Prediction Competition - April 2023

[robbienicoll]

There are only 3 by-elections to be held during April.

- 2 by-elections on 20 April
- 1 on 27 April

1 is for a unitary authority which was last contested in 2021
1 is for a London borough council last contested in 2022
1 is for a Welsh authority last contested in 2022

Labour defend all 3 seats, 1 following the death of the previous councillor and 2 a resignation

There is a full slate of 3 candidates apiece for the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats, 2 Greens and 1 apiece for TUSC and Plaid Cymru together with 1 Independent contesting 1 election – a total of 14 candidates for 3 seats.

Predictions on this thread at 9.00am on the day of the election.

[batman]

ENFIELD, Bullsmoor : Lab 50 C 28 Green 12 LD 8 TUSC 2

WARRINGTON, Latchford W. : Lab 51 C 32 LD 11 Ind 6

[Robert Waller]

ENFIELD, Bullsmoor : Lab 56 C 25 Green 9 LD 9 TUSC 1

WARRINGTON, Latchford W. : Lab 47 C 37 LD 6 Ind 10

[yellowperil]

This is going to be one weird month for this competition. Just three elections, all Labour defences which one might assume in the present context are very safe. Somebody is presumably going to claim the win for the month and chalk up 10 points on the form chart but it's hardly fair, is it? It won't be like coming out top in a month with lots of really tricky challenges to get right (or not).Don't know what the answer is, though.

[batman]

all is fair in love & war.

[johnloony]

ENFIELD: Lab 52 Con 31 Grn 9 LD 7 TUSC 1
WARRINGTON: Lab 48 Con 36 LD 9 Ind 7

[peterl]

ENFIELD: Lab 57 Con 25 Grn 11 LD 6 TUSC 1
WARRINGTON: Lab 51 Con 30 LD 11 Ind 8

[kevinf]

Enfield
Lab 50, Con 23, Green 15, LibDem 10.5, Tusc 1.5
Warrington
Lab 43, Con 31, LibDem 14, Ind 12

[yellowperil]

Apr 19, 2023 9:11:58 GMT batman said:

all is fair in love & war.

which of those do you think covers the prediction competition?

[andrewp]

Enfield. Bullsmoor. Lab 48, Con 36, Green 9, LD 6, TUsC 1
Warrington, Latchford West Lab 51 Con 30, Ind 10, LD 9

[batman]

Apr 19, 2023 17:58:34 GMT yellowperil said:

Apr 19, 2023 9:11:58 GMT batman said:

all is fair in love & war.

which of those do you think covers the prediction competition?

OK maybe more ward than war.

[Tony Otim]

Enfield: Lab 52.9; Con 25.4; LD 10.6; Grn 9.3; TUSC 1.8
Warrington: Lab 46.3; Bowles 26.6; Con 15.1; LD 12.0

[corradino]

Enfield, Bullsmoor: Lab 50, Con 30, Green, 11, LibDem 7, TUSC 2.

Warrington, Latchfors W: Lab 53,Con 28, LibDem 9, Independent 10.

[yellowperil]

Enfield, Bullsmoor: Con 26, Lab 54, LD 10, GP 9, TUSC 1.
Warrington, Latchford W: Con 30, Lab 50, LD 11, Ind 9.

[casualobserver]

ENFIELD: Lab 55 Con 26 Grn 10 LD 7 TUSC 2
WARRINGTON: Lab 47 Con 36 LD 11 Ind 6

[rightleaning]

Enfield. Bullsmoor:- Lab 44, Con 36, Gn 12, LD 7, TUSC 1
Warrington, Latchford West:- Lab 46, Con 31, Ind 12, LD 11

[iainbhx]

ENFIELD LBC, Bullsmoor: Lab 55, Con 27, Grn 10, LDm 6, TUSC 2

WARRINGTON UA, Latchford West: Lab 50, Con 32, LDm 10, Ind 8

[Richard Cromwell]

Latchford West, Warrington

LAB	56%
CON	26%
LDEM	12%
IND	6%

Bullsmoor, Enfield

LAB	60%
CON	26%
GRN	8%
LDEM	5%
TUSC	1%

[robbienicoll]

13 entries to open the miniaturised month. All on time and correct.

Bullsmoor, Enfield: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 8% (Right Leaning) to 34% (Richard Cromwell).

Latchford West, Warrington: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 10% (Robert Waller) to 30% (Richard Cromwell).

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1g4LqVtoQ0u39mP9y1YeajVlKDxrrczvVibL3YUREOzY/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[Robert Waller]

Congrats to rightleaning and andrewp for getting their noses in front this week!