Local Council By-elections 16th March 2023

[andrewp]

Mar 16, 2023 23:20:18 GMT batman said:

Quite a good performance by the Conservatives. The Lib Dems' majority has taken a hit from Labour's candidacy, but the Tory vote is sharply up in any case.

To be fair, I’d say that was better than quite good. Only one straw in the wind but I would suggest that a Sunak/ Hunt leadership would likely appeal more in Cottenham type places than Johnson would. The reverse of the wretched red wall. As well as the local issues of course

[iain]

Quite relieved to hold that following the result in Longstanton a few months back. South Cambs DC is clearly pretty unpopular atm, at least in that area - I seem to remember someone saying that there is a lot of housing being built in the northern parts of the district (I think set in train quite some while ago, and the original Lib Dem gains here may have been part of the reaction to this?) which could explain the backlash?

[iang]

From twitter, the Tories were making a lot of opposing a Cambridge congestion charge, even though this is apparently a county level decision rather than a district one

[maxque]

Mar 16, 2023 23:28:34 GMT iain said:

Quite relieved to hold that following the result in Longstanton a few months back. South Cambs DC is clearly pretty unpopular atm, at least in that area - I seem to remember someone saying that there is a lot of housing being built in the northern parts of the district (I think set in train quite some while ago, and the original Lib Dem gains here may have blamed on this?) which could explain the backlash?

There are building a whole new town, Northstowe (in Longstanton ward, but right next to Rampton, which is Cottenham ward). It should have 24000 inhabitants in the end (not the only place with a new town being built, there is also one near Hythe, close to the Ashford district border).

[michaelarden]

Mar 16, 2023 23:25:10 GMT andrewp said:

Think this is almost entirely down to local issues - the fact the Tories were the challengers meant they couldn't get over the line because of national issues - unlike the Indies in Green Lane and St James in Kingston in November. 

[phil156]

Cannot read the turnout looks like 39% that is high

[riccimarsh]

Mar 16, 2023 22:46:52 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Mar 16, 2023 20:35:51 GMT Sibboleth said:

Anyway, I do think that the traditional distinction between a village and a hamlet is useful, because it's often indicative of other things: does the settlement have a church?

A village should have an Anglican parish church. A town should have a market charter even if the market is dormant. A city has a piece of paper saying it's a city unless it's been known as such since Time Immemorial. Those are the classic definitions.

Why on Earth does the presence of a church have anything to do with it?? Would a synagogue or mosque be insufficient??

[Pete Whitehead]

Mar 16, 2023 23:32:07 GMT iang said:

From twitter, the Tories were making a lot of opposing a Cambridge congestion charge, even though this is apparently a county level decision rather than a district one

The county council is run by a Lib Dem led coalition so it seems legitimate to campaign on that basis and for voters to use the opportunity to kick the Lib Dems, even if the councillor being elected can't directly influence the policy. There is such a thing as sending a message, but I dare say the Lib Dems would never seek votes in local elections on the basis of their opposition to the national government..

[Adam in Stroud]

Mar 17, 2023 0:18:25 GMT riccimarsh said:

Mar 16, 2023 22:46:52 GMT Chris from Brum said:

A village should have an Anglican parish church. A town should have a market charter even if the market is dormant. A city has a piece of paper saying it's a city unless it's been known as such since Time Immemorial. Those are the classic definitions.

Why on Earth does the presence of a church have anything to do with it?? Would a synagogue or mosque be insufficient??

Loads.

In England (but not Ireland, Wales or Scotland) from medieval times onward the basic unit of rural life was the village, a settlement with enough labour to carry out arable agriculture (which requires a larger settled population in a central place than the pastoral agriculture of the "Celtic" regions, or the upland zones of Northern and Western England come to that) which would in turn be the centre of a manor. The very word village derives from Latin Villa, which in this context is connected to "manor". The manorial lord invariably built a parish church, which was inherited by the CofE at the Reformation - hence Chris from Brum's specification of Anglican church rather than Methodist Chapel or Catholic Church, let alone Synagogue or Mosque. Manor, village and parish are usually interchangeable terms.

