Selby and Ainsty - 20th July 2023

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Parliamentary Prediction Competition for the Selby and Ainsty by election. 20th July 2023

The 13 candidates as a reminder are:
Andrew Philip Gray (no description)
Claire Holmes (Con)
Mike Jordan (no description) - Yorkshire Party logo.
Dave Kent (Reform UK)
Keir Alexander Mather (Lab)
Nick Palmer (Independent)
Guy Phoenix (Heritage)
Sir Archibald Stanton (OMRLP)
Matt Walker (Lib Dem)
Arnold Francis Ignatius Warneken (Green)
John William Waterston (SDP)
Luke John Wellock (Climate Party)
"Yorkshire Tyke" Cllr Tyler Callum Wilson-Kerr (Independent)

Rules
1. Predict the Exact percentage score for each of the 13 candidates, to 1 decimal place.
2. Your total predictions must add up to 100%.
3. You will be penalised the amount you are above / below 100%, so please check your predictions carefully.
4. You will be penalised 6 points for each candidate missing from your prediction.
5. You will be penalised 6 points for predicting the wrong winner.
6. Deadline for Predictions is close of Poll, 10pm on Thursday 20th July 2023.
8. The Winner is the person with the lowest score once scores, including any penalties, have been calculated after the by election.

Have Fun.
DHAA

[November_Rain]

Con 44.4%
Lab 26.5%
LD 12.3%
Reform 4.4%
Yorkshire 3.1%
Grn 2.75%
SDP 2.21%
Ind (Wilson-Kerr) 1.55%
OMRLP 1.25%
Heritage 0.66%
Ind (Palmer) 0.45%
Climate 0.25%
No Description (Gray) 0.18%

[batman]

There is literally no way the Tories could possibly win the seat by that much. I admire your bravery in entering the competition though.

I will enter later on in the proceedings.

[greenhert]

My prediction:

Labour 41.5%
Conservative 38.5%
Liberal Democrats 5%
Green 4%
Reform UK 3.5%
Yorkshire Party 3%
Climate 1%
SDP 0.9%
Independent (Wilson-Kerr) 0.8%
OMRLP 0.6%
Adam Gray 0.5%
Heritage 0.4%
Independent (Palmer) 0.3%

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Jun 26, 2023 17:45:50 GMT November_Rain said:

Con 44.4%
Lab 26.5%
LD 12.3%
Reform 4.4%
Yorkshire 3.1%
Grn 2.75%
SDP 2.21%
Ind (Wilson-Kerr) 1.55%
OMRLP 1.25%
Heritage 0.66%
Ind (Palmer) 0.45%
Climate 0.25%
No Description (Gray) 0.18%

November_Rain the competition asks for predictions to 1 decimal place, with rounding this prediction adds up to 100.3%, you may wish to adjust it.

[jm]

LAB - 39.1
CON - 34.2
LD - 9.1
YP - 4.6
GRN - 2.9
REF - 2.8
SDP - 1.7
CLIMATE - 1.3
IND (P) - 1.1
IND (W-K) - 1
OMRLP - 1
HERITAGE - 0.8
ND (GRAY) - 0.4

[johnloony]

Mather (Lab) 40.8
Holmes (Con) 37.3
Walker (LD) 9.8
Jordan (YP) 5.2
Warneken (Green) 2.7
Kent (RefUK) 2.2
Phoenix (Her) 0.5
Palmer (Ind) 0.4
Stanton (OMRLP) 0.3
Wilson-Kerr (Ind) 0.3
Waterston (SDP) 0.2
Wellock (Climate) 0.2
Gray (-) 0.1

[kevinf]

Lab 36
Con 35
LibDem 9
Yorks 6
Green 4
Reform 4
SDP 3
Ind Wilson 0.7
Heritage 0.7
Ind Palmer 0.6
OMRLP 0.5
Climate 0.4
Gray 0.1

[Deleted]

Mather (LAB) 43%
Holmes (CON) 42%
Walker (LD) 11%
Warneken (GRN) 2%
Kent (REF) 1%
Waterstone (SDP) 0.2%
Wellock (CLI) 0.2%
Gray (no description) 0.1%
Palmer (IND) 0.1%
Jordan (no description) 0.1%
Phoenix (HER) 0.1%
Stanton (MRLP) 0.1%
Wilson-Kerr (IND) 0.1%

[YL]

