22.1
peterl 22.9
kevinf 23.1
mattb 23.1
johnloony 23.5

doktorb 23.9
kvasir 27.5
LDCaerdydd 30.9
weld 31.1
nn2019 56.5

Scores before Penalties

YL 9.3
manchesterman 11.1
Roger Hamer 11.2
Sg1 13.1
sirbenjamin 14.9
greenhert 15.5
borisminor 16.7
batman 17.9
JM 20.1
kvasir 21.5
DHAA 22.1
peterl 22.9
kevinf 23.1
mattb 23.1
johnloony 23.5
doktorb 23.9
LDCaerdydd 24.9
weld 31.1
nn2019 50.2

Thanks to all who took part.

DHAA

[manchesterman]

Pleased with 2nd spot, after not doing so great with the other 2.

A thousand thanks to Defenestrated Fipplebox for running the by-election prediction competitions!