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Post by timrollpickering on Apr 14, 2013 23:57:22 GMT
Total (63): 22DUP, 18SF, 10 UUP, 8SDLP, 5APNI. Enjoyable exercise, thanks to piperdave for doing the map. Well done, for an encore fancy a bash at calculating the starting numbers for the Seanad? And on these figures the DUP would be able to run a Presidential candidate and SF wouldn't have to hunt around independents. Mind you I dread to think how local government and Presidential nominations would be aligned! |
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Post by irish observer on Apr 17, 2013 23:30:42 GMT
Well done, for an encore fancy a bash at calculating the starting numbers for the Seanad? And on these figures the DUP would be able to run a Presidential candidate and SF wouldn't have to hunt around independents. Mind you I dread to think how local government and Presidential nominations would be aligned! This year to the disquiet of many involved in politics, including myself, Phil Hogan the Environment Minister enacted the "putting people first" reforms for the local government in 2014. This will see a significant reduction in the numbers of Councillors and the boundary commission will report in May. Based on the criteria I did an exercise for the six counties. The terms of reference are 1 Cllr for 4,830 people. In addition each council will have a minimum number of 18 members and a maximum number of 40 with the exception of Cork County and Dublin City as they both significantly exceed 350,000 and are allocated 55 and 63 seats respectively. Cork County and Dublin have populations of 399,802 and 527,612 per the 2011 Census. Derry County, using piperdave's figures, should have 51 seats but this is rounded off to 40. Tyrone County should have 37 seats. Fermanagh County should get 15 seats but gains 3 to meet the minimum 18 seat requirement like several other counties such as Carlow, Cavan, Monaghan, Longford, Leitrim, Westmeath etc. Armagh County should get 41 seats but this is rounded off to 40. Down County should get 82 seats in this exercise. Interestingly her population of 396,384 is very similar to that of Cork County and as a result I would argue that Down should be a special case also and receive the same number of seats; 55. I apply the same rationale to Antrim County as Antrim's population of 394,756 is also very close to that of Cork and allocate her 1 seat less at 54. Belfast is the most complicated. On paper the city warrants 69 but applying the Dublin and Cork criteria I allocate a reduced 45 seats to Belfast. So 3 additional special cases arising from the local government reform proposals but in my view justified. I will attempt to do an electoral analysis when I have time in the next few days. |
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Post by irish observer on Apr 19, 2013 22:42:45 GMT
Derry County Council (40): 10 SDLP, 13 SF, 8 DUP, 4 UUP, 1 APNI, 2 IND, 1 TUV, 1 PBP. A Nationalist majority council. The People Before Profit votes, a SWP front, are supporters of Eamonn McCann and are from Derry City and would have 0.56q. Transfers from Republican dissidents would decide whether SDLP gain an additional seat here or whether PBP can secure one. For the moment I stand by the prediction as all other quotas are quite robust.
Tyrone County Council (37): 5 SDLP, 15 SF, 7 DUP, 6 UUP, 1 TUV, 3 IND. A Nationalist majority council. All 3 Independents would also be of Nationalist hues, 2 from the West Tyrone constituency and 1 from the present Dungannon council area.
Fermanagh County Council (18): 2 SDLP, 7 SF, 3 DUP, 5 UUP, 1 IND. This is a barely Nationalist council. 9 Nationalists versus 8 Unionists and the Independent is an Independent Nationalist, essentially the votes of the former SF cllrs who quit the party and ran Independent in 2011.
Armagh County Council (40): 7 SDLP, 14 SF, 8 DUP, 8 UUP, 1 APNI, 2 IND. This becomes a slightly Nationalist council and the Independent vote comes from the Newry area so is essentially Independent Nationalist. The destination of the last seat is between Alliance and the TUV, I give it to Alliance as they are more transfer friendly.
Down County Council (55): 9 SDLP, 6 SF, 18 DUP, 9 UUP, 7 APNI, 2 GRN, 1 UKIP, 3 IND. The only council where the SDLP would have more seats than SF. 2 of the Independents would be Independent Unionists from the North Down area. They could form part of a grand Unionist coalition led by the DUP to exclude Alliance but more than likely Alliance would be brought into a coalition arrangement if one occurred.
Antrim County Council (54): 5 SDLP, 6 SF, 22 DUP, 10 UUP, 6 APNI, 2 TUV, 3 IND. The most Unionist council. Of the Independents there should be at least 1 Independent Nationalist and 1 Independent Unionist from the North Antrim area.
