Prediction Competition - February 2023

[iainbhx]

Congratulations to yellowperil for the week, I think.

[johnloony]

Feb 2, 2023 23:12:21 GMT robbienicoll said:

14 entries this week, with casualobserver making a return, all on time and correct.

Hotwells and Harbourside, Bristol: 8 Liberal Democrat hold, with casualobserver, iainbhx, johnloony, manchesterman, peterl and yellowperil Green gain.

Northall, North Northamptonshire: 100% Labour gain from Conservative, with majorities ranging from 7% (johnloony) to 24% (peterl).

Llantarnam, Torfaen: 8 Independent (O'Connell) win, with casualobserver, manchesterman, No Offence Alan, Right Leaning, Robert Waller and Tony Otim Labour gain from Independent.

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tNrT27pkgIakFCqUaf2J1aF8BR-GenXz1zahGcj0F5Y/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

I’ve noticed that I missed out the LD candidate in my prediction for Torfaen, but the spreadsheet has it listed as a prediction of 0%. Should I get a penalty for missing out a candidate?

[robbienicoll]

Feb 3, 2023 18:34:54 GMT johnloony said:

Feb 2, 2023 23:12:21 GMT robbienicoll said:

14 entries this week, with casualobserver making a return, all on time and correct.

Hotwells and Harbourside, Bristol: 8 Liberal Democrat hold, with casualobserver, iainbhx, johnloony, manchesterman, peterl and yellowperil Green gain.

Northall, North Northamptonshire: 100% Labour gain from Conservative, with majorities ranging from 7% (johnloony) to 24% (peterl).

Llantarnam, Torfaen: 8 Independent (O'Connell) win, with casualobserver, manchesterman, No Offence Alan, Right Leaning, Robert Waller and Tony Otim Labour gain from Independent.

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tNrT27pkgIakFCqUaf2J1aF8BR-GenXz1zahGcj0F5Y/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

I’ve noticed that I missed out the LD candidate in my prediction for Torfaen, but the spreadsheet has it listed as a prediction of 0%. Should I get a penalty for missing out a candidate?

No penalty for missing a candidate on its own. It is taken as a 0% prediction, so if a candidate was meant to be included and the prediction doesn't add up to 100, that would incur the addition faults, and then faults are given as normal for how far away 0% is from the actual result, so there are soft penalties for not including the full slate.

[batman]

CHELTENHAM, Battledown : LD 47 C 39 Green 10 Lab 4

DARTFORD, Wilmington, Sutton-at-Hone & Hawley : C 48 Lab 31 Green 21

DENBIGHSHIRE, Rhyl Ty Newydd : Lab 49 C 31 PC 11 LD 6 Ind 3

HERTFORDSHIRE, Hitchin N. : Lab 49 C 25 Green 23 CPA 3

N.YORKSHIRE, Masham & Fountains : LD 53 C 47

[peterl]

CHELTENHAM, Battledown : LD 49 C 34 Green 12 Lab 5
DARTFORD, Wilmington, Sutton-at-Hone & Hawley : C 45 Lab 37 Green 18
DENBIGHSHIRE, Rhyl Ty Newydd : Lab 52 C 25 PC 10 LD 8 Ind 5
HERTFORDSHIRE, Hitchin N. : Lab 51 C 29 Green 18 CPA 2
N.YORKSHIRE, Masham & Fountains : LD 56 C 44

[johnloony]

Cheltenham: LD 45 Con 36 Green 12 Lab 7
Dartford: Con 53 Lab 30 Grn 17
Denbigh: Lab 52 Con 19 Ind 12 PC 9 LD 8
Hertfordshire: Lab 61 Con 26 Grn 12 CPA 1
North Yorkshire: LD 57 Con 43

[kevinf]

Cheltenham
LD 45, Con 35, Lab 11, Green 9
Dartford
Conn50, Green 35, Lab 15
Denbighshire
Lab 40, LD 25, Con 19, Green 10, Ind 6
Herts
Lab 60, Con 25, Green 14, CPA 1
N Yorks
LD 53, Con 47

