Prediction Competition - February 2023

[robbienicoll]

There appears to be 14 by-elections during February.

- 3 by-elections on 2 February
- 5 on 9 February
- 4 on 16 February
- 2 on 23 February

2 by-elections are for District Councils, 1 of which were last contested in 2022 and 1 in a 2022 by-election with the last full election in 2019
4 are for a unitary authority, 1 last contested in 2022 and the remaining 3 in 2021
2 are for County Councils last contested in 2021
1 is for a Metropolitan council last contested in 2022
1 is for a London borough council last contested in 2022
3 are for Welsh authorities last contested in 2022
1 is for a Scottish council last contested in 2022

Conservatives defend 7 seats, 4 following the death of the previous councillor and 3 a resignation
Labour defend 3 seats, 2 following the death of the previous councillor and 1 a resignation
Liberal Democrats defend 1 seat following a resignation
Plaid Cymru defend 1 seat following a resignation
Independents defend 1 seat following a resignation
St Neots Independent Group defend 1 seat (although have not put up a candidate under that label) following the death of the previous councillor

With all SOPNs now published, there are 13 Conservative and Labour candidates apiece, 11 Liberal Democrats, 8 Greens, 3 Plaid Cymru and 1 apiece for the SNP, Reform UK, Scottish Greens, Rejoin EU, Alba, Christian People’s Alliance and Scottish Family Party together with 8 Independents and 1 No Description contesting 7 elections
- a total of 64 candidates for 14 seats.

Predictions on this thread at 9.00am on the day of the election.

[batman]

BRISTOL, Hotwells & Harbourside : LD 36 Green 24 Lab 18 Ind 13 C 9

N.NORTHAMPTONSHIRE, Northall : Lab 45 C 30 LD 12 RefUK 7 Green 6

TORFAEN, Llantarnam : Ind 40 Lab 26 PC 18 Green 7 LD 5 C 4

[peterl]

BRISTOL, Hotwells & Harbourside : Green 34 LD 31 Lab 22 Ind 9 C 4

N.NORTHAMPTONSHIRE, Northall : Lab 49 C 25 LD 15 RefUK 6 Green 5

TORFAEN, Llantarnam : Ind 36 Lab 30 PC 16 Green 8 LD 6 C 4

[kevinf]

Jan 28, 2023 19:05:00 GMT robbienicoll said:

There appears to be 14 by-elections during February.

- 3 by-elections on 2 February
- 5 on 9 February
- 4 on 16 February
- 2 on 23 February

2 by-elections are for District Councils, 1 of which were last contested in 2022 and 1 in a 2022 by-election with the last full election in 2019
4 are for a unitary authority, 1 last contested in 2022 and the remaining 3 in 2021
2 are for County Councils last contested in 2021
1 is for a Metropolitan council last contested in 2022
1 is for a London borough council last contested in 2022
3 are for Welsh authorities last contested in 2022
1 is for a Scottish council last contested in 2022

Conservatives defend 7 seats, 4 following the death of the previous councillor and 3 a resignation
Labour defend 3 seats, 2 following the death of the previous councillor and 1 a resignation
Liberal Democrats defend 1 seat following a resignation
Plaid Cymru defend 1 seat following a resignation
Independents defend 1 seat following a resignation
St Neots Independent Group defend 1 seat (although have not put up a candidate under that label) following the death of the previous councillor

With all SOPNs now published, there are 13 Conservative and Labour candidates apiece, 11 Liberal Democrats, 8 Greens, 3 Plaid Cymru and 1 apiece for the SNP, Reform UK, Scottish Greens, Rejoin UK, Alba, Christian People’s Alliance and Scottish Family Party together with 8 Independents and 1 No Description contesting 7 elections
- a total of 64 candidates for 14 seats.

Predictions on this thread at 9.00am on the day of the election.

Rejoin UK may be a bit premature?

[robbienicoll]

Jan 30, 2023 17:01:41 GMT kevinf said:

Jan 28, 2023 19:05:00 GMT robbienicoll said:

*snip*

Rejoin UK may be a bit premature?

Oops!

