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Post by batman on Mar 8, 2023 15:13:18 GMT
exactly this Pete.
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Post by carlton43 on Mar 8, 2023 15:36:37 GMT
Carlton is confusing the mentality of normal votes with those of partisan activists. It logically makes sense for a Conservative activist to prefer Labour to have gained a seat than the Lib Dems, as the former would be removed by the swing back of the pendulum, the latter much harder to shift. If Labour had won Colchester in 1997 for example, the Conservatives would have probably gained it in 2005 and if not then certainly in 2010. As it was they had to wait until 2015. Likewise freom the poing of view of a partisan Labour supporter, it is not good for them for the Lib Dems to win a seat where they have themselves been competetive as their support gets squeezed away to nothing and often their local govenment base is destroyed as well (as in eg Bath, St Albans now). These sort of considerations are not going to carry any weight with the vast majority of normal voters who just have a preference for or against a particular party. Overwhelmingly Labour voters are going to see a Lib Dem MP as preferable to a Conservative one and Conservative voters will see a Lib Dem MP as preferable to a Labour one. Lib Dem voters will be more evenly divided, but in 1997 would have skewed quite heavily in Labour's favour. Not really Pete. I know you are right and in your sterling post you set out so well the essential difference between partisan and ordinary voter. One is looking at the political structure of medium to long term and the other rooted entirely in immediacy and the negativity of voting against 'an evil' rather than for 'a good'. |
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Post by manchesterman on Mar 8, 2023 23:44:02 GMT
Thinking beyond England, a Tory seat that is in the "Rural 75" category that Labour will surely win next time is Ynys Mon!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 9, 2023 0:26:55 GMT
Thinking beyond England, a Tory seat that is in the "Rural 75" category that Labour will surely win next time is Ynys Mon! Well, you're a brave man if you're going to put money on that based on national polling..... |
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Post by aargauer on Mar 9, 2023 21:25:43 GMT
Of course in many "rural" constituencies where a significant chunk, and in some cases a majority, of the population actually live in an urban area or in large towns (my own seat being one of them). To comment on the specific examples in your post - Central Devon has Labour in second and by a decent margin, and there is some Labour strength (and favourable demographics) in some of the towns, but I would only expect it to fall as an outlier in the most extreme best-case scenario for Labour. Suffolk Coastal of course contains Felixstowe and Ipswich suburbs but I would be surprised if Labour are strong enough there to overwhelm the Tory strength elsewhere - some vote splitting between Tories and LDs would definitely be needed. Banbury as currently constructed is a certain no, however Banbury & Chipping Norton will be close in a Tory meltdown scenario. In Bedfordshire, there is no way the Tories don't win North (East) or Mid Beds, but SW Beds should definitely be a Labour target if we're actually winning the election by anything close to what the polls suggest. In Norfolk, I tend to suspect Labour will underperform although a lot depends on how much the Labour organisation and support has actually decayed in places like KL and Great Yarmouth - but I can only really see 4 seats max for Labour there. Rushcliffe will need Labour to hammer the Tories in West Bridgford (not impossible) and keep the margins down in some of the other towns/rural villages - not impossible, but if it happens the Tories are on a hiding to nothing. Most of the rest I would say are fantasy land, and probably to do with people trying to reconcile Labour on 450+ seats whilst the SNP are on 45+ in Scotland, however a couple I will comment on: Skipton does have Labour support, and should probably have more. But Ripon and the rural/small town areas in between should see the Tories home. In Hexham Labour could do well in Hexham, Ponteland and Prudhoe however it's hard to see them winning those towns by a significant margin, and this is a more genuinely rural seat (in that the significant towns are a lower share of the population) than many others you mention. Similarly, Labour will do "well" in Sailsbury, but relative to nearby areas - they might scrape a win in the town but not in the constituency overall Labour doing well in Ponteland??? I don't think so! Unless labour are going to do well in the land of tasteless McMansions in a badly connected and cultureless but very wealthy small town where everyone has a huge drive and an SUV. This is not natural labour country at all. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Mar 9, 2023 21:49:53 GMT
