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Post by mattbewilson on Jun 29, 2023 13:42:35 GMT
No Hertford constituency has ever been Labour-held. Labour did of course hold Hertford & Stevenage between 1974 & 1979. would you not consider Hertford and Stevenage a Hertford constituency? |
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Post by batman on Jun 29, 2023 13:55:09 GMT
no, it was dominated by Stevenage despite the name Hertford coming first. I meant a constituency called simply Hertford which has often existed in the past though not since 1974.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 29, 2023 14:20:43 GMT
If we fancy our chances in Hertford, then we're on course for a massive majority, so I think you're contradicting yourself. my point was that the local elections were not a perfect indication as to what might happen as where labour might do well in some places the greens and lib Dems have done well. We know though much of the time the Lib Dems specifically switch to labour in a general election. This new found confidence in the greens is harder to gage though. I think it's perfectly sensible to say despite Greens gains in East Herts Labour might win Hertford. Possibly go further, Green gains in East Herts makes it more likely. The pause for thought, is we just don't know for sure. It's a new world. Don't you agree? I agree that we don't know for certain how good a chance (if any) Labour has in winning Hertford & Stortford. But it doesn't matter, because it's not a seat needed for a majority, and in the seats needed for a majority the results in the 2023 local elections were good enough for a majority with room to spare. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Jun 29, 2023 14:47:01 GMT
my point was that the local elections were not a perfect indication as to what might happen as where labour might do well in some places the greens and lib Dems have done well. We know though much of the time the Lib Dems specifically switch to labour in a general election. This new found confidence in the greens is harder to gage though. I think it's perfectly sensible to say despite Greens gains in East Herts Labour might win Hertford. Possibly go further, Green gains in East Herts makes it more likely. The pause for thought, is we just don't know for sure. It's a new world. Don't you agree? I agree that we don't know for certain how good a chance (if any) Labour has in winning Hertford & Stortford. But it doesn't matter, because it's not a seat needed for a majority, and in the seats needed for a majority the results in the 2023 local elections were good enough for a majority with room to spare. have you got a link for that? I'd be interested to see what the numbers were like in marginals where there were council elections. I know labour did very well in Bracknell, Swindon, Medway, Thanet, etc. |
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Post by stodge on Jun 29, 2023 18:28:46 GMT
I see Greg Hands organised a "welcome" for Starmer in Selby this morning.
Not quite sure what such a thing is meant to achieve but I imagine it's all good publicity (as Hands might see it).
The 18% swing recorded in YouGov would be enough for Labour to just win the seat.
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Post by Ron Swanson on Jun 29, 2023 21:11:40 GMT
I see Greg Hands organised a "welcome" for Starmer in Selby this morning. Not quite sure what such a thing is meant to achieve but I imagine it's all good publicity (as Hands might see it). The 18% swing recorded in YouGov would be enough for Labour to just win the seat. He’s a twat. In fact, they all are. Such a shame that so many are stepping down and denying the electorate their moment of glory, in getting rid of them. |
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Jun 30, 2023 0:22:00 GMT
I see Greg Hands organised a "welcome" for Starmer in Selby this morning. Not quite sure what such a thing is meant to achieve but I imagine it's all good publicity (as Hands might see it). The 18% swing recorded in YouGov would be enough for Labour to just win the seat. He’s a twat. In fact, they all are. Such a shame that so many are stepping down and denying the electorate their moment of glory, in getting rid of them.Raab and Johnson especially. Did I see somewhere that IDS has been reselected? At least there would be a Portillo moment there if so. What swing is required in Tatton to see his partner in crime McVey unseated (for the second time of course!) ? Is it more or less than in Selby? Who is the next most notable / senior figure (after Johnson and Raab) who has been reselected and is vulnerable? Mordaunt? Hunt? It’s also a shame that so many of the few ‘decent’ Tories I have some respect for are also stepping down, the ones who have a modicum of decency who could rebuild the party to be at least a reasonable opposition. Most of them were already booted out by Johnson as part of the 21, but of those who are left I’m thinking of William Wragg for example, who was very clear and vocal in criticism of Johnson and Truss’ leadership, and Chris Skidmore, one of the increasingly few few non-headbangers on environmental issues. But both of them would likely have lost anyway. |
