The Mongul invasion of Japan was successful

[slon]

I guess Cortez and Pizarro would have done their deeds before any Asian interlopers arrived down the West coast of North America.
But how would their empire building have gone with these new rivals?

[Crimson King]

would the colonies have rebelled, faced with a threat from (their) west?

[slon]

Mar 23, 2023 23:29:48 GMT Crimson King said:

would the colonies have rebelled, faced with a threat from (their) west?

I am still checking for elephant traps

[slon]

Mar 23, 2023 23:29:48 GMT Crimson King said:

would the colonies have rebelled, faced with a threat from (their) west?

I don't think they would have rebelled any more than they were already wont to

More about supply lines and logistics.

On the west coast of the Americas would have been difficult for the Spanish to deal with a rival empire based in the Pacific 

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

A more successful Mongol empire would have had far reaching consequences. I suspect it would have set the West back, likely delaying or stopping the creation of Empires by European Nations.

[Crimson King]

Mar 25, 2023 15:34:03 GMT slon said:

Mar 23, 2023 23:29:48 GMT Crimson King said:

would the colonies have rebelled, faced with a threat from (their) west?

I don't think they would have rebelled any more than they were already wont to

More about supply lines and logistics.

On the west coast of the Americas would have been difficult for the Spanish to deal with a rival empire based in the Pacific 

sorry, I was unclear. The colonies did rebel. I wondered if facing a threat from the pacific coast they would be more inclined to continue as British colonies and be part of a larger more poweful entity, and what the consequences of that would be (possibly also applies to french colonies in the north and spanish in the south)

[Adam in Stroud]

Mar 25, 2023 19:39:51 GMT Crimson King said:

Mar 25, 2023 15:34:03 GMT slon said:

I don't think they would have rebelled any more than they were already wont to

More about supply lines and logistics.

On the west coast of the Americas would have been difficult for the Spanish to deal with a rival empire based in the Pacific 

sorry, I was unclear. The colonies did rebel. I wondered if facing a threat from the pacific coast they would be more inclined to continue as British colonies and be part of a larger more poweful entity, and what the consequences of that would be (possibly also applies to french colonies in the north and spanish in the south)

This exchange does rather illustrate one of the problems with alternative history.  In this case, irrespective the the Mongol thing, it wasn't inevitable that the 13 colonies would rebel (its quite easy to imagine the issue being handled better by a more astute British government) nor that, having rebelled, they would win the war.

Thus we not only have to think through the probably consequences of the first "alternative event" but then factor in all the subsequent plausible deviations, whether or not they are made more likely by the original one.

On the whole I think the main value in the concept is to look at just the original event in order to challenge our sense of the inevitability of the actual timeline seen in hindsight, and to appreciate the stakes at the time.

[slon]

Mar 25, 2023 19:39:51 GMT Crimson King said:

Mar 25, 2023 15:34:03 GMT slon said:

I don't think they would have rebelled any more than they were already wont to

More about supply lines and logistics.

On the west coast of the Americas would have been difficult for the Spanish to deal with a rival empire based in the Pacific 

sorry, I was unclear. The colonies did rebel. I wondered if facing a threat from the pacific coast they would be more inclined to continue as British colonies and be part of a larger more poweful entity, and what the consequences of that would be (possibly also applies to french colonies in the north and spanish in the south)

Ah ... see what you mean.
I didn't consider the east coast in this fantasy, just west coast.
The proposition is that Sino Japanese history is different, didn't become isolated but instead took to exploration and empire building six hundred years ago. An obvious route for Japanese explorers would have been North to the Kamchatka peninsula, East along the Aleutian island chain then south along the Western seaboard of North America. Arriving in California around the same time as the first Spanish explorers.
Now the Spanish did not attempt to set up permanent settlements on the west coast until much later ..... what if the Japanese had beat them to it?

