Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2023 8:40:09 GMT
Interesting what you say about Priti Patel DOTW. We have a Ugandan Asian friend locally and although she is quite right-wing & has definitely voted Conservative many times she really intensely dislikes Priti Patel. I don't think she will vote Conservative next time, not that it matters much in our constituency which will be an easy LD hold. Might Sunak sidelining Priti Patel from the cabinet help Tories with those sorts of voters? Then again, Braverman is like Patel on steroids. I've met Priti Patel.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,274
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 27, 2023 10:44:06 GMT
Thanks for your insights, mattbewilson . We may get some sense of how Labour is doing in London with the Hackney mayoral by-election. Not a huge amount of Muslims resident in Hackney, so I don't think there will be any significant impact on the result. Though any electoral damage to Labour from recent events (and yes, we maybe shouldn't *over*state it given what national polls are saying) would likely not be just confined to Muslims but also mostly white "trendy" anti-war types, who are both likely to be a non-negligible element in Hackney and naturally receptive to a Green message (more so than some socially conservative Muslims, indeed) That said, I still expect a Labour hold in a couple of weeks time.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2023 10:56:50 GMT
Not a huge amount of Muslims resident in Hackney, so I don't think there will be any significant impact on the result. Though any electoral damage to Labour from recent events (and yes, we maybe shouldn't *over*state it given what national polls are saying) would likely not be just confined to Muslims but also mostly white "trendy" anti-war types, who are both likely to be a non-negligible element in Hackney and naturally receptive to a Green message (more so than some socially conservative Muslims, indeed) That said, I still expect a Labour hold in a couple of weeks time. It's a tall order for the Greens to win, given that they've won 2 (1998), 1 (2006) and 2 (2022) seats in Hackney. I think they could get within 10%.
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Oct 27, 2023 18:40:38 GMT
Not a huge amount of Muslims resident in Hackney, so I don't think there will be any significant impact on the result. Though any electoral damage to Labour from recent events (and yes, we maybe shouldn't *over*state it given what national polls are saying) would likely not be just confined to Muslims but also mostly white "trendy" anti-war types, who are both likely to be a non-negligible element in Hackney and naturally receptive to a Green message (more so than some socially conservative Muslims, indeed) That said, I still expect a Labour hold in a couple of weeks time. But most of the genuine hippie anti war types have been gentrified out of Hackney! In any case, you'd need about 40-50 percent of the electorate of Hackney to change their vote to see a discernible effect.
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Post by batman on Oct 27, 2023 19:22:38 GMT
Interesting what you say about Priti Patel DOTW. We have a Ugandan Asian friend locally and although she is quite right-wing & has definitely voted Conservative many times she really intensely dislikes Priti Patel. I don't think she will vote Conservative next time, not that it matters much in our constituency which will be an easy LD hold. Might Sunak sidelining Priti Patel from the cabinet help Tories with those sorts of voters? Then again, Braverman is like Patel on steroids. I've met Priti Patel. definite No to that one.
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Post by carolus on Mar 28, 2024 10:54:42 GMT
Appreciate we've only seen seven of the fourteen SOPNs so far, but there aren't many constituency candidates, are there? Con, Green, Lab, LD, Reform UK everywhere, and otherwise just a couple of Independents and a TUSC. Where have they all gone?
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Post by greatkingrat on Mar 28, 2024 11:16:45 GMT
Appreciate we've only seen seven of the fourteen SOPNs so far, but there aren't many constituency candidates, are there? Con, Green, Lab, LD, Reform UK everywhere, and otherwise just a couple of Independents and a TUSC. Where have they all gone? That's normal though. Last time out, no constituency had more than six candidates. The minor parties tend to concentrate on the list.
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Post by carolus on Mar 28, 2024 11:36:27 GMT
Appreciate we've only seen seven of the fourteen SOPNs so far, but there aren't many constituency candidates, are there? Con, Green, Lab, LD, Reform UK everywhere, and otherwise just a couple of Independents and a TUSC. Where have they all gone? That's normal though. Last time out, no constituency had more than six candidates. The minor parties tend to concentrate on the list. Ah yes, should have looked more closely at the results tables to see many of the parties only stood on list.
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Adam
Non-Aligned
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Post by Adam on Mar 28, 2024 11:54:31 GMT
Presenting a list makes sense for a minor party as the deposit is £5000 to cover all London whereas, at £1000 a constituency, that would only cover 5 of the 14.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,593
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Post by Chris from Brum on May 2, 2024 6:54:30 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 2, 2024 8:29:44 GMT
A question for our London correspondents. Are you getting any sense of any minor parties gaining any traction, or is it likely to be a fairly straightforward outcome?
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Post by Peter Wilkinson on May 2, 2024 16:41:47 GMT
A note for andrewteale - unless I've missed something, you haven't even mentioned the constituency ballots for the London Assembly, which determine 14 of its 25 members. I can understand why these probably don't merit much attention in a discussion covering all today's elections, seeing that the winner of a constituency ballot, no matter by what margin, is counted towards their party's seat entitlement as determined by its list vote - except in the somewhat unusual circumstance where the number of constituencies won by a party exceeds the number of seats the party would otherwise be entitled to.* However, it does deserve a mention - Londoners like me had three ballots to cast today rather than two; under usual circumstances, each candidate elected from a constituency is elected instead of a candidate from their party's list; and under unusual circumstances, they may even instead displace a candidate from another party's list. *I cannot quite make out whether this happened for the Conservatives in 2004 - I think not, but it certainly came close to doing so - but otherwise it is yet to occur in a London Assembly election. But it has happened fairly often in similar elections to other bodies.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 2, 2024 16:44:25 GMT
Also implied that the Conservatives had controlled Wandsworth council since 1974 rather than 1978
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Post by johnloony on May 2, 2024 17:18:16 GMT
A question for our London correspondents. Are you getting any sense of any minor parties gaining any traction, or is it likely to be a fairly straightforward outcome? I’m not allowed to say anything because I’ve been watching the postal votes being processed for the last two weeks. Edit: now that polls have closed: The latter. Tally of postal votes in Croydon from the Mayoral election suggest all the minor party candidates clustered fairly close together, with no outstandingly large proportions. Something like LD > Green > Reform > AWP > BrF > Campbell > SDP > Ghulati > Binface > Michli > Rose
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,900
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Post by Harry Hayfield on May 4, 2024 9:23:53 GMT
London Elects is reporting that the Assembly count has started in the Ealing and Hillngdon constituency as well as the London North East constituency and is cracking on pace with half the mayoral vote already counted in 6 constituencies
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,900
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Post by Harry Hayfield on May 4, 2024 10:01:00 GMT
Now up to nine constituencies half way through the Mayoral vote count and four constituencies starting on that count
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,900
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Post by Harry Hayfield on May 4, 2024 11:06:31 GMT
Live stream of constituency declarations now on YouTube London Elects channel
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,900
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Post by Harry Hayfield on May 4, 2024 11:21:33 GMT
Merton and Wandsworth Mayor Declaration: Con 50097, Lab 84725 (Merton voted Labour in the Assembly in 2021)
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on May 4, 2024 11:24:46 GMT
Merton and Wandsworth Mayor Declaration: Con 50097, Lab 84725 (Merton voted Labour in the Assembly in 2021) Good news for Sadiq. I think the Tories would need a strong performance in Wandsworth to win.
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,900
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Post by Harry Hayfield on May 4, 2024 11:26:37 GMT
Greenwich and Lewisham Mayor Declaration: Con 36822, Lab 83792 (Greenwich voted Labour in the Assembly in 2021)
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