jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,053 
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Post by jamie on Jun 15, 2023 23:11:53 GMT
Very surprised Labour held Hendon. The council still isn’t too popular, so a free hit by-election should have been a great opportunity for the Lib Dem by-election machine to do their thing (I would have expected a Lib Dem blowout before a Labour win). Disagree. Thought labour would do much better. Sunderland results were good for them in May (no losses) and they had the luxury of being able to pile in to this byelection. So I am surprised it was this close. The Sunderland results were not good vs the Lib Dem’, they basically stagnated. The Lib Dems also had the luxury of pilling in, and previous Sunderland by-election results show what happens when they do. |
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Post by andrewteale on Jun 15, 2023 23:21:19 GMT
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 15, 2023 23:22:37 GMT
Very surprised Labour held Hendon. The council still isn’t too popular, so a free hit by-election should have been a great opportunity for the Lib Dem by-election machine to do their thing (I would have expected a Lib Dem blowout before a Labour win). Disagree. Thought labour would do much better. Sunderland results were good for them in May (no losses) and they had the luxury of being able to pile in to this byelection. So I am surprised it was this close. I think you were both right! but two effects were cancelling each other out. Yes the council may be still unpopular but there were signs in May of some stabilisation, and a one off election meant both party machines were on high alert. I therefore thought it would be very tight (correct) but thought the Lib Dems might just take it (wrong). |
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Post by andrewp on Jun 15, 2023 23:31:50 GMT
Surrey Heath, Frimley Green
LD 1131, 1111, 1070
Con 738, 610, 608
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Post by phil156 on Jun 15, 2023 23:32:16 GMT
I am missing the percentages always like seeing the ups and downs or sideways for that matter
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jun 15, 2023 23:42:06 GMT
Looks like a poor result for Alba, to me. Any comment from someone with more knowledge (i.e. anyone at all, really)?  ? They kept all but one vote they got last May on a much lower turnout when everybody else's vote except Labour's was crashing through the floor. Yes, no huge strides forward but then who is really expecting them to make those? They did about as well as could be reasonably expected  I actually thought the British Unionists might do a bit better than that here... As a nationalist non-SNP party, I'd have thought they (and the Scottish Greens) would hope to cash in on SNP travails. OK, their vote share is up (albeit on low turnout) but the big winner was a unionist party, with Alba (and Scottish Greens) beaten by a fringe unionist party. Overall, the nationalist vote share (which is their pool) is well down. If thy can't make big strides forward when the SNP look as weak as they can be expected to be, what is their future? |
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 15, 2023 23:43:48 GMT
I am missing the percentages always like seeing the ups and downs or sideways for that matter Do you not have access to a calculator?I always am checking the results even when allegedpercentages are being quoted! |
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 15, 2023 23:52:25 GMT
Sunderland, Hendon Steve Donkin (Lib Dems) 865 Helmut Izaks (Green) 79 Ian Jones (Reform UK) 87 Lynda Scanlan (Labour) 878 Georgina Young (Conservative) 104 Lab Hold
Reform almost outpolled the Tories!
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 15, 2023 23:53:34 GMT
NORTH LANARKSHIRE, Bellshill - Lab gain from SNP Lab 1416 SNP 740 C 233 British Unionist 108 Alba 103 Grn 43 LD 30 Scottish Family Party 28 Freedom Alliance 7 UKIP 5 - that's a Labour win on first preferences. That UKIP tally brings back memories of Wolfie Smith!  |
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Post by phil156 on Jun 16, 2023 0:17:41 GMT
I am missing the percentages always like seeing the ups and downs or sideways for that matter Do you not have access to a calculator?I always am checking the results even when allegedpercentages are being quoted! No at work making car bodies think we only waiting now for South Derbyshire unless Ive missed one |
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
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Post by peterl on Jun 16, 2023 1:20:37 GMT
South Derbyshire, Hilton Ward
Lib Dems 636/628//562
Conservative 633/580/577
Labour 365/361/377
2 x Lib Dem Gain from Conservative, 1 x Conservative Hold
21.3% Turnout
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,140
Member is Online
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Post by cogload on Jun 16, 2023 3:04:18 GMT
NORTH LANARKSHIRE, Bellshill - Lab gain from SNP Lab 1416 SNP 740 C 233 British Unionist 108 Alba 103 Grn 43 LD 30 Scottish Family Party 28 Freedom Alliance 7 UKIP 5 - that's a Labour win on first preferences. Independence is coming... |
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Post by matureleft on Jun 16, 2023 3:39:45 GMT
