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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 19, 2023 18:20:51 GMT
Kingsley Hamilton Anti Ulez (Independent) 0.4 Blaise Maxime Pascal Baquiche (Lib Dem) 4.9 Danny Boy Beales (Lab) 43.1 Cameron Swaran Bell (Independent) 0.2 Count Binface (Count Binface Party) 0.6 Piers Corbyn (Let London Live) 0.4 Laurence Fox (Reclaim) 0.5 Steve Gardner (SDP) 1.2 Ed Gemmell (Climate Party) 0.2 Sarah Charmian Green (Green) 3.7 Richard John Howard Hewison (Rejoin EU) 0.6 Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP) 0.3 Rebecca Jane (UKIP) 0.4 77 Joseph (Independent) 0.1 Enomfon Udoka Ntefon (Christian People's Alliance) 0.2 No Ulez Leo Phaure (Independent) 0.1 Steve Tuckwell (Con) 43.1
Labour to win.
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Post by manchesterman on Jul 19, 2023 18:48:09 GMT
Kingsley Hamilton Anti Ulez (Independent) 0.4 Blaise Maxime Pascal Baquiche (Lib Dem) 4.9 Danny Boy Beales (Lab) 43.1 Cameron Swaran Bell (Independent) 0.2 Count Binface (Count Binface Party) 0.6 Piers Corbyn (Let London Live) 0.4 Laurence Fox (Reclaim) 0.5 Steve Gardner (SDP) 1.2 Ed Gemmell (Climate Party) 0.2 Sarah Charmian Green (Green) 3.7 Richard John Howard Hewison (Rejoin EU) 0.6 Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP) 0.3 Rebecca Jane (UKIP) 0.4 77 Joseph (Independent) 0.1 Enomfon Udoka Ntefon (Christian People's Alliance) 0.2 No Ulez Leo Phaure (Independent) 0.1 Steve Tuckwell (Con) 43.1
Labour to win.
..after how many recounts?  |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 19, 2023 19:11:01 GMT
Kingsley Hamilton Anti Ulez (Independent) 0.4 Blaise Maxime Pascal Baquiche (Lib Dem) 4.9 Danny Boy Beales (Lab) 43.1 Cameron Swaran Bell (Independent) 0.2 Count Binface (Count Binface Party) 0.6 Piers Corbyn (Let London Live) 0.4 Laurence Fox (Reclaim) 0.5 Steve Gardner (SDP) 1.2 Ed Gemmell (Climate Party) 0.2 Sarah Charmian Green (Green) 3.7 Richard John Howard Hewison (Rejoin EU) 0.6 Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP) 0.3 Rebecca Jane (UKIP) 0.4 77 Joseph (Independent) 0.1 Enomfon Udoka Ntefon (Christian People's Alliance) 0.2 No Ulez Leo Phaure (Independent) 0.1 Steve Tuckwell (Con) 43.1
Labour to win.
..after how many recounts? 43.1 |
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Post by batman on Jul 19, 2023 19:41:13 GMT
phil156 would not be happy at such an eventuality. Nor would any of us I suspect.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2023 5:45:43 GMT
Kingsley Hamilton Anti Ulez (Independent) 0.4 Blaise Maxime Pascal Baquiche (Lib Dem) 4.9 Danny Boy Beales (Lab) 43.1 Cameron Swaran Bell (Independent) 0.2 Count Binface (Count Binface Party) 0.6 Piers Corbyn (Let London Live) 0.4 Laurence Fox (Reclaim) 0.5 Steve Gardner (SDP) 1.2 Ed Gemmell (Climate Party) 0.2 Sarah Charmian Green (Green) 3.7 Richard John Howard Hewison (Rejoin EU) 0.6 Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP) 0.3 Rebecca Jane (UKIP) 0.4 77 Joseph (Independent) 0.1 Enomfon Udoka Ntefon (Christian People's Alliance) 0.2 No Ulez Leo Phaure (Independent) 0.1 Steve Tuckwell (Con) 43.1
Labour to win.
