The Mongul invasion of Japan was successful

[slon]

Round about 1280

Japan becomes part of the empire including China and all of Asia 

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

I assume you mean Mongol invasion.

I'm not sure even without the adverse weather than ensured it failed, it would have succeeded. 

But if it did it would mean Japan would be seen as a natural part of the Chinese Empire space. 

If it was not lost subsequently, a big if, it would also probably mean no Nazi ally in ww2, the USA entering ww2 later than they did. 

No cheap reliable cars in the 1970s and electronic thereafter. 

[Pete Whitehead]

Did you mean the Mongol empire presumably?

[slon]

As a start there is the black death .... I don't think it ever reached Japan
At the same time it was wreaking devastation in China then being spread across Asia into into Europe

Now if Japan had been part of the Mongol empire

[slon]

Mar 16, 2023 16:23:51 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Did you mean the Mongol empire presumably?

Yes title has been changed

[finsobruce]

Mar 16, 2023 16:23:05 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

I assume you mean Mongol invasion.

I'm not sure even without the adverse weather than ensured it failed, it would have succeeded. 

But if it did it would mean Japan would be seen as a natural part of the Chinese Empire space. 

If it was not lost subsequently, a big if, it would also probably mean no Nazi ally in ww2, the USA entering ww2 later than they did. 

No cheap reliable cars in the 1970s and electronic thereafter. 

Honda one hand I agree with you Sony, Honda the other...

[slon]

Now if the black death had visited Japan in the 1300s it is likely that the economic and social development would have been very different with changes in the social and religious hierarchies similar to those in Europe.

In the 1400s the dominance of the Mongol empire would have diminished, but the ties to the near neighbours of China and Korea may have remained, and possibly with that a different attitude towards foreign nationals.
The periods of isolation would not have occurred.
It is possible Japan would have become a world power in the 1700s at the same level of the European powers

[nobodyimportant]

I think a key question is what happens to the Kamakura Shogunate, and the institutions of shoguns and emperors in general, in this scenario. And not whether (they would) or when (not actually really important unless it happened very fast or led to the Mongol empire surviving longer than it did somehow) the Mongols left, but how. What influences would they have left on Japanese society, and would the previous power structures have reestablished? Or would a warlord have overthrown the mongols and seized power for themselves?

In our timeline, the cost of protecting Japan from the threat of Mongol invasion was a major cause of the civil war that led to the downfall of the Kamakura Shogunate and the start of the Ashikaga Shogunate. And it was the crisis that stemmed from the resulting power vacuum and conflict between Ashikaga loyalists and emperor loyalists that was probably by far the biggest influence (directly or indirectly) on every event in Japanese history since. This obviously wouldn't have played out like that, although again depending on how the Mongols left a similar power vacuum could have emerged at that point, which ironically could have sent Japan down a nearly identical path to the one it took in reality.

[slon]

Mar 17, 2023 12:57:45 GMT nobodyimportant said:

I think a key question is what happens to the Kamakura Shogunate, and the institutions of shoguns and emperors in general, in this scenario. And not whether (they would) or when (not actually really important unless it happened very fast or led to the Mongol empire surviving longer than it did somehow) the Mongols left, but how. What influences would they have left on Japanese society, and would the previous power structures have reestablished? Or would a warlord have overthrown the mongols and seized power for themselves?

In our timeline, the cost of protecting Japan from the threat of Mongol invasion was a major cause of the civil war that led to the downfall of the Kamakura Shogunate and the start of the Ashikaga Shogunate. And it was the crisis that stemmed from the resulting power vacuum and conflict between Ashikaga loyalists and emperor loyalists that was probably by far the biggest influence (directly or indirectly) on every event in Japanese history since. This obviously wouldn't have played out like that, although again depending on how the Mongols left a similar power vacuum could have emerged at that point, which ironically could have sent Japan down a nearly identical path to the one it took in reality.

The actual military outcome is one thing .... it is likely that some warlords would see which way the wind was blowing and side with the Kahn's, the takeover could have been quite swift, the Mongol army was pretty much invincible anyway.

It is more the next hundred years and what changes to Japanese society would have happened with exposure to plague and the presence of foreigners

[slon]

It might be interesting at this point to think about the different way politics and society evolved in Europe and in the far East.

They both had high levels of culture and technology, organised religion mostly pacifist, also constant warfare between regions and various ruling families.
What seemed to happen in Europe was much more mixing within the ruling dynasties with intermarriage being common.

