Local election poll.

[CatholicLeft]

[Tony Otim]

Why do they bother, seriously?

[Davıd Boothroyd]

I'm very suspicious because it's very difficult to precisely target only the areas with local elections this year, and this doesn't pick up on the pattern of candidacies and local parties which is actually crucial to working out how individual council wards go.

[CatholicLeft]

I never understand the point of local election polls - too many people pretend to be "certain to vote", independents and local parties are missed. It is daft.

[manchesterman]

Agreed. Do the pollsters really think people, when asked their voting intentions, differentiate in any significant numbers between general VI and VI in their locals?? I highly doubt it!

We all know that LDs and minor parties tend to outperform their national poll ratings [for obvious reasons: "fewer wasted votes in locals", "easier to focus the ground game in key seats" etc etc.

I would be amazed if the total percentage vote for Labour wasnt at least 2-3% lower than that, and the Tories [with I expect a lot of even their core support sitting on their hands for the locals] at least 4-5% lower! Conversely I would expect LD votes to be up 4-5% on national polling and the "others/Inds" up a couple of points too.

[jamie]

If a poll of local elections voting intention looks suspiciously similar to a general election poll, then people have probably just answered the latter.

[mattbewilson]

Lib Dems look impossibly low. I expect there to be losses given how well they did in 2019 but this would mean huge losses to both labour and the Tories

[londonseal80]

Feb 26, 2023 13:20:08 GMT CatholicLeft said:

What about Independents and Residents?

[batman]

Well, yes, indeed. This poll really does look incredibly flawed.

[clyde1998]

Feb 26, 2023 17:47:58 GMT mattbewilson said:

Lib Dems look impossibly low. I expect there to be losses given how well they did in 2019 but this would mean huge losses to both labour and the Tories

They may flatline, as there are places they didn’t break through in 2019 where they might this time due (even if the Tories did especially bad in 2019) as a lot of people wouldn’t’ve voted for them due to Brexit, especially in the ‘soft Leave’ shires. I think the anger with the Conservatives towards the end of the Johnson premiership and into the Truss ‘era’ has been replaced by apathy, so Conservative voters may not vote as opposed to actively voting against them.

Labour should do significantly better than 2019, although I doubt that will see the Lib Dems lose many seats.

[The Bishop]

Mar 2, 2023 21:46:56 GMT batman said:

Well, yes, indeed. This poll really does look incredibly flawed.

Local election polls really are an inexact science to put it mildly.

Just about the sole value of this survey is that it indicates Labour will do well in May and the Tories badly.

[mattbewilson]

Mar 3, 2023 10:04:26 GMT clyde1998 said:

Feb 26, 2023 17:47:58 GMT mattbewilson said:

Lib Dems look impossibly low. I expect there to be losses given how well they did in 2019 but this would mean huge losses to both labour and the Tories

They may flatline, as there are places they didn’t break through in 2019 where they might this time due (even if the Tories did especially bad in 2019) as a lot of people wouldn’t’ve voted for them due to Brexit, especially in the ‘soft Leave’ shires. I think the anger with the Conservatives towards the end of the Johnson premiership and into the Truss ‘era’ has been replaced by apathy, so Conservative voters may not vote as opposed to actively voting against them.

Labour should do significantly better than 2019, although I doubt that will see the Lib Dems lose many seats.

I would be surprised if the Lib Dems held onto all the 700 odd seats they gained 4 years ago but I would be shocked if they lost more than that as this poll suggests

[Khunanup]

Mar 3, 2023 11:28:06 GMT mattbewilson said:

Mar 3, 2023 10:04:26 GMT clyde1998 said:

They may flatline, as there are places they didn’t break through in 2019 where they might this time due (even if the Tories did especially bad in 2019) as a lot of people wouldn’t’ve voted for them due to Brexit, especially in the ‘soft Leave’ shires. I think the anger with the Conservatives towards the end of the Johnson premiership and into the Truss ‘era’ has been replaced by apathy, so Conservative voters may not vote as opposed to actively voting against them.

Labour should do significantly better than 2019, although I doubt that will see the Lib Dems lose many seats.

I would be surprised if the Lib Dems held onto all the 700 odd seats they gained 4 years ago but I would be shocked if they lost more than that as this poll suggests

I think you need to be prepared to be surprised...

The Tories are staring down the barrel of a 1995 level of local election kicking. Remember that 1991 was a bit of a kicking already but it still managed to get considerably worse.