[Richard Cromwell]

Wilmington, Sutton-at-Hone & Hawley, Dartford

CON	47%
LAB	38%
GRN	15%

Battledown, Cheltenham

CON	38%
LDEM	36%
GRN	15%
LAB	11%

Rhyl Tŷ Newydd, Denbighshire

LAB	78%
IND	10%
CON	9%
LDEM	2%
Plaid Cymru	1%

Hitchin North, Hertfordshire

LAB	73%
CON	15%
GRN	11%
CPA	1%

Masham & Fountains, North Yorkshire

CON	56%
LDEM	44%

[Tony Otim]

Cheltenham: LD 44.5; Con 39.1; Grn 9.9; Lab 6.5
Dartford: Con 61.5; Lab 26.7; Grn 11.8
Denbighshire: Lab 48.2; Con 26.5; PC 13.2; LD 7.3; Rowlands 4.8
Hertfordshire: Lab 60.9; Con 24.1; Grn 13.9; CPA 1.1
North Yorkshire: LD 54.6; Con 45.4

[andrewp]

Cheltenham LD 49 Con 35 Green 10 Lab 6
Dartford. Con 60 Lab 28 Green 12
Denbighshire, Lab 44, Ind 23 Con 22, PC 7, LD 4
Hertfordshire. Lab 60, Green 20, Con 18, CPA 2
North Yorkshire. LD 62, Con 38

[yellowperil]

Cheltenham, Battledown:Con 36, Lab 7, LD 45, GP 12.
Dartford, Wilmington, etc: Con 50, Lab 35,GP 15.
Denbighshire,Rhyl Ty Newydd: Con 20, Lab 50,LD 5, PC 11, Ind 14.
Hertfordshire, Hitchin N: Con 20, Lab 60, GP 19, CPA 1.
North Yorks, Masham & Fountains: Con 40, LD 60.

[No Offence Alan]

Cheltenham, Battledown: LD 44, Con 35, Lab 11, Grn 10
Dartford, Wilmington, etc: Con 58, Lab 33, Grn 9
Denbighshire,Rhyl Ty Newedd: Lab 52, Con 22, PC 13, Ind 7, LD 6
Hertfordshire, Hitchin N: Lab 58, Con 23, Grn 16, CPA 3
North Yorks, Masham & Fountains: LD 51, Con 49

[manchesterman]

CHELTENHAM, Battledown : LD 50, Con 33, Green 10, Lab 7
DARTFORD, Wilmington, Sutton-at-Hone & Hawley : Con 52, Lab 32, Green 16
DENBIGHSHIRE, Rhyl Ty Newydd : Lab 50, Con 22, Ind 14, PC 7, LD 7
HERTFORDSHIRE, Hitchin N. : Lab 55, Con 25, Green 17, CPA 3
N.YORKSHIRE, Masham & Fountains : LD 52, Con 48

[Robert Waller]

Cheltenham LD 48 Con 38 Green 8 Lab 6

Dartford. Con 60 Lab 25 Green 15

Denbighshire, Lab 48, Ind 14 Con 26, PC 8, LD 4

Hertfordshire. Lab 60, Green 18, Con 20, CPA 2

North Yorkshire. LD 62, Con 38

[rightleaning]

Cheltenham, Battledown: LD 51, Con 32, Gn 10, Lab 7.
Dartford, Wilmington, etc: Con 54, Lab 32, Gn 14.
Denbighshire,Rhyl Ty Newydd: Lab 49, Con 22, Ind 14, PC 10, LD 5
Hertfordshire, Hitchin N: Lab 58, Con 21, Gn 20, CPA 1.
North Yorks, Masham & Fountains: LD 64, Con 36.

