Local Council by-elections 30th March 2023

[timrollpickering]

Heath, Barking and Dagenham

Lib Dem 26
Green 41
Conservative 408
Labour 777

Rejected 7

Total 1259
Turnout 21.8%

[Davıd Boothroyd]

BARKING AND DAGENHAM Heath

Harriet Spoor (Labour Party Candidate) 777
Joe Lynch (Local Conservatives) 408
Kim Arrowsmith (Green Party) 41 3.27%
Zygimantas Adomavicius (Liberal Democrats) 26

Lab 62.1%
C 32.6%
GP 3.3%
L Dem 2.1%

[maxque]

Mar 30, 2023 22:48:32 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

BARKING AND DAGENHAM Heath

Harriet Spoor (Labour Party Candidate) 777
Joe Lynch (Local Conservatives) 408
Kim Arrowsmith (Green Party) 41 3.27%
Zygimantas Adomavicius (Liberal Democrats) 26

Lab 62.1%
C 32.6%
GP 3.3%
L Dem 2.1%

Lab -11.7, Con +6.4

[ricmk]

And Labour win this week's totaliser:

Lab 1419
Con 1088
LD 868
PC 833
Green 41
Ref 37
Loony 22

[jamesdoyle]

GWBWI

Lab +65
PC +55
LDm +21
Con -69

ASV

Lab +1.31
PC +0.9
LDm +0.4
Con -1.1

[andrewp]

Those Lab and Con scores don’t feel like they quite reflect the performances to me this week .

The 3 Labour share changes were +1.4%, -5% and -11.7% giving an average of -5.1%
The 3 Con share changes were -13.9%, +2.4% and +6.4% giving an average of -1.4%

I know there is more to the model than that and Lab held the seat they were defending and the Tories didn’t but I would put the 2 performances closer together.

[jamesdoyle]

Mar 31, 2023 6:57:39 GMT andrewp said:

Those Lab and Con scores don’t feel like they quite reflect the performances to me this week .

The 3 Labour share changes were +1.4%, -5% and -11.7% giving an average of -5.1%
The 3 Con share changes were -13.9%, +2.4% and +6.4% giving an average of -1.4%

I know there is more to the model than that and Lab held the seat they were defending and the Tories didn’t but I would put the 2 performances closer together.

That'll teach me to post immediately after getting up. Was about to say you'd hit the nail on the head with the comment that Lab won and Con lost making the difference, when I realised I'd quoted the Lab and LDm figures the wrong way around! I should have spotted that the LDm gain should mean a decent score (+63) for them. Lab get a small score (+23) for B&D, both because they lost vote share and because of their huge dominance on the council. It's still the Cons losing the seat that makes the big difference, but it's not quite so pronounced.

Actual figures:
LDm +65
PC +55
Lab +21
Con -69

I shall leave my earlier post untouched as a monument to my sleep-bleared stupidity. Thanks for making me take another look.

[The Bishop]

Did you ever do last week's scores (it was only one relevant contest admittedly)?

[jamesdoyle]

Mar 31, 2023 9:25:31 GMT The Bishop said:

Did you ever do last week's scores (it was only one relevant contest admittedly)?

Thanks for reminding me. Was rather busy last weekend with my father-in-law's funeral, so I forgot. Will do those shortly.

[The Bishop]

Mar 6, 2023 12:55:08 GMT timrollpickering said:

I am the agent for Joe Lynch, the Conservative candidate, for Heath in Barking & Dagenham so I won't be posting on that one here

Any comments now? Was the result roughly what you expected??

[ricmk]

Mar 31, 2023 11:55:15 GMT The Bishop said:

Mar 6, 2023 12:55:08 GMT timrollpickering said:

I am the agent for Joe Lynch, the Conservative candidate, for Heath in Barking & Dagenham so I won't be posting on that one here

Any comments now? Was the result roughly what you expected??

I saw that a lot of recent leaflets on electionleaflets.org/ were Tory ones from this by-election.  You went big on opposing ULEZ.  Is this result maybe a sign that it's not the magic bullet the London Conservative party are hoping for?

[andrewp]

Mar 31, 2023 16:35:59 GMT ricmk said:

Mar 31, 2023 11:55:15 GMT The Bishop said:

Any comments now? Was the result roughly what you expected??

I saw that a lot of recent leaflets on electionleaflets.org/ were Tory ones from this by-election.  You went big on opposing ULEZ.  Is this result maybe a sign that it's not the magic bullet the London Conservative party are hoping for?

Not a magic bullet but presumably a factor in a reasonable swing to the Tories.

[timrollpickering]

Mar 31, 2023 11:55:15 GMT The Bishop said:

Mar 6, 2023 12:55:08 GMT timrollpickering said:

I am the agent for Joe Lynch, the Conservative candidate, for Heath in Barking & Dagenham so I won't be posting on that one here

Any comments now? Was the result roughly what you expected??

I was expecting to be exhausted by the end of it and that expectation has been met.

I'll see about posting more substantially later.

[finsobruce]

Mar 31, 2023 16:35:59 GMT ricmk said:

Mar 31, 2023 11:55:15 GMT The Bishop said:

Any comments now? Was the result roughly what you expected??

I saw that a lot of recent leaflets on electionleaflets.org/ were Tory ones from this by-election.  You went big on opposing ULEZ.  Is this result maybe a sign that it's not the magic bullet the London Conservative party are hoping for?

I don't think you can draw that conclusion. The Tories got a swing in a Barking ward, which is pretty unusual in itself. Whether it is down to anti ULEZ is impossible to prove, and we will need more London results to see if there is a trend, but it could well be a factor.

[mrtoad]

Analysis of the by-election in Barking & Dagenham here www.onlondon.co.uk/barking-dagenham-routine-labour-by-election-win-despite-swing-to-conservatives/