[jamie]

Mar 3, 2023 10:04:26 GMT clyde1998 said:

They may flatline, as there are places they didn’t break through in 2019 where they might this time due (even if the Tories did especially bad in 2019) as a lot of people wouldn’t’ve voted for them due to Brexit, especially in the ‘soft Leave’ shires. I think the anger with the Conservatives towards the end of the Johnson premiership and into the Truss ‘era’ has been replaced by apathy, so Conservative voters may not vote as opposed to actively voting against them.

Surprisingly I don’t think this was the case. Despite being ardent second referendum supporters at the time, John Curtice found that they were making substantial gains at the local elections irrespective of Brexit support, presumably due to the hideous unpopularity of the main 2 parties and the lack of Brexit Party option on the ballot paper. 

[michaelarden]

Mar 3, 2023 16:47:52 GMT Khunanup said:

Mar 3, 2023 11:28:06 GMT mattbewilson said:

I would be surprised if the Lib Dems held onto all the 700 odd seats they gained 4 years ago but I would be shocked if they lost more than that as this poll suggests

I think you need to be prepared to be surprised...

The Tories are staring down the barrel of a 1995 level of local election kicking. Remember that 1991 was a bit of a kicking already but it still managed to get considerably worse.

Mark Pack in his presidential musings wouldn't be speculating that the Lib Dems were about to do something they've never done before - increase councillor numbers five years in a row if they hadn't worked out the maths. I suspect they will achieve that but the pattern will be very interesting as they go backwards in some places they run the council or maxed out in 2019 but compensate for that in their so called "blue wall" where they're throwing the kitchen sink at on national issues.

[andrewp]

Omnisis have done a local election poll. Labour up. Indies down. Everyone else fairly static. Looks at least plausible.

Except I don’t think 4% of people will even have a Reform candidate

Local Elections Voting Intention:

LAB: 37% (+10)
CON: 26% (-1)
LDM: 17% (=)
GRN: 9% (=)
IND: 6% (-5)
RFM: 4% (+4)

Via @omnisis, 27-28 Apr.
Changes w/ LE2019.

[mattbewilson]

Apr 28, 2023 14:41:30 GMT andrewp said:

Omnisis have done a local election poll. Labour up. Indies down. Everyone else fairly static. Looks at least plausible.

Except I don’t think 4% of people will even have a Reform candidate

Local Elections Voting Intention:

LAB: 37% (+10)
CON: 26% (-1)
LDM: 17% (=)
GRN: 9% (=)
IND: 6% (-5)
RFM: 4% (+4)

Via @omnisis, 27-28 Apr.
Changes w/ LE2019.

looks pretty spot on tbf

[carlton43]

Apr 28, 2023 14:41:30 GMT andrewp said:

Omnisis have done a local election poll. Labour up. Indies down. Everyone else fairly static. Looks at least plausible.

Except I don’t think 4% of people will even have a Reform candidate

Local Elections Voting Intention:

LAB: 37% (+10)
CON: 26% (-1)
LDM: 17% (=)
GRN: 9% (=)
IND: 6% (-5)
RFM: 4% (+4)

Via @omnisis, 27-28 Apr.
Changes w/ LE2019.

I agree with you about Reform.  They are extrapolating from poll stats with no relationship to actual candidates.  I am one of the marked minority who does have a Reform candidate and I have voted for them but do not expect them to better 3rd place or probably make 3rd place.

[london(ex)tory]

Apr 28, 2023 14:41:30 GMT andrewp said:

Omnisis have done a local election poll. Labour up. Indies down. Everyone else fairly static. Looks at least plausible.

Except I don’t think 4% of people will even have a Reform candidate

Local Elections Voting Intention:

LAB: 37% (+10)
CON: 26% (-1)
LDM: 17% (=)
GRN: 9% (=)
IND: 6% (-5)
RFM: 4% (+4)

Via @omnisis, 27-28 Apr.
Changes w/ LE2019.

Looks a much more credible effort than the focaldata one, including an attempt to limit respondents to areas that actually have elections.

We won’t be any where near 4% across the board (only contesting 6% of seats) but if the average vote share in wards we *are* contesting is above that I’ll be happy.

[jamie]

That’s the least silly looking local elections poll I’ve ever seen. The Reform number is obviously wrong, but otherwise it looks perfectly plausible.