haroldthepolitician
Labour
'You can be just what you want to be, Just as long as you don't try and compete with me' - Jarvis
Posts: 216 
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Post by haroldthepolitician on Apr 28, 2023 16:14:44 GMT
That’s the least silly looking local elections poll I’ve ever seen. The Reform number is obviously wrong, but otherwise it looks perfectly plausible. I suspect they just didn't factor in the candidates standing; I reckon if you multiplied each value by the percentage of wards each party is standing in and then reweighted it to equal 100 you'd get a more or less accurate figure. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Apr 28, 2023 19:26:55 GMT
That’s the least silly looking local elections poll I’ve ever seen. The Reform number is obviously wrong, but otherwise it looks perfectly plausible. I suspect they just didn't factor in the candidates standing; I reckon if you multiplied each value by the percentage of wards each party is standing in and then reweighted it to equal 100 you'd get a more or less accurate figure. that's a pretty good idea |
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haroldthepolitician
Labour
'You can be just what you want to be, Just as long as you don't try and compete with me' - Jarvis
Posts: 216
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Post by haroldthepolitician on Apr 28, 2023 20:46:41 GMT
This would net you
Labour: 42%
Conservative: 36%
Liberal Democrat: 15%
Green: 5%
Independent: 2%
Reform entirely negligible. (0%)
I would note however; this does not adjust for the fact minor parties will likely run in there strongest wards; hence why Reform, Green and lib dems are probably going to net about 2% more than this.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Apr 28, 2023 22:36:56 GMT
This would net you Labour: 42% Conservative: 36% Liberal Democrat: 15% Green: 5% Independent: 2% Reform entirely negligible. (0%) I would note however; this does not adjust for the fact minor parties will likely run in there strongest wards; hence why Reform, Green and lib dems are probably going to net about 2% more than this. I'm not entirely sure that's true. Mostly I think they run in areas where they have enough activists. Of course there is some overlap but by no means 100% |
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haroldthepolitician
Labour
'You can be just what you want to be, Just as long as you don't try and compete with me' - Jarvis
Posts: 216
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Post by haroldthepolitician on Apr 29, 2023 8:14:27 GMT
This would net you Labour: 42% Conservative: 36% Liberal Democrat: 15% Green: 5% Independent: 2% Reform entirely negligible. (0%) I would note however; this does not adjust for the fact minor parties will likely run in there strongest wards; hence why Reform, Green and lib dems are probably going to net about 2% more than this. I'm not entirely sure that's true. Mostly I think they run in areas where they have enough activists. Of course there is some overlap but by no means 100% Would certainly argue having more activists in an areas both suggests your doing alright to begin with AND that you'll probably have a better campaigning capacity and result. So regardless, they're likely to perform better in these wards than had they ran elsewhere. I know my CLP is rather well split between the places we do well in, with regards to activists. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,009
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 29, 2023 11:23:34 GMT
It appears these local election scores from Omnisis are *the areas that are voting this Thursday* only and not a NEV or whatever. In the actual seats up now in 2019 the Tories led by about 4%, so this is a swing of over 7% since then - *if* that actually happens, over 1000 Tory losses are not just possible but probable.
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Post by stodge on Apr 29, 2023 13:05:07 GMT
Omnisis have done a local election poll. Labour up. Indies down. Everyone else fairly static. Looks at least plausible. Except I don’t think 4% of people will even have a Reform candidate Local Elections Voting Intention: LAB: 37% (+10) CON: 26% (-1) LDM: 17% (=) GRN: 9% (=) IND: 6% (-5) RFM: 4% (+4) Via @omnisis, 27-28 Apr. Changes w/ LE2019. That's not actually what the poll says. The Conservatives are down five not one from 2019 |
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Post by jmagosh on Apr 29, 2023 15:13:35 GMT
The Omnisis poll would be consistent with a ~15 point lead in NEV/PNS, or a 7.5 pt swing since 2019. This would be on par with what Blair achieved in 1996 - they led by around ~15 points in NEV/PNS, and they did this while leading by about ~25 points in the polling, so I'd take with a pinch of salt. A lead of ~10 (a 5 point swing) seems more likely to me.
