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Post by John Chanin on Mar 10, 2023 6:57:46 GMT
That's in ponteland north where the tories managed 88% of the vote in 2017 in a 3 way battle with labour and the Lib Dems. Admittedly that ward has a long rural tail going out past belsay and up to capheaton and takes in a small but exceptionally rich (even for Darras) bit of Darras Hall - tasteless footballers wifes stuff like www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/127877078#/?channel=RES_BUY for example - but still... This must be one of the least promising 10,000 plus population towns for labour in the north of England. It has very little of any constituent elements of the labour coalition. It's not diverse. It's not trendy. It has very little deprivation. I don't know Ponteland - is it a bit like Prestbury or Mottram St Andrew near Manchester? What's interesting is that the town/village seems to be split throughout between different electoral wards - North, East, South and West, all with big tails extending in their respective directions. Not seen this before. It's a really weird gerrymander. Anyone know why this small town has been split 4 ways and linked with a huge rural area stretching double digit kilometers in all directions? |
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YL
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Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Mar 10, 2023 7:39:14 GMT
I'm not coming from a political perspective - just where I'd prefer. I value a big house, real green space, peace and quiet, and open spaces, but at the same time good public transport (as a non driver) and at least decent local amenities. You do of course understand these are mutually exclusive? It depends how strict you are being about some of the criteria. I would say some places in Fulwood, Sheffield, qualify, for example, and noting aargauer's username I suspect that it is far from unusual in Switzerland. I'm a little surprised Gosforth is being written off. I've never been there, but my impression of the place is that it's quite similar to Fulwood, though without quite the "you can walk into the National Park" selling point. |
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Post by andrewp on Mar 10, 2023 7:43:59 GMT
I don't know Ponteland - is it a bit like Prestbury or Mottram St Andrew near Manchester? What's interesting is that the town/village seems to be split throughout between different electoral wards - North, East, South and West, all with big tails extending in their respective directions. Not seen this before. It's a really weird gerrymander. Anyone know why this small town has been split 4 ways and linked with a huge rural area stretching double digit kilometers in all directions? I don’t know why, but Tiverton is similar, 4 wards each taking a part of the town and spreading quite a long way into the countryside in all directions. |
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wysall
Forum Regular
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Post by wysall on Mar 10, 2023 13:39:58 GMT
I can understand Jesmond--it's a losing battle--but why not Gosforth? Of course the Coast is increasingly 'trendy', with its 'artisan shops and hip, happening vibe', and I wouldn't be surprised if Tynemouth emerges from the next Labour government a Green target with them on 20-25% as generational turnover continues. Only a matter of time until they get on the council. Once the local Tories are buried I think it's going to be a rebirth of the inland-coast divide but with the Greens taking their place. edit: Maybe that should be a thread, 'Long-term Green potential'. I'm not coming from a political perspective - just where I'd prefer. I value a big house, real green space, peace and quiet, and open spaces, but at the same time good public transport (as a non driver) and at least decent local amenities. Didn't think you were, my fault for mentioning politics; by 'a losing battle' I meant the peace and quiet! I would have thought Gosforth (south of the Ouseburn at least) fits all those requirements. |
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jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on Mar 10, 2023 19:35:47 GMT
Not seen this before. It's a really weird gerrymander. Anyone know why this small town has been split 4 ways and linked with a huge rural area stretching double digit kilometers in all directions? I would assume the commission decided it was the least worst option (and tbf, the small villages around Ponteland are all fairly posh Newcastle environ so it’s not completely awful). The issue is that Ponteland itself cannot sustain 3 wards, but can just about sustain 4 with the villages included. You could do a ward based on the villages (minus Heddon), but it’s a fairly incoherent leftovers ward. Thr villages could not be paired with any of the wards to the south, and to the west or north would have knock on effects so were presumably too much hassle. The commission presumably thought Ponteland at least had good connections with the villages so carved it up accordingly. I hope (but do not expect) they can at least partially sort it out in the forthcoming boundary review. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 10, 2023 21:49:13 GMT
Its not like its a new arrangement anyway so I don't know who would have been behind this 'gerrymander'. The old Castle Morpeth district wards were drawn along very similar lines (except that Heddon was a separate ward)
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Mar 10, 2023 22:02:35 GMT
You do of course understand these are mutually exclusive? It depends how strict you are being about some of the criteria. I would say some places in Fulwood, Sheffield, qualify, for example, and noting aargauer 's username I suspect that it is far from unusual in Switzerland. I'm a little surprised Gosforth is being written off. I've never been there, but my impression of the place is that it's quite similar to Fulwood, though without quite the "you can walk into the National Park" selling point. Totley is the Sheffield suburb I'd say comes closest to the description. |
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 10, 2023 22:05:25 GMT
It depends how strict you are being about some of the criteria. I would say some places in Fulwood, Sheffield, qualify, for example, and noting aargauer 's username I suspect that it is far from unusual in Switzerland. I'm a little surprised Gosforth is being written off. I've never been there, but my impression of the place is that it's quite similar to Fulwood, though without quite the "you can walk into the National Park" selling point. Totley is the Sheffield suburb I'd say comes closest to the description. It should be shown the Dore. |
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mrtoad
Labour
He is a toad. Who knows what a toad thinks?
Posts: 424
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Post by mrtoad on Mar 11, 2023 11:58:27 GMT
In relation to the talk of all the constituencies the Tories could lose, were there any in the '97 election that stood out as surprise holds under the circumstances? Some of these already mentioned but my short list of these: Lichfield - a small-looking swing from 1992 and I think on the numbers the most vulnerable Lab-facing seat they held. The swing was affected by the Mid-Staffs by-election, in that in 1992 Sylvia Heal was the Labour incumbent and Mid Staffs 1990 was an exceptionally strong Lab result. Aldridge-Brownhills - Lab in 1974 but as it turned out the extraneous factors (Powell in 1974, Richard Shepherd being a good guy but a strong anti-EU politician in 1997) worked the other way, and the demographics had shifted. Mid Dorset and North Poole - this was the big surprise for me, as it looked like a sitting duck for the Lib Dems. All the council wards had been voting LD but it might have been harder than it looked on the (local election influenced) notional figures in 1997. Came through in 2001. North Norfolk - rather similar to MDNP in this, except that it was a Con hold because it wasn't clear which of the other two parties was main challenger - Lab given history of the seat, Lib Dem on recent campaigning effort. Was clear in 2001 and Norman Lamb won (though David Prior did well in making it so close). Suffolk Coastal and SW Bedfordshire were regarded as plausible Lab gains in 2001 but didn't happen and I wasn't surprised they stayed narrowly Con in 1997. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 11, 2023 14:56:10 GMT
Incidentally if the extreme end of polling (ie Lab +25-ish) comes to pass then SW Beds would be very vulnerable again. Labour will need to squeeze the LD vote in Leighton Buzzard to nothing though
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