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Post by timrollpickering on Feb 1, 2023 21:02:55 GMT
I think the kind of people who engage in infantile politically inspired boycotts of that kind are not the sort of people who would ever have been likely Conservative voters anyway. Liverpool's boycott of The Sun is in a very different category and for very different reasons from your average political boycott. But more pertinently even if potential Conservative voters in Liverpool are less likely to be personally opposed to The Sun and even if they're prepared to risk the social odium of being seen with it, the widespread boycott by newsagents and the reported hiding of stock in national chains that do receive it means it's hard to actually get the paper. There was a study in 2019 that claimed the boycott had influenced a long term switch in attitudes towards the EU in Liverpool but it didn't use the strongest methodology and provoked quite a few counter pieces, with one thread arguing that the city's Euroscepticism in the 1970s & 1980s was rooted in being an Atlantic port city that lost out with huge unemployment in the reorientation towards the continent but from the 1990s onwards a combination of the Atlantic dockers' generation dying out and the EU splashing cash on prominent projects altered attitudes. |
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Post by greenhert on Feb 1, 2023 23:13:13 GMT
North East Fife Edinburgh - especially Edinburgh South and Edinburgh West. North Perthshire - the white whale for the Tories. They all used to be reliably Conservative, though (counting close precursors). Demographic change is a key reason for the Conservatives' decline in Edinburgh South and Edinburgh West, not to mention tactical voting. |
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 2, 2023 11:12:36 GMT
This was an easier question to answer before the 2019 GE, when the Tories won a number of "traditionally underperforming" seats - some for the first time.
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Post by where2travel on Feb 2, 2023 13:05:12 GMT
University cities. The Lib Demmy bits of south-west London (plus similar areas in Manchester - Cheadle and Hazel Grove - and Sheffield Hallam). Very wealthy inner west London. Reading the corresponding thread about Labour, I'd say Labour have underperformed a lot more than the Tories in Hazel Grove, and to a lesser extent Cheadle. Neither constituency is fertile territory for Labour, but they should have performed a lot better than they have done (often being pushed down to a single digit percentage). Of course this is due to the very effective and reasonably consistent Lib Dem squeeze on their vote, and the Lib Dem strength locally. It's interesting to compare the difference and trends in Altrincham and Sale West vs Cheadle (two similar and nearby seats). |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Feb 2, 2023 14:37:06 GMT
Basically everywhere rural in both Scotland and Wales. It's weird to think that Montgomeryshire used to be a typical Welsh underperformance, but in the last couple of elections it's looked much more as one would expect. The positive way of looking at that is that it's the Glyn Davies effect. The negative way is that the rest of the Welsh Conservative Party is so useless that Glyn is remarkable. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Feb 2, 2023 14:47:42 GMT
Some wealthy London seats must be starting to fall into this category in more recent times?
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Post by batman on Feb 2, 2023 17:19:30 GMT
undoubtedly, Hampstead & Kilburn being a good example for starters
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Post by gwynthegriff on Feb 2, 2023 18:21:53 GMT
Basically everywhere rural in both Scotland and Wales. It's weird to think that Montgomeryshire used to be a typical Welsh underperformance, but in the last couple of elections it's looked much more as one would expect. The positive way of looking at that is that it's the Glyn Davies effect. The negative way is that the rest of the Welsh Conservative Party is so useless that Glyn is remarkable. The last incumbent from a different party may also have contributed . . . |
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Feb 2, 2023 18:59:59 GMT
The last incumbent from a different party may also have contributed . . . People who don't know the area often assume that the remarkable Liberal run of success in Montgomery was anchored on a genepool vote, and it wasn't really. It was more that the brand became associated with solid, stable individuals who reflected well on the constituency and who gave it the right sort of attention themselves, and that sort of thing can matter in a country area... |
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obsie
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Post by obsie on Feb 5, 2023 22:01:28 GMT
The last incumbent from a different party may also have contributed . . . People who don't know the area often assume that the remarkable Liberal run of success in Montgomery was anchored on a genepool vote, and it wasn't really. It was more that the brand became associated with solid, stable individuals who reflected well on the constituency and who gave it the right sort of attention themselves, and that sort of thing can matter in a country area... The Truss Effect before Truss. |
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xenon
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Post by xenon on Feb 8, 2023 0:10:58 GMT
Warley, especially compared to surrounding seats in the Black Country and West Midlands more generally – I'm not familiar with it's demographics but I would guess religious/ethnic factors are at least partially responsible.