Belfast City Council (45): 6 SDLP, 15 SF, 11 DUP, 4 UUP, 6 APNI, 1 PUP, 1 EIRIGI, 1 GRN. Alliance and the Green Party would hold the balance of power here. This analysis gives 22 Nationalists and 16 Unionists. 6 Alliance and 1 Green would decide how the positions would fall.
Totals
Derry County Council (40): 10 SDLP, 13 SF, 8 DUP, 4 UUP, 1 APNI, 1 TUV, 2 IND.
Tyrone County Council (37): 5 SDLP, 15 SF, 7 DUP, 6 UUP, 1 TUV, 3 IND.
Fermanagh County Council (18): 2 SDLP, 7 SF, 3 DUP, 5 UUP, 1 IND.
Armagh County Council (40): 7 SDLP, 14 SF, 8 DUP, 8 UUP, 1 APNI, 2 IND.
Down County Council (55): 9 SDLP, 6 SF, 18 DUP, 9 UUP, 7 APNI, 2 GRN, 1 UKIP, 3 IND.
Antrim County Council (54): 5 SDLP, 6 SF, 22 DUP, 10 UUP, 6 APNI, 2 TUV, 3 IND.
Belfast City Council (45): 6 SDLP, 15 SF, 11 DUP, 4 UUP, 6 APNI, 1 PUP, 1 EIRIGI, 1GRN.
(289): 44 SDLP, 76 SF, 77 DUP, 46 UUP, 21 APNI, 4 TUV, 3 GRN, 1 UKIP, 1 PUP, 1 EIRIGI, 1 PBP, 14 IND.
I would not attempt to draw boundaries here and obviously there are qualifications about this analysis.
Regarding the Seanad, Fine Gael and Labour intend to hold a referendum to abolish it later this year. If passed it would remain in existence until the next general/seanad election and then fall into abeyance.
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Post by robert on Apr 29, 2014 11:25:40 GMT
irish observer
Your East Antrim prediction is a joke frankly - the DUP's 3rd candidate would easily beat Alliance's 2nd. The DUP would start in a far better position and have significant transfers to draw on - please note in particular that "independent" candidates are often nothing of the sort.
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colm
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Post by colm on Jun 1, 2018 23:53:06 GMT
If Northern Ireland were to send representatives to the dail then the constituencies would have to be much more disciplined in terms of variance per person per td. The dail has a td for every 30,000 people. The most recent census gave NI a population of 1,810,853 people. This would mean Northern Ireland would be entitled to 60 representatives. The dail elects members in 3,4 and 5 seat constituencies,meaning the smallest constituency has about 85-90,000 people. Since the county of Fermanagh has only 60,000 people it has to be twinned with a substantial amount of South Tyrone at minimum to be able to form a 3 seat constituency. Interestingly it could also form a 3 seat constituency if it were to be joined with county Leitrim, but one would assume that the 6 counties would be kept together where possible to help reflect and maintain the unique balance of Northern Ireland's identity. Fermanagh with South Tyrone is the only mandatory decision that has to be made. With Belfast in county Antrim (mostly)and county Down then you must consider how working with Belfast as a "county" itself may affect things or if you should just adopt a county approach and put everything north of the river Lagan in Antrim and everything south of the Lagan in Down.
The rest of Tyrone would form a 5 seat constituency. Armagh being on the verge of 6 seats would perhaps need a small bit of Down. It probably would consist of a geographically larger more rural south Armagh 3 seat constituency with a more heavily populated urban 3 seat constituency in north Armagh (think north Kildare). County Londonderry would have to decide whether to go with a tight 3 seater strictly in Derry city only with an accompanying 5 seat constituency for the rest of the county, or more likely a 4 seater based on the city and greater Derry area and 4 seat constituency for the rest of the county.
Down and Antrim would as I said above depend on how you treat Belfast with as we have seen with the boundary review in NI the decision having knock on effects in the rest of the surrounding area
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Post by Deleted on Jun 2, 2018 8:00:34 GMT
This is a very impressive idea and analysis. Well done!
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Post by islington on Jun 2, 2018 14:04:27 GMT
This is off-topic, I know, but related -
About a year ago I carried out the reverse operation (South went North) - that is, suppose the Republic rejoined the UK. How many seats would it get, based on the same rules as the current Westminster review, and what might they look like?
Using the Republic's electorate as reported at the General Election in March 2016, which I felt was reasonably close to the equivalent effective date for the UK (1 Dec 2015), I calculated that the Republic would be entitled to 44 MPs. I duly parcelled them out, using EDs as my basic building blocks, and if anyone would be interested I'll try to find my notes and post the proposed seats here.