Majority 56? |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jul 20, 2023 9:15:37 GMT
Kingsley Hamilton Anti Ulez (Independent) 0.5
Blaise Maxime Pascal Baquiche (Lib Dem) 5
Danny Boy Beales (Lab) 46.5
Cameron Swaran Bell (Independent) 0.5
Count Binface (Count Binface Party) 0.2
Piers Corbyn (Let London Live) 0.2
Laurence Fox (Reclaim) 5.6
Steve Gardner (SDP) 0.4
Ed Gemmell (Climate Party) 0.3
Sarah Charmian Green (Green) 4.4
Richard John Howard Hewison (Rejoin EU) 0.9
Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP) 0.3
Rebecca Jane (UKIP) 0.5
77 Joseph (Independent) 0.2
Enomfon Udoka Ntefon (Christian People's Alliance) 0.2
No Ulez Leo Phaure (Independent) 1
Steve Tuckwell (Con) 33.3
Others
100
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 20, 2023 9:37:06 GMT
All 16 entries posted so far have been accepted into this competition.
Competition open for entries until close of poll, 10pm tonight.
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Sg1
Conservative
Posts: 1,084 
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Post by Sg1 on Jul 20, 2023 14:11:15 GMT
Lab: 46.6%
Con: 41.3%
LibDem: 4.0%
Reclaim: 1.8%
Green: 1.5%
UKIP: 0.9%
Binface: 0.7%
Corbyn: 0.6%
SDP: 0.6%
Bell: 0.4%
Phaure: 0.3%
CPA: 0.3%
OMRLP: 0.3%
Rejoin EU: 0.3%
Anti-Ulez: 0.2%
Climate: 0.1%
Joseph: 0.1%
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 20, 2023 14:38:04 GMT
Lab: 45.6% Con: 40.1% LibDem: 4.0% Reform: 3.4% Green: 1.5% Reclaim: 1.2% UKIP: 0.9% Binface: 0.7% Corbyn: 0.6% Bell: 0.4% Phaure: 0.3% CPA: 0.3% OMRLP: 0.3% Rejoin EU: 0.3% Anti-Ulez: 0.2% Climate: 0.1% Joseph: 0.1%
Whilst this does add up to 100, it has a Reform candidate, when there is none, and no SDP candidate when there is one, you may wish to amend.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 20, 2023 14:38:42 GMT
All 17 entries posted so far have been accepted into this competition.
Competition open for entries until close of poll, 10pm tonight.
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Sg1
Conservative
Posts: 1,084
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Post by Sg1 on Jul 20, 2023 15:23:48 GMT
Lab: 45.6% Con: 40.1% LibDem: 4.0% Reform: 3.4% Green: 1.5% Reclaim: 1.2% UKIP: 0.9% Binface: 0.7% Corbyn: 0.6% Bell: 0.4% Phaure: 0.3% CPA: 0.3% OMRLP: 0.3% Rejoin EU: 0.3% Anti-Ulez: 0.2% Climate: 0.1% Joseph: 0.1%
Whilst this does add up to 100, it has a Reform candidate, when there is none, and no SDP candidate when there is one, you may wish to amend.
Just did. Thank you |
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,447
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jul 20, 2023 15:26:11 GMT
Whilst this does add up to 100, it has a Reform candidate, when there is none, and no SDP candidate when there is one, you may wish to amend.
Just did. Thank you nearly at 600 posts, congrats! |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 20, 2023 15:37:54 GMT
Whilst this does add up to 100, it has a Reform candidate, when there is none, and no SDP candidate when there is one, you may wish to amend.
Just did. Thank you
Revised prediction entered into competition.
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haribo
Forum Regular
Posts: 12
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Post by haribo on Jul 20, 2023 20:56:06 GMT
Lab 42.4
Con 34.3
Green 6.5
LD 5.9
Reclaim 3.6
Ind Hamilton 2.2
OMRLP 1.1
Rejoin EU 1
Ukip 0.6
Climate 0.5
SDP 0.5
Binface 0.4
LetLondonLive 0.4
CPA 0.3
Ind Bell 0.1
Ind Darwood 0.1
Ind Phaure 0.1
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 20, 2023 21:01:34 GMT
All 18 entries posted so far have been accepted into this competition.