There would have been no impact on European settlements near the eastern seaboard at the time. But it could have made a dramatic difference when we get beyond 1800

[No Offence Alan]

Mar 26, 2023 11:44:17 GMT slon said:

Mar 25, 2023 19:39:51 GMT Crimson King said:

sorry, I was unclear. The colonies did rebel. I wondered if facing a threat from the pacific coast they would be more inclined to continue as British colonies and be part of a larger more poweful entity, and what the consequences of that would be (possibly also applies to french colonies in the north and spanish in the south)

Ah ... see what you mean.
I didn't consider the east coast in this fantasy, just west coast.
The proposition is that Sino Japanese history is different, didn't become isolated but instead took to exploration and empire building six hundred years ago. An obvious route for Japanese explorers would have been North to the Kamchatka peninsula, East along the Aleutian island chain then south along the Western seaboard of North America. Arriving in California around the same time as the first Spanish explorers.
Now the Spanish did not attempt to set up permanent settlements on the west coast until much later ..... what if the Japanese had beat them to it?

There would have been no impact on European settlements near the eastern seaboard at the time. But it could have made a dramatic difference when we get beyond 1800

You might have ended up with, for example, someone of Japanese descent being President of Peru.

[slon]

This was the situation in north America in around 1820 .... leading up to the Mexican American war of the 1840s


Following that war the US gained Texas, new Mexico and California 
Now it there had been another player in the game controlling the west coast then what?

[finsobruce]

Mar 26, 2023 14:10:22 GMT slon said:

This was the situation in north America in around 1820 .... leading up to the Mexican American war of the 1840s


Following that war the US gained Texas, new Mexico and California 
Now it there had been another player in the game controlling the west coast then what?

Did the Indepedents split from the Independents? Two groups even then

[Sibboleth]

Well those were the claimed boundaries anyway. Many of the people actually living in the relevant places at the time would have had other ideas.

[Crimson King]

Mar 26, 2023 11:44:17 GMT slon said:

Mar 25, 2023 19:39:51 GMT Crimson King said:

sorry, I was unclear. The colonies did rebel. I wondered if facing a threat from the pacific coast they would be more inclined to continue as British colonies and be part of a larger more poweful entity, and what the consequences of that would be (possibly also applies to french colonies in the north and spanish in the south)

Ah ... see what you mean.
I didn't consider the east coast in this fantasy, just west coast.
The proposition is that Sino Japanese history is different, didn't become isolated but instead took to exploration and empire building six hundred years ago. An obvious route for Japanese explorers would have been North to the Kamchatka peninsula, East along the Aleutian island chain then south along the Western seaboard of North America. Arriving in California around the same time as the first Spanish explorers.
Now the Spanish did not attempt to set up permanent settlements on the west coast until much later ..... what if the Japanese had beat them to it?

There would have been no impact on European settlements near the eastern seaboard at the time. But it could have made a dramatic difference when we get beyond 1800

Just musing a little further, I wonder if the natural barrier of the Rockies, and the pretty parren country for some distance the other side would have concentrated Mongol/Japnese colonisation to the Pacific coast. It is one thing to push across empty lands to reach another coast, as the European colonists did, but to push across the desert just to establish a frontier in the middle of sod all with a power that had a wealthy and well supplied eastern seaboard and all the fertile grasslands up next would be less attractive. From the British point of view why cross the desert and mountain areas to still fall short of the coast. I could imagine a relatively uncontested border roughly east of the Dakotas, Colorado and Kansas with all the fun going on to the north and south

[slon]

Mar 26, 2023 18:12:55 GMT Crimson King said:

Mar 26, 2023 11:44:17 GMT slon said:

Ah ... see what you mean.
I didn't consider the east coast in this fantasy, just west coast.
The proposition is that Sino Japanese history is different, didn't become isolated but instead took to exploration and empire building six hundred years ago. An obvious route for Japanese explorers would have been North to the Kamchatka peninsula, East along the Aleutian island chain then south along the Western seaboard of North America. Arriving in California around the same time as the first Spanish explorers.
Now the Spanish did not attempt to set up permanent settlements on the west coast until much later ..... what if the Japanese had beat them to it?