It's interesting that on this basis, the membership of the House would be 644, which is not so very far from the number of 658 that applied for most of the period that the whole of Ireland was represented in the UK Parliament.
(I should add that this is a recreational exercise only. I do not entertain any serious agenda of bringing the Republic back into the UK.)
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 2, 2018 14:28:27 GMT
I've recently been working out what seats might look like if Stormont was elected on the same basis as it was prior to Direct Rule - that is 52 FPTP seats. Similarly, I'd be happy to post that if there's any interest.
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Post by islington on Jun 2, 2018 14:41:08 GMT
I've recently been working out what seats might look like if Stormont was elected on the same basis as it was prior to Direct Rule - that is 52 FPTP seats. Similarly, I'd be happy to post that if there's any interest. Yes please.
Would you be able to allot a whole number of seats to each of the 11 districts, or would that result in too much variation of electorate?
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Post by Deleted on Jun 2, 2018 20:46:53 GMT
I've recently been working out what seats might look like if Stormont was elected on the same basis as it was prior to Direct Rule - that is 52 FPTP seats. Similarly, I'd be happy to post that if there's any interest. Yes, yes please. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 2, 2018 20:47:51 GMT
This is off-topic, I know, but related - About a year ago I carried out the reverse operation (South went North) - that is, suppose the Republic rejoined the UK. How many seats would it get, based on the same rules as the current Westminster review, and what might they look like? Using the Republic's electorate as reported at the General Election in March 2016, which I felt was reasonably close to the equivalent effective date for the UK (1 Dec 2015), I calculated that the Republic would be entitled to 44 MPs. I duly parcelled them out, using EDs as my basic building blocks, and if anyone would be interested I'll try to find my notes and post the proposed seats here. It's interesting that on this basis, the membership of the House would be 644, which is not so very far from the number of 658 that applied for most of the period that the whole of Ireland was represented in the UK Parliament. (I should add that this is a recreational exercise only. I do not entertain any serious agenda of bringing the Republic back into the UK.) Yes, please. I'm actually somehow surprised at the figure of 44. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 2, 2018 22:40:24 GMT
I've recently been working out what seats might look like if Stormont was elected on the same basis as it was prior to Direct Rule - that is 52 FPTP seats. Similarly, I'd be happy to post that if there's any interest. Yes please. Would you be able to allot a whole number of seats to each of the 11 districts, or would that result in too much variation of electorate?
Not all of them. Using a 10% tolerance (5% is way too fiddly), Mid-Ulster, Belfast, Lisburn and the three Antrim authorities can all receive an integer number of seats. Theoretically it's possible in most of the others, but practically it's just not worth it and a few do have to be paired. |
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colm
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Post by colm on Jun 3, 2018 0:04:05 GMT
I've recently been working out what seats might look like if Stormont was elected on the same basis as it was prior to Direct Rule - that is 52 FPTP seats. Similarly, I'd be happy to post that if there's any interest. Yes please.
Would you be able to allot a whole number of seats to each of the 11 districts, or would that result in too much variation of electorate?
Obviously population and demographic shifts have happened since the old stormont seats were last used in the early seventies, but during the period they were used many seats were uncontested as there was no chance of a chellenger realistically winning. If you check out any site witht the results listed you will notice nearly all the seats constantly returned the same result for 50 years. |
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colm
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Post by colm on Jun 3, 2018 0:08:34 GMT
This is off-topic, I know, but related - About a year ago I carried out the reverse operation (South went North) - that is, suppose the Republic rejoined the UK. How many seats would it get, based on the same rules as the current Westminster review, and what might they look like? Using the Republic's electorate as reported at the General Election in March 2016, which I felt was reasonably close to the equivalent effective date for the UK (1 Dec 2015), I calculated that the Republic would be entitled to 44 MPs. I duly parcelled them out, using EDs as my basic building blocks, and if anyone would be interested I'll try to find my notes and post the proposed seats here. It's interesting that on this basis, the membership of the House would be 644, which is not so very far from the number of 658 that applied for most of the period that the whole of Ireland was represented in the UK Parliament. (I should add that this is a recreational exercise only. I do not entertain any serious agenda of bringing the Republic back into the UK.) I think in this hypothetical situation about 50 sets for the Republic sounds about right, 44 just feels a bit "low" when you compare us to Scotland. Scotland with 5.3 million has 59 seats, with our 4.8 million that gives us an entitlement to 53.9 seats. I feel 50-55 would be more appropriate for us in this scenario. This is not meant as a criticism and looking forward to seeing your work. |