The YouGov figures implied a similar sort of margin or perhaps a tad lower (a 6-7 pt swing) based on their detailed breakdown. So both of these polls would indicate the 1,000+ Con losses scenario. These polls probably flatter Labour slightly, personally I don't expect Cons to lose 1,000.
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Post by greenchristian on Apr 29, 2023 21:04:31 GMT
This would net you Labour: 42% Conservative: 36% Liberal Democrat: 15% Green: 5% Independent: 2% Reform entirely negligible. (0%) I would note however; this does not adjust for the fact minor parties will likely run in there strongest wards; hence why Reform, Green and lib dems are probably going to net about 2% more than this. Reform don't have enough candidates to plausiblly get 2% nationally. But yes, I'd expect minor parties to do proportionately better than Labour and the Conservatives. It's not necessarily about standing in our best wards (though there is an element of that). It's also that our voters are more likely to actually turn out for local elections. The politically unengaged, who only turn out for general elections, are more likely than the average voter to habitually vote for one of the big two parties. And it's extremely difficult for a pollster to put in a good turnout filter for locals. |
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Post by andrewp on May 3, 2023 13:43:04 GMT
That’s a lot of Others
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,065
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Post by jamie on May 3, 2023 14:18:43 GMT
But still down 2% from 2019, which actually looks reasonable (especially for a local election poll). |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,913
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Post by Tony Otim on May 3, 2023 14:32:06 GMT
But still down 2% from 2019, which actually looks reasonable (especially for a local election poll). I'd expect Reform to be quite a bit down on UKIP/Brexit in 2019 from lack of candidates if nothing else, but all the indy localists etc.. to hold up generally ok, so doesn't seem too far out of reasonable. |
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Post by mattbewilson on May 3, 2023 14:43:04 GMT
Tories seem very low tho
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mrtoad
Labour
He is a toad. Who knows what a toad thinks?
Posts: 424
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Post by mrtoad on May 3, 2023 15:16:45 GMT
I think Labour would certainly settle for that. A 7-point swing since 2019 would be very healthy - national equivalent lead about where it was in 1996.
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Post by batman on May 3, 2023 20:49:49 GMT
These figures aren't projected national vote share, they're for the areas actually voting tomorrow. It would translate into about a 16% Labour lead nationally
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Post by manchesterman on May 3, 2023 21:09:29 GMT
Wouldnt the "others" probably flesh out to something like: Ind 8-9% Reform 3-4%, the rag-tags like TUSC, UKIP et al 1% = 14% ?
I would think possibly Labour and Tory votes may be 1-2% higher and the LD/Green vote is possibly slightly overstated, but I think that is a pretty decent poll overall..
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,039
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Post by Khunanup on May 3, 2023 22:51:08 GMT
You can really tell that you're active in an area where the Conservatives are all but irrelevant... |
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Post by batman on May 4, 2023 3:21:20 GMT
that's not true, most of his canvassing has been in a Conservative-held constituency.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,039
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Post by Khunanup on May 4, 2023 13:37:27 GMT
that's not true, most of his canvassing has been in a Conservative-held constituency. Then he shouldn't be at all surprised. The Tory vote is sharply down pretty much everywhere. |
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Post by mattbewilson on May 4, 2023 14:19:09 GMT
that's not true, most of his canvassing has been in a Conservative-held constituency. Then he shouldn't be at all surprised. The Tory vote is sharply down pretty much everywhere. my personal experience, I can't speak of everywhere, is that the Tory vote is shaky at best. Lots of Tories are very 50/50 maybe more Tory inclined than 6 months ago. However, 23% seems too low to me. It's probably within margin of error tbf |
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