Lab 43.3
Con 34.6
Green 6.2
Reform UK 5.2
Lib Dem 3.5
Yorks Party 3.1
OMRLP 0.9
Gray 0.7
Climate 0.6
Palmer 0.6
Wilson-Kerr 0.5
SDP 0.4
Heritage 0.4

[sirbenjamin]

Lab 40.80
Con 37.20
Reform 5.20
LD 4.90
Green 4.40
Yorks 4.10
SDP 2.00
Gray 0.50
Looney 0.30
Climate 0.20
Palmer 0.20
Wilson-Kerr 0.10
Heritage 0.10

[doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️]

Lab 39.7
Con 35.0
LibDem 12.2
Reform 5.7
Green 2.6
Jordan 2.0
Palmer 1.2
Heritage 0.5
SDP 0.3
Wilson-Kerr 0.3
Gray 0.2
OMRLP 0.2
Climate 0.1

[peterl]

Lab 41.2
Con 35.1
LibDem 12.0
Reform 6.2
Green 3.3
Jordan 1.2
Palmer 0.7
Heritage 0.3
SDP 0.3
Wilson-Kerr 0.3
Gray 0.2
OMRLP 0.2
Climate 0.1

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Jul 17, 2023 3:06:09 GMT peterl said:

Lab 41.2
Con 35.1
LibDem 12.0
Reform 6.2
Green 3.3
Jordan 1.2
Palmer 0.7
Heritage 0.3
SDP 0.3
Wilson-Kerr 0.3
Gray 0.2
OMRLP 0.2
Climate 0.1

peterl

This prediction has been entered into the competition but it does add up to 101.1 not 100 so you may wish to adjust it.

[carlton43]

Jul 17, 2023 7:23:18 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

Jul 17, 2023 3:06:09 GMT peterl said:

Lab 41.2
Con 35.1
LibDem 12.0
Reform 6.2
Green 3.3
Jordan 1.2
Palmer 0.7
Heritage 0.3
SDP 0.3
Wilson-Kerr 0.3
Gray 0.2
OMRLP 0.2
Climate 0.1

peterl

This prediction has been entered into the competition but it does add up to 101.1 not 100 so you may wish to adjust it.

And yet another one is discovered and serves to epitomize the decline of Britain and the utter carelessness and incompetence that infest the nation.  Inattention, not checking, not proof-reading and sheer not caring enough; but a caring custodian wiping their little bums and patting their foreheads to ensure they suffer no detriment; thus relieving them of any responsibility or guilt, so they will do it again and again, ad nauseam.

[batman]

Lab 42.2
Con 35.1
LibDem 9.6
Reform 5.3
Green 3.1
Jordan 1.8
Palmer 1.0
SDP 0.7
Heritage 0.4
Wilson-Kerr 0.3
OMRLP 0.2
Climate 0.2
Gray 0.1

[mattb]

Oh go on then ...
(to nearest whole %)

Andrew Philip Gray (no description) 1
Claire Holmes (Con) 39
Mike Jordan (no description) - Yorkshire Party logo 2
Dave Kent (Reform UK) 1
Keir Alexander Mather (Lab) 40
Nick Palmer (Independent) 1
Guy Phoenix (Heritage) 1
Sir Archibald Stanton (OMRLP) 0
Matt Walker (Lib Dem) 8
Arnold Francis Ignatius Warneken (Green) 5
John William Waterston (SDP) 1
Luke John Wellock (Climate Party) 0
"Yorkshire Tyke" Cllr Tyler Callum Wilson-Kerr (Independent) 1

[batman]

I triple-checked that my entry added up to exactly 100 as the last thing, naturally, I would want to do is incur carlton43's wrath.

[borisminor]

Ind Andrew Gray 1.0%
Con Claire Holmes 40.9%
Ind Mike Jordan 5.0%
Reform Dave Kent 3.0%
Labour Keir Mather 45.0%
Ind Nick Palmer 1.0%
Herit Guy Phoenix 0.5%
MRL Sir Stanton 0.1%
LD Matt Walker 2.0%
Green Arnold Warneken 1.2%
SDP John Waterstone 0.1%
Climate Luke Wellock 0.1%
Ind Wilson-Kerr 0.1%

[nodealbrexiteer]

Jul 17, 2023 10:53:03 GMT batman said:

I triple-checked that my entry added up to exactly 100 as the last thing, naturally, I would want to do is incur carlton43's wrath.

Ya DHAA