Of course in many "rural" constituencies where a significant chunk, and in some cases a majority, of the population actually live in an urban area or in large towns (my own seat being one of them). To comment on the specific examples in your post - Central Devon has Labour in second and by a decent margin, and there is some Labour strength (and favourable demographics) in some of the towns, but I would only expect it to fall as an outlier in the most extreme best-case scenario for Labour. Suffolk Coastal of course contains Felixstowe and Ipswich suburbs but I would be surprised if Labour are strong enough there to overwhelm the Tory strength elsewhere - some vote splitting between Tories and LDs would definitely be needed. Banbury as currently constructed is a certain no, however Banbury & Chipping Norton will be close in a Tory meltdown scenario. In Bedfordshire, there is no way the Tories don't win North (East) or Mid Beds, but SW Beds should definitely be a Labour target if we're actually winning the election by anything close to what the polls suggest. In Norfolk, I tend to suspect Labour will underperform although a lot depends on how much the Labour organisation and support has actually decayed in places like KL and Great Yarmouth - but I can only really see 4 seats max for Labour there. Rushcliffe will need Labour to hammer the Tories in West Bridgford (not impossible) and keep the margins down in some of the other towns/rural villages - not impossible, but if it happens the Tories are on a hiding to nothing. Most of the rest I would say are fantasy land, and probably to do with people trying to reconcile Labour on 450+ seats whilst the SNP are on 45+ in Scotland, however a couple I will comment on: Skipton does have Labour support, and should probably have more. But Ripon and the rural/small town areas in between should see the Tories home. In Hexham Labour could do well in Hexham, Ponteland and Prudhoe however it's hard to see them winning those towns by a significant margin, and this is a more genuinely rural seat (in that the significant towns are a lower share of the population) than many others you mention. Similarly, Labour will do "well" in Sailsbury, but relative to nearby areas - they might scrape a win in the town but not in the constituency overall Labour doing well in Ponteland??? I don't think so! They might do vaguely reasonably in Ponteland proper - the old village parts - especially around Thornhill Road. Darras Hall and the villages? No chance. |
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Post by aargauer on Mar 9, 2023 22:04:08 GMT
Labour doing well in Ponteland??? I don't think so! They might do vaguely reasonably in Ponteland proper - the old village parts - especially around Thornhill Road. Darras Hall and the villages? No chance. That's in ponteland north where the tories managed 88% of the vote in 2017 in a 3 way battle with labour and the Lib Dems. Admittedly that ward has a long rural tail going out past belsay and up to capheaton and takes in a small but exceptionally rich (even for Darras) bit of Darras Hall - tasteless footballers wifes stuff like www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/127877078#/?channel=RES_BUY for example - but still... This must be one of the least promising 10,000 plus population towns for labour in the north of England. It has very little of any constituent elements of the labour coalition. It's not diverse. It's not trendy. It has very little deprivation. Terrible public transport links. |
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Post by where2travel on Mar 9, 2023 22:28:23 GMT
They might do vaguely reasonably in Ponteland proper - the old village parts - especially around Thornhill Road. Darras Hall and the villages? No chance. That's in ponteland north where the tories managed 88% of the vote in 2017 in a 3 way battle with labour and the Lib Dems. Admittedly that ward has a long rural tail going out past belsay and up to capheaton and takes in a small but exceptionally rich (even for Darras) bit of Darras Hall - tasteless footballers wifes stuff like www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/127877078#/?channel=RES_BUY for example - but still... This must be one of the least promising 10,000 plus population towns for labour in the north of England. It has very little of any constituent elements of the labour coalition. It's not diverse. It's not trendy. It has very little deprivation. I don't know Ponteland - is it a bit like Prestbury or Mottram St Andrew near Manchester? What's interesting is that the town/village seems to be split throughout between different electoral wards - North, East, South and West, all with big tails extending in their respective directions. |
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wysall
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Post by wysall on Mar 9, 2023 22:30:56 GMT
I can't think of anywhere north of the Tees more soul-crushing than Darras Hall. A slice of American exurbia in Northumberland. Newbuilds don't even come close: these people have the money to live in non-student Jesmond, Gosforth, High Heaton, or on the Coast and choose not to.