Competition now closed
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 20, 2023 21:16:33 GMT
Prediction Ranges Kingsley Hamilton Anti Ulez (Independent) 0.20% by 3 predictors to 2.20% by haribo a range of 2.00%
Blaise Maxime Pascal Baquiche (Lib Dem) 2.60% by borisminor to 11.20% by docktorb a range of 8.60%
Danny Boy Beales (Lab) 39% by nn2019 to 52.80% by johnloony a range of 13.80%
Cameron Swaran Bell (Independent) 0.00% by mattb to 0.90% by YL a range of 0.90%
Count Binface (Count Binface Party) 0.10% by kevinf & borisminor to 2.70% by nn2019 a range of 2.60%
Piers Corbyn (Let London Live) 0.00% by mattb to 0.80% by manchesterman a range of 0.80%
Laurence Fox (Reclaim) 0.00% by mattb to 5.60% by LDCaerdydd a range of 5.60%
Steve Gardner (SDP) 0.00% by mattb to 1.40% by PeterL a range of 1.40%
Ed Gemmell (Climate Party) 0.00% by mattb to 1.20% by sirbenjamin a range of 1.20%
Sarah Charmian Green (Green) 1.00% by borisminor to 6.50% by kevinf & haribo a range of 5.50%
Richard John Howard Hewison (Rejoin EU) 0.00% by mattb to 1.10% by 4 predictors a range of 1.10%
Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP) 0.10% by weld to 1.40% by nn2019 a range of 1.30%
Rebecca Jane (UKIP) 0.10% by weld & borisminor to 1.40% by nn2019 a range of 1.30%
77 Joseph (Independent) 0.00% by 3 predictors to 0.30% by sirbenjamin a range of 0.30%
Enomfon Udoka Ntefon (Christian People's Alliance) 0.00% by mattb to 1.00% by doktorb a range of 1.00%
No Ulez Leo Phaure (Independent) 0.10% by 6 predictors to 2.00% by manchesterman a range of 1.90%
Steve Tuckwell (Con) 29.00% by kevinf to 44.00% by weld a range of 15.00%
Winning margin prediction range
17 out of 18 predict a Labour win over Conservatives ranging from 0.00% by DHAA to 21.00% by kevinf a range of 21.00%
1 out of 18 precicts a Conservative win over Labour by 2% by weld
(Errors possible in above)
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 20, 2023 21:16:53 GMT
I plan to post result between 8am and 10am tomorrow, this is likely not certain.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 21, 2023 1:48:15 GMT
Tuckwell (CON) 44% Beales (LAB) 42% Baquiche (LD) 9% Green (GRN) 2% Fox (RCM) 1% Kingsley (IND) 0.8% Binface (IND) 0.2% Corbyn (LLL) 0.1% Bell (IND) 0.1% Gardner (SDP) 0.1% Gemmell (CLM) 0.1% Hamilton (REJ) 0.1% Hope (MRLP) 0.1% Jane (UKIP) 0.1% Joseph (IND) 0.1% Ntefon (CPA) 0.1% Phaure (IND) 0.1% Good call |
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Post by manchesterman on Jul 21, 2023 2:02:53 GMT
Interesting to note that even the most positive prediction for the Tories by Weld was still lower than the actual vote for them. Clearly the anti-ULEZ feeling was underestimated by everyone!
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Post by ClevelandYorks on Jul 21, 2023 2:08:24 GMT
Interesting to note that even the most positive prediction for the Tories by Weld was still lower than the actual vote for them. Clearly the anti-ULEZ feeling was underestimated by everyone! I wish I’d put a bet on it because I had a strong feeling they’d hold it but I’m never quite confident enough of my predictions (which is why I never take part in prediction competitions!) |
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