There would have been no impact on European settlements near the eastern seaboard at the time. But it could have made a dramatic difference when we get beyond 1800

Just musing a little further, I wonder if the natural barrier of the Rockies, and the pretty parren country for some distance the other side would have concentrated Mongol/Japnese colonisation to the Pacific coast. It is one thing to push across empty lands to reach another coast, as the European colonists did, but to push across the desert just to establish a frontier in the middle of sod all with a power that had a wealthy and well supplied eastern seaboard and all the fertile grasslands up next would be less attractive. From the British point of view why cross the desert and mountain areas to still fall short of the coast. I could imagine a relatively uncontested border roughly east of the Dakotas, Colorado and Kansas with all the fun going on to the north and south

Yes, well done, you are entering into the spirit of the thing.

I think central America would be a step too far for the Sino Japanese empire, difficult country, too densely populated, and the Spanish had got there first. Also there is the problem of the Baja peninsula, it is a natural barrier for coastal traffic
So say the Sino Japanese settled the western coastal areas from Alaska to Tijuana but did not move east any further than the Rockies.

The Spanish could limp on trying to carve out an empire in central and south west America, the British and French settled east of the Mississippi Missouri but with little incentive to move west, possibly south into Texas but perhaps no further.

Then gold is discovered in California......

[slon]

On the other hand Australia ..... Sino Japanese arrive on the north and east coast, not the easiest places to find anchorage and safety

What would they have done?

[slon]

A very strange brew in North America.

There would have been three distinct sets of new arrivals.
The Sino Japanese on the West seaboard,
The Spanish in Mexico, central and South America
The English and French in the east

There would also be at least two sets of indigenous peoples. Semi nomadic and few in number in the north, quite sophisticated, settled and numerous in Mexico and the south.

We can imagine the Sino Japanese colonising the West coast and all but driving the indigenous people out, these colonies would have been organised hierarchies based on the Chinese/Japanese model
The Spanish colonies would have been a mess of uprising with insufficient colonists and too many disgruntled indigenous inhabitants
The English/French colonies would probably have driven the indigenous people out, also rebelled against rule from the home nations so becoming a much more unstable and uncontrolled nation

So what happens when a whole lot of gold is discovered in a sort of no mans land exactly where these three semi nations meet?

[Deleted]

My goodness, things are going full ‘Civilization’ here.

Effectively you’re proposing a large Pacific-spanning Sino-Japanese Empire. Well that might mean no successful Opium Wars for Britain, if indeed such an empire hadn’t itself already moved into India - and the Malayan peninsula in order to secure shipping routes. Hong Kong wouldn’t have been ceded. Hawaii presumably would be taken by this empire.
Pressures to overthrow the Imperial system would perhaps in this case be less, so no Boxer Rebellion, no vacuum or involvement in a devastating WW2 (as we know it) to give the Communists their chance for ultimate success.
If the British Empire was so comparatively reduced, the British imperial forces obviously wouldn’t have been as large, including the Navy, and the economic base reduced. Successful prosecution of wars with Continental rivals would therefore be that much harder, though would that mean we are more reluctant to go to war in such cases anyway? Would Wilhelm II have less of an inferiority complex vis a vis the British? There wouldn’t have been the Raj for a Hitler figure to point to as a successful Aryan colony either.

[slon]

It's the events from about 1600 to 1850 which I think would be the most interesting, which nations would end up where?
Also the different types of empire and colonisation would make a difference. History seems to show that colonisation only works if the country being colonised is sparsely populated, and that the coloniser has a whole lot of people willing to up sticks and move to the new land.

That was the case for English and French in America, but would Japanese in mass have been willing to do the same?