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Post by aargauer on Mar 9, 2023 22:34:14 GMT
That's in ponteland north where the tories managed 88% of the vote in 2017 in a 3 way battle with labour and the Lib Dems. Admittedly that ward has a long rural tail going out past belsay and up to capheaton and takes in a small but exceptionally rich (even for Darras) bit of Darras Hall - tasteless footballers wifes stuff like www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/127877078#/?channel=RES_BUY for example - but still... This must be one of the least promising 10,000 plus population towns for labour in the north of England. It has very little of any constituent elements of the labour coalition. It's not diverse. It's not trendy. It has very little deprivation. I don't know Ponteland - is it a bit like Prestbury or Mottram St Andrew near Manchester? What's interesting is that the town/village seems to be split throughout between different electoral wards - North, East, South and West, all with big tails extending in their respective directions. Yes - it's very much that kind of place. Maybe a bit naffer, and without the train station so you have to drive everywhere. |
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Post by aargauer on Mar 9, 2023 22:39:51 GMT
I can't think of anywhere north of the Tees more soul-crushing than Darras Hall. A slice of American exurbia in Northumberland. Newbuilds don't even come close: these people have the money to live in non-student Jesmond, Gosforth, High Heaton, or on the Coast and choose not to. Theres plenty to crush one's soul in the north east. I don't think anywhere would crush mine as much as Washington. Personally especially as I get older I understand not wanting to live in Jesmond (born and raised) or Gosforth. These days I'd go for Northumberland too - but somewhere like Corbridge. Perhaps the coast would be ok. I briefly lived there about 10 years ago. |
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 9, 2023 22:43:11 GMT
I can't think of anywhere north of the Tees more soul-crushing than Darras Hall. A slice of American exurbia in Northumberland. Newbuilds don't even come close: these people have the money to live in non-student Jesmond, Gosforth, High Heaton, or on the Coast and choose not to. Theres plenty to crush one's soul in the north east. I don't think anywhere would crush mine as much as Washington. Is it Washington that has the illogical street numbering or something similar to confuse posties and others? |
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Post by batman on Mar 9, 2023 22:48:06 GMT
I can't think of anywhere north of the Tees more soul-crushing than Darras Hall. A slice of American exurbia in Northumberland. Newbuilds don't even come close: these people have the money to live in non-student Jesmond, Gosforth, High Heaton, or on the Coast and choose not to. Theres plenty to crush one's soul in the north east. I don't think anywhere would crush mine as much as Washington. Personally especially as I get older I understand not wanting to live in Jesmond (born and raised) or Gosforth. These days I'd go for Northumberland too - but somewhere like Corbridge. Perhaps the coast would be ok. I briefly lived there about 10 years ago. Corbridge looked very nice when I visited it years ago. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Mar 9, 2023 22:49:52 GMT
There does seem to be something about working class estates that led someone to believe that the only people who should know where they are on them is if they live there. I've been fortunate only to have run the board on one such peculiar numbered estate.
