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Post by greenhert on Feb 24, 2023 22:40:09 GMT
Alyn and Deeside / East Flintshire Not really urban, not deprived (8th decile). Leave voting. Tories have come close many times since 1950. - 10 times won by Labour by 10% or less, 3 times by 5% or less since (closest 0.2%). Is there somewhere with as many % tory votes as this since in this period that have never been successful in electing a Conservative MP. Overall, maybe, but there are many areas of significant deprivation in Alyn & Deeside around Connah's Quay and Shotton. The rest of Alyn & Deeside is by no means affluent either-I have been there. |
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Post by aargauer on Feb 25, 2023 2:13:58 GMT
Does anyone have a view on why the Labour vote is so much lower in Orpington than Beckenham? They seem to have a similar profile in my view. I live in Beckenham (the town and the constituency - I say that because a chunk of Beckenham itself actually isn't in the constituency for now). Both constituencies are similar in many ways, but Orpington is far more "outer-London" (Downe, Crofton, Biggin Hill, Farnborough), with the demographics that brings. Most of the Beckenham constituency looks towards London, whilst Orpington looks towards Kent (the workers in the City on the fast trains to and from Orpington still think they live in Kent). Overall Orpington has an older population, is highly owner-occupied (especially for London), has fewer in managerial/professional occupations and is less degree-level educated. I find it interesting comparing constituencies in different cities. Having spent half my life in south Manchester and half in south London, my gut feel is that Beckenham is a bit like Altrincham and Sale West and Orpington is Hazel Grove. My older daughter is born in Farnborough - same Hospital as Nigel Farage. |
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Mar 31, 2023 13:54:55 GMT
Since the 1990s the Conservative vote has slumped in Glasgow's affluent West End, and apart from winning 2 of 8 councillors in 2017 with 23% of the vote, the party have not won any local ward councillors in the area since 1995.
This is a far cry from affluent parts of Edinburgh, Aberdeen and Dundee which have intermittently voted Conservative over the same period, or even Bearsden, where the Conservatives hold a more respectable level of support in Scottish Parliamentary elections.
In fact, I believe Glasgow Kelvin is one of their worst performing constituencies in Scotland on both constituency and regional list votes (8% and 11% respectively in 2021).
The West End is somewhere that feels like it should have more of a Conservative vote but is significantly better territory for Labour, the SNP and the Greens, and the Tories have come nowhere in any parliamentary seat in the area since the SDP gained Glasgow Hillhead from them in 1982 and the Conservatives' subsequent collapse into fourth place in 1997.
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Clark
Forum Regular
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Post by Clark on Mar 31, 2023 19:32:16 GMT
Since the 1990s the Conservative vote has slumped in Glasgow's affluent West End, and apart from winning 2 of 8 councillors in 2017 with 23% of the vote, the party have not won any local ward councillors in the area since 1995. This is a far cry from affluent parts of Edinburgh, Aberdeen and Dundee which have intermittently voted Conservative over the same period, or even Bearsden, where the Conservatives hold a more respectable level of support in Scottish Parliamentary elections. In fact, I believe Glasgow Kelvin is one of their worst performing constituencies in Scotland on both constituency and regional list votes (8% and 11% respectively in 2021). The West End is somewhere that feels like it should have more of a Conservative vote but is significantly better territory for Labour, the SNP and the Greens, and the Tories have come nowhere in any parliamentary seat in the area since the SDP gained Glasgow Hillhead from them in 1982 and the Conservatives' subsequent collapse into fourth place in 1997. Yeah they should be doing much better in places like Jordanhill although their support seems to be holding up in Carmunnock in the far south of the Glasgow South seat. |
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Post by uthacalthing on Mar 31, 2023 19:50:54 GMT
In government.
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Post by November_Rain on Apr 1, 2023 15:25:14 GMT
Bristol South. Despite the Tories giving it a close run in 2019, 2015, 1987 and 1983, plus throw in council presence in Stockwood, Bishopsworth and strong performances in Hengrove & Whitchurch Park / Hartcliffe (2021 - only 27 votes off a seat). It's the sort of Bristol seat demographically that appeals to the "new wave" of the Tories, a few middle class wards, but is cancelled out due to some deprived areas.
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Post by rcronald on Apr 1, 2023 16:45:54 GMT
Bristol South. Despite the Tories giving it a close run in 2019, 2015, 1987 and 1983, plus throw in council presence in Stockwood, Bishopsworth and strong performances in Hengrove & Whitchurch Park / Hartcliffe (2021 - only 27 votes off a seat). It's the sort of Bristol seat demographically that appeals to the "new wave" of the Tories, a few middle class wards, but is cancelled out due to some deprived areas. I don’t know Bristol very well, but to me it seems like they are underperforming more in Bristol East, as Bristol South has some wards that are genuinely far left (the ones closer to city centre) and is perhaps slightly poorer? |
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Post by batman on Apr 1, 2023 17:19:47 GMT
If so, it's very longstanding, as Bristol East was a very rare Labour survival amongst non-mining seats outside London in 1931, although of course the Tories won it in the 80s.
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Post by rcronald on Apr 1, 2023 17:29:00 GMT
If so, it's very longstanding, as Bristol East was a very rare Labour survival amongst non-mining seats outside London in 1931, although of course the Tories won it in the 80s. Bristol East and Kingswood voted very similarly in the 80s+92’ 1983 Kingswood- C+3.3 Bristol East- C+3.6 1987 Kingswood- C+7.5 Bristol East- C+8.2 1992 Kingswood- L+3.9 Bristol East- L+5.4 And very similar Labour vote shares in 2001-2010 2001 Kingswood-54.9% Bristol East-55% 2005 Kingswood-47% Bristol East-45.9% 2010 Kingswood-35.3% Bristol East-36.6% |
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 1, 2023 17:33:31 GMT
If so, it's very longstanding, as Bristol East was a very rare Labour survival amongst non-mining seats outside London in 1931, although of course the Tories won it in the 80s. There were Independent Labour candidates in Bristol East at the by elections of 1890 and 1895, in the latter case polling almost 49% of the vote, with the Tories not standing in the latter by election , or in the General Elections of 1892 or 1895.
Labour's candidate in 1910 was Frank Sheppard who later went on to be Bristol's first Labour mayor, as early as 1917.
It is fair to say it is a seat with a very long Labour history.
EDIT: There was another by election in 1911 when the Liberal Charles Hobhouse had been made Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster. He was opposed by an independent Walter Moore, who however was not Labour inclined but a candidate of the "John Bull League" - so a supporter (indeed, an employee) of Horatio Bottomley.
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,299 
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Post by maxque on Apr 1, 2023 22:23:52 GMT
If so, it's very longstanding, as Bristol East was a very rare Labour survival amongst non-mining seats outside London in 1931, although of course the Tories won it in the 80s. The seat was quite different, through. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 2, 2023 0:59:39 GMT
If so, it's very longstanding, as Bristol East was a very rare Labour survival amongst non-mining seats outside London in 1931, although of course the Tories won it in the 80s. Well it partially was a mining seat |
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Post by batman on Apr 2, 2023 7:17:48 GMT
blimey, I knew there was a Somerset coalfield but didn't know there were mines in Bristol
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 2, 2023 9:04:53 GMT
They closed down a *long* time ago, but yes. There was once mining in the Thornbury area as well.
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