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Post by uhurasmazda on Jun 3, 2018 0:44:31 GMT
I did a version of a continuing NI Parliament a few months ago, using Boundary Assistant and with a 10% tolerance. I'm broadly happy with the resultant map, although there were a few different options for Belfast which all had big problems with them. It's not quite true to the history, as I haven't made any conscious attempts at gerrymandering. Modelling a straight UUP-Nationalist fight, I predicted that the UUP would still have a semi-permanent majority, though.  |
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Post by islington on Jun 3, 2018 8:29:02 GMT
This is off-topic, I know, but related - About a year ago I carried out the reverse operation (South went North) - that is, suppose the Republic rejoined the UK. How many seats would it get, based on the same rules as the current Westminster review, and what might they look like? Using the Republic's electorate as reported at the General Election in March 2016, which I felt was reasonably close to the equivalent effective date for the UK (1 Dec 2015), I calculated that the Republic would be entitled to 44 MPs. I duly parcelled them out, using EDs as my basic building blocks, and if anyone would be interested I'll try to find my notes and post the proposed seats here. It's interesting that on this basis, the membership of the House would be 644, which is not so very far from the number of 658 that applied for most of the period that the whole of Ireland was represented in the UK Parliament. (I should add that this is a recreational exercise only. I do not entertain any serious agenda of bringing the Republic back into the UK.) I think in this hypothetical situation about 50 sets for the Republic sounds about right, 44 just feels a bit "low" when you compare us to Scotland. Scotland with 5.3 million has 59 seats, with our 4.8 million that gives us an entitlement to 53.9 seats. I feel 50-55 would be more appropriate for us in this scenario. This is not meant as a criticism and looking forward to seeing your work. Just on the overall numbers, here's how I got to 44.
There was a general election in the Republic in February 2016, which is very close to Dec 2015, which was when the UK electoral numbers were set for the purpose of the current review.
The overall electorate for the Republic, at that election, was officially given as 3,305,110. Dividing this by the UK quota of 74,769 gives an entitlement of 44.20 = 44 seats. Add in Northern Ireland's 17 seats and you get 61 for Ireland as a whole, which doesn't seem totally unreasonable. It compares with Scotland's 53 seats under the current review.
In allocating the 44 seats, I tried to apply the rules of the current review as closely as I could, in particular I applied a tolerance of +/- 5%. However, I could not find a detailed local breakdown of the electorate below constituency level, whereas the Irish census presents population data right down to ED level so I used that instead.
If you did a review based on a 650-seat House, the Republic would probably get about 48 seats, plus 18 from NI to give 66 (-ish). Scotland would probably stand to lose a couple of seats from its present allowance and end up with about 57.
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colm
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Post by colm on Jun 3, 2018 12:20:57 GMT
The 44 seats makes much more sense if you are going on the boundary review process ongoing. That makes more sense,thanks for the reply and explanation.
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Post by therealriga on Jun 3, 2018 22:17:55 GMT
I've recently been working out what seats might look like if Stormont was elected on the same basis as it was prior to Direct Rule - that is 52 FPTP seats. Similarly, I'd be happy to post that if there's any interest. Yes, do so. I went a bit further and calculated 52-seat Stormont boundaries from dissolution to present day on a roughly 10-yearly basis as I have a map of the 1970s ward boundaries. Unfortunately, I couldn't do it on a consistent basis. I had to use the 1971 and 1981 census figures for the first two reviews and for the 1990s had to use 1993 local government electorates from this Hansard link api.parliament.uk/historic-hansard/written-answers/1993/apr/29/electoral-areasBelfast consistently fell going from 16 at the real Stormont to 14 in the 1970s, 10 in the 1980s, 9 in the 1990s and 7.5 in the 2000s. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 3, 2018 22:53:07 GMT
I did a version of a continuing NI Parliament a few months ago, using Boundary Assistant and with a 10% tolerance. I'm broadly happy with the resultant map, although there were a few different options for Belfast which all had big problems with them. It's not quite true to the history, as I haven't made any conscious attempts at gerrymandering. Modelling a straight UUP-Nationalist fight, I predicted that the UUP would still have a semi-permanent majority, though. View AttachmentI am extremely tempted to colour this in...  |
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Post by uhurasmazda on Jun 4, 2018 1:21:05 GMT
I did a version of a continuing NI Parliament a few months ago, using Boundary Assistant and with a 10% tolerance. I'm broadly happy with the resultant map, although there were a few different options for Belfast which all had big problems with them. It's not quite true to the history, as I haven't made any conscious attempts at gerrymandering. Modelling a straight UUP-Nationalist fight, I predicted that the UUP would still have a semi-permanent majority, though. I am extremely tempted to colour this in... Feel free! |
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