Equally there's something about rural villages that decided numbers need no longer exist. Canvassing a street with no numbers is... interesting
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Post by aargauer on Mar 9, 2023 22:51:50 GMT
Theres plenty to crush one's soul in the north east. I don't think anywhere would crush mine as much as Washington. Is it Washington that has the illogical street numbering or something similar to confuse posties and others? Ive never heard that one before! |
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 9, 2023 22:55:52 GMT
Is it Washington that has the illogical street numbering or something similar to confuse posties and others? Ive never heard that one before! A friend of mine was a speech and language therapist in the area and told me once that she always left a lot of time for home visits for this reason. I'll have a look to see if i can find out more. |
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wysall
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Post by wysall on Mar 9, 2023 22:56:54 GMT
I can't think of anywhere north of the Tees more soul-crushing than Darras Hall. A slice of American exurbia in Northumberland. Newbuilds don't even come close: these people have the money to live in non-student Jesmond, Gosforth, High Heaton, or on the Coast and choose not to. Theres plenty to crush one's soul in the north east. I don't think anywhere would crush mine as much as Washington. Personally especially as I get older I understand not wanting to live in Jesmond (born and raised) or Gosforth. These days I'd go for Northumberland too - but somewhere like Corbridge. Perhaps the coast would be ok. I briefly lived there about 10 years ago. I can understand Jesmond--it's a losing battle--but why not Gosforth? Of course the Coast is increasingly 'trendy', with its 'artisan shops and hip, happening vibe', and I wouldn't be surprised if Tynemouth emerges from the next Labour government a Green target with them on 20-25% as generational turnover continues. Only a matter of time until they get on the council. Once the local Tories are buried I think it's going to be a rebirth of the inland-coast divide but with the Greens taking their place. edit: Maybe that should be a thread, 'Long-term Green potential'. |
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Post by aargauer on Mar 9, 2023 23:06:06 GMT
Theres plenty to crush one's soul in the north east. I don't think anywhere would crush mine as much as Washington. Personally especially as I get older I understand not wanting to live in Jesmond (born and raised) or Gosforth. These days I'd go for Northumberland too - but somewhere like Corbridge. Perhaps the coast would be ok. I briefly lived there about 10 years ago. I can understand Jesmond--it's a losing battle--but why not Gosforth? Of course the Coast is increasingly 'trendy', with its 'artisan shops and hip, happening vibe', and I wouldn't be surprised if Tynemouth emerges from the next Labour government a Green target with them on 20-25% as generational turnover continues. Only a matter of time until they get on the council. Once the local Tories are buried I think it's going to be a rebirth of the inland-coast divide but with the Greens taking their place. edit: Maybe that should be a thread, 'Long-term Green potential'. I'm not coming from a political perspective - just where I'd prefer. I value a big house, real green space, peace and quiet, and open spaces, but at the same time good public transport (as a non driver) and at least decent local amenities. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Mar 9, 2023 23:45:43 GMT
I can't think of anywhere north of the Tees more soul-crushing than Darras Hall. A slice of American exurbia in Northumberland. Newbuilds don't even come close: these people have the money to live in non-student Jesmond, Gosforth, High Heaton, or on the Coast and choose not to. Theres plenty to crush one's soul in the north east. I don't think anywhere would crush mine as much as Washington. Personally especially as I get older I understand not wanting to live in Jesmond (born and raised) or Gosforth. These days I'd go for Northumberland too - but somewhere like Corbridge. Perhaps the coast would be ok. I briefly lived there about 10 years ago. If I had to live in the North East, had unlimited budget, and was wanting to settle down, I think Morpeth would probably be my choice. Pleasant market town, quite a few decent pubs, well connected (at least as much as anywhere in the region is). The coast isn't a bad shout, along with Hexham, Berwick, and the nicer bits of Darlo - though none really hit everything I'd want in a place to live. I think I agree on Jesmond and Gosforth - the former especially. It seems to be in a bit of an unhappy medium - a bit too noisy to be somewhere to want to settle in but a bit too quiet to be somewhere you'd want to visit or live it up. I think I've been maybe a dozen times in my life, if that. |
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Post by michaelarden on Mar 10, 2023 0:16:19 GMT
I'm not coming from a political perspective - just where I'd prefer. I value a big house, real green space, peace and quiet, and open spaces, but at the same time good public transport (as a non driver) and at least decent local amenities. You do of course understand these are mutually exclusive? |
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