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Post by Deleted on Jun 4, 2018 14:01:51 GMT
I did a version of a continuing NI Parliament a few months ago, using Boundary Assistant and with a 10% tolerance. I'm broadly happy with the resultant map, although there were a few different options for Belfast which all had big problems with them. It's not quite true to the history, as I haven't made any conscious attempts at gerrymandering. Modelling a straight UUP-Nationalist fight, I predicted that the UUP would still have a semi-permanent majority, though. Can I ask what you used to make the map? |
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Post by therealriga on Jun 4, 2018 14:13:49 GMT
I did a version of a continuing NI Parliament a few months ago It's not quite true to the history, as I haven't made any conscious attempts at gerrymandering. Modelling a straight UUP-Nationalist fight, I predicted that the UUP would still have a semi-permanent majority, though. Actually it *is* true to history. It's a misconception that Stormont was gerrymandered. It wasn't. Nationalists made up around 25% of the electorate and regularly won around a dozen of the 48 non-University seats. The gerrymandering took place at local level. At regional level it didn't occur, not because the boundary commissioners were nicer, but simply because, as you point out, the UUP had a semi-permanent majority anyway. In that situation it wasn't necessary to fiddle with the boundaries. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 4, 2018 14:40:45 GMT
Well, not entirely. Let's remember the history here. At first Stormont was elected by STV in multi-member constituencies. The Unionists hated that and got rid of it at the first opportunity, replacing it with FPTP in single member seats. That was partly because of the Unionist determination to make Stormont as close as possible to a 'mini-me' UK Parliament.
There was no Boundary Commission; instead the NI government proposed the constituencies in a schedule to the Bill bringing in FPTP. Because of the distribution of communities it would have been quite possible to gerrymander them to give a massive Unionist majority, but given there weren't enough nationalists to win anyway, there was no point and it might have triggered the clause in the Government of Ireland Act 1920 that prevented Stormont from enacting blatantly discriminatory laws.
That being said, there are areas where the arrangements are peculiarly favourable to Unionists: Fermanagh, a nationalist majority county, was given two narrowly Unionist seats and one massively safe Nationalist one. Some have speculated (including Nicholas Whyte) that the Dock constituency in Belfast was a failed attempt to create a Unionist seat.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 4, 2018 16:24:58 GMT
Well, not entirely. Let's remember the history here. At first Stormont was elected by STV in multi-member constituencies. The Unionists hated that and got rid of it at the first opportunity, replacing it with FPTP in single member seats. That was partly because of the Unionist determination to make Stormont as close as possible to a 'mini-me' UK Parliament. There was no Boundary Commission; instead the NI government proposed the constituencies in a schedule to the Bill bringing in FPTP. Because of the distribution of communities it would have been quite possible to gerrymander them to give a massive Unionist majority, but given there weren't enough nationalists to win anyway, there was no point and it might have triggered the clause in the Government of Ireland Act 1920 that prevented Stormont from enacting blatantly discriminatory laws. That being said, there are areas where the arrangements are peculiarly favourable to Unionists: Fermanagh, a nationalist majority county, was given two narrowly Unionist seats and one massively safe Nationalist one. Some have speculated (including Nicholas Whyte) that the Dock constituency in Belfast was a failed attempt to create a Unionist seat. Wrong way round. Whyte speculated that Dock was a failed attempt to create a Nationalist seat. The switch from STV was definitely done with partisan intent, but the targets weren't the Nationalists, if was the Labour Party (and to a lesser extent the Liberal Party.) |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 4, 2018 16:37:29 GMT
The switch from STV was definitely done with partisan intent, but the targets weren't the Nationalists, if was the Labour Party (and to a lesser extent the Liberal Party.) Partly, but also Independent Unionists. They might be a credible electoral challenge even in a sectarian society. |
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Post by therealriga on Jun 4, 2018 17:06:14 GMT
That being said, there are areas where the arrangements are peculiarly favourable to Unionists: Fermanagh, a nationalist majority county, was given two narrowly Unionist seats and one massively safe Nationalist one. Some have speculated (including Nicholas Whyte) that the Dock constituency in Belfast was a failed attempt to create a Unionist seat. The nationalist majority in Fermanagh was a very slim one. About 52/53% of the electorate. It's not unusual in such circumstances for the minority side to win more seats under FPTP. Even in the first STV elections to the council in 1973 the council ended up with a 10/10 split and was even deadlocked as late as 2001. So the evidence for gerrymandering there isn't conclusive. Based on newspaper reports from the time, some of the wilder gerrymandering ideas by local UUP branches were shot down. One was a suggestion to have a non-contiguous 2-member Londonderry boroughs seat including Derry, Limavady and Coleraine, which would have elected 2 unionists. The abandoning of STV was absolutely to prevent fragmentation of the UUP vote to the NILP, independent unionists and farmers' groups, one of which won a seat in 1925. |
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Post by uhurasmazda on Jun 4, 2018 19:36:58 GMT
I did a version of a continuing NI Parliament a few months ago, using Boundary Assistant and with a 10% tolerance. I'm broadly happy with the resultant map, although there were a few different options for Belfast which all had big problems with them. It's not quite true to the history, as I haven't made any conscious attempts at gerrymandering. Modelling a straight UUP-Nationalist fight, I predicted that the UUP would still have a semi-permanent majority, though. Can I ask what you used to make the map? Screenshots of Boundary Assistant, pasted into Inkscape and then traced over. I then copy-pasted the boundaries into Paint for minor tidying. |
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Post by afleitch on Jun 4, 2018 19:57:01 GMT
I did a Stormont continuity map a while ago. No seats crossed the old six county boundaries but Belfast was extended to cover it's current boundaries.
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