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Post by andrewp on Jun 16, 2023 7:20:05 GMT
The South Derbyshire result obviously follows on from the unsubstantiated and unprovable rumour that the 3 Conservatives were going to be elected on May 4th.
And it also prompts me to think that given the time of the death being informed to the returning officer, had they counted overnight then this would have been a single seat by election ( probably won by the LDs) so the choice of time of the count might have influenced whether this ward has 2x Con and 1 x LD or 2x LD and 1x Con councillors.
On an electoral law point, is it a legal requirement to notify the RO of the death immediately that it’s possible or could they have waited until after the result was declared I wonder?
In my view, the electoral law should have allowed for 3 candidates to be elected in May and for this to have been a single seat by election.
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Post by matureleft on Jun 16, 2023 7:40:19 GMT
The South Derbyshire result obviously follows on from the unsubstantiated and unprovable rumour that the 3 Conservatives were going to be elected on May 4th. And it also prompts me to think that given the time of the death being informed to the returning officer, had they counted overnight then this would have been a single seat by election ( probably won by the LDs) so the choice of time of the count might well have influenced whether this ward has 2x Con and 1 x LD or 2x LD and 1x Con councillors. On an electoral law point, is it a legal requirement to notify the RO of the death immediately that it’s possible or could they have waited until after the result was declared I wonder? In my view, the electoral law should have allowed for 3 candidates to be elected in May and for this to have been a single seat by election. As I remarked further up this thread, the Lib Dems claimed some knowledge of the count in their election literature and used it to suggest a “two horse race”. |
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Tony Otim
Green
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 16, 2023 7:54:27 GMT
 ? They kept all but one vote they got last May on a much lower turnout when everybody else's vote except Labour's was crashing through the floor. Yes, no huge strides forward but then who is really expecting them to make those? They did about as well as could be reasonably expected  I actually thought the British Unionists might do a bit better than that here... As a nationalist non-SNP party, I'd have thought they (and the Scottish Greens) would hope to cash in on SNP travails. OK, their vote share is up (albeit on low turnout) but the big winner was a unionist party, with Alba (and Scottish Greens) beaten by a fringe unionist party. Overall, the nationalist vote share (which is their pool) is well down. If thy can't make big strides forward when the SNP look as weak as they can be expected to be, what is their future? You mean there isn't much of a market for a socially conservative nationalist party led by a sex pest as a vanity project. I'm shocked I tell you, shocked! Seriously though the idea that thousands of voters were suddenly going to switch to Alba was always quite ridiculous. Labour are clearly taking some of the softer nationalist support but a lot of disenchanted SNP voters are also clearly sitting on their arses at home rather than voting at all at the moment. It will be interesting to compare the swing here to East Kilbride in a few weeks, where the same national issues will apply but not the local ones. I'd expect Labour to still gain from both SNP and Tory but probably not to the same extent, but probably enough to give them the seat. |
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Tony Otim
Green
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 16, 2023 7:55:39 GMT
The South Derbyshire result obviously follows on from the unsubstantiated and unprovable rumour that the 3 Conservatives were going to be elected on May 4th. And it also prompts me to think that given the time of the death being informed to the returning officer, had they counted overnight then this would have been a single seat by election ( probably won by the LDs) so the choice of time of the count might well have influenced whether this ward has 2x Con and 1 x LD or 2x LD and 1x Con councillors. On an electoral law point, is it a legal requirement to notify the RO of the death immediately that it’s possible or could they have waited until after the result was declared I wonder? In my view, the electoral law should have allowed for 3 candidates to be elected in May and for this to have been a single seat by election. As I remarked further up this thread, the Lib Dems claimed some knowledge of the count in their election literature and used it to suggest a “two horse race”. And claims in Lib Dem election literature are always 100% accurate 😉 |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 16, 2023 7:59:57 GMT
If election literature had to be accompanied by a statement of truth, so that any statement made without an honest belief in its truth was contempt of court, I wonder how that would affect their substance.