[slon]

Closed societies don't change much, the elites may fight and the ruling dynasties may change but the general structure of the societies will remain the same.
Until some situation occurs which forces a fundamental change

My proposition is that the Mongol invasion, exposure to foreign influence, and the bubonic plague could have altered the structure of Japanese society in the 14th century, perhaps in a way akin to things in Europe.
By this I mean the ruling elites in China, Korea, and Japan would have had more interaction and possibly intermarriage changing the political dynamic for the whole of east Asia for the following centuries

[slon]

So where could this lead?
Say we had an outward looking Japanese nation the year 1500, and a nation with much greater ties to it's near neighbours.
The obvious next step would have been exploration and conquest of new lands.
To the North was Sakhalin and the more or less uninhabited Kamchatka peninsula. To the West and South the Malaysian peninsula, the Philippines, and beyond, again scarcely populated, Australia and New Zealand.

The West coast of America and Canada would also have been available. Once the Russians had been denied access to Kamchatka then the route to Alaska had to belong to the Japanese.

[finsobruce]

Mar 21, 2023 15:28:50 GMT slon said:

So where could this lead?
Say we had an outward looking Japanese nation the year 1500, and a nation with much greater ties to it's near neighbours.
The obvious next step would have been exploration and conquest of new lands.
To the North was Sakhalin and the more or less uninhabited Kamchatka peninsula. To the West and South the Malaysian peninsula, the Philippines, and beyond, again scarcely populated, Australia and New Zealand.

The West coast of America and Canada would also have been available. Once the Russians had been denied access to Kamchatka then the route to Alaska had to belong to the Japanese.

Sunderland, but it would take 484 years.

[slon]

Mar 21, 2023 15:36:16 GMT finsobruce said:

Mar 21, 2023 15:28:50 GMT slon said:

So where could this lead?
Say we had an outward looking Japanese nation the year 1500, and a nation with much greater ties to it's near neighbours.
The obvious next step would have been exploration and conquest of new lands.
To the North was Sakhalin and the more or less uninhabited Kamchatka peninsula. To the West and South the Malaysian peninsula, the Philippines, and beyond, again scarcely populated, Australia and New Zealand.

The West coast of America and Canada would also have been available. Once the Russians had been denied access to Kamchatka then the route to Alaska had to belong to the Japanese.

Sunderland, but it would take 484 years.

Let's not rush it .... I still have not got the the frontier war of the early 1800s between the European east and Asian West of America 

[Pete Whitehead]

Mar 21, 2023 17:18:30 GMT slon said:

Mar 21, 2023 15:36:16 GMT finsobruce said:

Sunderland, but it would take 484 years.

Let's not rush it .... I still have not got the the frontier war of the early 1800s between the European east and Asian West of America 

Please let it include Andrew Jackson being defeated at the battle of New Orleans

[finsobruce]

Mar 21, 2023 18:13:01 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Mar 21, 2023 17:18:30 GMT slon said:

Let's not rush it .... I still have not got the the frontier war of the early 1800s between the European east and Asian West of America 

Please let it include Andrew Jackson being defeated at the battle of New Orleans

[slon]

Then there is the Panama canal.
If the extended Sino Japan 'empire' gained purchase in west coast America then the canal would never have been built

The effect in world trade terms and in the economic status of Argentina would have been massive

[No Offence Alan]

Mar 22, 2023 17:28:08 GMT slon said:

Then there is the Suez canal.
If the extended Sino Japan 'empire' gained purchase in west coast America then the canal would never have been built

The effect in world trade terms and in the economic status of Argentina would have been massive

Do you mean the Suez Canal or the Panama Canal?

[slon]

Mar 22, 2023 23:26:43 GMT No Offence Alan said:

Mar 22, 2023 17:28:08 GMT slon said:

Then there is the Suez canal.
If the extended Sino Japan 'empire' gained purchase in west coast America then the canal would never have been built

The effect in world trade terms and in the economic status of Argentina would have been massive

Do you mean the Suez Canal or the Panama Canal?

Yes, quite right, the Panama canal

Although, with the Sino Japanese empire extending into Malaysia, engulfing Australia, end encroaching on India, the Suez canal may not have been built either

[finsobruce]

Mar 23, 2023 9:07:34 GMT slon said:

Mar 22, 2023 23:26:43 GMT No Offence Alan said:

Do you mean the Suez Canal or the Panama Canal?

Yes, quite right, the Panama canal

Although, with the Sino Japanese empire extending into Malaysia, engulfing Australia, end encroaching on India, the Suez canal may not have been built either

How about the Manchester Ship canal?