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Post by John Chanin on Mar 17, 2023 11:05:26 GMT
Labour transfers:
None 54%
Conservative 24%
SNP 22%
Other transfers are predictable. It's hard to know what to make of this, and it seems fairly typical of Labour transfers from what I remember of other Scottish local elections.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 17, 2023 11:06:34 GMT
I'm surprised the Labour to Conservative transfers weren't higher for this specific byelection, given the Conservative councillors are supporting a Labour administration in Stirling and the SNP are the principal opposition.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435 
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Post by iain on Mar 17, 2023 11:11:42 GMT
I'm surprised the Labour to Conservative transfers weren't higher for this specific byelection, given the Conservative councillors are supporting a Labour administration in Stirling and the SNP are the principal opposition. How many voters will actually know that though? |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,732
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Post by Chris from Brum on Mar 17, 2023 11:39:41 GMT
2022 2023Con 30.07% 40.97SNP 25.79% 26.88Grn 16.03% 8.7Lab 11.86% 13.42LD 9.37% 8.92
Interesting and possibly surprising that the SNP percentage share is up, presumably taken primarily from Green. Also a small Alba Party vote last year. Quite a bit of churn here, probably. How many people would switch direct from SGreen to Tory? |
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Post by robert1 on Mar 17, 2023 12:06:46 GMT
Taking the 3 recent Scottish by-elections, the movement per party at each in percentage terms has been
Aberdeen Edinburgh Stirling
Con -1.00% -6.32% +10.9%
Lab +8.17 -0.89 +1.55
LD +0.79 +6.24 -0.45
Grn -2.14 -1.78 -7.34
SNP -6.75 -5.43 +1.09
Make of these what you wish
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 17, 2023 12:19:40 GMT
The only *consistent* pattern in those is the Greens dropping support.
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
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Post by J.G.Harston on Mar 17, 2023 12:34:34 GMT
Don't have time to work out percentages, but here's first preference numbers Is the university still in the same ward as Bridge of Allan? When I was there before STV if students remembered to vote it was noticable in the results. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Mar 17, 2023 14:42:18 GMT
Don't have time to work out percentages, but here's first preference numbers Is the university still in the same ward as Bridge of Allan? When I was there before STV if students remembered to vote it was noticable in the results. No, Andrew's preview noted it was moved to Stirling North ward. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Mar 17, 2023 14:43:19 GMT
The only *consistent* pattern in those is the Greens dropping support. Reckon the younger left-wing side of the Green vote might just have stayed at home, as a result of the disillusionment with their coalition partner's leadership election. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,786
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Post by john07 on Mar 17, 2023 16:19:39 GMT
It's always best to look at function rather than size. Bishop's Castle has a population of less than two thousand, but is clearly a town. There are many places that are substantially larger that are clearly not towns. It must be a town if people drive up from London for an eye test? |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,732
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Post by Chris from Brum on Mar 17, 2023 16:52:52 GMT
It's always best to look at function rather than size. Bishop's Castle has a population of less than two thousand, but is clearly a town. There are many places that are substantially larger that are clearly not towns. It must be a town if people drive up from London for an eye test? That was Barnard Castle. Bishops Castle is in Shropshire. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Mar 17, 2023 17:08:02 GMT
It must be a town if people drive up from London for an eye test? That was Barnard Castle. Bishops Castle is in Shropshire. Though Barnard Castle is not all that far away from Bishop Auckland. |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,771
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Post by J.G.Harston on Mar 17, 2023 18:02:46 GMT
That was Barnard Castle. Bishops Castle is in Shropshire. Though Barnard Castle is not all that far away from Bishop Auckland. What about Barnard Auckland? |