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Post by batman on Jun 30, 2023 2:15:56 GMT
IDS was reselected & is expected to stand.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 30, 2023 8:49:39 GMT
He’s a twat. In fact, they all are. Such a shame that so many are stepping down and denying the electorate their moment of glory, in getting rid of them.Raab and Johnson especially. Did I see somewhere that IDS has been reselected? At least there would be a Portillo moment there if so. What swing is required in Tatton to see his partner in crime McVey unseated (for the second time of course!) ? Is it more or less than in Selby? Who is the next most notable / senior figure (after Johnson and Raab) who has been reselected and is vulnerable? Mordaunt? Hunt? It’s also a shame that so many of the few ‘decent’ Tories I have some respect for are also stepping down, the ones who have a modicum of decency who could rebuild the party to be at least a reasonable opposition. Most of them were already booted out by Johnson as part of the 21, but of those who are left I’m thinking of William Wragg for example, who was very clear and vocal in criticism of Johnson and Truss’ leadership, and Chris Skidmore, one of the increasingly few few non-headbangers on environmental issues. But both of them would likely have lost anyway. Tatton is pretty bullet proof. Amongst the Cabinet, Chalk is pretty much nailed on to lose to the Lib Dems, whilst Hunt and and to a lesser extent Gove are plausible targets. Donelan and Frazer might also be vulnerable, though I'm not sure either will be specifically targeted. Given that most of the Cabinet represent wealthy southern seats, there aren't many plausible Labour targets. Shapps is probably the most vulnerable. Greg Hands ought to lose on a uniform swing, but the seat may be fools gold. Others who could plausibly lose to Labour, in approximate order of likelihood, are David TC Davies, Mordaunt and Mark Harper. However, none of those are exactly easy seats to win. |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Jun 30, 2023 10:24:38 GMT
Raab and Johnson especially. Did I see somewhere that IDS has been reselected? At least there would be a Portillo moment there if so. What swing is required in Tatton to see his partner in crime McVey unseated (for the second time of course!) ? Is it more or less than in Selby? Who is the next most notable / senior figure (after Johnson and Raab) who has been reselected and is vulnerable? Mordaunt? Hunt? It’s also a shame that so many of the few ‘decent’ Tories I have some respect for are also stepping down, the ones who have a modicum of decency who could rebuild the party to be at least a reasonable opposition. Most of them were already booted out by Johnson as part of the 21, but of those who are left I’m thinking of William Wragg for example, who was very clear and vocal in criticism of Johnson and Truss’ leadership, and Chris Skidmore, one of the increasingly few few non-headbangers on environmental issues. But both of them would likely have lost anyway. Tatton is pretty bullet proof. Amongst the Cabinet, Chalk is pretty much nailed on to lose to the Lib Dems, whilst Hunt and and to a lesser extent Gove are plausible targets. Donelan and Frazer might also be vulnerable, though I'm not sure either will be specifically targeted. Given that most of the Cabinet represent wealthy southern seats, there aren't many plausible Labour targets. Shapps is probably the most vulnerable. Greg Hands ought to lose on a uniform swing, but the seat may be fools gold. Others who could plausibly lose to Labour, in approximate order of likelihood, are David TC Davies, Mordaunt and Mark Harper. However, none of those are exactly easy seats to win. Donelan is I think helped by her seat being divided into two and thereby the LD base being weakened in each. Potential loss but I wouldn't necessarily count on it. Frazer... SE Cambs has to be one of the main LD target seats I would say, so probably loses, largely based on it just being one of the best LD opportunities rather than her being targeted specifically for being in the cabinet. It's significantly closer than Gove's seat. Greg Hands is a very interesting one because it's the sort of seat that's been trending away from the Tories for a long time and you'd expect them to lose easily- but where it's not clear who the tactical vote is for as the Lib Dems came second last election but Labour have generally been stronger there in the past. My guess is that the Lib Dems stay static while Labour gains at the Tories' expense and wins the seat. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 30, 2023 10:39:07 GMT