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 16, 2023 8:23:22 GMT
If election literature had to be accompanied by a statement of truth, so that any statement made without an honest belief in its truth was contempt of court, I wonder how that would affect their substance. testing "an honest belief in its truth" will be interesting. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 16, 2023 8:30:25 GMT
As I remarked further up this thread, the Lib Dems claimed some knowledge of the count in their election literature and used it to suggest a “two horse race”. And claims in Lib Dem election literature are always 100% accurate 😉 Glad you see it that way |
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 16, 2023 9:33:19 GMT
In my view, the electoral law should have allowed for 3 candidates to be elected in May and for this to have been a single seat by election. I think that was the general consensus on here when previously discussed, yes. |
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Post by bungle on Jun 16, 2023 9:59:02 GMT
First Lib Dems on South Derbyshire District since they lost in Church Gresley in 1991. A reasonable Labour result bearing in mind what was a fairly obvious squeeze. The boundary commission places Hilton in Derbyshire Dales constituency (which the northern and most rural part fits well - it used to be a separate ward and was represented by a cheery local farmer and before that, incongruously, by a Labour-inclined vicar who was removed when his colours became obvious). Ah yes - 3 Michaels... Mike Lacey was the last Lib Dem councillor who later joined the Conservatives. Managed to get elected to the County Council in 2009 for Newhall but became Independent by 2013. Mick Bale - cheery local farmer is spot on - used to see him a lot in and around Sutton on the Hill. Was pleased when Labour supported him to be Chair of the Council (rather than rotating through the same few councillors for the second or third time) and Rev Michael Clark 'Speedy' - he eventually joined the Labour Party, or at the very least campaigned for you in the 90s. North West Ward was the safest (if smallest) Tory ward - 72% in 1995! As you say, it fits in well with that pastoral stretch of Derbyshire Dales south of Ashbourne. |
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Post by samdwebber on Jun 16, 2023 10:07:52 GMT
The South Derbyshire result obviously follows on from the unsubstantiated and unprovable rumour that the 3 Conservatives were going to be elected on May 4th. And it also prompts me to think that given the time of the death being informed to the returning officer, had they counted overnight then this would have been a single seat by election ( probably won by the LDs) so the choice of time of the count might well have influenced whether this ward has 2x Con and 1 x LD or 2x LD and 1x Con councillors. On an electoral law point, is it a legal requirement to notify the RO of the death immediately that it’s possible or could they have waited until after the result was declared I wonder? In my view, the electoral law should have allowed for 3 candidates to be elected in May and for this to have been a single seat by election. As I remarked further up this thread, the Lib Dems claimed some knowledge of the count in their election literature and used it to suggest a “two horse race”. I wont't comment on the LibDem leaflets but I should share this 'rumour' of 3 Conservatives topping the poll in May was also spread in the House of Commons by Heather Wheeler MP in her PMQ to the Deputy PM Oliver Dowden on 17th May: Mrs Heather Wheeler (South Derbyshire) (Con) Q3. Will my right hon. Friend please send his condolences to the family of Hilton ward Councillor Gillian Lemmon, who at the young age of 52 tragically died part way through the election count on Friday? That means that the whole election for all three councillors has had to be voided, even though the returning officer was ready to declare three Conservative councillors for the Hilton ward. Following that dreadful experience, will my right hon. Friend confirm that the best way to thank Councillor Gillian Lemmon for her service is for the good people of Hilton ward in South Derbyshire to vote again three times for the three Conservative candidates on Thursday 15 June? (904971) The Deputy Prime Minister Sharethis specific contribution May I extend my deepest sympathies on behalf of the Government Benches and the Conservative party to Councillor Gillian Lemmon’s family? We all know how incredibly hard local councillors work and she was a strong representative of South Derbyshire. Like my hon. Friend, I hope that the people of Hilton ward will reflect on this by voting for Conservative candidates at the forthcoming election. hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2023-05-17/debates/D1740219-0DE5-4CFC-B885-25A92E3C873E/details#contribution-DF952E36-B5E1-43C9-8D15-12E3D1BBA969 |
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Post by phil156 on Jun 16, 2023 10:09:39 GMT
Just to say thankyou to Andrew for the percentages very easy I think to see how the various parties actually did especially when you are on a power press all night. Great stuff Andrew
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 16, 2023 10:16:37 GMT
WEST DEVON Burrator
VINEY, Nicola (Liberal Democrats) 510
WEST, Christopher Paul (Liberal Democrats) 401
MOYSE, Diana Elizabeth Conservative Party Candidate) 275
DAVIES, Felix (Conservative Party Candidate) 221
MILLER, Dave (Green Party) 166
CHURCHLEY, John Edward (Labour Party) 101
NORTH, Sam (Green Party) 76
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 16, 2023 10:25:13 GMT
That's a strong finish to the week from the Lib Dems.