[kevinf]

Bristol
LibDem 43, Lab 27, Green 22, Con 6, Ind 2
North Northamptonshire
LAb 42, Con 32, LibDem 11, Green 9, Reform 6
Torfaen
Ind 38, Lab 29, PC 13, Con 9, Green 7, LD 4

[johnloony]

BRISTOL Hotwells & Harbourside: Grn 32 LD 28 Lab 24 Con 10 Ind 6
NORTH NORTHAMPTONSHIRE Northall: Lab 41 Con 34 LD 10 Grn 9 RefUK 6
TORFAEN Llantarnam: Ind 44 Lab 24 PC 13 Con 11 Grn 8

[No Offence Alan]

BRISTOL, Hotwells & Harbourside : LD 37 Green 33 Lab 18 Con 8 Ind 4

N.NORTHAMPTONSHIRE, Northall : Lab 44 C 28 LD 14 Green 10 RefUK 4

TORFAEN, Llantarnam : Lab 38 Ind 26 PC 21 Green 6 LD 6 C 3

[Tony Otim]

Bristol: LD 35.2; Grn 34.8; Lab 20.8; Con 6.3; Booth 2.9
North Northants: Lab 43.2; Con 36.0; LD 11.3; Grn 6.6; RefUK 2.9
Torfaen: Lab 37.4; O'Connell 24.9; PC 17.7; Grn 8.0; LD 6.7; Con 5.3

[Richard Cromwell]

Northall, North Northamptonshire

LAB	35%
CON	27%
LDEM	16%
GRN	12%
Reform	10%

Hotwells & Harbourside, Bristol City

LDEM	34%
LAB	33%
GRN	29%
CON	3%
IND	1%

Llantarnam, Torfaen

IND	43%
LAB	29%
Plaid Cymru	18%
GRN	9%
LDEM	1%
CON	0%

[andrewp]

Bristol. Hotwells and Harbourside LD 33 Green 30, Lab 29, Con 5, Ind 3
North Northants. Northall. Lab 49, Con 31, LD 11, Green 7, RefUK 2
Torfaen. Llantarnam. Ind 39, Lab 36, PC 14, Con 4, Green 4, LD 3

[casualobserver]

Bristol: Hotwells & Harbourside - G 34, LD 30, Lab 29, C 5, Ind 2
North Northants: Northall - Lab 48, C 35, LD 10, G 5, RefUK 2
Torfaen: Llantarnam - Lab 36, Ind 32, PC 17, G 7, LD 6, C 2

[yellowperil]

Bristol, Hotwells & Harbourside: Con 6, Lab 27, LD 31, GP 33, Ind 3.
North Northants, Northall: Con 32, Lab 45, LD 12, GP 7, RUK 4.
Torfaen, Llantarnam: Con 3, Lab 36, LD 5, GP 6, PC 13, Ind 37.

[manchesterman]

BRISTOL, Hotwells & Harbourside : Green 34, LD 33, Lab 25, Con 5, Ind 3

NORTH NORTHAMPTONSHIRE, Northall : Lab 45, Con 29, LD 11, Green 8, Reform 7

TORFAEN, Llantarnam : Lab 33, Ind 31, PC 16, Green 9, LD 6, Con 5

[Robert Waller]

Bristol. Hotwells and Harbourside: LD 36 Green 26, Lab 29, Con 5, Ind 4

North Northants. Northall: Lab 52, Con 35, LD 6, Green 5, RefUK 2

Torfaen. Llantarnam: Lab 46, Ind 17, PC 10, Con 16, Green 6, LD 5

[iainbhx]

BRISTOL UA: Hotwells & Harbourside - Grn 32 Lab 31 LDm 30 Con 5 Ind 2

NORTH NORTHAMPTONSHIRE UA: Northall - Lab 48 Con 32 Grn 9 LDm 8 Ref 3

TORFAEN UA: Llantarnam - Ind 37 Lab 31 PC 15 Con 8 LDm 6 Grn 3

[rightleaning]

Bristol. Hotwells and Harbourside: LD 34 Green 29, Lab 25, Con 9, Ind 3

North Northants. Northall: Lab 50, Con 32, LD 9, Green 7, RefUK 2

Torfaen. Llantarnam: Lab 46, Ind 23, PC 12, Con 10, Green 6, LD 3

[batman]

almost everybody is predicting defeat for their own team in Bristol.

[andrewp]

Feb 2, 2023 9:51:22 GMT batman said:

almost everybody is predicting defeat for their own team in Bristol.

Natural self expectation management. It’s a very difficult one to call. I’m sure we can all construct a reasonable argument for any of 3 winners. 

[robbienicoll]

14 entries this week, with casualobserver making a return, all on time and correct.

Hotwells and Harbourside, Bristol: 8 Liberal Democrat hold, with casualobserver, iainbhx, johnloony, manchesterman, peterl and yellowperil Green gain.

Northall, North Northamptonshire: 100% Labour gain from Conservative, with majorities ranging from 7% (johnloony) to 24% (peterl).

Llantarnam, Torfaen: 8 Independent (O'Connell) win, with casualobserver, manchesterman, No Offence Alan, Right Leaning, Robert Waller and Tony Otim Labour gain from Independent.

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tNrT27pkgIakFCqUaf2J1aF8BR-GenXz1zahGcj0F5Y/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!