Tatton is pretty bullet proof. Amongst the Cabinet, Chalk is pretty much nailed on to lose to the Lib Dems, whilst Hunt and and to a lesser extent Gove are plausible targets. Donelan and Frazer might also be vulnerable, though I'm not sure either will be specifically targeted. Given that most of the Cabinet represent wealthy southern seats, there aren't many plausible Labour targets. Shapps is probably the most vulnerable. Greg Hands ought to lose on a uniform swing, but the seat may be fools gold. Others who could plausibly lose to Labour, in approximate order of likelihood, are David TC Davies, Mordaunt and Mark Harper. However, none of those are exactly easy seats to win. Donelan is I think helped by her seat being divided into two and thereby the LD base being weakened in each. Potential loss but I wouldn't necessarily count on it. Frazer... SE Cambs has to be one of the main LD target seats I would say, so probably loses, largely based on it just being one of the best LD opportunities rather than her being targeted specifically for being in the cabinet. It's significantly closer than Gove's seat. Greg Hands is a very interesting one because it's the sort of seat that's been trending away from the Tories for a long time and you'd expect them to lose easily- but where it's not clear who the tactical vote is for as the Lib Dems came second last election but Labour have generally been stronger there in the past. My guess is that the Lib Dems stay static while Labour gains at the Tories' expense and wins the seat. The issue with Frazer is that the primary Lib Dem target in the area is going to be South Cambridgeshire and whilst the Lib Dems do have a decent activist base in Cambridge, a lot of it will be reluctant to abandon it completely to help out elsewhere. Plus the boundary changes add reliably Conservative voters in Littleport and remove reliably Lib Dem voters on the outskirts of Cambridge. So she could certainly lose and as things stand I would expect her to, but the Lib Dems have been burned before by targeting too aggressively so I'm not sure that the local party will get that much support from elsewhere. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jun 30, 2023 10:45:33 GMT
I think there is a risk of opposition getting over excited and thinking based on the polls the Tories could lose any seat, but we all must know that’s not actually realistic not in a General Election setting anyway
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Post by adlai52 on Jun 30, 2023 10:52:36 GMT
He’s a twat. In fact, they all are. Such a shame that so many are stepping down and denying the electorate their moment of glory, in getting rid of them.Raab and Johnson especially. Did I see somewhere that IDS has been reselected? At least there would be a Portillo moment there if so. What swing is required in Tatton to see his partner in crime McVey unseated (for the second time of course!) ? Is it more or less than in Selby? Who is the next most notable / senior figure (after Johnson and Raab) who has been reselected and is vulnerable? Mordaunt? Hunt? It’s also a shame that so many of the few ‘decent’ Tories I have some respect for are also stepping down, the ones who have a modicum of decency who could rebuild the party to be at least a reasonable opposition. Most of them were already booted out by Johnson as part of the 21, but of those who are left I’m thinking of William Wragg for example, who was very clear and vocal in criticism of Johnson and Truss’ leadership, and Chris Skidmore, one of the increasingly few few non-headbangers on environmental issues. But both of them would likely have lost anyway. It's not even a left/right issue within the Conservative Party at the moment - many of the pragmatic, effective parliamentarians and ministers have been phased out over the last 5 years. It isn't helped by the fact that Conservative Party has been lured down the same path as the Australian Liberals, chasing a populists coalition that it is ill-equipped to represent at the same time as alienating many of the pragmatic and more moderate voters they could once rely on - see the success of the Teal Independents in Aus. If they lose next year then the parliamentary party could be in a very bad state indeed - with a high chance of a further lurch to the right that will delight activists but leave lots of ground for the LibDems/Others if - as I expect - a new Labour Government becomes (initially at least) v unpopular. |
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Post by adlai52 on Jun 30, 2023 10:54:52 GMT