All in all, everyone except the Conservatives and the SNP can be pretty happy this week.
Labour held their 2 defences and had a very good result in North Lanarkshire, gaining the seat.
Lib Dems have 4 gains from the Conservatives (1 reversing a by-election loss) in the countermanded elections, which probably makes up for the St Albans loss and narrowly missing Sunderland
Greens gained the seat in St Albans which was the only realistic target.
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 16, 2023 10:28:08 GMT
WEST DEVON Burrator VINEY, Nicola (Liberal Democrats) 510 WEST, Christopher Paul (Liberal Democrats) 401 MOYSE, Diana Elizabeth Conservative Party Candidate) 275 DAVIES, Felix (Conservative Party Candidate) 221 MILLER, Dave (Green Party) 166 CHURCHLEY, John Edward (Labour Party) 101 NORTH, Sam (Green Party) 76 I think that means of the 12 seats up for grabs this week, 6 Con, 3 LD,2 Lab, and 1 SNP has turned into 7 LD, 3 Lab,1 Con and 1 Green. |
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Post by andrewp on Jun 16, 2023 10:31:07 GMT
WEST DEVON Burrator VINEY, Nicola (Liberal Democrats) 510 WEST, Christopher Paul (Liberal Democrats) 401 MOYSE, Diana Elizabeth Conservative Party Candidate) 275 DAVIES, Felix (Conservative Party Candidate) 221 MILLER, Dave (Green Party) 166 CHURCHLEY, John Edward (Labour Party) 101 NORTH, Sam (Green Party) 76 I think that means of the 12 seats up for grabs this week, 6 Con, 3 LD,2 Lab, and 1 SNP has turned into 7 LD, 3 Lab,1 Con and 1 Green. I make it that It was 5 Con 4 LD 2 Lab and 1 SNP |
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 16, 2023 10:34:42 GMT
It depends where your baseline is, given the LibDems reversed a byelection loss to the Tories in Surrey Heath.
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Post by andrewp on Jun 16, 2023 10:38:17 GMT
It depends where your baseline is, given the LibDems reversed a byelection loss to the Tories in Surrey Heath. Yes that would be the difference between my numbers and Yellowperil. |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 16, 2023 10:38:37 GMT
It depends where your baseline is, given the LibDems reversed a byelection loss to the Tories in Surrey Heath. If your baseline for Surrey Heath is 2019, it's actually 5 LD starting position - 3 there, st albans a d 1 in West Devon |
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 16, 2023 10:49:09 GMT
I think that means of the 12 seats up for grabs this week, 6 Con, 3 LD,2 Lab, and 1 SNP has turned into 7 LD, 3 Lab,1 Con and 1 Green. I make it that It was 5 Con 4 LD 2 Lab and 1 SNP You are of course quite right, and no I wasn't trying to make a specious argument around reversing byelection losses. I had simply at that moment forgotten we already held one of the Burrator seats - just done in haste when looking at the result come through and wanting to get back to the Test Match. |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jun 16, 2023 12:04:39 GMT
Annoyingly (to me, if no one else), when I put the results into my GWBWI spreadsheet, the multiple elections in South Derbyshire and West Devon showed up a flaw - which I think I accidentally introduced in April when dealing with the Scottish STV elections. And I don't have time to fix it until at least Sunday. Sorry to those who are bothered!
And just when we were back to having a reasonable number of by elections to collate.
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