[iainbhx]

Cheltenham DC, Battledown: LDm 42, Con 40, Grn 12, Lab 6
Dartford DC, Wilmington, Sutton-at-Hone & Hawley: Con 55, Lab 30, Grn 15
Denbighshire WUA, Rhyl Tŷ Newydd: Lab 50, Con 26, Ind 10, PC 8, LDm 6
Hertfordshire CC, Hitchin N: Lab 56, Grn 22, Con 20, CPA 2
North Yorks CC, Masham & Fountains: LDm 60 Con 40

[johnloony]

BARNET Golders Green: Con 55 Lab 26 Grn 11 LD 6 RejoinEU 2
CAMBRIDGESHIRE St Neots The Eatons: Ind 53 Con 26 Lab 15 LD 6
CORNWALL Long Rock, Marazion & St Erth: LD 36 Con 29 Lab 21 Grn 14
SEFTON Netherton & Orrell: Lab 75 (-) 19 Con 6

[robbienicoll]

13 entries this week, losing casualobserver, all on time and correct.

Battledown, Cheltenham: 12 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, with majorities ranging from 2% (iainbhx) to 19% (Right Leaning). Richard Cromwell Conservative hold with 2% majority.

Wilmington, Sutton-at-Hone and Hawley, Dartford: 100% Conservative hold, with majorities ranging from 8% (peterl) to 35% (Robert Waller).

Rhyl Ty Newydd, Denbighshire: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 15% (kevinf) to 68% (Richard Cromwell).

Hitchin North, Hertfordshire: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 22% (peterl) to 58% (Richard Cromwell).

Masham and Fountains, North Yorkshire: 12 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, with majorities ranging from 2% (No Offence Alan) to 28% (Right Leaning). Richard Cromwell Conservative hold with 12% majority.

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PbD_K5PX2Na9T0Z8zPS7nAT7pjc5Oauf_Smu0xJmJ5c/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[yellowperil]

Feb 9, 2023 21:53:09 GMT robbienicoll said:

13 entries this week, losing casualobserver, all on time and correct.

Battledown, Cheltenham: 12 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, with majorities ranging from 2% (iainbhx) to 19% (Right Leaning). Richard Cromwell Conservative hold with 2% majority.

Wilmington, Sutton-at-Hone and Hawley, Dartford: 100% Conservative hold, with majorities ranging from 8% (peterl) to 35% (Robert Waller).

Rhyl Ty Newydd, Denbighshire: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 15% (kevinf) to 68% (Richard Cromwell).

Hitchin North, Hertfordshire: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 22% (peterl) to 58% (Richard Cromwell).

Masham and Fountains, North Yorkshire: 12 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, with majorities ranging from 2% (No Offence Alan and yellowperil) to 28% (Right Leaning). Richard Cromwell Conservative hold with 12% majority.

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PbD_K5PX2Na9T0Z8zPS7nAT7pjc5Oauf_Smu0xJmJ5c/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

My forecast LD majority in Masham was 20% not 2%

[robbienicoll]

Feb 9, 2023 23:30:50 GMT yellowperil said:

Feb 9, 2023 21:53:09 GMT robbienicoll said:

13 entries this week, losing casualobserver, all on time and correct.

Battledown, Cheltenham: 12 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, with majorities ranging from 2% (iainbhx) to 19% (Right Leaning). Richard Cromwell Conservative hold with 2% majority.

Wilmington, Sutton-at-Hone and Hawley, Dartford: 100% Conservative hold, with majorities ranging from 8% (peterl) to 35% (Robert Waller).

Rhyl Ty Newydd, Denbighshire: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 15% (kevinf) to 68% (Richard Cromwell).

Hitchin North, Hertfordshire: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 22% (peterl) to 58% (Richard Cromwell).

Masham and Fountains, North Yorkshire: 12 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, with majorities ranging from 2% (No Offence Alan and yellowperil) to 28% (Right Leaning). Richard Cromwell Conservative hold with 12% majority.

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PbD_K5PX2Na9T0Z8zPS7nAT7pjc5Oauf_Smu0xJmJ5c/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

My forecast LD majority in Masham was 20% not 2%

Yes, apologies, read the wrong entry for three of yours, now corrected. Also spotted that kevinf has a rogue Green in Denbighshire instead of PC, so unfortunately with the 10 predicted for the phantom Green taken off that means 10 faults for only getting to 90 there.