I see Greg Hands organised a "welcome" for Starmer in Selby this morning. Not quite sure what such a thing is meant to achieve but I imagine it's all good publicity (as Hands might see it). The 18% swing recorded in YouGov would be enough for Labour to just win the seat. He’s a twat. In fact, they all are. Such a shame that so many are stepping down and denying the electorate their moment of glory, in getting rid of them. Maybe he's doing some amazing work behind the scenes at CCHQ - but based on his twitter feed and the result of the locals, the man is a clown and an embarrassment. Then again, any Conservative Party Chair has very little to work with at the moment - he has a much weaker hand than either the Conservatives in '97 or Labour in '10 (who could at least point to wins from the Blair years). |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 30, 2023 11:04:31 GMT
I think there is a risk of opposition getting over excited and thinking based on the polls the Tories could lose any seat, but we all must know that’s not actually realistic not in a General Election setting anyway Yes, my default assumption is still that they are fairly sure of 200 seats or thereabouts in a GE. |
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Post by adlai52 on Jun 30, 2023 11:19:15 GMT
I think there is a risk of opposition getting over excited and thinking based on the polls the Tories could lose any seat, but we all must know that’s not actually realistic not in a General Election setting anyway Yes, my default assumption is still that they are fairly sure of 200 seats or thereabouts in a GE. Which would still entail some huge losses - but I agree that there are some currently undecided voters who the Conservatives should expect to come back to them in a GE. Although I could imagine a few outliers, with high profile losses. |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Jun 30, 2023 12:34:39 GMT
I think there is a risk of opposition getting over excited and thinking based on the polls the Tories could lose any seat, but we all must know that’s not actually realistic not in a General Election setting anyway Yes, my default assumption is still that they are fairly sure of 200 seats or thereabouts in a GE. I think it's too heavily dependent on numerous factors like the state of the economy for the next year, whether or not Farage and/or Johnson try serious campaigns in new parties, etc. After the way the polls went during 2019, I'm hesitant to make any firm predictions at all about what will end up happening. |
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Post by Ron Swanson on Jun 30, 2023 12:57:40 GMT
He’s a twat. In fact, they all are. Such a shame that so many are stepping down and denying the electorate their moment of glory, in getting rid of them. Maybe he's doing some amazing work behind the scenes at CCHQ - but based on his twitter feed and the result of the locals, the man is a clown and an embarrassment. Then again, any Conservative Party Chair has very little to work with at the moment - he has a much weaker hand than either the Conservatives in '97 or Labour in '10 (who could at least point to wins from the Blair years). I think that as a governing party they're just clapped out, tired, out of coherent ideas... and in need of a stint in rehab. Voting Conservative is pretty pointless at the next GE, I feel. All you're endorsing is a continuation of a government making a complete hash of everything, rather than letting someone else take over - who may indeed be just as bad. Or worse. We don't know. Someone needs to just go up to Rishi and the chap at the BoE, put their arm around both in a semi affectionate, compassionate kind of way and explain to them that they don't have to do this any more. It really is okay. Today may be rough but you'll wake up tomorrow with a bit of vigour, and will want to enjoy the rest of your days in peace. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 30, 2023 13:08:19 GMT
I think there is a risk of opposition getting over excited and thinking based on the polls the Tories could lose any seat, but we all must know that’s not actually realistic not in a General Election setting anyway Yes, my default assumption is still that they are fairly sure of 200 seats or thereabouts in a GE. My default assumption is that they're sure of 100 and they'll likely win another 100, it's just very difficult to tell which 100. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Jun 30, 2023 13:12:51 GMT
Yes, my default assumption is still that they are fairly sure of 200 seats or thereabouts in a GE. Which would still entail some huge losses - but I agree that there are some currently undecided voters who the Conservatives should expect to come back to them in a GE. Although I could imagine a few outliers, with high profile losses. yeah, I think if all the Tory undecided returns they would be on 35% or something which doesn't seem unreasonable |
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