South Derbyshire, Hilton Ward Lib Dems 636/628//562 Conservative 633/580/577 Labour 365/361/377 2 x Lib Dem Gain from Conservative, 1 x Conservative Hold 21.3% Turnout I did suggest this possibility in my comments further up the thread and was surprised at the consensus of predictions. It’ll be interesting to see which Tory survived (bearing in mind one was their putative group leader). First Lib Dems on South Derbyshire District since they lost in Church Gresley in 1991. A reasonable Labour result bearing in mind what was a fairly obvious squeeze. The boundary commission places Hilton in Derbyshire Dales constituency (which the northern and most rural part fits well - it used to be a separate ward and was represented by a cheery local farmer and before that, incongruously, by a Labour-inclined vicar who was removed when his colours became obvious). |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 16, 2023 4:40:08 GMT
South Derbyshire, Hilton Ward Lib Dems 636/628//562 Conservative 633/580/577 Labour 365/361/377 2 x Lib Dem Gain from Conservative, 1 x Conservative Hold 21.3% Turnout I did suggest this possibility in my comments further up the thread and was surprised at the consensus of predictions. It’ll be interesting to see which Tory survived (bearing in mind one was their putative group leader). First Lib Dems on South Derbyshire District since they lost in Church Gresley in 1991. A reasonable Labour result bearing in mind what was a fairly obvious squeeze. The boundary commission places Hilton in Derbyshire Dales constituency (which the northern and most rural part fits well - it used to be a separate ward and was represented by a cheery local farmer and before that, incongruously, by a Labour-inclined vicar who was removed when his colours became obvious). Apparently the Group leader was one of the two defeated Tories |
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Post by matureleft on Jun 16, 2023 5:45:47 GMT
I did suggest this possibility in my comments further up the thread and was surprised at the consensus of predictions. It’ll be interesting to see which Tory survived (bearing in mind one was their putative group leader). First Lib Dems on South Derbyshire District since they lost in Church Gresley in 1991. A reasonable Labour result bearing in mind what was a fairly obvious squeeze. The boundary commission places Hilton in Derbyshire Dales constituency (which the northern and most rural part fits well - it used to be a separate ward and was represented by a cheery local farmer and before that, incongruously, by a Labour-inclined vicar who was removed when his colours became obvious). Apparently the Group leader was one of the two defeated Tories Indeed. SDDC’s site updated straight away. Incidentally andrewteale gave a staggering example of the miserable relations among the Tories here that severely damaged their group. |
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Post by Rutlander on Jun 16, 2023 6:01:00 GMT
I did suggest this possibility in my comments further up the thread and was surprised at the consensus of predictions. It’ll be interesting to see which Tory survived (bearing in mind one was their putative group leader). First Lib Dems on South Derbyshire District since they lost in Church Gresley in 1991. A reasonable Labour result bearing in mind what was a fairly obvious squeeze. The boundary commission places Hilton in Derbyshire Dales constituency (which the northern and most rural part fits well - it used to be a separate ward and was represented by a cheery local farmer and before that, incongruously, by a Labour-inclined vicar who was removed when his colours became obvious). Apparently the Group leader was one of the two defeated Tories And the successful Tory, Sundip Meghani, had previously been a Labour parliamentary candidate and councillor. |
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Post by dizz on Jun 16, 2023 6:50:56 GMT
NORTH LANARKSHIRE, Bellshill - Lab gain from SNP Lab 1416 SNP 740 C 233 British Unionist 108 Alba 103 Grn 43 LD 30 Scottish Family Party 28 Freedom Alliance 7 UKIP 5 - that's a Labour win on first preferences. Just a by election but if it was the scheduled election then Lab would most likely take 3 of the 4 seats here if they balanced votes etc. Also, always great to see the SNP’s running buddies the Greens completely flop. |
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Post by andrewp on Jun 16, 2023 7:08:24 GMT
For those that like percentages
North Lanarkshire ( with changes from 2022j
Lab 52.2 (+13.4)
SNP 27.3 (-13.5)
Con 8.6 (-5)
BU 4 (new)
Alba 3.8 (+1.6)
Green 1.6 (new)
LD 1.1 (new)
SFP 1 (new)
FA 0.3 (new)
UKIP 0.2 ( new)
Plymouth ( changes from 2023)
Lab 58.8 (-0.1)
Con 20.6 (-1)
Green 9.6 (-2.1)
LD 3.9 (-1.5)
Ind 3.4 (new)
Heritage 2.6 (new)
TUSC 1.1 (-1.3)
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Post by andrewp on Jun 16, 2023 7:12:32 GMT
Percentages continued
South Derbyshire
LD 38.9 (+19.4 from 2021 BE, from nowhere in 2019 )
Con 38.7( -18.3 from 2021, -15.9 from 2019)
Lab 22.4 (+3.3 from 2021, -5.4 from 2019)
Sunderland- with changes from 2022
Lab 43.6 (-2.1)
LD 43 (+4.8)
Con 5.2 (-6.6)
REFUk 4.3 (new)
Green 3.9 (-0.5)
Surrey Heath- with changes from 2019 and 2021
LD 60.5% (+11.5 from 2019, +13.1 from 2021 BE)
Con 39.5% (+10.6 from 2019, -9 from 2021 BE)
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Jun 16, 2023 7:13:02 GMT
NORTH LANARKSHIRE, Bellshill - Lab gain from SNP Lab 1416 SNP 740 C 233 British Unionist 108 Alba 103 Grn 43 LD 30 Scottish Family Party 28 Freedom Alliance 7 UKIP 5 - that's a Labour win on first preferences. Just a by election but if it was the scheduled election then Lab would most likely take 3 of the 4 seats here if they balanced votes etc. Also, always great to see the SNP’s running buddies the Greens completely flop. I think that given recent Scottish transfer patterns the most plausible way that Labour don't win three out of four on those numbers is that they only have two candidates. |
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