Plenty of the Scottish ones have already been said, but the Outer Hebrides is certainly an interesting one given its rural nature (but of course there are more complicated religious and economic factors at play).
Preston? Obviously you would expect it to be Labour, but for a small city with several areas of relative affluence you'd have thought the Tories would at least manage to get out of the mid-20s.
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Post by rockefeller on Feb 8, 2023 7:11:13 GMT
East Dunbartonshire. I know a lot of it is tactical voting but given its wealth, the Tories performance is awful.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 8, 2023 19:28:15 GMT
Does anyone have a view on why the Labour vote is so much lower in Orpington than Beckenham? They seem to have a similar profile in my view.
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Post by finsobruce on Feb 8, 2023 19:44:20 GMT
Does anyone have a view on why the Labour vote is so much lower in Orpington than Beckenham? They seem to have a similar profile in my view. Well my paternal grandmother and aunt used to live in Beckenham and it always seemed quite suburban to me but I think that Orpington has always thought itself more middle class even if it isn't . Orpington as Surbiton and Beckenham as Kingston/Norbiton perhaps? batman may have a view on my comparison.
As always the historical strength of party organisation plays a large part. Labour finished only 4,500 votes behind in the 1945 election and the liberals missed standing in a few elections after that. But as we know, the Orpington by election cast a long shadow for decades, until the coalition caused the collapsed of the lib dem strength and the Tory majority went into the stratosphere.
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Post by batman on Feb 8, 2023 19:57:56 GMT
I'd say it's part of a process whereby Labour tends to do rather better in more inner than outer suburbs. Orpington is right on the edge of the built-up area, whereas Beckenham is that bit further in & is not totally resistant to demographic winds blowing in from some neighbouring constituencies. So while Beckenham is technically an outer suburb, it's not quite as outer as Orpington.
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Post by finsobruce on Feb 8, 2023 20:10:03 GMT
I'd say it's part of a process whereby Labour tends to do rather better in more inner than outer suburbs. Orpington is right on the edge of the built-up area, whereas Beckenham is that bit further in & is not totally resistant to demographic winds blowing in from some neighbouring constituencies. So while Beckenham is technically an outer suburb, it's not quite as outer as Orpington. An exburb rather than a suburb perhaps? |
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jakegb
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Post by jakegb on Feb 8, 2023 20:36:49 GMT
Eastbourne - a Brexit backing seat (with a decent majority). Elderly population. Far removed from the Brighton effect.
Yes it is Tory at the moment, but a seat of this nature should give them a 10,000 majority + - similar to some of the Kent coastal seats.
It remains to be seen whether their long term prospects improve following Stephen Lloyd's decision to stand down (for the Lib Dems) improves the Tories' long term prospects - as he has certainly taken the wind out of their sails in recent general elections.
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Feb 12, 2023 14:35:19 GMT
Stretford and Urmston? Considering much of the area was represented by ‘a’ Winston Churchill for some time, and even prior to the derisory vote in the recent by-election, there was hardly any swing in 2010 and 2019 for example. Plus it’s quite something when the 1997 result turns out to be the best result for the Conservatives in the seat’s history (by both number of votes and share), perhaps an overhang from Churchill’s days though he stood down in ‘97.
Given in local government the conservatives (in the Urmston/Davyhulme areas) have pretty much gone down the drain in recent years, I suspect this won’t be changing anytime soon, not least in the safe hands of Andrew Western, who has a similar background to Bev Hughes in being a former council leader.
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mrtoad
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Post by mrtoad on Feb 12, 2023 21:59:40 GMT
Coventry North West is the sort of seat that 'should' have gone Tory at some point - 1976, 1979, 1983, 2019 in particular - but never has. Geoffrey Robinson probably a factor in keeping it on the Labour side.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 12, 2023 22:10:55 GMT
Coventry North West is the sort of seat that 'should' have gone Tory at some point - 1976, 1979, 1983, 2019 in particular - but never has. Geoffrey Robinson probably a factor in keeping it on the Labour side. I'm fairly sure that the amusing story about the 2019 selection is true (that the NEC fixed the shortlist to favour their favoured local candidate, reasoning there was no way they'd pick a 27 year old London-based pharmacist, only for Taiwo Owatemi to wow the selection meeting and win). I note she spent last week on the LFI organised tour of Israel. Not that she was particularly close to the Corbynites, but it's a good sign. |
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