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Post by batman on Mar 17, 2023 18:04:56 GMT
GWBWI Con +53 SNP +9 Lab -5 LDm -5 Grn -18 ASV Con +1.1 SNP +0.1 LDm +0.1 Lab +0.0 Grn -0.5 Cons positive - and on top of the rankings. Good result in Stirling, and the good vote increase in SCambs even meant they scored better (+13) than the LibDems who won the seat (+10) Not a good week for the Greens, Stirling being a little worse than SCambs. LDms matched Lab for GWBWI score (-5), but matched SNP for ASV (+0.1). Partly down to rounding, partly because they held the SCambs seat. I absolutely accept that it was the Tories' week, but -5 is a bit harsh on Labour, whose vote rose in Dunblane/Bridge of Allan, and who didn't do badly at all in Cottenham either. Perhaps you are basing your expectations on opinion polls, but it would have been unreasonable to expect Labour to be anywhere near winning either of these particular seats although it would perhaps have been different in the mid to late 90s. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Mar 17, 2023 20:02:43 GMT
GWBWI Con +53 SNP +9 Lab -5 LDm -5 Grn -18 ASV Con +1.1 SNP +0.1 LDm +0.1 Lab +0.0 Grn -0.5 Cons positive - and on top of the rankings. Good result in Stirling, and the good vote increase in SCambs even meant they scored better (+13) than the LibDems who won the seat (+10) Not a good week for the Greens, Stirling being a little worse than SCambs. LDms matched Lab for GWBWI score (-5), but matched SNP for ASV (+0.1). Partly down to rounding, partly because they held the SCambs seat. I absolutely accept that it was the Tories' week, but -5 is a bit harsh on Labour, whose vote rose in Dunblane/Bridge of Allan, and who didn't do badly at all in Cottenham either. Perhaps you are basing your expectations on opinion polls, but it would have been unreasonable to expect Labour to be anywhere near winning either of these particular seats although it would perhaps have been different in the mid to late 90s. tbf we've been doing fairly well in these weekly averages, one week that's a bit disappointing isn't game over |
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Post by batman on Mar 17, 2023 20:34:51 GMT
yes, I'm not accusing James of being systematically unfair to our party.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435
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Post by iain on Mar 17, 2023 20:45:12 GMT
GWBWI Con +53 SNP +9 Lab -5 LDm -5 Grn -18 ASV Con +1.1 SNP +0.1 LDm +0.1 Lab +0.0 Grn -0.5 Cons positive - and on top of the rankings. Good result in Stirling, and the good vote increase in SCambs even meant they scored better (+13) than the LibDems who won the seat (+10) Not a good week for the Greens, Stirling being a little worse than SCambs. LDms matched Lab for GWBWI score (-5), but matched SNP for ASV (+0.1). Partly down to rounding, partly because they held the SCambs seat. I absolutely accept that it was the Tories' week, but -5 is a bit harsh on Labour, whose vote rose in Dunblane/Bridge of Allan, and who didn't do badly at all in Cottenham either. Perhaps you are basing your expectations on opinion polls, but it would have been unreasonable to expect Labour to be anywhere near winning either of these particular seats although it would perhaps have been different in the mid to late 90s. I do think that the primary benefit of James’ system is showing that creating such a metric is basically impossible, but to be fair (well … sort of) the fault here may be his incomprehensible interpretation of STV. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Mar 17, 2023 21:28:02 GMT
Bearing in mind the local party's past neglect of Cottenham, the obvious squeeze and a Lib Dem who had been the district councillor previously, that isn't a bad Labour result. Yes, it's the sort of result that isn't good in of itself, but which provides a platform to build from if there's the willingness to put the effort in for a couple of cycles. |
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Post by carlton43 on Mar 17, 2023 21:28:25 GMT
Though Barnard Castle is not all that far away from Bishop Auckland. What about Barnard Auckland? Great actor. Did you catch his very moving Polonius? |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 18, 2023 11:00:26 GMT
yes, I'm not accusing James of being systematically unfair to our party. It could indeed have been plus five rather than minus five, but overall the ratings - Tories good week, Greens bad week - are surely correct. |
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