These are fundamental points about the social history and human geography of this country irrespective of one's views of religion (or lords of the manor, come to that.) The absence of villages clustered around a parish church is very obvious if you travel cross-country outside that core territory of Southern and Midland England and has a lot to do with why Scotland and Wales - and to a lesser extent Cornwall - have separate identities to England. The divide between the lowland-village-with-church Anglican zone and the upland farmstead-hamlet-and-chapel-or-kirk Nonconformist zone is an almost exact match with the divide between Tory and Liberal in the C19th which in turn has a very big co-relation with current Tory and Labour safe seats; (the presence of Mosques and Synagogues would be a fairly strong indicator of labour safe seats too.)

I would argue that historically it is always likely that people who live in clusters around the home of a rich family who were landlords and employers of most of them, and in proximity to a church where for generations the parish priest (appointed by the rich family) told them what to think and do every Sunday, would always be more inclined to a political philosophy that is both more deferential and more communitarian; while those who live in scattered households, herding sheep, with insufficient prosperity to attract resident gentry, and the parish church an inconvenient distance away (except for important events such as marriages, funerals and christenings) would always be more inclined to a nonconformist (in all senses) philosophy.

[Harry Hayfield]

Cottenham (comparing like with like, 2023 vs 2018)
2023: Lib Dem 42%, Con 33%, Lab 18%, Green 5%, Ind 3%
2018: Lib Dem 43%, Con 29%, Lab 13%, Green 6%, Ind 9%
Change: Lib Dem -1%, Con +4%, Lab +5%, Green -1%, Ind -6%

[matureleft]

Bearing in mind the local party's past neglect of Cottenham, the obvious squeeze and a Lib Dem who had been the district councillor previously, that isn't a bad Labour result.

[olympian95]

Tory win in Dunblane apparently

[aidypiez]

Don't have time to work out percentages, but here's first preference numbers

[Chris from Brum]

Big collapse in Green vote there.

[bjornhattan]

Mar 17, 2023 10:03:58 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Big collapse in Green vote there.

And by contrast, remarkable stability in the Family Party vote.

[Robert Waller]

I make Dunblane *will need to be checked

C 41.0%
SNP 26.9
Lab 13.4
LD 8.9
G 8.7
Family 1.1

Green candidate not from ward

[jamesdoyle]

GWBWI

Con +53
SNP +9
Lab -5
LDm -5
Grn -18

ASV

Con +1.1
SNP +0.1
LDm +0.1
Lab +0.0
Grn -0.5

Cons positive - and on top of the rankings. Good result in Stirling, and the good vote increase in SCambs even meant they scored better (+13) than the LibDems who won the seat (+10)
Not a good week for the Greens, Stirling being a little worse than SCambs.
LDms matched Lab for GWBWI score (-5), but matched SNP for ASV (+0.1). Partly down to rounding, partly because they held the SCambs seat.

[robert1]

                    2022                2023

Con          30.07%                40.97
SNP          25.79%                26.88
Grn          16.03%                   8.7
Lab          11.86%                13.42
LD              9.37%                  8.92

Interesting and possibly surprising that the SNP percentage share is up, presumably taken primarily  from Green.

[YL]

	Count 1	Family transfers	Count 2	Green transfers	Count 3	Lib Dem transfers	Count 4	Lab transfers	Count 5
Con	1832	17	1849	12	1861	98	1959	213	2172
SNP	1202	3	1205	211	1416	75	1491	192	1683
Lab	600	9	609	61	670	201	871
Lib Dem	399	5	404	71	475
Green	389	1	390
Family	50
Non-trans		15	15	35	50	101	151	466	617

(Based on the graph tweeted by Ballot Box Scotland)

[The Bishop]

Mar 17, 2023 10:41:23 GMT robert1 said:

                    2022                2023

Con          30.07%                40.97
SNP          25.79%                26.88
Grn          16.03%                   8.7
Lab          11.86%                13.42
LD              9.37%                  8.92

Interesting and possibly surprising that the SNP percentage share is up, presumably taken primarily  from Green.

Also a small Alba Party vote last year.